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Secular changes in the geomagnetic field between 1955 and 1980 have been large enough to produce significant differences in both the verical cutoff rigidities and in the L-value for a specified position. A useful relationship employing the McIlwain L-parameter to estimate vertical cutoff rigidities has been derived for the twenty-five year period.
A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.
A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.
The statistical analysis of strength and fracture of materials in general, with application to fiber composites are discussed. The weakest link model is considered in a fairly general form, and the resulting equations are demonstrated by using a Weibull distribution for flaws. This distribution appears naturally in a variety of problems, and therefore additional attention is devoted to analysis and statistical estimation connected with this distribution. Special working charts are included to facilitate interpretation of observed data and estimation of parameters. Implications of the size effect are considered for various kinds of flaw distributions. Failure and damage in a fiber-reinforced system are described. Some useful graphs are included for predicting the strength of such a system. Recent data on organic-fiber (PRD 49) composite material is analyzed by the Weibull distribution with the methods presented.
This paper deals with the statistical analysis of strength and fracture of materials in general, with application to fiber composites. The 'weakest link' model is considered in a fairly general form, and the resulting equations are demonstrated by using a Weibull distribution for flaws. This distribution appears naturally in a variety of problems, and therefore additional attention is devoted to analysis and statistical estimation connected with this distribution. Special working charts are included to facilitate interpretation of observed data and estimation of parameters. Implications of the size effect are considered for various kinds of flaw distributions. The paper describes failure and damage in a fiber-reinforced systems.
The Space Station will be assembled in low earth orbit by a combination of deployable and space erectable modules that are progressively integrated during successive flights of the Shuttle. The crew assisted space construction will result in a configuration which is a large scale composite of structural elements having connectivity with a wide range of possible end conditions and imprecisely known dynamic characteristics. The generic applications of Flight Dynamics Identification to the candidate Space Station configurations currently under consideration are described. Identification functions are categorized, and the various methods for extracting parameter estimates are correlated with the sensing of parameter estimates are correlated with the sensing of specific characteristics of interest to both engineering subsystems and users of the Station's commercial and scientific facilities. Onboard implementation architecture and constraints are discussed from the viewpoint of maximizing integration of the Identification process with the flight subsystem's data and signal flow.
Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach.
Three different data analysis techniques - shape factor, parameter estimation, and deconvolution - have been applied to the same set of satellite radiation measurements to determine their effect on the estimated radiation field. The measurements are from a wide-angle, horizon-to-horizon, nadir-pointing sensor. The shape factor technique reduces each measurement to a radiant exitance at the top of the atmosphere by simple division by a constant. The parameter estimation technique processes all measurements together as a batch and defines the radiant exitance as a least-squares fit to the data. The deconvolution technique takes advantage of the fact that spherical harmonics are the eigenfunctions of the measurement operator. All three techniques are derived, and their assumptions, advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Their results are compared globally, zonally, regionally and on a spatial spectrum basis. All three techniques give comparable results for global parameters; however, results on a regional scale were quite different. The standard deviations of the regional differences in radiant exitance varied from 7.4 to 13.5 W/sq m. Of the three techniques, the parameter estimation technique produced the best regional results and is the choice of the author.
The traditional approach to quantum parameter estimation focuses on the quantum state, deriving fundamental bounds on precision through the quantum Fisher information. In most experimental settings, however, performing arbitrary quantum measurements is highly unfeasible. In open quantum systems, an alternative approach to metrology involves the measurement of stochastic currents flowing from the system to its environment. However, the present understanding of current-based metrology is mostly limited to Markovian master equations. Considering a parameter estimation problem in a two-terminal mesoscopic conductor, we identify the key elements that determine estimation precision within the Landauer-Büttiker formalism. Crucially, this approach allows us to address arbitrary coupling and temperature regimes. Furthermore, we obtain analytical results for the precision in linear-response and zero-temperature regimes. For the specific parameter estimation task that we consider, we demonstrate that the boxcar transmission function is optimal for current-based metrology in all parameter regimes.
Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.
Quantum systems of infinite dimension, such as bosonic oscillators, provide vast resources for quantum sensing. Yet, a general theory on how to manipulate such bosonic modes for sensing beyond parameter estimation is unknown. We present a general algorithmic framework, quantum signal processing interferometry (QSPI), for quantum sensing at the fundamental limits of quantum mechanics by generalizing Ramsey-type interferometry. Our QSPI sensing protocol relies on performing nonlinear polynomial transformations on the oscillator's quadrature operators by generalizing quantum signal processing (QSP) from qubits to hybrid qubit-oscillator systems. We use our QSPI sensing framework to make efficient binary decisions on a displacement channel in the single-shot limit. Theoretical analysis suggests the sensing accuracy, given a single-shot qubit measurement, scales inversely with the sensing time or circuit depth of the algorithm. We further concatenate a series of such binary decisions to perform parameter estimation in a bit-by-bit fashion. Numerical simulations are performed to support these statements. Our QSPI protocol offers a unified framework for quantum sensing using continuous-variable bosonic systems beyond parameter estimation and establishes a promising avenue toward efficient and scalable quantum control and quantum sensing schemes beyond the NISQ era.
