SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “performance decline”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1999

A Study of Short-Term Variations in Jupiter's Synchrotron Emission

Earth-based observations of the flux density and polarization of Jupiter's microwave emission provide useful data to test and constrain computational models of synchrotron radio emission from the inner regions of the Jovian magnetosphere. Stimulated by the sudden brightening of the synchrotron emission caused by the impacts of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in 1994, the observational techniques of the NASA-JPL Jupiter Patrol were modified to search for other short-term variations unrelated to the SL-9 event. The characteristics of the improved data base are described and the results of the search for variability on timescales of 5 to 100 days are reported. The first results of Jupiter observations from the Goldstone-Apple Valley Radio Telescope (GAVRT) project are reported and included in the data base. GAVRT is a new project in science education that engages middle- and high school students in science research. The paper also includes new observations of Jupiter's rotational beamed emission, commonly known as the "beaming curve", that describes the observed flux density as a function of System III longitude. The shape of the "beaming curve" is known to change with the parameter D(sub E), the declination of the earth relative to Jupiter's rotational equator. While the history of Jupiter's beaming curve exhibits remarkable stability and repeatability as a function of D(sub E), there may be evidence for short term departures from the nominal curves. Data supporting this tentative conclusion are presented. Preliminary results of a study comparing the observations and computer simulations of the synchrotron beaming curve will also be presented and discussed (see companion paper, "Modeling Jupiter's Synchrotron Emission", by Bolton et. al.). The research reported in this paper was performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Klein, M.J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations

Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rise in popularity over the past few years as the technology has matured and costs have declined, and support for clean transportation has promoted awareness, increased charging opportunities, and facilitated EV adoption. Suitably, a vast body of literature has been produced exploring various facets of EVs and their role in transportation and energy systems. This paper provides a timely and comprehensive review of scientific studies looking at various aspects of EVs, including: (a) an overview of the status of the light-duty-EV market and current projections for future adoption; (b) insights on market opportunities beyond light-duty EVs; (c) a review of cost and performance evolution for batteries, power electronics, and electric machines that are key components of EV success; (d) charging-infrastructure status with a focus on modeling and studies that are used to project charging-infrastructure requirements and the economics of public charging; (e) an overview of the impact of EV charging on power systems at multiple scales, ranging from bulk power systems to distribution networks; (f) insights into life-cycle cost and emissions studies focusing on EVs; and (g) future expectations and synergies between EVs and other emerging trends and technologies. The goal of this paper is to provide readers with a snapshot of the current state of the art and help navigate this vast literature by comparing studies critically and comprehensively and synthesizing general insights. This detailed review paints a positive picture for the future of EVs for on-road transportation, and the authors remain hopeful that remaining technology, regulatory, societal, behavioral, and business-model barriers can be addressed over time to support a transition toward cleaner, more efficient, and affordable transportation solutions for all.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fluid mechanics of directional solidification at reduced gravity

The primary objective of the proposed research is to provide additional groundbased support for the flight experiment 'Casting and Solidification Technology' (CAST). This experiment is to be performed in the International Microgravity Laboratory-1 (IML-1) scheduled to be flown on a space shuttle mission scheduled for 1992. In particular, we will provide data on the convective motion and freckle formation during directional solidification of NH4Cl from its aqueous solution at simulated parameter ranges equivalent to reducing the gravity from the sea-level value down to 0.1 g or lower. The secondary objectives of the proposed research are to examine the stability phenomena associated with the onset of freckles and the mechanisms for their subsequent growth and decline (to eventual demise of some) by state-of-the-art imaging techniques and to formulate mathematical models for the prediction of the observed phenomena.

Chen, C. F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of hardening mechanisms and size effects in proton-irradiated HT-9 steels

