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At least 379 records · Page 21

Recent Progress on the VASIMR Engine

The development of the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR) was initiated in the late 1970s to address a critical requirement for fast, high-power interplanetary space transportation. Its high-power and electrodeless design arises from the use of radio frequency (RF) waves to create and accelerate plasma in a magnetic nozzle. While not being a fusion rocket, it borrows heavily from that technology and takes advantage of the natural topology of open-ended magnetic systems. In addition the system lends itself well for Constant Power Throttling (CPT,) an important ability to vary thrust and specific impulse, over a wide operational range, while maintaining maximum power. This allows in-flight mission-optimization of thrust and specific impulse to enhance performance and reduce trip time. A NASA-led, research team, involving industry, academia and government facilities is pursuing the development of this concept in the United States. The technology can be validated, in the near term, in venues such as the International Space Station, where it can also serve as both a drag compensation device and a plasma contactor for the orbital facility. Recent advances in the development of this technology involve the demonstration of efficient propellant utilization in a flowing helicon plasma discharge as well as the experimental verification of single-pass ion acceleration, as predicted by theory I, by coupling RF power to the plasma through ion cyclotron resonance. This paper outlines these and other progress in our understanding of VASIMR physics and presents the concepts for its potential application in NASA's new vision of space exploration.

Chang-Diaz, F. R.↗

ATD-2 Surface Scheduling and Metering Concept

This presentation describes the concept of ATD-2 tactical surface scheduling and metering. The concept is composed of several elements, including data exchange and integration; surface modeling; surface scheduling; and surface metering. The presentation explains each of the elements. Surface metering is implemented to balance demand and capacity• When surface metering is on, target times from surface scheduler areconverted to advisories for throttling demand• Through the scheduling process, flights with CTOTs will not get addedmetering delay (avoids potential for ‘double delay’)• Carriers can designate certain flights as exempt from metering holds• Demand throttle in Phase 1 at CLT is through advisories sent to rampcontrollers for pushback instructions to the flight deck– Push now– Hold for an advised period of time (in minutes)• Principles of surface metering can be more generally applied to otherairports in the NAS to throttle demand via spot-release times (TMATs Strong focus on optimal use of airport resources• Flexibility enables stakeholders to vary the amount of delay theywould like transferred to gate• Addresses practical aspects of executing surface metering in aturbulent real world environment• Algorithms designed for both short term demand/capacityimbalances (banks) or sustained metering situations• Leverage automation to enable surface metering capability withoutrequiring additional positions• Represents first step in Tactical/Strategic fusion• Provides longer look-ahead calculations to enable analysis ofstrategic surface metering potential usage

Departure↗

Efficient screening of rare large pit anomalies on polished surfaces using a minimalist sampling scheme

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has made significant strides in generating clean energy through its inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. These experiments rely on high-density carbon (HDC) coated shells to encapsulate the fusion fuel. The success of these experiments is heavily dependent on the surface quality of these shells, as even minor imperfections, such as deep pits, can negatively impact fusion yield. Ensuring the required smoothness involves an extensive surface-finishing process that spans approximately 20 stages, making it both time-intensive and resource-demanding. A critical challenge in this process is the need for high-resolution scans to detect rare deep pits, which can be costly and impractical if performed on every shell. This highlights the necessity of developing more efficient scanning methods to optimize time and cost without compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach that employs the multivariate Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality to provide a probabilistic upper bound on the error in estimating pit distribution characteristics via a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). This error bound enables efficient and reliable estimation of pit distribution characteristics at a specified statistical confidence level using a minimal number of surface scans. The integrated DKW-KDE approach was validated through surface-finishing experiments across two batches of HDC-coated shells, demonstrating consistent and robust performance across multiple stages of the surface-finishing experiments. The validation studies suggest that the integrated DKW-KDE approach achieves comparable accuracy in estimating the risk of deleterious large pits with six scans, thus conserving time and resources. Further evaluations show that performance remains consistent across batches and over multiple polishing stages. In conclusion, based on these findings, one can leverage the minimal-scan insights to strategically improve the bottleneck inspection process, thus enhancing the productivity and quality of shell polishing and similar challenging manufacturing processes.

