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NASA NTRS1994

DE 1 and Viking observations associated with electron conical distributions

Data from the electron detectors on board the Swedish Viking satellite launched during a period of low solar activity and from the Dynamic Explorer (DE) 1 satellite launched during active solar coditions have been examined for the occurrence and location of electron conical distributions and several conclusions can be drawn. First, we note that most of the best examples of electron conics observed by the V-3 experiment onboard Viking occurred in the afternoon sector in the range of magneitc local time 14 hours less than Magnetic Local Time (MLT) less than 18 hours, at midaltitudes in the range 10,000 km less than h less than 13,500 km, with few occurring in the nightside auroral region, a region poorly sampled at altitudes greater than 5000 km. For the Viking data there is an association of electron conics with upper hybrid waves. DE 1 observations made by the high-altitude plasma instrument (HAPI) indicate that electron conics were observed in the midmorning sector and the late evening sector, and as has been reported earlier, the correlation with upper hybird waves was good. The HAPI did not sample the afternoon sector. The electon conics observed on both satellites occurred in the presence of at least a modest (several kilovolts) potential difference beneath the satellite with a maximum energy that was usually, but not always, equal to or greater than the maximum energy of the electron conics. Two independent sets of observations by DE 1 suggest two distinct production mechanisms for electron conics. Examiniation of DE 1 electric field measurements from the plasma wave instrument during the observation of electron conics show simultaneous parallel oscillations in the frequency range of 0.2 Hz less than f less than 0.5 Hz during one and perhaps two of four events examined, and upper hybrid waves were observed on all four events. In addition, recent observations of '90-deg' electron conics associated with auroral kilometric radiation source regions suggest a perpendicular heating mechanism produced by wave-particle interaction. Such distributions may be observed as electron conics at higher altitudes. These results suggest more than one possible source mechanism may be responsible for electron conics.

Menietti, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Workshop on Mars Telescopic Observations

The Mars Telescopic Observations Workshop, held August 14-15, 1995, at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, was organized and planned with two primary goals in mind: The first goal was to facilitate discussions among and between amateur and professional observers and to create a workshop environment fostering collaborations and comparisons within the Mars observing community. The second goal was to explore the role of continuing telescopic observations of Mars in the upcoming era of increased spacecraft exploration. The 24 papers presented at the workshop described the current NASA plans for Mars exploration over the next decade, current and recent Mars research being performed by professional astronomers, and current and past Mars observations being performed by amateur observers and observing associations. The workshop was divided into short topical sessions concentrating on programmatic overviews, groundbased support of upcoming spacecraft experiments, atmospheric observations, surface observations, modeling and numerical studies, and contributions from amateur astronomers.

Bell, J. F., III↗
NASA NTRS1998

Deep and Monitoring Observations of the Black Hole Candidates 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258

The purpose of this effort was to obtain detailed information on the long term variability of the power spectra and energy spectra of the two Black Hole Candidates (BHCs) and so-called "micro-quasars", 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258. Observations with the pointed instruments on the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) were carried out on a weekly basis for an entire year, in order to observe the extent to which these sources changed on long timescales. The observations also served as a trigger for longer observations carried out under a sister proposal "Target of Opportunity Observations of the Black Hole Candidates 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258". The work done at UCSD by W. Heindl consisted first of monitoring the data from the High Energy X-ray Timing Experiment (HEXTE) to determine when the sources were bright enough to trigger our Target of Opportunity observations. He was then responsible for the reduction and interpretation of the HEXTE data and for contributing to the publication of results of this work. Historically, these objects have been highly variable on long timescales. Observations between 1988 and 1995 found that they tend to spend periods of several months in high and low flux states which differ in luminosity by more than an order of magnitude. In more than 2 years of RXTE observations to date, we have found variability only on the level of tens of percent. Both sources have remained near their historical maximum luminosities during this time. This is a significant change from previous behavior, and indicates that their accretion rates have stabilized in recent years. In addition, their observed spectra have been quite stable.

