The GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting and Data Assimilation System
The following oralvisual presentation focused on an overview of GEOS-5 activities in relation to Aerosol forecasting and field campaigns, as well as Aerosol Reanalysis and OSSEs.
GEOS-5↗
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ISSARS Aerosol Database : an Incorporation of Atmospheric Particles into a Universal Tool to Simulate Remote Sensing Instruments
The Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (ISSARS) entered its third and final year of development with an overall goal of providing a unified tool to simulate active and passive space borne atmospheric remote sensing instruments. These simulations focus on the atmosphere ranging from UV to microwaves. ISSARS handles all assumptions and uses various models on scattering and microphysics to fill the gaps left unspecified by the atmospheric models to create each instrument's measurements. This will help benefit mission design and reduce mission cost, create efficient implementation of multi-instrument/platform Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), and improve existing models as well as new advanced models in development. In this effort, various aerosol particles are incorporated into the system, and a simulation of input wavelength and spectral refractive indices related to each spherical test particle(s) generate its scattering properties and phase functions. These atmospheric particles being integrated into the system comprise the ones observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer(MISR) and by the Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager(MSPI). In addition, a complex scattering database generated by Prof. Ping Yang (Texas A&M) is also incorporated into this aerosol database. Future development with a radiative transfer code will generate a series of results that can be validated with results obtained by the MISR and MSPI instruments; nevertheless, test cases are simulated to determine the validity of various plugin libraries used to determine or gather the scattering properties of particles studied by MISR and MSPI, or within the Single-scattering properties of tri-axial ellipsoidal mineral dust particles database created by Prof. Ping Yang.
Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote ↗
Retrieved Products from Simulated Hyperspectral Observations of a Hurricane
Retrievals were run using the AIRS Science Team Version-6 AIRS Only retrieval algorithm, which generates a Neural-Net first guess (T(sub s))(sup 0), (T(p))(sup 0), and (q(p))(sup 0) as a function of observed AIRS radiances. AIRS Science Team Neural-Net coefficients performed very well beneath 300 mb using the simulated radiances. This means the simulated radiances are very realistic. First guess and retrieved values of T(p) above 300 mb were biased cold, but both represented the model spatial structure very well. QC'd T(p) and q(p) retrievals for all experiments had similar accuracies compared to their own truth fields, and were roughly consistent with results obtained using real data. Spatial coverage of retrievals, as well as the representativeness of the spatial structure of the storm, improved dramatically with decreasing size of the instrument's FOV. We sent QC'd values of T(p) and q(p) to Bob Atlas at AOML for use as input to OSSE Data Assimilation experiments.
CrIS ATMS↗
Retrieved Products from Simulated Hyperspectral Observations of a Hurricane
Demonstrate via Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) the potential utility of flying high spatial resolution AIRS class IR sounders on future LEO and GEO missions.The study simulates and analyzes radiances for 3 sounders with AIRS spectral and radiometric properties on different orbits with different spatial resolutions: 1) Control run 13 kilometers AIRS spatial resolution at nadir on LEO in Aqua orbit; 2) 2 kilometer spatial resolution LEO sounder at nadir ARIES; 3) 5 kilometers spatial resolution sounder on a GEO orbit, radiances simulated every 72 minutes.
Spatial Resolution↗
A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability
The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.
Science Data Processing↗
NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept
An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.
Carvalho, David↗
The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals
Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.
Biosphere↗
NASA's GMAO Atmospheric Motion Vectors Simulator: Description and Application to the MISTiC Winds Concept
An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.
Carvalho, David↗
Adjoint Estimation of Observation Impact Explored with an Observing System Simulation Experiment
In an Observing System Simulation Experiment, the full, true state of the simulated atmosphere is known. This knowledge allows the direct calculation of analysis and forecast errors, and also may be used in conjunction with an adjoint tool to calculate metrics that are unachievable in the real world. For example, the errors that result from the use of the analysis state as verification when running adjoint calculations of observation impact on a forecast can be quantified. The adjoint itself can also be used to operate on the analysis state rather than on the forecast state. Results from these and other adjoint experiments using the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework will be presented.
Prive, Nikki↗
Observing System Simulation Experiments
Observing System Simulation Experiments can be powerful tools for evaluating and exploring both the behavior of data assimilation systems and the potential impacts of future observing systems. With great power comes great responsibility - given a pure modeling framework, how can we be sure our results are meaningful? The challenges and pitfalls of OSSE calibration and validation will be addressed, as well as issues of incestuousness, selection of appropriate metrics, and experiment design. The use of idealized observational networks to investigate theoretical ideas in a fully complex modeling framework will also be discussed.
Prive, Nikki↗
Observing System Simulation Experiments
A very brief overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments for numerical weather prediction, including the Nature Run, synthetic observations, and calibration/validation of the OSSE framework will be given.
