Sensitivity Analysis for Takeoff and Landing Distance Parameters for Regional Air Mobility (RAM) Aircraft
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Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport
Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Thermal design of AOTV heatshields for a conical drag brake
Results are presented from an on-going study of the thermal performance of thermal protection systems for a conical drag brake type AOTV. Three types of heatshield are considered: rigid ceramic insulation, flexible ceramic blankets, and ceramic cloths. The results for the rigid insulation apply to other types of AOTV as well. Charts are presented in parametric form so that they may be applied to a variety of missions and vehicle configurations. The parameters considered include: braking maneuver heat flux and total heat load, heatshield material and thickness, heatshield thermal mass and conductivity, absorptivity and emissivity of surfaces, thermal mass of support structure, and radiation transmission through thin heatshields. Results of temperature calculations presented show trends with and sensitivities to these parameters. The emphasis is on providing information that will be useful in estimating the minimum required mass of these heatshield materials.
Pitts, W. C.↗
The doubled CO2 climate and the sensitivity of the modeled hydrologic cycle
Four doubled CO2 experiments with the GISS general circulation model are compared to investigate the consistency of changes in water availability over the United States. The experiments compare the influence of model sensitivity, model resolution, and the sea-surface temperature gradient. The results show that the general mid-latitude drying over land is dependent upon the degree of mid-latitude eddy energy decrease, and thus the degree of high-latitude temperature change amplification. There is a general tendency in the experiments for the northern and western United States to become wetter, while the southern and eastern portions dry. However, there is much variability from run to run, with different regions showing different degrees of sensitivity to the parameters tested. The results for the western United States depend most on model resolution; those for the central United States, on the sea-surface temperature gradient and the degree of mid-latitude ocean warming; and those for the eastern United States, on model sensitivity. The changes in particular seasons depend on changes in other seasons, and will therefore be sensitive to the realism of the ground hydrology parameterization.
Rind, D.↗
Range data description based on multiple characteristics
An algorithm for describing range images based on Mean curvature (H) and Gaussian curvature (K) is presented. Range images are unique in that they directly approximate the physical surfaces of a real world 3-D scene. The curvature parameters are derived from the fundamental theorems of differential geometry and provides visible invariant pixel labels that can be used to characterize the scene. The sign of H and K can be used to classify each pixel into one of eight possible surface types. Due to the sensitivity of these parameters to noise the resulting HK-sing map does not directly identify surfaces in the range images and must be further processed. A region growing algorithm based on modeling the scene points with a Markov Random Field (MRF) of variable neighborhood size and edge models is suggested. This approach allows the integration of information from multiple characteristics in an efficient way. The performance of the proposed algorithm on a number of synthetic and real range images is discussed.
Al-Hujazi, Ezzet↗
Electric accumulation of millicharged particles
A terrestrial population of millicharged particles that interact significantly with normal matter can arise if they make up a dark matter subcomponent or if they are light enough to be produced in cosmic-ray air showers. Such particles thermalize to terrestrial temperatures through repeated scatters with normal matter in Earth’s environment. We show that a simple electrified shell (for example, a Van de Graaff generator) functions as an efficient accumulator of such room-temperature millicharged particles, parametrically enhancing their local density by as much as 12 orders of magnitude. This can be used to boost the sensitivity of any detector housed in the shell’s interior, such as ion traps and tests of Coulomb’s law. In a companion paper, we apply this specifically to Cavendish tests of Coulomb’s law, and we show that a well-established setup can probe a large region of unexplored parameter space, with sensitivity to the irreducible density of millicharged particles generated from cosmic rays that outperforms future accelerator searches for sub-GeV masses.
Berlin, Asher [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000211561482)↗
Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology
The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.
biomechanics↗
Impact of Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Variables into the PSU/NCAR MM5
Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.
