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Methods of Measuring Secondary Electron Emission and Analysis of Spacecraft Charging Simulation

The scope of the internship project was to help the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) at KSC gain an understanding as to what parameters related to secondary electron emission (SEE), and electrostatic discharge (ESD) could be measured within its own facilities. As well as assistance in developing a plan for the ESPL to acquire the capabilities to measure other necessary parameters, to reduce the reliance on measurement data from facilities outside of the agency. The intern also worked closely with agency customers of the Launch Services Program (LSP) in expanding the MAPTIS database to incorporate various electrostatic and physical properties of materials used in the Gateway Program. This involved cross-center collaboration with industry and NASA contracted academia members in order to fill in the gaps of data that is missing from the database. Overall, the internship provided assistance in coordinating the approval for more materials to be added to the MAPTIS database, and continuing to assist the team at the ESPL in their consulting work for the agency through the use of various spacecraft charging and ESD simulation programs (i.e., NASCAP, NUMIT2.1). As well as assisting in the CAD design and implementation of an electrodynamic dust shield (EDS) for use in upcoming spaceflight missions. This was all done with the aim of helping the ESPL demonstrate its capabilities for the agency, and to continue expanding and localizing measurement techniques at KSC to help streamline obtaining the information NASA needs to ensure safety in current and future missions.

dust↗

Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

Forward Monte Carlo Computations of Polarized Microwave Radiation

Microwave radiative transfer computations continue to acquire greater importance as the emphasis in remote sensing shifts towards the understanding of microphysical properties of clouds and with these to better understand the non linear relation between rainfall rates and satellite-observed radiance. A first step toward realistic radiative simulations has been the introduction of techniques capable of treating 3-dimensional geometry being generated by ever more sophisticated cloud resolving models. To date, a series of numerical codes have been developed to treat spherical and randomly oriented axisymmetric particles. Backward and backward-forward Monte Carlo methods are, indeed, efficient in this field. These methods, however, cannot deal properly with oriented particles, which seem to play an important role in polarization signatures over stratiform precipitation. Moreover, beyond the polarization channel, the next generation of fully polarimetric radiometers challenges us to better understand the behavior of the last two Stokes parameters as well. In order to solve the vector radiative transfer equation, one-dimensional numerical models have been developed, These codes, unfortunately, consider the atmosphere as horizontally homogeneous with horizontally infinite plane parallel layers. The next development step for microwave radiative transfer codes must be fully polarized 3-D methods. Recently a 3-D polarized radiative transfer model based on the discrete ordinate method was presented. A forward MC code was developed that treats oriented nonspherical hydrometeors, but only for plane-parallel situations.

Battaglia, A.↗

Loss tolerant speech decoder for telecommunications

A method and device for extrapolating past signal-history data for insertion into missing data segments in order to conceal digital speech frame errors. The extrapolation method uses past-signal history that is stored in a buffer. The method is implemented with a device that utilizes a finite-impulse response (FIR) multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural network that is trained by back-propagation for one-step extrapolation of speech compression algorithm (SCA) parameters. Once a speech connection has been established, the speech compression algorithm device begins sending encoded speech frames. As the speech frames are received, they are decoded and converted back into speech signal voltages. During the normal decoding process, pre-processing of the required SCA parameters will occur and the results stored in the past-history buffer. If a speech frame is detected to be lost or in error, then extrapolation modules are executed and replacement SCA parameters are generated and sent as the parameters required by the SCA. In this way, the information transfer to the SCA is transparent, and the SCA processing continues as usual. The listener will not normally notice that a speech frame has been lost because of the smooth transition between the last-received, lost, and next-received speech frames.