Prive, Nikki↗
CRTM Support to GMAO: Validation and Coefficient Generation
Radiative transfer (RT) models play a very critical role in assimilating satellite radiances into NWP models. Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed by Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation is widely used in the U.S. as the forward operator for the assimilation of microwave and infrared satellite radiances. This work shows an snapshot of the GMAO radiative transfer modeling activities to advance the assimilation of satellite radiances as well as to facilitate the GMAO activities on Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE).
CRTM↗
A Geostationary Instrument Simulator for Aerosol Observing System Simulation Experiments
In the near future, there will be several new instruments measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary orbit over North America, East Asia, and Europe. This constellation of satellites will provide high resolution, time resolved measurements of trace gases and aerosols for monitoring air quality and tracking pollution sources. This paper describes a detailed, fast, and accurate (less than 1.0% uncertainty) method for calculating synthetic top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiances from a global simulation with a mesoscale free running model, the GEOS-5 Nature Run, for remote sensing instruments in geostationary orbit that measure in the ultraviolet-visible spectral range (UV-Vis). Generating these synthetic observations is the first step of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), a framework for evaluating the impact of a new observation or algorithm. This paper provides details of the model sampling, aerosol and cloud optical properties, surface reflectance modeling, Rayleigh scattering calculations, and a discussion of the uncertainties of the simulated TOA radiance. An application for the simulated TOA radiance observations is demonstrated in the manuscript. Simulated TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) and GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) observations were used to show how observations from the two instruments could be combined to facilitate aerosol type discrimination. The results demonstrate the viability of a detailed instrument simulator for radiance measurements in the UV-Vis that is capable of accurately simulating high resolution, time-resolved measurements with reasonable computational efficiency.
Castellanos, Patricia↗
Potential Improvements in Global Carbon Flux Estimates from a Network of Laser Heterodyne Radiometer Measurements of Column Carbon Dioxide
We present observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the impact of a proposed network of ground-based miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) instruments that measure atmospheric column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) with a 1 ppm precision. A particular strength of this passive measurement approach is its insensitivity to clouds and aerosols due to its direct sun pointing and narrow field of view (0.2°). Developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), these portable, low-cost mini-LHR instruments were designed to operate in tandem with the sun photometers used by the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). This partnership allows us to leverage the existing framework of AERONET's global ground network of more than 500 sites as well as providing simultaneous measurements of aerosols that are known to be a major source of error in retrievals of XCO2 from passive nadir-viewing satellite observations. We show, using the global 3-D GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, that a deployment of 50 mini-LHRs at strategic (but not optimized) AERONET sites significantly improves our knowledge of global and regional land-based CO2 fluxes. This improvement varies seasonally and ranges 58%–81% over southern lands, 47%–76% over tropical lands, 71%–92% over northern lands, and 64%–91% globally. We also show significant added value from combining mini-LHR instruments with the existing ground-based NOAA flask network. Collectively, these data result in improved a posteriori CO2 flux estimates on spatial scales of ∼10 km2, especially over North America and Europe, where the ground-based networks are densest. Our studies suggest that the mini-LHR network could also play a substantive role in reducing carbon flux uncertainty in Arctic and tropical systems by filling in geographical gaps in measurements left by ground-based networks and space-based observations. A realized network would also provide necessary data for the quinquennial global stock takes that form part of the Paris Agreement.
Palmer, Paul I.↗
Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) New Observing Strategies (NOS) and NOS-Testbed (NOS-T)
With the advancement of space hardware technologies such as smaller spacecraft, component and instrument miniaturization and high performance space processors, and with the advancement of software technologies in artificial intelligence, big data analysis and autonomous decision making, Earth Science is looking at novel ways to observe phenomena that previously could not have been studied or would have been too expensive to study with traditional missions. In particular, the New Observing Strategies (NOS) component of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program aims at leveraging these novel technologies as well as low cost and easy access to space to acquire multi-temporal or simultaneous multi-angular, multi-locations, multi-resolution and multi-spectral observations that will provide better multi-source measurements and will build a more dynamic and comprehensive picture of Earth Science phenomena that need to be studied and analyzed. For applications such as water resources management, air quality monitoring, biodiversity studies or disaster management, NOS will integrate the use of small instruments, small spacecraft, constellations of spacecraft and networks of sensors to design new missions that will provide the necessary measurements to improve future forecast and science modeling systems.Measurement acquisition will therefore be approached as a system of systems rather than on a mission basis, and a system of this complexity should not be expected to work without full integration and experimental characterization. Although most of the individual technologies enabling to link and coordinate multi-source observations are more or less mature, a few technologies need to be developed and all of them need to be integrated and tested as a system. In order for this validation to occur, the AIST Program is developing the NOS Testbed that includes 3 main goals:1.Validate novel NOS technologies, independently and as a system2.Demonstrate novel distributed operations concepts3.Socialize new Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) and SensorWeb (SW) technologies and concepts to the science community by significantly retiring the risk of integrating these new technologies.The NOS Testbed will consist of multiple sensing nodes, simulated or actual, representing space, air and/or ground measurements, that are interconnected by a communications fabric (infrastructure that permits nodes to transmit and receive data between one another and interact with each other). Each node will be supported by hardware capabilities required to perform nodes monitoring and command & control, as well as intelligent "onboard" computing. The nodes will work together in a collaborative manner to demonstrate optimal science capabilities. The testbed will enable to validate technologies such as inter-node communication models, techniques and protocols; inter-node coordination; real-time data fusion and understanding; planning; sensor re-targeting; etc. Additionally, the testbed will have the capability to interact with various mission design tools, OSSEs and one or several forecast models. More details about the NOS Testbed will be presented at the confererence.