Heindl, William A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Continuing Studies in Support of Ultraviolet Observations of Planetary Atmospheres

This program was a one-year extension of an earlier Planetary Atmospheres program grant, covering the period 1 August 1996 through 30 September 1997. The grant was for supporting work to complement an active program observing planetary atmospheres with Earth-orbital telescopes, principally the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The recent concentration of this work has been on HST observations of Jupiter's upper atmosphere and aurora, but it has also included observations of Io, serendipitous observations of asteroids, and observations of the velocity structure in the interplanetary medium. The observations of Jupiter have been at vacuum ultraviolet wavelengths, including imaging and spectroscopy of the auroral and airglow emissions. The most recent HST observations have been at the same time as in situ measurements made by the Galileo orbiter instruments, as reflected in the meeting presentations listed below. Concentrated efforts have been applied in this year to the following projects: The analysis of HST WFPC 2 images of Jupiter's aurora, including the Io footprint emissions. We have performed a comparative analysis of the lo footprint locations with two magnetic field models, studied the statistical properties of the apparent dawn auroral storms on Jupiter, and found various other repeated patterns in Jupiter's aurora. Analysis and modeling of airglow and auroral Ly alpha emission line profiles from Jupiter. This has included modeling the aurora] line profiles, including the energy degradation of precipitating charged particles and radiative transfer of the emerging emissions. Jupiter's auroral emission line profile is self-absorbed, since it is produced by an internal source, and the resulting emission with a deep central absorption from the overlying atmosphere permits modeling of the depth of the emissions, plus the motion of the emitting layer with respect to the overlying atmospheric column from the observed Doppler shift of the central absorption. By contrast the airglow emission line, which is dominated by resonant scattering of solar emission, has no central absorption, but displays rapid time variations and broad wings, indicative of a superthermal component (or corona) in Jupiter's upper atmosphere. Modeling of the observed motions of the plumes produced after the impacts of the fragments of Comet S/L-9 with Jupiter in July 1994, from the HST WFPC 2 imaging series.

Clark, John↗
NASA NTRS1998

Relationship of Topside Ionospheric Ion Outflows to Auroral Forms and Precipitation, Plasma Waves, and Convection Observed by Polar

The POLAR satellite often observes upflowing ionospheric ions (UFIs) in and near the aurora] oval on southern perigee (approx. 5000 km altitude) passes. We present the UFI features observed by the thermal ion dynamics experiment (TIDE) and the toroidal imaging mass angle spectrograph (TIMAS) in the dusk-dawn sector under two different geomagnetic activity conditions in order to elicit their relationships with auroral forms, wave emissions, and convection pattern from additional POLAR instruments. During the active interval, the ultraviolet imager (UVI) observed a bright discrete aurora on the duskside after the substorm onset and then observed a small isolated aurora form and diffuse auroras on the dawnside during the recovery phase. The UFIs showed clear conic distributions when the plasma wave instrument (PWI) detected strong broadband wave emissions below approx. 10 kHz, while no significant auroral activities were observed by UVI. At higher latitudes, the low-energy UFI conics gradually changed to the polar wind component with decreasing intensity of the broadband emissions. V-shaped auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) signatures observed above -200 kHz by PWI coincided with the region where the discrete aurora and the UFI beams were detected. The latitude of these features was lower than that of the UFI conics. During the observations of the UFI beams and conics, the lower-frequency fluctuations observed by the electric field instrument were also enhanced, and the convection directions exhibited large fluctuations. It is evident that large electrostatic potential drops produced the precipitating electrons and discrete auroras, the UFI beams, and the AKR, which is also supported by the energetic plasma data from HYDRA. Since the intense broadband emissions were also observed with the UFIs, the ionospheric ions could be energized transversely before or during the parallel acceleration due to the potential drops.