Prieto, Jr., Jaime L.↗

A Comparison of Combustor-Noise Models

The present status of combustor-noise prediction in the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP)1 for current-generation (N) turbofan engines is summarized. Several semi-empirical models for turbofan combustor noise are discussed, including best methods for near-term updates to ANOPP. An alternate turbine-transmission factor2 will appear as a user selectable option in the combustor-noise module GECOR in the next release. The three-spectrum model proposed by Stone et al.3 for GE turbofan-engine combustor noise is discussed and compared with ANOPP predictions for several relevant cases. Based on the results presented herein and in their report,3 it is recommended that the application of this fully empirical combustor-noise prediction method be limited to situations involving only General-Electric turbofan engines. Long-term needs and challenges for the N+1 through N+3 time frame are discussed. Because the impact of other propulsion-noise sources continues to be reduced due to turbofan design trends, advances in noise-mitigation techniques, and expected aircraft configuration changes, the relative importance of core noise is expected to greatly increase in the future. The noise-source structure in the combustor, including the indirect one, and the effects of the propagation path through the engine and exhaust nozzle need to be better understood. In particular, the acoustic consequences of the expected trends toward smaller, highly efficient gas-generator cores and low-emission fuel-flexible combustors need to be fully investigated since future designs are quite likely to fall outside of the parameter space of existing (semi-empirical) prediction tools.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗

Indoor Ground Testing of a Small UAS Sense and Avoid Airborne Doppler Radar

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is researching prototype technologies needed to ensure safe integration of UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). Within the UTM Concept of Operations, UAS would be equipped with on-board Sense and Avoid (SAA) technology to continually monitor for manned and unmanned aircraft in its vicinity while operating beyond visual line of sight in uncontrolled airspace. To support this effort, a candidate commercially available 24.5 GHz Doppler radar was selected and evaluated to determine if the technology could reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of small UAS (sUAS). Indoor ground tests were conducted inside the NASA Langley Research Center’s Experimental Test Range (ETR) from a stationary platform to evaluate the Doppler radar performance characteristics and gain operational proficiency before the radar was authorized to transmit outdoors. A high speed linear rail system was developed for the radar evaluation and was shown to be an effective method to generate Doppler radar targets of known radar cross section. The accuracy of the range and velocity reported by the radar was shown to be dependent on the Kalman filter state variance parameter settings. Antenna measurements were collected with the radar installed both on and off a sUAS to quantify the relative antenna gain, beam width and side lobe levels of the radar’s Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array (MESA) antennas at boresight and extreme field of view pointing vectors. The relative antenna gain measured 2.6 dB lower at extreme field view angles compared to the boresight radiation pattern.

Szatkowski, George N.↗

Computerized atmospheric trace contaminant control simulation for manned spacecraft

Buildup of atmospheric trace contaminants in enclosed volumes such as a spacecraft may lead to potentially serious health problems for the crew members. For this reason, active control methods must be implemented to minimize the concentration of atmospheric contaminants to levels that are considered safe for prolonged, continuous exposure. Designing hardware to accomplish this has traditionally required extensive testing to characterize and select appropriate control technologies. Data collected since the Apollo project can now be used in a computerized performance simulation to predict the performance and life of contamination control hardware to allow for initial technology screening, performance prediction, and operations and contingency studies to determine the most suitable hardware approach before specific design and testing activities begin. The program, written in FORTRAN 77, provides contaminant removal rate, total mass removed, and per pass efficiency for each control device for discrete time intervals. In addition, projected cabin concentration is provided. Input and output data are manipulated using commercial spreadsheet and data graphing software. These results can then be used in analyzing hardware design parameters such as sizing and flow rate, overall process performance and program economics. Test performance may also be predicted to aid test design.