Inertial confinement fusion↗

Project Title: Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting NonPlanar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies

This is the final report for the project “Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting Non- Planar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies”, funded by DOE, and performed by Type One Energy from September, 2020, to March 2024 involving the Fusion Technology Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to design and fabricate the first non-planar HTS (REBCO) coil for a high-field stellarator based on the SPARC tokamak’s VIPER cable concept. Stellarators at high fields make high-temperature superconducting magnets necessary for a compact fusion device. But the asymmetric and non-planar nature of its components, especially the magnets make it difficult for scalable producibility. To address these challenges, two promising technologies have emerged: advanced manufacturing (AM) for the supporting plates for forming the magnets, and high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables inside the plates. AM has advanced enough to produce stellarator components with the necessary geometric complexity, size, and the precision, leading to potentially significant reductions in production time, cost, and waste. The cost of HTS tape has decreased dramatically, and progress in HTS planar magnet development has reached a point where it can be proposed for application to complex 3D non-planar magnets. The main objective of this project is to develop, demonstrate and pre-commercialize a novel, non-planar HTS coil shape that remains superconducting to achieve production scalable reductions in time and cost and performance. The proposed technology is based on the novel concept of a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil assembly. This project focuses on the design, fabrication, material optimization of cable design, and validation and demonstration of the high current carrying capability of superconducting magnets and their support in a complex 3D shape needed for application to stellarator magnetic plasma confinement. The specific objectives of this research program include: (1) The successful application of metal AM to build a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil, (2) An HTS cable and cross-section design that can conform to the required nonplanar coil shape (bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and remains superconducting at an engineering current density of 1.35 kA/cm 2 at 77 K and 1 tesla at the conductor (5 kA in the cable). To achieve the above challenging goals, we have formed a multidisciplinary research team consisting of members from Type One Energy and UW-Madison, MIT PSFC and CFS with complementary skills and strong facilities. The team worked collaboratively on fundamental and applied research on the following three major technical areas: (1) Design, fabrication, and optimization of non-planar HTS Cable The ultimate goal of the project is to determine if commercial REBCO tapes and additive manufacturing can be used to fabricate high field (≥ 10T) non-planar coils with tight bending radii (≃ 100mm) and with a degradation of the critical current (Ic) smaller than 20% with respect to the expected performance. We started with shorter length cable to evaluate the scalability of the production process and eventually reached multiple turns for higher magnetic fields. Our findings suggest that a stellarator coil system of a relevant size, characterized by its asymmetric and non-planar components, can be fabricated using a formed cable in plate method. This system can be simulated using a large-scale modeling approach. The use of hybrid modeling 3 techniques will be pivotal in reducing the complexity of the model and in assessing expected performance in designs. (2) Modeling and simulation of the non-planar HTS Cable Multiphysics simulations are performed using the commercial software and are carried out in self-field conditions, involving 2D and 3D models and twisted around one slot of twist-pitched VIPER cable. Multiphysics simulations are mainly focused on the coil for the critical current evaluation, the magnetic field map, self-Lorentz forces and mechanical, and magnetothermal behavior and the quench dynamics. The detailed model and prediction of the superconducting performance of a stellarator-relevant demonstration cable from numerical simulations supports the results from the actual testing backing the results. A detailed description and results are provided in the later sections. (3) Design, fabrication, and optimization of support for the non-planar HTS Cable The team developed an additive manufactured (AM) coil positioning plate that formed into the required non-planar geometry (with bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and to acceptable tolerances required for a stellarator magnet: (+0.25-mm from ideal on dimensions of coil positioning plates and up to +1-mm from ideal for position of wound coil). The plate materials is also included in this selection process from fabrication and 3D printing perspective and commensurate with eventual application to a fusion reactor. From the cost effectiveness point of view, the HTS coil and plate has the potential to cost less than that made in conventional methods with less waste (<75% waste) reducing time (<50%) and cost (<50%), especially as the AM field matures. The application of advanced manufacturing in the construction of the support plates will also lead to cost reduction, as the cables can be easily replaced, thereby making the assembly modular. With such high primary cost and time savings, high current densities and magnetic field, the funded R&D work has validated the designs, proven the feasibility, and characterized the performance of the HTS coil and plate assembly, paving the way for a relevant-size stellarator coil system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Single-shot in-line x-ray phase-contrast imaging of void-shockwave interactions in fusion energy materials

Recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, specifically the report of reactions exceeding scientific breakeven at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), highlight the potential of inertial fusion energy (IFE) as a sustainable and virtually limitless energy source. However, further progress in IFE requires characterization of defects in ablator materials and how they affect fuel capsule compression. Voids within the ablator can degrade energy yield, but their impact on the density distribution has primarily been studied through simulations, with limited high-resolution experimental validation. To address this, we used the x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) at the matter in extreme conditions (MECs) instrument at the Linac coherent light source (LCLS) to capture 2D x-ray phase-contrast (XPC) images of a void-bearing sample with a composition similar to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablators. By driving a compressive shockwave through the sample using MEC's long-pulse laser system, we analyzed how voids influence shockwave propagation and density distribution during compression. To quantify this impact, we extracted phase information using two phase retrieval algorithms. First, we applied the contrast transfer function (CTF) method, paired with Tikhonov regularization and a fast optimization approach to generate an initial phase estimate. We then refined the result using a projected gradient descent (PGD) method that works directly with the sample's refractive index. Comparing these results with radiation adaptive grid Eulerian (xRAGE) radiation hydrodynamic simulations enables identification of model validation needs or improvements. By calculating phase maps in situ, it becomes possible to reconstruct areal density maps, improving understanding of laser-capsule interactions and advancing IFE research.

Hodge, D. S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, ↗

Characterization of Si particles in additively manufactured AlSi10Mg using synchrotron transmission X-ray nanotomography

In AlSi10Mg samples manufactured by Laser Powder Bed Fusion, distinguishing the Si eutectic network/Si particles from the Al matrix by X-ray imaging is challenging due to the low absorption contrast between the Al and Si. This work investigates the possibility of overcoming this obstacle in synchrotron transmission X-ray microscopy. Effects of both different defocusing conditions and X-ray beam energies are evaluated and optimal conditions are identified for imaging a sample annealed post-print for 2h at 520°C. It is shown that both large particles (e.g. 4μm) and particles as small as 0.5 μm, can be imaged with reasonable precision in 3D non-destructively.

Defer, M.↗

Project Report: Reducing Color Rivalry in Imagery for Conjugated Multiple Bandpass Filter Based Stereo Endoscopy

A pair of conjugated multiple bandpass filters (CMBF) can be used to create spatially separated pupils in a traditional lens and imaging sensor system allowing for the passive capture of stereo video. This method is especially useful for surgical endoscopy where smaller cameras are needed to provide ample room for manipulating tools while also granting improved visualizations of scene depth. The significant issue in this process is that, due to the complimentary nature of the filters, the colors seen through each filter do not match each other, and also differ from colors as seen under a white illumination source. A color correction model was implemented that included optimized filter selection, such that the degree of necessary post-processing correction was minimized, and a chromatic adaptation transformation that attempted to fix the imaged colors tristimulus indices based on the principle of color constancy. Due to fabrication constraints, only dual bandpass filters were feasible. The theoretical average color error after correction between these filters was still above the fusion limit meaning that rivalry conditions are possible during viewing. This error can be minimized further by designing the filters for a subset of colors corresponding to specific working environments.

conjugated multiple bandpass filters (CMBF)↗

A Parameter Estimation Scheme for Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) Algorithm Used in Precipitation Data Fusion