Ferritic/martensitic steels, such as HT-9, are known for their complex microstructural features and mechanical properties. Here in this paper, in-situ micro-tensile tests and traditional fractography methods were utilized to study the fracture behavior of proton-irradiated HT-9 steels. First, to evaluate the viability of micro-tensile tests for nuclear material qualification process, meso-tensile tests on as-received HT-9 steels were performed. Fracture mechanisms of unirradiated HT-9 steels at both length scales were compared and underlying mechanisms discussed. The direct comparison of micro- and meso-scale data shows a distinctive size effect demonstrated by the increase in yield stress (YS). Upon completion of initial assessment, specimens were irradiated with 4 MeV + protons to three fluences, all of which were lower than 0.01 displacements per atom (dpa). As expected, the YS increases with irradiation. However, at 7 × 10 -3 dpa, the reversal of the trend was observed, and the YS exhibited sharp decline. We demonstrate that at lower length scales, grain structure has a more profound impact on the mechanical properties of irradiated materials, which provides information needed to fill in the gap in current understanding of the HT-9 fracture at different length scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microbial seasonality promotes soil respiratory carbon emission in natural ecosystems: A modeling study

Seasonality is a key feature of the biosphere and the seasonal dynamics of soil carbon (C) emissions represent a fundamental mechanism regulating the terrestrial–climate interaction. We applied a microbial explicit model—CLM-Microbe—to evaluate the impacts of microbial seasonality on soil C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Additionally, the CLM-Microbe model was validated in simulating belowground respiratory fluxes, that is, microbial respiration, root respiration, and soil respiration at the site level. On average, the CLM-Microbe model explained 72% (n = 19, p < 0.0001), 65% (n = 19, p < 0.0001), and 71% (n = 18, p < 0.0001) of the variation in microbial respiration, root respiration, and soil respiration, respectively. We then compared the model simulations of soil respiratory fluxes and soil organic C content in top 1 m between the CLM-Microbe model with (CLM-Microbe) and without (CLM-Microbe_wos) seasonal dynamics of soil microbial biomass in natural biomes. Removing soil microbial seasonality reduced model performance in simulating microbial respiration and soil respiration, but led to slight differences in simulating root respiration. Compared with the CLM-Microbe, the CLM-Microbe_wos underestimated the annual flux of microbial respiration by 0.6%–32% and annual flux of soil respiration by 0.4%–29% in natural biomes. Correspondingly, the CLM-Microbe_wos estimated higher soil organic C content in top 1 m (0.2%–7%) except for the sites in Arctic and boreal regions. Our findings suggest that soil microbial seasonality enhances soil respiratory C emissions, leading to a decline in SOC storage. An explicit representation of soil microbial seasonality represents a critical improvement for projecting soil C decomposition and reducing the uncertainties in global C cycle projection under the changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2004

Comparison of different cooling regimes within a shortened liquid cooling/warming garment on physiological and psychological comfort during exercise

The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of different cooling regime intensities to maintain physiological and subjective comfort during physical exertion levels comparable to that engaged in during extravehicular activities (EVA) in space. We studied eight subjects (six males, two females) donned in our newly developed physiologically based shortened liquid cooling/warming garment (SLCWG). Rigorous (condition 1) and mild (condition 2) water temperature cooling regimes were compared at physical exertion levels comparable to that performed during EVA to ascertain the effectiveness of a lesser intensity of cooling in maintaining thermal comfort, thus reducing energy consumption in the portable life support system. Exercise intensity was varied across stages of the session. Finger temperature, rectal temperature, and subjective perception of overall body and hand comfort were assessed. Finger temperature was significantly higher in the rigorous cooling condition and showed a consistent increase across exercise stages, likely due to the restriction of heat extraction because of the intensive cold. In the mild cooling condition, finger temperature exhibited an overall decline with cooling, indicating greater heat extraction from the body. Rectal temperature was not significantly different between conditions, and showed a steady increase over exercise stages in both rigorous and mild cooling conditions. Ratings of overall comfort were 30% higher (more positive) and more stable in mild cooling (p<0.001). The mild cooling regime was more effective than rigorous cooling in allowing the process of heat exchange to occur, thus maintaining thermal homeostasis and subjective comfort during physical exertion.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

DOE OSTI2020

The parallelism motifs of genomic data analysis

Genomic datasets are growing dramatically as the cost of sequencing continues to decline and small sequencing devices become available. Enormous community databases store and share these data with the research community, but some of these genomic data analysis problems require large-scale computational platforms to meet both the memory and computational requirements. These applications differ from scientific simulations that dominate the workload on high-end parallel systems today and place different requirements on programming support, software libraries and parallel architectural design. For example, they involve irregular communication patterns such as asynchronous updates to shared data structures. We consider several problems in high-performance genomics analysis, including alignment, profiling, clustering and assembly for both single genomes and metagenomes. We identify some of the common computational patterns or ‘motifs’ that help inform parallelization strategies and compare our motifs to some of the established lists, arguing that at least two key patterns, sorting and hashing, are missing. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bacterial response to the 2021 Orange County, California, oil spill was episodic but subtle relative to natural fluctuations