Perry, J. L.↗

Improved Crystal Quality by Detached Solidification in Microgravity

The goals of our work on detached solidification have been to: Develop a complete understanding of all of the phenomena of detached solidification; Make it possible to achieve detached solidification reproducibly; Increase crystallographic perfection through detached solidification. Specifically, we aimed in this project to: Identify a system and develop methods that would allow viewing of the melt surface and convection in the melt during detached solidification in microgravity; Improve understanding of the origination and evolution of detachment through experiments and theoretical treatments; Achieve detachment on earth. The project resulted in 14 publications, 15 presentations, completion of 2 Ph.D. theses, and completion of 2 M.S. theses. Two additional papers are currently being reviewed for publication. Copies of most of the papers are attached as appendices. Among the accomplishments are: Achievement of detached solidification of InSb on earth and determination of the conditions favoring detachment on earth. Development of a new method for coating the interior of silica growth ampoules with transparent boron nitride, which yields the high contact angles for semiconductor melts that favor detachment. Development of a new coating for the interior of Pyrex ampoules yielding very high contact angles for water and molten organic compounds. Development of a material-balance model for steady detached solidification that provides greatly improved insight into the process, both in microgravity and on earth. Dimensionless parameters were found that clarify the role of operating conditions and physical properties. The reason for the occurrence of two steady states was clarified, along with their relative stability. Observation of periodic gas tubes during directional solidification of water and organic compounds. Gas bubbles did not propagate around the periphery to yield full detachment. Failure to obtain detachment is attributed to the ready plastic deformation of these materials, so that the frozen material continues to adhere to the ampoule wall during cooling.

Regel, Liya L.↗

In-Situ Measurement of Hall Thruster Erosion Using a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

One potential life-limiting mechanism in a Hall thruster is the erosion of the ceramic material comprising the discharge channel. This is especially true for missions that require long thrusting periods and can be problematic for lifetime qualification, especially when attempting to qualify a thruster by analysis rather than a test lasting the full duration of the mission. In addition to lifetime, several analytical and numerical models include electrode erosion as a mechanism contributing to enhanced transport properties. However, there is still a great deal of dispute over the importance of erosion to transport in Hall thrusters. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of discharge channel erosion is useful in addressing both the lifetime and transport concerns. An in-situ measurement would allow for real-time data regarding the erosion rates at different operating points, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over a thruster s operating envelope would also be useful in the modeling of the detailed physics inside the discharge chamber. There are many different sensors and techniques that have been employed to quantify discharge channel erosion in Hall thrusters. Snapshots of the wear pattern can be obtained at regular shutdown intervals using laser profilometry. Many non-intrusive techniques of varying complexity and sensitivity have been employed to detect the time-varying presence of erosion products in the thruster plume. These include the use quartz crystal microbalances, emission spectroscopy, laser induced flourescence, and cavity ring-down spectroscopy. While these techniques can provide a very accurate picture of the level of eroded material in the thruster plume, it is more difficult to use them to determine the location from which the material was eroded. Furthermore, none of the methods cited provide a true in-situ measure of erosion at the channel surface while the thruster is in operation (i.e. none yield a continuous channel erosion measurement). A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor was tested using a linear Hall thruster geometry (see Fig. 1), which served as a means of producing plasma erosion of a ceramic discharge chamber. The mass flow rate, discharge voltage, and applied magnetic field strength could be varied, allowing for erosion measurements over a broad thruster operating envelope. Results are presented demonstrating the ability of the REAST sensor to capture not only the insulator erosion rates but also changes in these rates as a function of the discharge parameters.

Polzin, Kurt↗

Ocular Outcomes Comparison Between 14- and 70-day Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

