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At least 379 records · Page 21

Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Component Test (ComTest) Project for 760*C Steam Conditions

ComTest is a $27M Department of Energy-funded project. Phase I, which began in November 2015, served to identify the technology gaps, as well as the scope and cost of required testing. Phase II, which was awarded in December 2018, includes an advanced manufacturing effort to complete U.S. based supply chain development for full commercial scale (800-850 MWe) AUSC components made of nickel-based alloys, components operating at up to 760°C. Completion of Phase II scheduled for September 30, 2021. Strategic Objectives of U.S. AUSC Project include: Power Plant Efficiency Improvements –Develop cost-effective, reliable technologies to improve the efficiency of new and existing high-temperature advanced generation power plants. Close gaps to achieve readiness for commercial scale demonstration of Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (AUSC) technology. Fabricate full-scale versions of key nickel-based alloy components. Validate capabilities of US supply chain for cost certainty. Support cross-cutting high-temperature generation technologies. Obtain ASME Code approval for new materials, components and processes. Increase power plant steam temperatures for higher cycle efficiency (Note: Average efficiency of US coal-fired fleet = 33% HHV; A-USC plant efficiency over 47% HHV at 1,400°F (760°C) steam temperature).

fireside corrosion↗

Update on the United States Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Program with Full Scale Component Fabrication to Develop Utility Scale Power Plants with 760°C Steam Temperature

Following the successful completion of a 15-year effort to develop and test materials that would allow coal-fired power plants to be operated at advanced ultra-supercritical (A-USC) steam conditions, a United States-based consortium is presently engaged in Phase 2 of a project which includes an advanced manufacturing effort to complete US-based supply chain development for full commercial scale (800-850 MWe) A-USC components made of nickel-based alloys, components operating at up to 760°C. The project, funded under U.S. Department of Energy Award No. DE-FE0025064, falls under the US DOE overall goal to Develop cost-effective, reliable technologies to improve the efficiency of new and existing coal-fired power plants. A-USC steam cycles have the potential to improve cycle efficiency, reduce fuel costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Current development and demonstration efforts are focused on enabling the construction of A-USC plants, operating with steam temperatures as high as 1400°F (760°C) and steam pressures up to 5000 psi (35 MPa), which can potentially increase cycle efficiencies to 47% HHV (higher heating value), or approximately 50% LHV (lower heating value), and reduce CO 2 emissions by roughly 25%, compared to today’s U.S. fleet. A-USC technology provides a lower-cost method to reduce CO 2 emissions, compared to CO 2 capture technologies, while retaining a viable coal option for owners of coal generation assets. Among the specific goals of Phase 2 of the ComTest Project are to: validate that components made from advanced nickel-based alloys can operate and perform under A-USC conditions accelerate the development of a U.S.-based supply chain for the full complement of A-USC components close the remaining gaps and reduce the risks for manufacturing components from advanced materials for commercial demonstration fabricate full-scale versions of selected key components made of nickel-based alloys validate a qualified U.S. supply chain, to provide greater cost certainty for components obtain American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) code approval for new materials, components and processes Additional benefit: Manufacturing technology will be applicable to other advanced fossil energy high temperature cycles, and can support increased flexibility of existing power plants The ComTest project is managed by Energy Industries of Ohio, and technically directed by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., with General Electric designing the A-USC components. As stated earlier, the current phase of the effort is primarily funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, through the National Energy Technology Laboratory. This presentation outlines the motivation for the project, explains the project’s structure and schedule, and provides some of the technical details on the design of the ComTest components.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Update on the United States Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Program with Full Scale Component Fabrication to Develop Utility Scale Power Plants with 760°C Steam Temperature