A new approach is presented in this paper to effectively obtain parameter estimations for the Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) algorithm. This new approach has demonstrated promising potentials in deriving better data products based on data of different spatial scales and precisions. Our new approach employs a multi-objective (MO) parameter estimation scheme (called MO scheme hereafter), rather than using the conventional maximum likelihood scheme (called ML scheme) to estimate the MKS parameters. Unlike the ML scheme, the MO scheme is not simply built on strict statistical assumptions related to prediction errors and observation errors, rather, it directly associates the fused data of multiple scales with multiple objective functions in searching best parameter estimations for MKS through optimization. In the MO scheme, objective functions are defined to facilitate consistency among the fused data at multiscales and the input data at their original scales in terms of spatial patterns and magnitudes. The new approach is evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment and a series of comparison analyses using synthetic precipitation data. Our results show that the MKS fused precipitation performs better using the MO scheme than that using the ML scheme. Particularly, improvements are significant compared to that using the ML scheme for the fused precipitation associated with fine spatial resolutions. This is mainly due to having more criteria and constraints involved in the MO scheme than those included in the ML scheme. The weakness of the original ML scheme that blindly puts more weights onto the data associated with finer resolutions is overcome in our new approach.

multiscale↗

Efficient ECCD non-inductive plasma current start-up, ramp-up, and sustainment for an ST fusion reactor

The elimination of the need for an Ohmic heating solenoid may be the most impactful design driver for the realization of economical compact fusion tokamak reactor systems. However, this would require fully non-inductive start-up and current ramp-up from zero plasma current and low electron temperature of sub-keV to the full plasma current of ~10–15 MA at 20–30 keV electron temperature. To address this challenge, an efficient solenoid-free start-up and ramp-up scenario utilizing a low-field-side-launched extraordinary mode at the fundamental electron cyclotron harmonic frequency (X–I) is proposed, which has more than two orders of magnitude higher electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) efficiency than the conventional ECCD for the sub-keV start-up regime. A time dependent model was developed to simulate the start-up scenarios. For the Spherical Tokamak Advanced Reactor (STAR) (Menard et al 2023 Next-Step Low-Aspect-Ratio Tokamak Design Studies (IAEA)), it was found that to fully non-inductively ramp-up to 15 MA, it would take about 25 MW of EC power at 170 GHz. Because of the relatively large plasma volume of STAR, radiation losses must be considered. It is important to make sure that high Z impurities are kept sufficiently low during the early current start-up phase where the temperature is sub-keV range. Since the initial current ramp up takes place at a factor of ten lower density compared to the sustained regimes, it is important to transition into a higher bootstrap fraction discharge at lower density to minimize the ECCD power requirement during the densification. For the sustainment phase an array of eight gyrotron launchers with a total of about 60 MW of fundamental O-mode was found to be sufficient to provide the required axis-peaked external current drive. High efficiencies between 19–57 kA MW –1 were found with optimal aiming, and these were resilient to small changes in aiming angles and density and temperature profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

FSW Implementation on the Space Shuttle's External Tank

The Friction Stir Welding process developed by The Welding Institute (TWI) has found application throughout the transportation industry. This technique has proven to be a viable joining process for aluminum alloys, producing virtually defect free welds with improved mechanical properties as compared to conventional fusion welding. Lockheed Martin Space Systems - Michoud Operations has been developing this technology for application on aluminum 2219 and 2195 cryogenic tankage since 1995. This effort will come to fruition with implementation on the longitudinal welds of the External Fuel Tank (ET) of the Shuttle. To this end, sub-and full-scale demonstration programs coupled with process development and optimization have been complete. Full size ET tool has been designed, fabricated and are being installed at the Michoud Assembly Facility. Upon completion of the tooling certification and materials allowables testing, production will commence. This implementation will result in increased reliability and safety of flight for the Shuttle.