INTRODUCTION: Ophthalmological changes, including optic disc edema with optic nerve sheath distension, posterior globe flattening with hyperopic shift, choroidal folds and cotton wool spots have been detected in some astronauts involved in long-duration spaceflights. (sup 1) It is hypothesized that elevated intracranial pressure resulting from microgravity-induced cephalad fluid shifts may be responsible for most of these findings. Head-down tilt bed rest (HTDBR) is a ground-based microgravity analog which also produces cephalad fluid shifts. It is conceivable that prolonged HDTBR exposure may induce ocular changes similar to those experienced in microgravity. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to compare structural and functional ocular outcomes between 14- and 70-day HDTBR in healthy human subjects. It is hypothesized that 70-d HDTBR induced ocular changes of greater magnitude as compared to 14-d HDTBR. METHODS: Two HDTBR studies were conducted at the NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit, located at The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, TX. Identical NASA standard screening procedures and BR conditions (e.g., strict sleep-wake cycle, standardized diet, continuous video monitoring) were implemented in both studies. Participants spent 14 and/or 70 consecutive days in a 6deg HDT position and did not engage in exercise. Subjects received weekly ocular examinations before, during, and after HDTBR. Ocular testing included: distance and near best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), cycloplegic refraction, intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test, confrontational visual field, color fundus photography and Spectral-domain OCT scans of the macula and the optic disc. Pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be evaluated for BCVA, spherical equivalent, IOP, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and macular OCT parameters. RESULTS: 16 (12 males and 4 females) and 6 (5 males and 1 female) subjects participated in the 14 and 70-day HDTBR studies, respectively. One subject participated in both studies. The demographic and ophthalmological characteristics of the 14-day HDTBR study have been presented elsewhere.2 In the 70- day study, subjects age averaged 39.5 +/- 7.8 years; pre- and post-HDTBR Goldmann IOP were, on average, 15.4 and 14.6 mmHg in the right eye, and 15.3 and 14.4 mmHg in the left eye, respectively; preand post-HDTBR Spectralis OCT (Heidelberg Engineering, GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany) average RNFL thickness were 103.8 and 106 μm in the right eye, and 103 and 104.3 μm in the left eye, respectively. In both studies, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test and confrontational visual field were within normal limits at all time points; no changes were detected on stereoscopic color optic disc photography. For the above outcomes, preliminary results of the pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be presented at the 2015 Human Research Program Investigators' Workshop. CONCLUSIONS: Although 14-day HDTBR did not seem to induce clinically relevant ocular changes, (sup 2) a systematic evaluation and comparison with the 70-day HDTBR study results will elucidate whether the magnitude of ocular structural and functional changes is affected by the time spent in the recumbent position. Further research will also address the effects of integrated resistance and aerobic training during HDTBR on the ocular outcomes. REFERENCES: 1. Mader TH et al. Optic disc edema, globe flattening, choroidal folds, and hyperopic shifts observed in astronauts after long-duration space flight. Ophthalmology. 2011;118(10):2058-69. 2. Taibbi G et al. Ocular outcomes evaluation in a 14-day head-down bed rest study. Aviat Space Environ Med. 2014;85(10):983-92.

Cromwell, R.L.↗

Shrink Tape Technique for Heat Forming Aluminum Substrates for Thin Foil X-Ray Mirrors and the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-Ray Concentrators

Consistent improvements in the design and fabrication of thin-foil, epoxy-replicated x-ray mirrors for astronomical telescopes have yielded increasingly higher quality and more precise astrophysical data. The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) x-ray timing mission optics continues this tradition and introduces design elements that promise even more accurate measurements and precise astrophysical parameters. The singly reflecting concentrators have a curved axial profile to improve photon concentration and a sturdy full shell structure for enhanced module stability. These design elements introduced the challenge of reliably forming mirror substrates at an acceptable production rate. By developing a technique using heat shrink tape to compress and conform thin aluminum mirror substrates to shaping mandrels, production rate improved with successful fabrication. The technique's efficiency was analyzed by measuring hundreds of substrate profiles postforming, performance testing completely assembled concentrators composed of every size substrate, and comparing the results to simulated fabrication scenarios. On average, the profiles were copied within 4.6 plus or minus 3.7 percent. These measurements and the overall success of NICER's optics, via ground calibration, have shown that the heat-shrink tape method is reliable, repeatable, and could be used in future missions to increase production rate and improve performance.