Following the successful completion of a 15-year effort to develop and test materials that would allow coal-fired power plants to be operated at advanced ultra-supercritical (A-USC) steam conditions, a United States-based consortium is presently engaged in Phase 2 of a project which includes an advanced manufacturing effort to complete US-based supply chain development for full commercial scale (800-850 MWe) A-USC components made of nickel-based alloys, components operating at up to 760°C. The project, funded under U.S. Department of Energy Award No. DE-FE0025064, falls under the US DOE overall goal to Develop cost-effective, reliable technologies to improve the efficiency of new and existing coal-fired power plants. A-USC steam cycles have the potential to improve cycle efficiency, reduce fuel costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Current development and demonstration efforts are focused on enabling the construction of A-USC plants, operating with steam temperatures as high as 1400°F (760°C) and steam pressures up to 5000 psi (35 MPa), which can potentially increase cycle efficiencies to 47% HHV (higher heating value), or approximately 50% LHV (lower heating value), and reduce CO 2 emissions by roughly 25%, compared to today’s U.S. fleet. A-USC technology provides a lower-cost method to reduce CO 2 emissions, compared to CO 2 capture technologies, while retaining a viable coal option for owners of coal generation assets. Among the specific goals of Phase 2 of the ComTest Project are to: validate that components made from advanced nickel-based alloys can operate and perform under A-USC conditions accelerate the development of a U.S.-based supply chain for the full complement of A-USC components close the remaining gaps and reduce the risks for manufacturing components from advanced materials for commercial demonstration fabricate full-scale versions of selected key components made of nickel-based alloys validate a qualified U.S. supply chain, to provide greater cost certainty for components obtain American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) code approval for new materials, components and processes Additional benefit: Manufacturing technology will be applicable to other advanced fossil energy high temperature cycles, and can support increased flexibility of existing power plants The ComTest project is managed by Energy Industries of Ohio, and technically directed by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., with General Electric designing the A-USC components. As stated earlier, the current phase of the effort is primarily funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, through the National Energy Technology Laboratory. This presentation outlines the motivation for the project, explains the project’s structure and schedule, and provides some of the technical details on the design of the ComTest components.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of Quantum Annealing to Nurse Scheduling Problem

Quantum annealing is a promising heuristic method to solve combinatorial optimization problems, and efforts to quantify performance on real-world problems provide insights into how this approach may be best used in practice. We investigate the empirical performance of quantum annealing to solve the Nurse Scheduling Problem (NSP) with hard constraints using the D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealing device. NSP seeks the optimal assignment for a set of nurses to shifts under an accompanying set of constraints on schedule and personnel. After reducing NSP to a novel Ising-type Hamiltonian, we evaluate the solution quality obtained from the D-Wave 2000Q against the constraint requirements as well as the diversity of solutions. For the test problems explored here, our results indicate that quantum annealing recovers satisfying solutions for NSP and suggests the heuristic method is potentially achievable for practical use. Moreover, we observe that solution quality can be greatly improved through the use of reverse annealing, in which it is possible to refine returned results by using the annealing process a second time. We compare the performance of NSP using both forward and reverse annealing methods and describe how this approach might be used in practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-Time Gear-Shift Optimization for an Autonomous Wheel Loader

Off-road vehicles, such as wheel loaders, consume a significant amount of fuel during the transportation of materials. The gear-shifting process is crucial in fuel savings for transportation, and therefore, optimization of gearshifts is important for vehicle control. For an autonomous off-road vehicle, there is potential for more fuel savings by proper coordination of gearshift optimization and optimization of other control inputs. This brief proposes a new method for integrating gear-shifting into transportation optimization for an autonomous wheel loader to minimize fuel consumption. Furthermore, tests conducted on short loading cycles show that this method can save around 10%–20% of fuel on average compared with a conventional gearshift-scheduling method.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Computing Convex Hull Prices

Electricity markets worldwide allow participants to bid non-convex production offers. While non-convex offers can more accurately reflect a resource's capabilities, they create challenges for market clearing processes. For example, system operators may execute side payments when a participant’s cost is not covered through energy sale settlements from locational marginal pricing schemes, or when a participant incurs lost opportunity costs to follow the dispatch signal. Convex hull pricing minimizes these and other types of side payments while providing uniform (i.e., locationally and temporally consistent) prices. However, computing convex hull prices involves solving either a large-scale linear program - which in turn requires explicit descriptions of market participants’ convex hulls -or the Lagrangian dual of the corresponding non-convex scheduling problem. Here, we propose a computationally feasible and industrially scalable Benders decomposition approach to computing convex hull prices at least an order of magnitude faster than the current state-of-the-art while leveraging recent advances in convex hull formulations for thermal generating units.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Design and Characterization of the Engineering Model of the Spectrometer Onboard LuSEE‐Night

Abstract The Lunar Surface Electromagnetics Explorer—Night, LuSEE‐Night, is a low‐frequency radio astronomy experiment that will explore the cosmic Dark Ages signal on the radio‐quiet farside of the Moon. The LuSEE‐Night carries a radio frequency spectrometer consisting of a set of antennas, analog and digital processing electronics, and will be launched by NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services in 2025. The spectrometer is designed to observe the spectrum of the radio sky in the 0.5−50 MHz band. The engineering model (EM) of the four‐channel spectrometer has been developed. The EM has been characterized for linearity, gain, noise, and their temperature dependence, confirming that the EM meets all the requirements for LuSEE‐Night. Three mitigation techniques have been implemented and verified to suppress self‐induced electromagnetic interference. The flight model of the spectrometer is currently being developed and is scheduled to be shipped to the integration site in early 2024.