Hartley, Paula J.↗

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage (FOD) Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James↗

Correlation between microstructure and residual stress formation in friction stir welded armor steels characterized by neutron diffraction

Friction stir welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process that minimizes the heat-affected zone (HAZ) compared with fusion-based arc welding, making it well suited for joining martensitic armor steels where hardness and ballistic resistance are critical. This study investigates residual stress formation in three defect-free FSW butt-joint configurations relevant to armored-vehicle fabrication: similar rolled homogeneous armor (RHA–RHA, Case 1), similar high-hardness armor (HHA–HHA, Case 2), and dissimilar HHA–RHA (Case 3) joints produced under temperature-controlled conditions (770 °C). Neutron diffraction was employed to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of residual stresses in the longitudinal, transverse, and normal directions and to correlate them with weld microstructure and hardness. Tensile residual stresses were concentrated in the softened HAZ, reaching approximately 300 MPa for Case 2 and 400 MPa for Case 1 (≈50–70 % of the base-metal yield strength; ∼581 MPa for RHA and ∼566 MPa for HHA), while compressive residual stresses dominated the stir zone. The spatial extent of tensile stresses scaled with the width of the softened HAZ, which was largest in the dissimilar HHA–RHA joint and smallest in the HHA–HHA joint. Full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM) analysis revealed low microstrain in overtempered HAZ regions and high microstrain in the stir zone associated with severe plastic deformation and fresh martensite formation. This work demonstrates that residual stress evolution in FSW of martensitic armor steels is governed not primarily by peak temperature or thermal contraction, as inferred from fusion-welding analogies, but by the competition between transformation-induced volumetric expansion and tempering-induced stress relaxation. The relative dominance of these mechanisms is shown to depend on alloy hardenability and local thermal history, leading to more extensive HAZ softening and broader tensile stress regions in the lower-hardenability RHA steel. These findings establish a transferable mechanistic framework for optimizing solid-state joining strategies in high-strength steels and other transformation-hardening alloys beyond armor applications.

Friction stir welding↗

AMAROK: A Radio Frequency Development Platform for High-Power, Full-Scale Positive Ion Sources for DIII-D Neutral Beam Injectors

Next-generation neutral beam injection (NBI) systems demand RF ion sources capable of efficiently coupling >120 kW at 2–4-MHz frequencies, yet existing designs face voltage standoff and impedance-matching challenges. To address this, the advanced multicoil antenna for RF operations at kilowatts (AMAROK) was developed as a high-power RF inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source delivering up to 200 kW in the 2–4-MHz range via four phase-controlled generators for flexible power sharing. Two antenna designs—a single-strap multiturn (MT) and a multistrap single-turn (ST) design—were evaluated to optimize resonance, impedance matching, and power coupling across plasma loads. Here, a semi-analytical self-resonant frequency (SRF) model, validated experimentally, predicts resonance trends for arbitrary turn counts and tubing diameters, enabling rapid antenna optimization. Strap-to-strap mutual inductance in the ST configuration showed strong spatial dependence, guiding generator operation and total load inductance. These insights informed a custom π -topology matching network, achieving stable impedance matching over a wide range of plasma-driven loads. Collectively, these results position AMAROK as a versatile testbed for advancing high-power RF source technology in fusion NBI applications.

DIII-D↗

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage "FOD" Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/ health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite-element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James A.↗

In-Situ Alloying of GRCop-42 via Additive Manufacturing: Precipitate Analysis

GRCop-42, a Cu-4at% Cr-2at% Nb alloy, was designed as a high temperature, high strength, high heat flux material for rocket engine combustion chamber liners by NASA Glenn Research Center. In situ alloying of GRCop-42 (ISGRCop-42) using powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) takes elemental powders of Cu, Cr, and Nb to be introduced into the PBF environment and develop the GRCop alloy while simultaneously building an AM component. Elemental powders were milled together prior to printing in an effort to facilitate the alloying process. Success of the in situ alloying process may provide lower cost, faster lead times, alloying optimization, and more design freedom in the development of regeneratively-cooled rocket propulsion systems. Evaluation of the ISGRCop-42 was conducted using a phase extraction procedure to isolate the Cr2Nb precipitates from the pure Cu matrix. The isolated precipitates were then examined using x-ray powder diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy dispersion spectroscopy (EDS). It was found that ISGRCop-42 successfully and repeatedly formed Cr2Nb at a yield as high as 89% of potential Cr2Nb. Further, it was identified that the preparation of the powder was the most influential factor in alloying success, and the second most influential factor was the laser power.