Hirahara, M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1999

Multi-Wavelength Superoutburst Observations of T Leonis

We present results of simultaneous superoutburst observations in the X-ray, Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV), optical, and IR bands of the tremendous outburst amplitude dwarf novae T Leonis. Near peak luminosity, a single blackbody represents a good fit to T Leo's observed continuum in the EUV spectral region, yielding a boundary layer temperature of 71,000 to 97,000K. Inclusion of the longer wavelength observations, UV to the IR, indicates that a blackbody fit is inappropriate. A single temperature fit to only the UV and red-ward data for T Leo works well, but yields a much lower temperature, near 28,000K. Using our own observations and previously obtained EUV, UV and optical (super)outburst observations for the dwarf novae U Gem and SS Cyg, the SU UMa star VW Hyi, and the TOADS, TV Crv, BC UMa, and SW UMa, we find that in all cases, high energy observations yield high temperature, small emitting regions, while fits to UV and red-ward data produce cooler temperatures from much larger emitting regions. These results are consistent with the idea that high energy data provide a direct measurement of the boundary layer while the lower energy data measure a much larger, multi-temperature region, likely to be dominated by the outburst heated inner accretion disk. High energy outburst observations show that the boundary layer temperature decreases with decreasing orbital period and UV outburst observations provide evidence for a missing or weak inner disk in the TOADs. We present a simple model of mass accretion onto the white dwarf during (super)outburst which can account for the observed correlation between temperature.

Howell, Steve B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Relationship of Topside Ionospheric Ion Outflows to Auroral Forms and Precipitations, Plasma Waves, and Convection Observed by POLAR

The POLAR satellite often observes upflowing ionospheric ions (UFls) in and near the auroral oval on southern perigee (approximately 5000 km altitude) passes. We present the UFI features observed by the thermal ion dynamics experiment (TIDE) and the toroidal imaging mass-angle spectrograph (TIMAS) in the dusk-dawn sector under two different geomagnetic activity conditions in order to elicit their relationships with auroral forms, wave emissions, and convection pattern from additional POLAR instruments. During the active interval, the ultraviolet imager (UVI) observed a bright discrete aurora on the dusk side after the substorm onset and then observed a small isolated aurora form and diffuse auroras on the dawn side during the recovery phase. The UFls showed clear conic distributions when the plasma wave instrument (PWI) detected strong broadband wave emissions below approximately 10 kHz, while no significant auroral activities were observed by UVI. At higher latitudes, the low-energy UFI conics gradually changed to the polar wind component with decreasing intensity of the broadband emissions. V-shaped auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) signatures observed above approximately 200 kHz by PWI coincided with the region where the discrete aurora and the UFI beams were detected. The latitude of these features was lower than that of the UFI conics. During the observations of the UFI beams and conics, the lower-frequency fluctuations observed by the electric field instrument (EFI) were also enhanced, and the convection directions exhibited large fluctuations. It is evident that large electrostatic potential drops produced the precipitating electrons and discrete auroras, the UFI beams, and the AKR, which is also supported by the energetic plasma data from HYDRA. Since the intense broadband emissions were also observed with the UFIs. the ionospheric ions could be energized transversely before or during the parallel acceleration due to the potential drops.

Hirahara, M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Coronal Reconstruction using LASCO and UVCS Observations

The main goal of the research described in the original proposal was to develop methods to quantify coronal and inner-heliospheric velocity fields of the 'quiet' solar wind. For this we planned to use several sources of observations:(1) SOHO/UVCS velocity information in the range 1.5-3 Solar Radii obtained from Doppler dimming observations; (2) projected solar wind velocities (into the plane of the sky) obtained from SOHO/ LASCO images (1.1-30 Solar Radii), primarily derived from two-dimensional correlation tracking techniques; (3) Interplanetary scintillation observations of the heliospheric (> 26 Solar Radii) solar wind velocity from the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) in Nagoya, Japan; (4) Ecliptic in situ observations: data for the ecliptic solar wind are available from the MIT and Los Alamos plasma experiments on the Earth-orbiting IMP-8 spacecraft, from the Cellas instrument on SOHO near the LI Lagrange point, and from the WIND spacecraft; (5) Out-of-ecliptic in situ observations: these data are available primarily from the Los Alamos SWOOPS instrument on Ulysses, which passed over the solar north pole in August 1995, about one year prior to the Whole Sun Month period. Where ever possible we planned to use the first Whole Sun Month as the main time period for the analysis, since we expected that for this period it would be easiest to obtain adequate coverage over the extended period of time required to analyze 'quiet' solar wind patterns. Beyond the observations mentioned above (primarily SOHO data) we extended our selection of data to several events identified in the Yohkoh/SXT data base which directly promised to provide us with clues about the connection between the slow solar wind observed by IPS in the inner heliosphere and their sources in the low corona, in particular active regions. We also obtained valuable results using SWOOPS ill situ observations from the pole-to-pole passage of Ulysses in a comparison with solar wind velocities derived from a tomographic reconstruction of Nagoya IPS observations.