Tamura, Emi↗

Robust constrained tension control for high-precision roll-to-roll processes

Tension control is critical for maintaining good product quality in most roll-to-roll (R2R) production systems. Previous work has primarily focused on improving the disturbance rejection performance of tension controllers. Here, a robust linear parameter-varying model predictive control (LPV-MPC) scheme is designed to enhance the tension tracking performance of a pilot R2R system for deposition of materials used in flexible thin film applications. The performance of a tension controller may degrade due to disturbances associated with model uncertainties and the slowly-changing dynamics in R2R systems. We introduce a method that separately treats these two sources of disturbance. The controller utilizes an incremental model to eliminate the errors caused by the mismatch between the nominal model and the actual system. A tube-based MPC formulation combined with scheduled parameters adequately updates models and corrects for the time-varying dynamics. Constraints on the rated motor torque are incorporated in the MPC to maintain the controller reliability and avoid machine failures. We illustrate the operation of our control algorithm through simulation of an actual R2R system. The controller outperforms the benchmarks in terms of fast transient response and offset-free tension tracking. Furthermore, it also demonstrates immunity from variations due to parametric uncertainties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Best Practices for Regulatory Engagement and Relationship Building – 26129

In the initiation of a new project or facility, the management team should begin to engage with appropriate regulators, early and often. However, if this did not occur and new issues arise, new challenges develop, or regulatory impacts become a concern, the regulatory engagement process should be reconsidered and reevaluated. Regulators are key in the siting, construction, and continued operations of a new facility. Municipalities often seek to attract new initiatives, projects, or facilities that will have a significant positive impact on the community. Even though this is typically the goal, there are many hurdles along the path that may cause negative impacts leading to regulatory concerns and hurdles that may delay or stop work. Additionally, early and frequent engagement with regulators can have a significant positive impact on the successful siting, permitting, and construction of a facility, including meeting needed schedules that are important to economic viability. Further, it is essential for ongoing operations for regulators to be effectively and meaningfully engaged throughout the life of the project or facility due to the potential of changing factors during the construction and/or operation. Regular and consistent engagement builds relationships and helps ensure that potential topics of concern are addressed early before they become problems. In this paper, we will discuss best practices in engaging with regulators, how to initiate effective regulatory interactions, and building lasting relationships.

Jacobs, Stephanie [Savannah River National Laborat↗

Proposal to support the 8th International Conference on Nitrification and Related Processes (ICoN8)

The Eighth International Conference on Nitrification (ICoN8) was held on the campus of Princeton University from Sunday 30 July through Thursday 3 August, 2023. On Saturday prior to the first day of the official meeting, approximately 70 early career scientists participated in a workshop that included five presentations by grad students/post docs, and round table discussions on career and professional issues, led by members of the ICoN8 Steering committee and invited senior scientists from industry and academia. A total of 148 people registered for the meeting and a dozen or so local participants also attended, representing 15 countries. Fifty-two oral presentations and 72 poster presentations divided approximately equally among six research topics were made, all in plenary mode. The breadth of topics presented at the meeting is documented in the abstract booklet, speaker and poster schedules, which are attached.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ac susceptibility studies of intra- and intergrain properties of high-$J_c$ Bi-2212 wires

Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O x (Bi-2212) is the only high-$T_c$ superconductor (HTS) available as a multifilamentary round wire with multiple architectures and it is a very promising conductor for the realization of high-field applications. Despite their relatively simple wire fabrication by the powder-in-tube technique, Bi-2212 wires require a tightly controlled overpressure heat treatment (HT) with a multi-parameter time-temperature schedule to achieve high critical current density, $J_c$. Further, the variation of these HT parameters, changes in the wire design, wire diameter and powder quality can lead to variations in both the microstructure and the superconducting performance. Particularly noticeable are variations in $J_c$ performance and degree of filament bridging. In this work, we focus on the use of different magnetic characterization techniques to estimate the bridging level and assess the balance of INTER-grain and intra-grain superconducting properties including the irreversibility field ($H_{\text{irr}}$) and the pinning energy ($U_0$) in differently processed wires. Regardless of the actual bridging level, we find that the supercurrent flows at the filament bundle level, not just at the individual filament level. Moreover, using AC susceptibility we identify two distinct supercurrent contributions, one related to the intra-grain and one to the INTER-grain properties, whose irreversibility fields are different but without large sample-to-sample variation. Moreover, an additional component of intra-grain pinning mechanism becomes effective at low temperatures with positive effects also on the INTER-grain performance. The work clearly shows that detailed magnetic characterizations can become valuable tools to investigate the performance of differently processed Bi-2212 wires, correlating their microstructure and overall transport $J_c$, to obtain a deeper understanding of the causes of performance variation and paths to achieve further improvement.