Earth Science missions; Advanced information Syste↗
The Origins Space Telescope
The Origins Space Telescope will trace the history of our origins from the time dust and heavy elements permanently altered the cosmic landscape to present-day life. How did galaxies evolve from the earliest galactic systems to those found in the universe today? How do habitable planets form? How common are life-bearing worlds? To answer these alluring questions, Origins will operate at mid- and far-infrared wavelengths and offer powerful spectroscopic instruments and sensitivity three orders of magnitude better than that of Herschel, the largest telescope flown in space to date. After a 3 ½ year study, the Origins Science and Technology Definition Team will recommend to the Decadal Survey a concept for Origins with a 5.9-m diameter telescope cryo cooled to 4.5 K and equipped with three scientific instruments. A mid-infrared instrument (MISC-T) will measure the spectra of transiting exoplanets in the 2.8 – 20 μm wavelength range and offer unprecedented sensitivity, enabling definitive biosignature detections. The Far-IR Imager Polarimeter (FIP) will be able to survey thousands of square degrees with broadband imaging at 50 and 250 μm. The Origins Survey Spectrometer (OSS) will cover wavelengths from 25 – 588 μm, make wide-area and deep spectroscopic surveys with spectral resolving power R ~ 300, and pointed observations at R ~ 40,000 and 300,000 with selectable instrument modes. Origins was designed to minimize complexity. The telescope has a Spitzer-like architecture and requires very few deployments after launch. The cryo-thermal system design leverages JWST technology and experience. A combination of current-state-of-the-art cryocoolers and next-generation detector technology will enable Origins’ natural background limited sensitivity.
Leisawitz, D.↗
Optical Design of the Origins Space Telescope
This paper discusses the optical design of the Origins Space Telescope. Origins is one of four large missions under study in preparation for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Sensitive to the mid- and far-infrared spectrum (between 2.8 and 588 μm), Origins sets out to answer a number of important scientific questions by addressing NASA’s three key science goals in astrophysics. The Origins telescope has a 5.9 m diameter primary mirror and operates at f/14. The large on-axis primary consists of 18 ‘keystone’ segments of two different prescriptions arranged in two annuli (six inner and twelve outer segments) that together form a circular aperture in the goal of achieving a symmetric point spread function. To accommodate the 46 x 15 arcminute full field of view of the telescope at the design wavelength of λ = 30 μm, a three-mirror anastigmat configuration is used. The design is diffraction-limited across its instruments’ fields of view. A brief discussion of each of the three baselined instruments within the Instrument Accommodation Module (IAM) is presented: 1) Origins Survey Spectrometer (OSS), 2) Mid-infrared Spectrometer, Camera (MISC) transit spectrometer channel, and 3) Far-Infrared Polarimeter/Imager (FIP). In addition, the up scope options for the observatory are laid out as well including a fourth instrument: the Heterodyne Receiver for Origins (HERO).
Corsetti, James A.↗
Optical Design of the Origins Space Telescope
The optical design is presented for the Origins Space Telescope, one of four large missions under study in preparation for the 2020 Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics is presented. Sensitive to the mid- and far-infrared spectrum (between 2.8 and 588 µm) and set to launch in approximately 2035, Origins sets out to answer a number of important scientific questions by addressing NASA's three key science goals in astrophysics: How does the universe work?, How did we get here, and Are we alone? To do so, Origins seeks to answer three main questions: 1) How do galaxies form stars, build up metals, and grow their central supermassive black holes from reionization to today? 2) How do the conditions for habitability develop during the process of planet formation? 3) Do planets orbiting M-dwarf stars support life?The Origins telescope has a 5.9 m diameter primary mirror and operates at f/14. The large on-axis primary consists of 18 'keystone' segments of two different prescriptions arranged in two annuli (six inner and twelve outer segments) that together form a circular aperture in the goal of achieving a symmetric point spread function. To simplify the design, the telescope will be launched with both the primary mirror segments and the secondary mirror already deployed. To accommodate the 46 x 15 arcminute full field of view of the telescope at the design wavelength of = 30 µm, a three-mirror anastigmat configuration is used. The design is diffraction-limited across its instruments' fields of view. A brief discussion of each of the three baselined instruments within the Instrument Accommodation Module (IAM) is presented: 1) Origins Survey Spectrometer (OSS), 2) Mid-infrared Spectrometer, Camera (MISC) transit spectrometer channel, and 3) Far-Infrared Polarimeter/Imager (FIP). In addition, the upscope options for the observatory are laid out as well, including a fourth instrument: the Heterodyne Receiver for Origins (HERO).
Howard, Joseph↗