In Situ alloying↗

Human Factors Research Needs for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) Design: Enabling the NASA “Sky for All” Future Airspace Vision

Integrated safety management will be paramount for safely enabling the envisioned transformations of the future National Airspace System. Addressing the increasing need for advanced data analytics and fusion of aviation safety data, managed by human decision-makers, is essential for realizing the vision. The proposal, if accepted, will discuss safety management system challenges and how the concept of In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems addresses the need. It will also discuss human factors challenges involved in future integrated safety management, including trust, over-reliance, human-optimized data visualization, human-autonomy teaming, training, communication and dissemination of data, situation awareness, task load, and accountability.

Lawrence J Prinzel III↗

Enabling the broader adoption of fusion simulation on complex geometry

This project addressed a key barrier to advanced fusion and nuclear simulation: the difficulty of performing high-fidelity Monte Carlo neutronics directly on complex, real-world CAD geometry. Traditional workflows require engineers to rebuild CAD models as simplified constructive solid geometry, a time-consuming and error-prone process that limits design iteration and broader adoption of simulation tools. The goal of this Phase I SBIR was to make CAD-based neutronics practical, accessible, and robust for industrial and research users. During the project, Coreform significantly enhanced the Direct Accelerated Geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) workflow and fully integrated it into Coreform Cubit as a first-class capability. Major achievements include optimized material assignment and surface meshing workflows, substantial performance improvements to geometry imprinting and preparation, native export of DAGMC models, and new visualization tools to support OpenMC source definition and lost-particle debugging. Coreform also expanded Cubit’s capabilities as a full OpenMC preprocessor, including the ability to convert OpenMC constructive solid geometry models back into CAD for visualization, multiphysics coupling, and debugging. In collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory, the project delivered comprehensive new DAGMC documentation and training materials, transforming DAGMC from a research-oriented tool into a production-ready workflow. Results were disseminated through tutorials, conference training, and multiple well-attended webinars demonstrating integrated CAD-based neutronics and multiphysics workflows. Overall, this project demonstrated that high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations can be performed directly on complex CAD geometry, reducing setup time, improving usability, and enabling faster, more informed design decisions for fusion and nuclear energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Underlying Fundamentals of Kalman Filtering for River Network Modeling

The grand challenge of producing hydrometeorological estimates every time and everywhere has motivated the fusion of sparse observations with dense numerical models, with a particular interest on discharge in river modeling. Ensemble methods are largely preferred as they enable the estimation of error properties, but at the expense of computational load and generally with underestimations. These imperfect stochastic estimates motivate the use of correction methods, that is, error localization and inflation, although the physical justifications for their optimality are limited. The purpose of this study is to use one of the simplest forms of data assimilation when applied to river modeling and reveal the underlying mechanisms impacting its performance. Our framework based on assimilating daily averaged in situ discharge measurements to correct daily averaged runoff was tested over a 4-yr case study of two rivers in Texas. Results show that under optimal conditions of inflation and localization, discharge simulations are consistently improved such that the mean values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency are enhanced from211.32 to 0.55 at observed gauges and from212.24 to21.10 at validation gauges. Yet, parameters controlling the inflation and the localization have a large impact on the performance. Further investigations of these sensitivities showed that optimal inflation occurs when compensating exactly for discrepancies in the magnitude of errors while optimal localization matches the distance traveled during one assimilation window. These results may be applicable to more advanced data assimilation methods as well as for larger applications motivated by upcoming river-observing satellite missions, such as NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission.

Streamflow↗