ABSTRACT An oil spill began in October 2021 off the coast of Orange County, California, releasing 24,696 gallons of crude oil into coastal environments. Although oil spills, such as this one, are recurrent accidents along the California coast, no prior studies have been performed to examine the severity of the local bacterial response. A coastal 10-year time series of short-read metagenomes located within the impacted area allowed us to quantify the magnitude and duration of the disturbance relative to natural fluctuations. We found that the largest change in bacterial beta-diversity occurred at the end of October. The change in taxonomic beta-diversity corresponded with an increase in the sulfur-oxidizing clade Candidatus Thioglobus, an increase in the total relative abundance of potential hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, and an anomalous decline in the picocyanobacteria Synechococcus . Similarly, changes in function were related to anomalous declines in photosynthetic pathways and anomalous increases in sulfur metabolism pathways as well as aromatic degradation pathways. There was a lagged response in taxonomy and function to peaks in total PAHs. One week after peaks in total PAH concentrations, the largest shifts in taxonomy were observed, and 1 week after the taxonomy shifts were observed, unique functional changes were seen. This response pattern was observed twice during our sampling period, corresponding with the combined effect of resuspended PAHs and increased nutrient concentrations due to physical transport events. Thus, the impact of the spill on bacterial communities was temporally extended and demonstrates the need for continued monitoring for longer than 3 months after initial oil exposure. IMPORTANCE Oil spills are common occurrences in waterways, releasing contaminants into the aquatic environment that persist for long periods of time. Bacterial communities are rapid responders to environmental disturbances, such as oil spills. Within bacterial communities, some members will be susceptible to the disturbance caused by crude oil components and will decline in abundance, whereas others will be opportunistic and will be able to use crude oil components for their metabolism. In many cases, when an oil spill occurs, it is difficult to assess the oil spill’s impact because no samples were collected prior to the accident. Here, we examined the bacterial response to the 2021 Orange County oil spill using a 10-year time series that lies within the impacted area. The results presented here are significant because (i) susceptible and opportunistic taxa to oil spills within the coastal California environment are identified and (ii) the magnitude and duration of the in situ bacterial response is quantified for the first time.

Brock, Melissa L. (ORCID:0000000340329241)↗

NASA NTRS1984

Submilliarcsecond VLBI Observations of the Close Pair GC 1342+662 and GC 1342+663

Differential VLBI was simultaneously performed on the source pair GC 1342+662 and GC 1342+663 (4.4-arcminute separation) using S-band on the Goldstone/Madrid baseline. These measurements were acquired on two separate observing sessions: 30 December 1982 and 14 May 1983. The change in separation of GC 1342+662 relative to GC 1342+663 between the two epochs was 0.03 + or 0.08 milliarcsecond. The differences of the relative position measurements between epochs of GC 1342+662 relative to GC 1342+663 were -0.29 + or - 0.05 milliarcsecond in right ascension and 0.14 + or - 0.09 milliarcsecond in declination. These measurements demonstrate submilliarcsecond accuracy and repeatability. The discrepancies outside of the formal uncertainties could be attributed to the intrinsic properties of the sources such as structure and to a lesser probability, proper motion. These discrepancies could also be attributed to excursions in UT1-UTC of about four times the quoted BIH uncertainty.

Morabito, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Submilliarcsecond VLBI observations of the close pair GC 1342 + 662 and GC 1342 + 663

Differential VLBI was simultaneously performed on the source pair GC 1342 + 662 and GC 1342 + 663 (4.4-arcminute separation) using S-band on the Goldstone/Madrid baseline. These measurements were acquired on two separate observing sessions: 30 December 1982 and 14 May 1983. The change in separation of GC 1342 + 662 relative to GC 1342 + 663 between the two epochs was 0.03 + or - 0.08 milliarcsecond. The differences of the relative position measurements between epochs of GC 1342 + 662 relative to GC 1342 + 663 were -0.29 + or - 0.05 milliarcsecond in right ascension and 0.14 + or 0.09 milliarcsecond in declination. These measurements demonstrate submilliarcsecond accuracy and repeatability. The discrepancies outside of the formal uncertainties could be attributed to the intrinsic properties of the sources such as structure and to a lesser probability, proper motion. These discrepancies could also be attributed to excursions in UT1-UTC of about four times the quoted BIH uncertainty.