2212↗

Computational Performance Bounds Prediction in Quantum Computing With Unstable Noise

Quantum computing has significantly advanced in recent years, boasting devices with hundreds of quantum bits (qubits), hinting at its potential quantum advantage over classical computing. Yet, noise in quantum devices poses significant barriers to realizing this supremacy. Understanding noise’s impact is crucial for reproducibility and application reuse; moreover, the next-generation quantum-centric supercomputing essentially requires efficient and accurate noise characterization to support system management (e.g., job scheduling), where ensuring correct functional performance (i.e., fidelity) of jobs on available quantum devices can even be higher-priority than traditional objectives. However, noise fluctuates over time, even on the same quantum device, which makes predicting the computational bounds for on-the-fly noise is vital. Noisy quantum simulation can offer insights but faces efficiency and scalability issues. Here, in this work, we propose a data-driven workflow, namely QuBound, to predict computational performance bounds. It decomposes historical performance traces to isolate noise sources and devises a novel encoder to embed circuit and noise information processed by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. For evaluation, we compare QuBound with a state-of-the-art learning-based predictor, which only generates a single performance value instead of a bound. Experimental results show that the result of the existing approach falls outside of performance bounds, while all predictions from our QuBound with the assistance of performance decomposition better fit the bounds. Moreover, QuBound can efficiently produce practical bounds for various circuits with over 106 speedup over simulation; in addition, the range from QuBound is over 10× narrower than the state-of-the-art analytical approach.

Li, Jinyang [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (Unit↗

Design and Characterization of the Engineering Model of the Spectrometer Onboard LuSEE-Night

The Lunar Surface Electromagnetics Explorer - Night, LuSEE-Night, is a low-frequency radio astronomy experiment that will explore the cosmic Dark Ages signal on the radio quiet farside of the Moon. The LuSEE-Night carries a radio frequency spectrometer consisting of a set of antennas, analog and digital processing electronics, and will be launched by NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services in 2025. The spectrometer is designed to observe the spectrum of the radio sky in the 0.5−50MHz band. The engineering model (EM) of the four-channel spectrometer has been developed. The EM has been characterized for linearity, gain, noise, and their temperature dependence, confirming that the EM meets all the requirements for LuSEE-Night. Three mitigation techniques have been implemented and verified to suppress self-induced electromagnetic interference (EMI). The flight model of the spectrometer is currently being developed and is scheduled to be shipped to the integration site in early 2024

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Data Fusion to Enhance Quality Control and Analysis with Instruments at the Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory

Deploying environmental monitoring instruments in the marine environment can be challenging, facing challenges around device survivability, biofouling and corrosion, and consistent data collection. This project explores the use of data fusion – the process of integrating multiple data sources to produce more consistent, accurate, and useful information – to build a consistent long-term monitoring system at the Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) in Sequim, Washington. Unused instruments that had been acquired from past projects were inventoried and deployments planned on the MCRL pier and floating dock. A total of 8 instruments were deployed including a tide gauge, hydrophone, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors, meteorological station, and three water quality sensors. Deployments were planned to be well-protected around the pier structure and a maintenance schedule was created for cleaning and recalibration. An automated data pipeline was created to aggregate data on edge computers that push data to Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud storage every 15 minutes, performing automated quality control and data transformations using the Time Series Data Analytical Toolkit (TSDAT). Continued efforts are underway to maintain this system into the future, take a data-driven approach to maintenance scheduling, improve the reliability of the system, and share the data with a variety of end-users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated Materials Deployment in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