Lapenta, William M.↗
Insensitive control technology development
THe investigation of two insensitive controller synthesis techniques was reported. The finite dimensional inverse approach produces a time varying insensitive controller and/or parameter identifier by constructing inverse functions derived from a finite number of input output pair relationships. The MD/IM concept relies on the information matrix theory that was developed in the estimation and identification field. The MD/IM synthesis technique is based on the hypothesis that minimizing the information matrix will reduce system identifiability and consequently system sensitivity to uncertain parameters. The controllers designed with both techniques were evaluated on a realistic C-5A aircraft flight control problem. Results indicate that the FDI controller is more suited to trajectory type problems because of its time varying nature. The MD/IM controller performed as well as the top-rated controllers of the initial effort and has direct application to aircraft flight control problems.
Harvey, C. A.↗
Standard methods for filled hole tension testing of textile composites
The effects of two test specimen geometry parameters, the specimen width and W/D ratio, on filled-hole tensile strength were determined for textile composite materials. Test data generated by Boeing and Lockheed on 2-D and 3-D braids, and 3-D weaves were used to make these evaluations. The investigation indicated that filled-hole tensile-strength showed little sensitivity to either parameter. Test specimen configurations used in open-hole tension tests, such as those suggested by ASTM D5766 - Standard Test Method for Open Hole Tensile Strength of Polymer Matrix Composite Laminates or those proposed by MIL-HDBK-17-lD should provide adequate results for material comparisons studies. Comparisons of the materials' open-hole and filled-hole tensile strengths indicated that the latter were generally lower than the former. The 3-D braids were the exception; their filled-hole strengths were unexpected larger than their open-hole strengths. However, these increases were small compared to the scatter in the data. Thus, filled hole tension may be a critical design consideration for textile composite materials.
Portanova, M. A.↗
One-way Doppler extractor
This paper presents a feasibility analysis, tradeoffs, and implementation for a one-way Doppler extractor system. A Doppler error analysis is discussed which shows that quantization error is a primary source of Doppler measurement error. Several competing extraction techniques are compared, and a 'Vernier' technique is presented which obtains high Doppler resolution with low-speed logic. Parameter tradeoffs and sensitivities for this Vernier technique are discussed, leading to a hardware design configuration. Also presented is a performance evaluation of the resulting breadboard model that verifies the theoretical performance predictions. The breadboard model contains the circuitry to interface with an S-band transponder, to extract the Doppler and time-interval counts, to compute navigational parameters by means of a microprocessor, and to display the results. Performance tests have verified that the breadboard is capable of extracting Doppler, on an S-band signal, to an accuracy of better than 0.02 hertz for a one-second averaging period. This corresponds to a range rate error of no more than 3 millimeters per second.
Nossen, E. J.↗
Estimating the Concentration of Large Raindrops from Polarimetric Radar and Disdrometer Observations
Estimation of rainfall integral parameters, including radar observables, and empirical relations between them are sensitive to the truncation of the drop size distribution (DSD), particularly at the large drop end. The sensitivity of rainfall integral parameters to the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) is exacerbated at C‐band since resonance effects are pronounced for large drops in excess of 5 mm diameter (D). Due to sampling limitations, it is often difficult to reliably estimate D(sub max) with disdrometers. The resulting uncertainties in D(sub max0 potentially increase errors in radar retrieval methods, particularly at C‐band, that rely on disdrometer observations for DSD input to radar models. In fact, D(sub max) is typically an assumed DSD parameter in the development of radar retrieval methods. Because of these very uncertainties, it is difficult to independently confirm disdrometer estimates of D(sub max) with polarimetric radar observations. A couple of approaches can be taken to reduce uncertainty in large drop measurement. Longer integration times can be used for the collection of larger disdrometer samples. However, integration periods must be consistent with a radar resolution volume (RRV) and the temporal and spatial scales of the physical processes affecting the DSD therein. Multiple co‐located disdrometers can be combined into a network to increase the sample size within a RRV. However, over a reasonable integration period, a single disdrometer sample volume is many orders of magnitudes less than a RRV so it is not practical to devise a network of disdrometers that has an equivalent volume to a typical RRV. Since knowledge of DSD heterogeneity and large drop occurrence in time and space is lacking, the specific accuracy or even general representativeness of disdrometer based D(sub max) and large drop concentration estimates within a RRV are currently unknown. To address this complex issue, we begin with a simpler question. Is the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops (D > 5 mm) in disdrometer observations, either stand alone or networked, generally representative and consistent with polarimetric radar observations? We first show from simulations that the concentration of large (D > 5 mm) rain drops (N(sub T5)) can be estimated from polarimetric observations of specific differential phase (K(sub dp)) and differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)), N(sub T5)=F(K(sub dp),Z(sub dr)), or horizontal reflectivity (Z(sub h)) and Z(sub dr), N(sub T5)=(Z(sub h),Z(sub dr)). We assess the error associated with polarimetric retrieval of N(sub T5), including sensitivity to D(sub max) parameterization assumptions and measurement error in the radar simulations. Polarimetric measurements at S‐band and C‐band will then be used to retrieve estimates of N(sub T5) and compared to disdrometer estimates of N(sub T5). After careful consideration of retrieval error, we will check consistency between disdrometer and polarimetric radar estimates of N(sub T5) and the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops in a variety of precipitating regimes using data from NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) program, including field campaigns such as MC3E (Oklahoma) and IFloodS (Iowa) and extended measurements over Huntsville, Alabama and NASA Wallops Flight Facility in coastal Virginia.