Balsamo, Erin↗

Fixed-range optimum trajectories for short-haul aircraft

An algorithm, based on the energy-state method, is derived for calculating optimum trajectories with a range constraint. The basis of the algorithm is the assumption that optimum trajectories consist of, at most, three segments: an increasing energy segment (climb); a constant energy segment (cruise); and a decreasing energy segment (descent). This assumption allows energy to be used as the independent variable in the increasing and decreasing energy segments, thereby eliminating the integration of a separate adjoint differential equation and simplifying the calculus of variations problem to one requiring only pointwise extremization of algebraic functions. The algorithm is used to compute minimum fuel, minimum time, and minimum direct-operating-cost trajectories, with range as a parameter, for an in-service CTOL aircraft and for an advanced STOL aircraft. For the CTOL aircraft and the minimum-fuel performance function, the optimum controls, consisting of air-speed and engine power setting, are continuous functions of the energy in both climb and descent as well as near the maximum or cruise energy. This is also true for the STOL aircraft except in the descent where at one energy level a nearly constant energy dive segment occurs, yielding a discontinuity in the airspeed at that energy. The reason for this segment appears to be the relatively high fuel flow at idle power of the engines used by this STOL aircraft. Use of a simplified trajectory which eliminates the dive increases the fuel consumption of the total descent trajectory by about 10 percent and the time to fly the descent by about 19 percent compared to the optimum.

Erzberger, H.↗

What Is the OPP Approach to the Next Generation of Laboratory Requirements

Planetary Protection Quality Management System NASA’s Office of Planetary Protection uses a quality-based process evaluation approach to verify planetary protection bioburden compliance over a project’s life cycle. The verification strategy shifts from a comparative direct assay approach validating hardware bioburden at a “moment in time,” to one that implements a continual quality assurance demonstration of the analytical process via established data requirements, laboratory operational, and management parameters throughout the mission’s entire assembly process. Laboratory quality-based systems and management strategies are standardized and implemented across government and industry. A standardized laboratory quality system approach increases transparency throughout the project’s life cycle and aligns planetary protection analytical approaches with government and industry practices to support both NASA and commercial endeavors. Strategies include the implementation of a laboratory quality management structure that documents and routinely validates parameters critical to experimental design and data collection, provides data quality assessment parameters, and ultimately validates that the collected data is of sufficient quality and quantity to meet the specified technical goals. Planetary protection can draw on these practices to provide a systematic process-based quality approach to support planetary protection validation and compliance requirements. Quality approaches including data quality objectives, method performance, data acceptance criteria and the associated laboratory quality management system are presented to provide an overview and framework for a planetary protection laboratory quality management system.

Amy Baker↗

Novel Engineering and Fabrication Techniques Tested in Low-Noise- Research Fan Blades