The purpose of this report is to begin the development of a maximally efficient process for licensing and deploying new materials in Advanced Non-Light-Water Reactors (ANLWRs). Some new materials that are to be used in some new plants are seen as possibly introducing risks, because our understanding of those new materials’ behavior in the conditions generated by some novel plant designs is less complete than our understanding of the behavior of materials with long use histories in existing designs. In these cases, an approved code/standard or a code case to support the use of these materials in the novel design’s safety case may not exist for the regulator to utilize as part of the licensing determination. This circumstance creates the potential for an extremely long licensing process for new designs using new materials. The present strategy is to show how to manage these risks proactively, in such a way as to permit licensing decisions to be made in a timely manner, based on this risk management process. The present report outlines the gaps in the current codes to support deployment and use of novel materials and begins the development of the necessary risk management framework that is focused on the subject materials issues; it is based on risk-informed in-service surveillance practices, carried out in such a way as to compensate for current limitations in our state of knowledge. This development will enable licensing and deployment of the subject materials, conditional on the proactive surveillance process to be established. While this report is occasioned by limitations in our knowledge of certain materials issues that may arise in advanced designs, in-service surveillance is always done in order to compensate for a lack of knowledge: if we knew that components were not already failed and not trending toward failure, we would not perform surveillance, even in current-generation plants (except that prescriptive requirements would force us to do so). What is different about the surveillance program discussed here is that the issues are newer and the relevant experience base is less complete, so the surveillance presently contemplated may need to measure new things and/or measure them more often than has been traditional for surveillance coupons. The present report is devoted to the risk management framework and applies American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Division [1] to establish the structure of a protocol for carrying out the necessary surveillance. These documents are generic: they do not tell us how often to surveille, or what to surveille, or what to measure, but rather how to determine those things, given certain technical inputs. The Regulatory Development R&D Program [2] is currently developing the companion supporting technical basis for the materials surveillance technology that, when completed and validated, can be used by owner/operator and NRC to implement a materials degradation management program for ANLWRs. This report also outlines salient points of discussion, positive potential outcomes, and potential concerns from industry and the USNRC. These aspects of the report intend to inform future work to develop a proposed technical process for adoption by the industry and endorsement by the USNRC to allow developers to propose a risk informed and conservative approach for the use of materials where operating experience/data and codes and standards may not exist for use of a novel material in an operating reactor environment. Additionally, such a technology could be leveraged to potentially reduce part of the upfront materials data requirements from ongoing long-term materials testing so that early action on license application could be undertaken by NRC, in parallel with the continuation of long-term data collection. This could accelerate the schedule for a first-of-a-kind ANLWR deployment or a nth-of-a-kind new materials insertion for established ANLWR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Hybrid Stochastic-Interval Operation Strategy for Multi-Energy Microgrids

Increasing deployment of distributed energy resources intensifies interactions among electric, gas, heating, and cooling systems. Inherent uncertainties ranging from internal parameters to external inputs also impose significant challenges on system operation. A coordinated scheduling method is, therefore, desired for facilitating efficient operation of multi-energy microgrids under multiple uncertainties. In this paper, a deterministic coordinated scheduling model is developed first with detailed modeling of system dynamics and device parameters to fully characterize complex interactions among multi-energy carriers. Then, a hybrid stochastic-interval method is proposed to account for heterogeneous uncertainties in decisions of operational strategies. Specifically, performance and efficiency uncertainties of distributed energy resources, and injection uncertainty of renewable sources and multienergy demands are characterized by interval-based uncertain operation regions and probability distributions, respectively. A scenario-based two-stage algorithm is developed to solve the problem so that multiple uncertainties are preserved in the entire decision-making process. Moreover, adjustable operational strategies are determined to hedge uncertainty by considering operators’ risk preferences. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comprehensive case studies on a test system.

hybrid stochastic-interval approach↗

Near-Real-Time Forecast of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Using Long Short-Term Memory with an Adaptive Data Integration Kernel

Nowcasts, or near-real-time (NRT) forecasts, of soil moisture based on the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission could provide substantial value for a range of applications including hazards monitoring and agricultural planning. To provide such a NRT forecast with high fidelity, we enhanced a time series deep learning architecture, long short-term memory (LSTM), with a novel data integration (DI) kernel to assimilate the most recent SMAP observations as soon as they become available. The kernel is adaptive in that it can accommodate irregular observational schedules. Testing over the CONUS, this NRT forecast product showcases predictions with unprecedented accuracy when evaluated against subsequent SMAP retrievals. It showed smaller error than NRT forecasts reported in the literature, especially at longer forecast latency. The comparative advantage was due to LSTM’s structural improvements, as well as its ability to utilize more input variables and more training data. The DI-LSTM was compared to the original LSTM model that runs without data integration, referred to as the projection model here. We found that the DI procedure removed the autocorrelated effects of forcing errors and errors due to processes not represented in the inputs, for example, irrigation and floodplain/lake inundation, as well as mismatches due to unseen forcing conditions. The effects of this purely data-driven DI kernel are discussed for the first time in the geosciences. Furthermore, this work presents an upper-bound estimate for the random component of the SMAP retrieval error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