Morabito, D. D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Variation-Resilient FeFET-Based In-Memory Computing Leveraging Probabilistic Deep Learning

Reliability issues stemming from device level nonidealities of nonvolatile emerging technologies like ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FeFETs), especially at scaled dimensions, cause substantial degradation in the accuracy of in-memory crossbar-based AI systems. Here, in this work, we present a variation-aware design technique to characterize the device level variations and to mitigate their impact on hardware accuracy employing a Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach. An effective conductance variation model is derived from the experimental measurements of cycle-to-cycle (C2C) and device-to-device (D2D) variations performed on FeFET devices fabricated using 28 nm high-k metal gate technology. The variations were found to be a function of different conductance states within the given programming range, which sharply contrasts earlier efforts where a fixed variation dispersion was considered for all conductance values. Such variation characteristics formulated for three different device sizes at different read voltages were provided as prior variation information to the BNN to yield a more exact and reliable inference. Near-ideal accuracy for shallow networks (MLP5 and LeNet models) on the MNIST dataset and limited accuracy decline by ~3.8%–16.1% for deeper AlexNet models on CIFAR10 dataset under a wide range of variations corresponding to different device sizes and read voltages, demonstrates the efficacy of our proposed device-algorithm co-design technique.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Predictive Model for Survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Generic E. coli in Soil Amended with Untreated Animal Manure

Abstract This study aimed at developing a predictive model that captures the influences of a variety of agricultural and environmental variables and is able to predict the concentrations of enteric bacteria in soil amended with untreated Biological Soil Amendments of Animal Origin (BSAAO) under dynamic conditions. We developed and validated a Random Forest model using data from a longitudinal field study conducted in mid‐Atlantic United States investigating the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli in soils amended with untreated dairy manure, horse manure, or poultry litter. Amendment type, days of rain since the previous sampling day, and soil moisture content were identified as the most influential agricultural and environmental variables impacting concentrations of viable E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli recovered from amended soils. Our model results also indicated that E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli declined at similar rates in amended soils under dynamic field conditions.The Random Forest model accurately predicted changes in viable E. coli concentrations over time under different agricultural and environmental conditions. Our model also accurately characterized the variability of E. coli concentration in amended soil over time by providing upper and lower prediction bound estimates. Cross‐validation results indicated that our model can be potentially generalized to other geographic regions and incorporated into a risk assessment for evaluating the risks associated with application of untreated BSAAO. Our model can be validated for other regions and predictive performance also can be enhanced when data sets from additional geographic regions become available.

Pang, Hao↗

NASA NTRS1993

The impact of U.S. continental outflow on ozone and aerosol distributions over the western Atlantic

Aircraft measurements of selected trace gas species, aerosols, and meteorological parameters were performed in the lower troposphere off the U.S. east coast during August and September 1989 as part of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (CITE 3) expedition. In this paper, we examine these data to assess the impact of continental outflow on western Atlantic O3 and small aerosol budgets. Results show that mixed layer (ML) O3 concentrations and small aerosol number densities (Np) were enhanced by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, within air masses of predominantly continental origin compared with clean maritime background air. These enhancements exhibited a marked altitude dependence, declining rapidly above the ML to the point where only slight to moderate differences in O3 and Np, respectively, were notable above 2.4 km. Within continentally influenced ML's, both O3 and Np were correlated with CO, exhibiting linear regression slopes averaging 0.4 ppbv (O3)/ppbv(CO) for O3 and 7.7 (particles/cc)/ppbv(CO) for Np and indicating a primarily anthropogenic origin for the observed enhancement of these species. Comparisons between profiles in continental and background maritime air masses suggest that photochemical production below 1.4-km altitude adds over 10% to western Atlantic tropospheric column O3 abundance in continental outflow regimes. For aerosols, eastward advection of low-level continental air contributes an average net flux of 2.8 metric tons of submicron (accumulation mode) particles per kilometer of shoreline per day to the western Atlantic troposphere.

Anderson, B. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