Carey, Lawrence D.↗
Remote sensing of earth terrain
In remote sensing, the encountered geophysical media such as agricultural canopy, forest, snow, or ice are inhomogeneous and contain scatters in a random manner. Furthermore, weather conditions such as fog, mist, or snow cover can intervene the electromagnetic observation of the remotely sensed media. In the modelling of such media accounting for the weather effects, a multi-layer random medium model has been developed. The scattering effects of the random media are described by three-dimensional correlation functions with variances and correlation lengths corresponding to the fluctuation strengths and the physical geometry of the inhomogeneities, respectively. With proper consideration of the dyadic Green's function and its singularities, the strong fluctuation theory is used to calculate the effective permittivities which account for the modification of the wave speed and attenuation in the presence of the scatters. The distorted Born approximation is then applied to obtain the correlations of the scattered fields. From the correlation of the scattered field, calculated is the complete set of scattering coefficients for polarimetric radar observation or brightness temperature in passive radiometer applications. In the remote sensing of terrestrial ecosystems, the development of microwave remote sensing technology and the potential of SAR to measure vegetation structure and biomass have increased effort to conduct experimental and theoretical researches on the interactions between microwave and vegetation canopies. The overall objective is to develop inversion algorithms to retrieve biophysical parameters from radar data. In this perspective, theoretical models and experimental data are methodically interconnected in the following manner: Due to the complexity of the interactions involved, all theoretical models have limited domains of validity; the proposed solution is to use theoretical models, which is validated by experiments, to establish the region in which the radar response is most sensitive to the parameters of interest; theoretically simulated data will be used to generate simple invertible models over the region. For applications to the remote sensing of sea ice, the developed theoretical models need to be tested with experimental measurements. With measured ground truth such as ice thickness, temperature, salinity, and structure, input parameters to the theoretical models can be obtained to calculate the polarimetric scattering coefficients for radars or brightness temperature for radiometers and then compare theoretical results with experimental data. Validated models will play an important role in the interpretation and classification of ice in monitoring global ice cover from space borne remote sensors in the future. We present an inversion algorithm based on a recently developed inversion method referred to as the Renormalized Source-Type Integral Equation approach. The objective of this method is to overcome some of the limitations and difficulties of the iterative Born technique. It recasts the inversion, which is nonlinear in nature, in terms of the solution of a set of linear equations; however, the final inversion equation is still nonlinear. The derived inversion equation is an exact equation which sums up the iterative Neuman (or Born) series in a closed form and, thus, is a valid representation even in the case when the Born series diverges; hence, the name Renormalized Source-Type Integral Equation Approach.
Yueh, Herng-Aung↗
Design constraints of the LST fine guidance sensor
The LST Fine Guidance Sensor design is shaped by the rate of occurrence of suitable guide stars, the competition for telescope focal plane space with the Science Instruments, and the sensitivity of candidate image motion sensors. The relationship between these parameters is presented, and sensitivity to faint stars is shown to be of prime importance. An interferometric technique of image motion sensing is shown to have improved sensitivity and, therefore, a reduced focal plane area requirement in comparison with other candidate techniques (image-splitting prism and image dissector tube techniques). Another design requirement is speed in acquiring the guide star in order to maximize the time available for science observations. The design constraints are shown parametrically, and modelling results are presented.