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A statistical framework for climatological Z-R parameter estimation is developed and simulation experiments are conducted to examine sampling properties of the estimators. Both parametric and nonparametric models are considered. For parametric models, it is shown that Z-R parameters can be estimated by maximum likelihood, a procedure with optimal large sample properties. A general nonparametric framework for climatological Z-R estimation is also developed. Nonparametric procedures are attractive because of their flexibility in dealing with certain types of measurement errors common to radar data. Simulation experiments show that even under favorable assumptions on error characteristics of radar and raingages, large datasets are required to obtain accurate Z-R parameter estimates. Another important conclusion is that estimation results are generally quite sensitive to radar and raingage measurement thresholds. For fixed sample size, the simulation results can be used to provide quantitative assessments of the accuracy of Z-R model parameter estimates. These results are particularly useful for error analysis of precipitation products that are derived using climatological Z-R relations. One example is the large-area rainfall estimates derived using the height-area rainfall threshold (HART) technique.
An approximation scheme is developed for the identification of hybrid systems describing the transverse vibrations of flexible beams with attached tip bodies. In particular, problems involving the estimation of functional parameters are considered. The identification problem is formulated as a least squares fit to data subject to the coupled system of partial and ordinary differential equations describing the transverse displacement of the beam and the motion of the tip bodies respectively. A cubic spline-based Galerkin method applied to the state equations in weak form and the discretization of the admissible parameter space yield a sequence of approximating finite dimensional identification problems. It is shown that each of the approximating problems admits a solution and that from the resulting sequence of optimal solutions a convergent subsequence can be extracted, the limit of which is a solution to the original identification problem. The approximating identification problems can be solved using standard techniques and readily available software.
This paper presents a flutter analysis technique for the transonic flight regime. The technique uses an iterative approach to determine the critical dynamic pressure for a given mach number. Unlike other CFD-based flutter analysis methods, each iteration solves for the critical dynamic pressure and uses this value in subsequent iterations until the value converges. This process reduces the iterations required to determine the critical dynamic pressure. To improve the accuracy of the analysis, the technique employs a known structural model, leaving only the aerodynamic model as the unknown. The aerodynamic model is estimated using unsteady aeroelastic CFD analysis combined with a parameter estimation routine. The technique executes as follows. The known structural model is represented as a finite element model. Modal analysis determines the frequencies and mode shapes for the structural model. At a given mach number and dynamic pressure, the unsteady CFD analysis is performed. The output time history of the surface pressure is converted to a nodal aerodynamic force vector. The forces are then normalized by the given dynamic pressure. A multi-input multi-output parameter estimation software, ERA, estimates the aerodynamic model through the use of time histories of nodal aerodynamic forces and structural deformations. The critical dynamic pressure is then calculated using the known structural model and the estimated aerodynamic model. This output is used as the dynamic pressure in subsequent iterations until the critical dynamic pressure is determined. This technique is demonstrated on the Aerostructures Test Wing-2 model at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center.
The effects of colored noise on the accuracy of batch least squares parameter estimates with applications to attitude determination cases are investigated. The standard approaches used for estimating the accuracy of a computed attitude commonly assume uncorrelated (white) measurement noise, while in actual flight experience measurement noise often contains significant time correlations and thus is colored. For example, horizon scanner measurements from low Earth orbit were observed to show correlations over many minutes in response to large scale atmospheric phenomena. A general approach to the analysis of the effects of colored noise is investigated, and interpretation of the resulting equations provides insight into the effects of any particular noise color and the worst case noise coloring for any particular parameter estimate. It is shown that for certain cases, the effects of relatively short term correlations can be accommodated by a simple correction factor. The errors in the predicted accuracy assuming white noise and the reduced accuracy due to the suboptimal nature of estimators that do not take into account the noise color characteristics are discussed. The appearance of a variety of sample noise color characteristics are demonstrated through simulation, and their effects are discussed for sample estimation cases. Based on the analysis, options for dealing with the effects of colored noise are discussed.
The SEAHT program is designed to process multiple passes of altimeter data with intersecting ground tracks, with the estimation of corrections for orbital errors to each pass such that the data has the best overall agreement at the crossover points. Orbit error for each pass is modeled as a polynomial in time, with optional orders of 0, 1, or 2. One or more passes may be constrained in the adjustment process, thus allowing passes with the best orbits to provide the overall level and orientation of the estimated sea surface heights. Intersections which disagree by more than an input edit level are not used in the error parameter estimation. In the program implementation, passes are grouped into South-North passes and North-South passes, with the North-South passes partitioned out for the estimation of orbit error parameters. Computer core utilization is thus dependent on the number of parameters estimated for the set of South-North arcs, but is independent on the number of North-South passes. Estimated corrections for each pass are applied to the data at its input data rate and an output tape is written which contains the corrected data.
Estimating aircraft models from test data requires several simplifying assumptions that introduce biases into the parameter estimates. In this paper, these biases are defined and a method for estimating the biases is discussed. Having an estimate of the bias allows the parameters estimated from test to be integrated into a high-order model. The Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) wind tunnel model is discussed and the bias is demonstrated for one of the testing configurations. The methodology was able to estimate these biases and apply corrections to high-order aeroelastic models to improve the fit to test data. The consideration of the biases allows more meaningful comparisons and avoids the erroneous differences between pretest predictions and the fitted model.