Hick, P. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Linking Science Analysis with Observation Planning: A Full Circle Data Lifecycle

A clear goal of the Virtual Observatory (VO) is to enable new science through analysis of integrated astronomical archives. An additional and powerful possibility of the VO is to link and integrate these new analyses with planning of new observations. By providing tools that can be used for observation planning in the VO, the VO will allow the data lifecycle to come full circle: from theory to observations to data and back around to new theories and new observations. The Scientist's Expert Assistant (SEA) Simulation Facility (SSF) is working to combine the ability to access existing archives with the ability to model and visualize new observations. Integrating the two will allow astronomers to better use the integrated archives of the VO to plan and predict the success of potential new observations. The full circle lifecycle enabled by SEA can allow astronomers to make substantial leaps in the quality of data and science returns on new observations. Our paper will examine the exciting potential of integrating archival analysis with new observation planning, such as performing data calibration analysis on archival images and using that analysis to predict the success of new observations, or performing dynamic signal-to-noise analysis combining historical results with modeling of new instruments or targets. We will also describe how the development of the SSF is progressing and what has been its successes and challenges.

Jones, Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS2001

Linking Science Analysis with Observation Planning: A Full Circle Data Lifecycle

A clear goal of the Virtual Observatory (VO) is to enable new science through analysis of integrated astronomical archives. An additional and powerful possibility of the VO is to link and integrate these new analyses with planning of new observations. By providing tools that can be used for observation planning in the VO, the VO will allow the data lifecycle to come full circle: from theory to observations to data and back around to new theories and new observations. The Scientist's Expert Assistant (SEA) Simulation Facility (SSF) is working to combine the ability to access existing archives with the ability to model and visualize new observations. Integrating the two will allow astronomers to better use the integrated archives of the VO to plan and predict the success of potential new observations more efficiently, The full circle lifecycle enabled by SEA can allow astronomers to make substantial leaps in the quality of data and science returns on new observations. Our paper examines the exciting potential of integrating archival analysis with new observation planning, such as performing data calibration analysis on archival images and using that analysis to predict the success of new observations, or performing dynamic signal-to-noise analysis combining historical results with modeling of new instruments or targets. We will also describe how the development of the SSF is progressing and what have been its successes and challenges.

Grosvenor, Sandy↗
NASA NTRS2001

Chandra ACIS Observations of Jovian X-Ray Emission

On November 25 and 26, 1999, the Chandra X-ray spacecraft conducted a set of four 19,000 sec observations of Jupiter. The ACIS-S instrument configuration was used for its good low energy efficiency and spatial resolution. An anomalous response was obtained which was subsequently attributed to strong jovian infrared radiation penetrating the detector and piling up spurious events across the entire X-ray range. However, the pre-observation establishment of an offsetting bias field has allowed the recovery of data from that portion of Jupiter's disc which remained within the elevated portion of the bias field during the observation. This ranges from fewer than 3000 sec to the entire observing time for about 10% of the planet. Auroral emission is seen near both poles in each observation. The northern aurora ia overall more intense than the southern, consistent with prior Einstein and ROSAT Observatory results. The southern aurora shows more modulation with Jupiter's rotation than the northern. Spatial resolution has been improved by at least a factor of two over prior measurements but convincing evidence of structure has not been seen. Lower latitude emission, first observed by ROSAT, is confirmed with flux levels averaging more than a factor of five below peak auroral values. Pronounced variation in the observed emission has occurred over the observing period. The spectral response extends from 0.24 keV, below which noise dominates, to about 1.2 keV. For all four observations the spectrum is clearly enhanced between 0.45 and 0.85 keV. This is apparently unequivocal evidence that Jupiter's X-ray emission is the result of oxygen and perhaps sulfur ions precipitating into the planet's atmosphere, where they undergo charge exchange interactions. The identification of specific transitions lines in the spectrum is among the ongoing efforts. A bremsstrahlung component has not yet been identified.

