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NASA NTRS2014

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRS1982

Automated optimum design of wing structures. Deterministic and probabilistic approaches

The automated optimum design of airplane wing structures subjected to multiple behavior constraints is described. The structural mass of the wing is considered the objective function. The maximum stress, wing tip deflection, root angle of attack, and flutter velocity during the pull up maneuver (static load), the natural frequencies of the wing structure, and the stresses induced in the wing structure due to landing and gust loads are suitably constrained. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches are used for finding the stresses induced in the airplane wing structure due to landing and gust loads. A wing design is represented by a uniform beam with a cross section in the form of a hollow symmetric double wedge. The airfoil thickness and chord length are the design variables, and a graphical procedure is used to find the optimum solutions. A supersonic wing design is represented by finite elements. The thicknesses of the skin and the web and the cross sectional areas of the flanges are the design variables, and nonlinear programming techniques are used to find the optimum solution.

Rao, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Creep/Rupture Behavior of Melt-Infiltrated SiC/SiC Composites Being Investigated

The failure behavior of melt-infiltrated SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites is under investigation at the NASA Glenn Research Center as part of NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Program. This material was originally developed under the High Speed Research Office's Enabling Propulsion Materials Program. Creep and rupture data provide accelerated testing information to predict material behavior under engine use situations (1500 to 2400 F). This information gives insights into various material development paths to improve composites as well as improve understanding of failure mechanisms. The left figure shows the fracture surface of a CMC material following over 200 hr of testing at 2400 F. This surface demonstrates the kind of fibrous pullout desirable for maximum crack deflection, hence non-brittle failure. Microscopy suggests that creep and rupture of these materials can best be considered as a probabilistic property, rather than a material property. Fiber failure occurs first in isolated regions, while stronger adjacent fibers remain intact. The right figure shows a region where oxide deposits blur and round the fiber images. Because the oxidation kinetics of SiC are well understood, this oxide scale can be used as a measure of the length of time various regions of the composites have been exposed to the environment, hence providing vital information regarding the sequence of failure. The oxide scale in the right figure indicates an early failure of this tow of fibers, whereas adjacent tows remain oxide free, suggesting failure much later in time. The path of various cracks can be followed throughout the composite in this manner, suggesting failure mechanisms.

Hurst, Janet B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Investigation of air transportation technology at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1984

Three projects sponsored by the Joint University Program at MIT are summarized. Two projects were focussed on the potential application of Loran-C in flying nonprecision approaches to general aviation runways, and the third project involved research on aircraft icing. In one Loran-C project, Aircraft Approach Guidance Using Relative Loran-C Navigation, the concept was flight tested. It used the difference in TD's from those of the touchdown point to simplify and speed navigation computer processing and took advantage of the short term accuracy of less than 100 feet for Loran-C. The goal of the project, Probabilistic Modelling of Loran-C Error for Nonprecision Approaches, was to develop a mathematical model which would predict the probability that an approach flown to a runway with a particular Loran-C receiver would fall within a given standard. The Aircraft Icing project focussed on measurement of droplet trajectories and droplet impingement/runback characteristics and measurement of real time ice accretion using ultrasonic pulse echo techniques.

Simpson, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

Graves, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA's Human Research Program at The Glenn Research Center: Progress and Opportunities

The NASA Human Research Program is aimed at correcting problems in critical areas that place NASA human spaceflight missions at risk due to shortfalls in astronaut health, safety and performance. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) and partners from Ohio are significant contributors to this effort. This presentation describes several areas of GRC emphasis, the first being NASA s path to creating exercise hardware requirements and protocols that mitigate the effects of long duration spaceflight. Computational simulations will be a second area that is discussed. This includes deterministic models that simulate the effects of spaceflight on the human body, as well as probabilistic models that bound and quantify the probability that adverse medical incidents will happen during an exploration mission. Medical technology development for exploration will be the final area to be discussed.