A major source of fan noise in commercial turbofan engines is the interaction of the wake from the fan blades with the stationary vanes (stators) directly behind them. The Trailing Edge Blowing (TEB) project team at the NASA Glenn Research Center designed and fabricated new fan blades to study the effects of fan trailing edge blowing as a potential noise-reduction concept. The intent is to fill the rotor wake by supplying air to the rotor blade trailing edge at the proper conditions to minimize the wake deficit, and thus generate less noise. The TEB hardware is designed for the Active Noise Control Fan (ANCF) test rig in Glenn's Aeroacoustic Propulsion Laboratory. For this test, the air is fed from an external supply through the shaft of the rig. It is distributed to the base of each blade through an impeller, where it is forced into a plenum at the core of each blade. In actual engine configuration, air would most likely be bled from the compressor, but only at times when noise is an issue, such as takeoffs and landings. Glenn researchers designed and manufactured the blades in-house, using new techniques and concepts. The skins, which were designed for maximum strength in the directions of highest stress, were molded from multiple layers of carbon fiber. Considerable use was made of rapid prototyping techniques, such as laser sintering. The core was sintered from a lightweight polymer, and the retainer was CNC-machined (computer numerical control machined) from aluminum. All the components were joined with a cold-cure aerospace adhesive. These techniques and processes reduced the overall cost and allowed the new concept to be studied much sooner than would be possible using traditional fabrication methods. Since this test rig did not support the use of blade-monitoring techniques such as strain gauges, extensive bench testing was required to qualify the design. The blades were examined using a variety of methods including holography, pull tests (cyclic and failure), shake tests, rap tests, and nondestructive inspection. Acoustic testing of the ANCF fan using TEB has been ongoing since January of 2001. The fan has completed about 100 hr of testing with no structural, vibrational, or fatigue problems. Far-field acoustic measurements, in-duct mode measurements, precise hot wire surveys, and detailed performance measurements are providing data for evaluating the concept. The far-field noise data show that tone noise was reduced significantly with the initial ANCF TEB fan design. In addition, a significant reduction in unsteady stator loading has been measured, indicating the potential for stator broadband noise reduction. The acoustic benefits will be assessed and important design parameters identified to improve the ability to fully exploit any benefit provided by this technique. On the basis of the success of trailing edge blowing, Glenn plans to continue this research with a higher speed, higher pressure ratio fan operating in an acoustic wind tunnel to simulate flight conditions.

Cunningham, Cameron C.↗

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Celebrating One Year of Atmospheric Evolution on Titan Since Voyager with Cassini/CIRS

Seven years after Cassini's Saturn orbit insertion, we have in hand almost a complete picture of the stratospheric evolution within a Titanian year by combining Voyager 1 Infrared Radiometer Spectrometer (IRIS) measurements from 1980, Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) continuous recordings from 2004 to 2010 and the intervening ground-based and space-borne observations with ISO (Coustenis et al 2003). We have re-analyzed the Voyager l/IRIS data acquired during the 1980 encounter, 30 years (one Titan revolution) before 2010, with the most recent spectroscopic data releases and haze descriptions (Vinatier et al 2010, 2012) by using our radiative transfer code (ART). The re-analysis confirms the Vl/IRIS retrievals by Coustenis and Bezard (1995) and updates the abundances for all molecules and latitudes based on new temperature, haze and spectroscopic parameters. ART was also applied to all available CIRS spectral averages corresponding to more than 70 flybys binned over 10 deg in latitude for both medium (2.5 cm(exp -1) and higher (0.5 cm(exp -1) resolutions and from nadir and limb data both. In these spectra, we search for variations in temperature (following the method in Achterberg et al 2011) and composition at northern (around 50 deg N), equatorial and southern (around 50 deg S) latitudes as the season on Titan progresses and compare them to the new Vl/IRIS, ISO and other ground-based reported composition values (Coustenis et al., 2012, in prep). Other latitudes were examined in previous papers (e.g. Coustenis et al 2010).

Coustenis, A.↗

Implementation of J-A Methodology Elastic-Plastic Crack Instability Analysis Capability into the WARP-3D Code