Garmire, Gordon↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. The goal of the paper is to explore the concept of using a sensor-web of satellites to observe the global water cycle. The details of the required measurements and observation systems are therefore only an initial approach and will undergo future refinement, as their details will be highly important. Key elements include observation and evaluation of all components of the water cycle in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers-and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. For each component of the water cycle that must be observed, the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of measurement are estimated, along with the some of the frequencies that have been used for active and passive microwave observations of the quantities. The suggested types of microwave observations are based on the heritage for such measurements, and some aspects of the recent heritage of these measurement algorithms are listed. The observational requirements are based on present observational systems, as modified by expectations for future needs. Approaches to the development of space systems for measuring the global water cycle can be based on these observational requirements.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improved Estimate of Phobos Secular Acceleration from MOLA Observations

We report on new observations of the orbital position of Phobos, and use them to obtain a new and improved estimate of the rate of secular acceleration in longitude due to tidal dissipation within Mars. Phobos is the inner-most natural satellite of Mars, and one of the few natural satellites in the solar system with orbital period shorter than the rotation period of its primary. As a result, any departure from a perfect elastic response by Mars in the tides raised on it by Phobos will cause a transfer of angular momentum from the orbit of Phobos to the spin of Mars. Since its discovery in 1877, Phobos has completed over 145,500 orbits, and has one of the best studied orbits in the solar system, with over 6000 earth-based astrometric observations, and over 300 spacecraft observations. As early as 1945, Sharpless noted that there is a secular acceleration in mean longitude, with rate (1.88 + 0.25) 10(exp -3) degrees per square year. In preparation for the 1989 Russian spacecraft mission to Phobos, considerable work was done compiling past observations, and refining the orbital model. All of the published estimates from that era are in good agreement. A typical solution (Jacobson et al., 1989) yields (1.249 + 0.018) 10(exp -3) degrees per square year. The MOLA instrument on MGS is a laser altimeter, and was designed to measure the topography of Mars. However, it has also been used to make observations of the position of Phobos. In 1998, a direct range measurement was made, which indicated that Phobos was slightly ahead of the predicted position. The MOLA detector views the surface of Mars in a narrow field of view, at 1064 nanometer wavelength, and can detect shadows cast by Phobos on the surface of Mars. We have found 15 such serendipitous shadow transit events over the interval from xx to xx, and all of them show Phobos to be ahead of schedule, and getting progressively farther ahead of the predicted position. In contrast, the cross-track positions are quite close to the predicted values. Assuming that the along-track discrepancy is small enough that we can linearize the corrections, we model the mean orbital longitude as a quadratic function of time, and solve for corrections to the constant, linear, and quadratic terms. The time span of the recent observations is insufficient to properly resolve this issue alone, but when the 127 years of prior observations are added, we find a solution which reduces misfit to the new observations considerably, and makes no significant change to the fit to earlier observations. Our estimate for the secular acceleration term is (1.367 + 0.006) degrees per square year. The corresponding rate of energy dissipation is 3.34 MW. From a geophysical perspective, a more interesting parameter than the secular acceleration itself is the tidal lag angle, or tidal quality factor Q, for Mars. Unfortunately, the limiting error source in that determination is remaining uncertainty in the tidal Love numbers at harmonic degrees 2,3, and even 4. Until those parameters are better constrained, improvement in the orbital model of Phobos will not provide corresponding benefits for understanding the interior of Mars.

Bills, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2009

CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations

Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

Eckman, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service office to initialize their locally run mesoscale models. SMG also uses the observations to support shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttie Landing Facility. Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS and SMG. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a modeling study to determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters as input to their forecasts. To accomplish this, the AMU performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (NRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB observations. The AMU assessed the accuracy of model output by comparing peak wind forecasts with operationally significant wind advisory and warning criteria forecast by the 45 WS. To assess model performance when initialized with and without some of the wind tower and XMR RAOB observations, the AMU conducted a subjective analysis by displaying model wind forecasts graphically with the observations overlaid for comparison and they conducted an objective analysis by comparing the maximum peak wind forecast to the maximum peak wind observed within the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Data were collected for twelve warm season cases and eight cool season cases from June - September 2007 and November - January 2008, respectively. For each case chosen, the 45 WS must have issued a wind advisory or warning for the KSC/CCAFS area and the KSC/CCAFS wind towers must have recorded significant wind events, or winds greater than 18 kt.

Watson, Leela R.↗