Nall, Marsha↗

NASA NTRS2014

Object-Oriented/Data-Oriented Design of a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Algorithm

Over the past decade, there has been much progress towards improved phenomenological modeling and algorithmic updates for the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, which provides a probabilistic physical simulation of gas Rows. These improvements have largely been based on the work of the originator of the DSMC method, Graeme Bird. Of primary importance are improved chemistry, internal energy, and physics modeling and a reduction in time to solution. These allow for an expanded range of possible solutions In altitude and velocity space. NASA's current production code, the DSMC Analysis Code (DAC), is well-established and based on Bird's 1994 algorithms written in Fortran 77 and has proven difficult to upgrade. A new DSMC code is being developed in the C++ programming language using object-oriented and data-oriented design paradigms to facilitate the inclusion of the recent improvements and future development activities. The development efforts on the new code, the Multiphysics Algorithm with Particles (MAP), are described, and performance comparisons are made with DAC.

Liechty, Derek S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

Tai, Jimmy C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of Phase-Type Stochastic Petri Nets With Discrete and Continuous Timing

The Petri net formalism is useful in studying many discrete-state, discrete-event systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and other complex behavior. As a bipartite graph, the net can conveniently capture salient aspects of the system. As a mathematical tool, the net can specify an analyzable state space. Indeed, one can reason about certain qualitative properties (from state occupancies) and how they arise (the sequence of events leading there). By introducing deterministic or random delays, the model is forced to sojourn in states some amount of time, giving rise to an underlying stochastic process, one that can be specified in a compact way and capable of providing quantitative, probabilistic measures. We formalize a new non-Markovian extension to the Petri net that captures both discrete and continuous timing in the same model. The approach affords efficient, stationary analysis in most cases and efficient transient analysis under certain restrictions. Moreover, this new formalism has the added benefit in modeling fidelity stemming from the simultaneous capture of discrete- and continuous-time events (as opposed to capturing only one and approximating the other). We show how the underlying stochastic process, which is non-Markovian, can be resolved into simpler Markovian problems that enjoy efficient solutions. Solution algorithms are provided that can be easily programmed.

Jones, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Overview of the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Aeronautics Research Program in Rotorcraft Crashworthiness

This paper provides an overview of rotorcraft crashworthiness research being conducted at NASA Langley Research Center under sponsorship of the Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) Aeronautics Program. The research is focused in two areas: development of an externally deployable energy attenuating concept and improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness. The deployable energy absorber (DEA) is a composite honeycomb structure, with a unique flexible hinge design that allows the honeycomb to be packaged and remain flat until needed for deployment. The capabilities of the DEA have been demonstrated through component crush tests and vertical drop tests of a retrofitted fuselage section onto different surfaces or terrain. The research on improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness is focused in several areas including simulating occupant responses and injury risk assessment, predicting multi-terrain impact, and utilizing probabilistic analysis methods. A final task is to perform a system-integrated simulation of a full-scale helicopter crash test onto a rigid surface. A brief description of each research task is provided along with a summary of recent accomplishments.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Overview of the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Aeronautics Research Program in Rotorcraft Crashworthiness

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

Monte Carlo Method↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic risk analysis of flying the space shuttle with and without fuel turbine discharge temperature redline protection

An exact mathematical model is presented of the Space Shuttle Main Engine computer voting logic in the presence of High Pressure Fuel Turbine (HPFT) overtemperature events and fuel turbine temperature sensor failures. The model provides estimates of the probability of erroneous engine shutdown and the probability of not detecting a HPFT overtemperature event. Because it is believed that the likelihood of sensor failures and overtemperature events in the HPFT greatly overshadows those in the High Pressure Oxygen Turbine (HPOT), this modeling effort focused on the HPFT. However, because the redline protection logic is the same for both turbines, estimation of the model parameters using relevant HPOT data would provide estimates of the risk of erroneous engine shutdown and an undetected overtemperature event in the HPOT. Because of the complexity of the model, it was necessary to program the solution which thus makes it feasible to accommodate a changing data base. This is considered to be of great interest because of the subjective nature in determining the relevancy of certain failures and the fact that the data base is constantly changing as a result of the frequent engine tests.

Howell, Leonard↗