Wissinger, A. B.↗
Uncertainty Analysis of the Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System
This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS). This study is focused on the uncertainty involved in setting the independent variables during the calibration experiment. By knowing the uncertainty in the calibration system, the fundamental limits of the calibration accuracy of a particular balance can be determined. A brief description of the SVS mechanical system is provided. A mathematical model is developed to describe the mechanical system elements. A sensitivity analysis of these parameters is carried out through numerical simulations to assess the sensitivity of the total uncertainty to the elemental error sources. These sensitivity coefficients provide valuable information regarding the relative significance of the elemental sources of error. An example calculation of the total uncertainty for a specific balance is provided. Results from this uncertainty analysis are specific to the Single-Vector System, but the approach is broad in nature and therefore applicable to other measurement and calibration systems.
Parker, Peter A.↗
Actinic Flux Calculations: A Model Sensitivity Study
calculate direct and diffuse surface irradiance and actinic flux (downwelling (2p) and total (4p)) for the reference model. Sensitivity analysis has shown that the accuracy of the radiative transfer flux calculations for a unit ETS (i.e. atmospheric transmittance) together with a numerical interpolation technique for the constituents' vertical profiles is better than 1% for SZA less than 70(sub o) and wavelengths longer than 310 nm. The differences increase for shorter wavelengths and larger SZA, due to the differences in pseudo-spherical correction techniques and vertical discretetization among the codes. Our sensitivity study includes variation of ozone cross-sections, ETS spectra and the effects of wavelength shifts between vacuum and air scales. We also investigate the effects of aerosols on the spectral flux components in the UV and visible spectral regions. The "aerosol correction factors" (ACFs) were calculated at discrete wavelengths and different SZAs for each flux component (direct, diffuse, reflected) and prescribed IPMMI aerosol parameters. Finally, the sensitivity study was extended to calculation of selected photolysis rates coefficients.
Krotkov, Nickolay A.↗
Tolerance and UQ4SIM: Nimble Uncertainty Documentation and Analysis Software
Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and variabilities is a necessary first step toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. The basic premise of uncertainty markup is to craft a tolerance and tagging mini-language that offers a natural, unobtrusive presentation and does not depend on parsing each type of input file format. Each file is marked up with tolerances and optionally, associated tags that serve to label the parameters and their uncertainties. The evolution of such a language, often called a Domain Specific Language or DSL, is given in [1], but in final form it parallels tolerances specified on an engineering drawing, e.g., 1 +/- 0.5, 5 +/- 10%, 2 +/- 10 where % signifies percent and o signifies order of magnitude. Tags, necessary for error propagation, can be added by placing a quotation-mark-delimited tag after the tolerance, e.g., 0.7 +/- 20% 'T_effective'. In addition, tolerances might have different underlying distributions, e.g., Uniform, Normal, or Triangular, or the tolerances may merely be intervals due to lack of knowledge (uncertainty). Finally, to address pragmatic considerations such as older models that require specific number-field formats, C-style format specifiers can be appended to the tolerance like so, 1.35 +/- 10U_3.2f. As an example of use, consider figure 1, where a chemical reaction input file is has been marked up to include tolerances and tags per table 1. Not only does the technique provide a natural method of specifying tolerances, but it also servers as in situ documentation of model uncertainties. This tolerance language comes with a utility to strip the tolerances (and tags), to provide a path to the nominal model parameter file. And, as shown in [1], having the ability to quickly mark and identify model parameter uncertainties facilitates error propagation, which in turn yield output uncertainties.
Kleb, Bil↗
Instrumentation monitors transported material through variety of parameters
Transport instrumentation system used in transporting sensitive or delicate equipment measures the environmental parameters to which the equipment is exposed and records them constantly in time reference. The system provides a complete historical record plus the capability of taking corrective action where indicated by real time readout.
Hanson, H. S.↗