Characterization of the near crack-tip stress/strain fields is the foundation of fracture mechanics. The description of the near tip stress field and the prediction of when fracture occurs is well established for brittle materials that exhibit linear elastic behavior. However, in ductile materials or conditions that violate linear elastic assumptions (Aluminum alloys, Al 2024-T3, Al 2024- T351 etc.), the elastic-plastic crack-tip stress fields are characterized by the Hutchison-Rice-Rosengren (HRR) field. The J-integral is commonly used to characterize amplitude of the HRR field under elastic-plastic conditions. The J-integral has been demonstrated for crack-tip fields that are under high constraint conditions (i.e., small-scale plasticity where the J-dominance is maintained). However, as the external load increases, yielding changes from small- to largescale plasticity and usually a loss of constraint (i.e., reduction in the triaxial stress field along the crack front). The loss of constraint leads to the deviation of the crack-tip stress fields from that given by the HRR field. Hence, the J-dominance will be gradually lost and additional parameter(s) are required to quantify the crack-tip stress fields and predict fracture behavior. The assessment objectives were to: 1) implement a two-parameter (i.e., J-A) fracture criterion into an elastic-plastic three-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis (FEA), 2) validate the implementation by comparison with the A parameter from literature data, 3) conduct material characterization tests to quantify the material behavior and provide fracture data for validation of the J-A fracture criteria, and (4) perform evaluations to establish if the J-A criteria can be used to predict fracture in a ductile metallic material (e.g., aluminum alloys). The A parameter in these criteria is the second parameter in a three-term elastic-plastic asymptotic expansion of the neartip stress behavior. A series of extensive FEAs were performed using WARP3D software package to obtain solutions for the A parameter for different specimen configurations. The methodology needed for the estimation of the A parameter in the asymptotic expansion was developed and implemented using Matlab®. A user material (UMAT) routine was used to model the material stress-strain response using a Ramberg-Osgood power law with a hardening exponent (n) and a material coefficient (alpha). This UMAT routine was successfully implemented in WARP3D software and validated through comparison with the experimental data. Three configurations were extracted from published results: 1) center cracked plate (CCP), 2) single edge-cracked plate (SECP), and 3) double edge-cracked plate (DECP). These configurations and four other configurations (three-hole tension (THT)), three-point bend (3PTB), three-hole compact tension (3PCT), and compact tension (CT)) were analyzed to verify the methodology that was developed and implemented into WARP3D. Solutions of the A parameter were obtained for remote tension loading conditions that started with small-scale yielding and continued into the large-scale plasticity regime. The results indicate that the methodology developed can be used to calculate the elastic-plastic J-A parameters for test specimens with a range of crack geometries, material strain hardening behaviors, and loading conditions. The J-A parameters were implemented as fracture criteria and used to predict the test results. For comparison, other fracture criteria were used to predict the same test results. Major findings include: The A constraint parameter A varies with specimen type and applied load thus accurate determination is crucial in predicting the failure load, and the A parameter is asymptotic as the failure load is approached, making an accurate determination difficult (i.e., small differences in the A parameter can cause large variations in failure load) for materials exhibiting elastic-plastic behavior. The failure predictions from J-A methodology were more accurate than the traditionally used KC and J methods, and have comparable scatter to that observed when using the crack-tip opening angle (CTOA) method. However, the J-A methodology requires considerable effort (expertise level and labor) to implement and to evaluate the A parameter for different specimen types and materials, or to apply this methodology to part-through crack (e.g., 3D problems) structural applications.

Hamm, Kenneth R., Jr.↗

PCEMCAN - Probabilistic Ceramic Matrix Composites Analyzer: User's Guide, Version 1.0

PCEMCAN (Probabalistic CEramic Matrix Composites ANalyzer) is an integrated computer code developed at NASA Lewis Research Center that simulates uncertainties associated with the constituent properties, manufacturing process, and geometric parameters of fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites and quantifies their random thermomechanical behavior. The PCEMCAN code can perform the deterministic as well as probabilistic analyses to predict thermomechanical properties. This User's guide details the step-by-step procedure to create input file and update/modify the material properties database required to run PCEMCAN computer code. An overview of the geometric conventions, micromechanical unit cell, nonlinear constitutive relationship and probabilistic simulation methodology is also provided in the manual. Fast probability integration as well as Monte-Carlo simulation methods are available for the uncertainty simulation. Various options available in the code to simulate probabilistic material properties and quantify sensitivity of the primitive random variables have been described. The description of deterministic as well as probabilistic results have been described using demonstration problems. For detailed theoretical description of deterministic and probabilistic analyses, the user is referred to the companion documents "Computational Simulation of Continuous Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composite Behavior," NASA TP-3602, 1996 and "Probabilistic Micromechanics and Macromechanics for Ceramic Matrix Composites", NASA TM 4766, June 1997.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