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At least 379 records · Page 21

The use of multiple models in case-based diagnosis

The work described in this paper has as its goal the integration of a number of reasoning techniques into a unified intelligent information system that will aid flight crews with malfunction diagnosis and prognostication. One of these approaches involves using the extensive archive of information contained in aircraft accident reports along with various models of the aircraft as the basis for case-based reasoning about malfunctions. Case-based reasoning draws conclusions on the basis of similarities between the present situation and prior experience. We maintain that the ability of a CBR program to reason about physical systems is significantly enhanced by the addition to the CBR program of various models. This paper describes the diagnostic concepts implemented in a prototypical case based reasoner that operates in the domain of in-flight fault diagnosis, the various models used in conjunction with the reasoner's CBR component, and results from a preliminary evaluation.

Karamouzis, Stamos T.↗

An examination of the effects of explicit cloud water in the UCLA GCM

The effect of explicit cloud water on the climate simulation by the University of California of Los Angeles GCM is investigated by adding the mixing ratios of cloud ice and cloud liquid water to the prognostic variables of the model. The detrained cloud ice and cloud liquid water are obtained by the microphysical calculation in the Arakawa-Schubert (1974) cumulus scheme. The results are compared with the observations concerned with cloudiness, planetary albedo, OLR, and the dependence of cloud water content on temperature.

Ose, Tomoaki↗

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Martinson, Douglas G.↗

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of near-surface flows over the Martian north polar cap

Measurements made by Viking Lander VL-2 (48 N) have shown that the near-surface wind and temperature regime on Mars displays striking similarities to terrestrial counterparts. The diurnal radiative cycle is responsible for establishment of a well-defined thermal circulation in which downslope (Katabatic) flows prevail during the nighttime hours and weak upslope (anabatic) conditions prevail during the daytime. Previous work has indicated that the slope flows are much like those found on Earth, particularly the Katabatic winds, which show striking similarities to drainage flows observed over Antarctica. The low-level wind regime appears to be an important factor in the scouring of the martian landscape. The north polar cap shows evidence of eolian features such as dunes, frost streaks, and grooves from Viking imagery. The direction of the prevailing wind can in cases be inferred from the eolian features. We examine the thermally induced flows that result from the radiative heating and cooling of the martian north polar region using a comprehensive three-dimensional atmospheric mesoscale numerical model. The same model has been used previously for simulation of Antarctic Katabatic winds. The model equations are written in terrain-following coordinates to allow for irregular terrain; prognostic equations include the flux forms of the horizontal momentum equations, temperature, continuity. A surface energy budget equation is also incorporated in which the surface temperature is determined. Explicit parameterization of both terrestrial (longwave) and solar (shortwave) radiation is included. Turbulent transfer of heat and momentum in the martian atmosphere is assumed to follow the similarity expressions in the surface boundary layer on Earth. The terrain heights for the martian north polar region have been obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey map and digitized onto a 57x57 grid with a spacing of 75 km. The resulting terrain map is shown in Fig. 1. The vertical grid consists of 15 levels (delta equals 0.998, 0.99, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, 0.94, 0.92, 0.90, 0.85, 0.775, 0.70, 0.60, 0.50, 0.30, 0.10). The high resolution in the lower atmosphere is necessary to capture details of the boundary layer flows. The lowest level corresponds to a height of approximately 20 m above the ground, the seconds level 100 m.

Parish, Thomas R.↗

An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly - A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975

The paper employs a fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model to study the interannual variability of sea ice during the period 1955-1975 and to explain the large variability of the ice extent in the Greenland and Iceland seas during the late 1960s. The model is used to test the contention of Aagaard and Carmack (1989) that the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) was a consequence of the anomalously large ice export in 1968. The high-latitude ice-ocean circulation changes due to wind field changes are explored. The ice export event of 1968 was the largest in the simulation, being about twice as large as the average and corresponding to 1600 cu km of excess fresh water. The simulations suggest that, besides the above average ice export to the Greenland Sea, there was also fresh water export to support the larger than average ice cover. The model results show the origin of the GSA to be in the Arctic, and support the view that the Arctic may play an active role in climate change.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Statistic analysis of annual total ozone extremes for the period 1964-1988

Annual extremes of total column amount of ozone (in the period 1964-1988) from a network of 29 Dobson stations have been examined using the extreme value analysis. The extremes have been calculated as the highest deviation of daily mean total ozone from its long-term monthly mean, normalized by the monthly standard deviations. The extremes have been selected from the direct-Sun total ozone observations only. The extremes resulting from abrupt changes in ozone (day to day changes greater than 20 percent) have not been considered. The ordered extremes (maxima in ascending way, minima in descending way) have been fitted to one of three forms of the Fisher-Tippet extreme value distribution by the nonlinear least square method (Levenberg-Marguard method). We have found that the ordered extremes from a majority of Dobson stations lie close to Fisher-Tippet type III. The extreme value analysis of the composite annual extremes (combined from averages of the annual extremes selected at individual stations) has shown that the composite maxima are fitted by the Fisher-Tippet type III and the composite minima by the Fisher-Tippet type I. The difference between the Fisher-Tippet types of the composite extremes seems to be related to the ozone downward trend. Extreme value prognoses for the period 1964-2014 (derived from the data taken at: all analyzed stations, the North American, and the European stations) have revealed that the prognostic extremes are close to the largest annual extremes in the period 1964-1988 and there are only small regional differences in the prognoses.

Krzyscin, Janusz W.↗

A Review of Transmission Diagnostics Research at NASA Lewis Research Center

This paper presents a summary of the transmission diagnostics research work conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center over the last four years. In 1990, the Transmission Health and Usage Monitoring Research Team at NASA Lewis conducted a survey to determine the critical needs of the diagnostics community. Survey results indicated that experimental verification of gear and bearing fault detection methods, improved fault detection in planetary systems, and damage magnitude assessment and prognostics research were all critical to a highly reliable health and usage monitoring system. In response to this, a variety of transmission fault detection methods were applied to experimentally obtained fatigue data. Failure modes of the fatigue data include a variety of gear pitting failures, tooth wear, tooth fracture, and bearing spalling failures. Overall results indicate that, of the gear fault detection techniques, no one method can successfully detect all possible failure modes. The more successful methods need to be integrated into a single more reliable detection technique. A recently developed method, NA4, in addition to being one of the more successful gear fault detection methods, was also found to exhibit damage magnitude estimation capabilities.

Zakajsek, James J.↗

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 6: A multiyear assimilation with the GEOS-1 system: Overview and results

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center has produced a multiyear global assimilated data set with version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS). One of the main goals of this project, in addition to benchmarking the GEOS-1 system, was to produce a research quality data set suitable for the study of short-term climate variability. The output, which is global and gridded, includes all prognostic fields and a large number of diagnostic quantities such as precipitation, latent heating, and surface fluxes. Output is provided four times daily with selected quantities available eight times per day. Information about the observations input to the GEOS-1 DAS is provided in terms of maps of spatial coverage, bar graphs of data counts, and tables of all time periods with significant data gaps. The purpose of this document is to serve as a users' guide to NASA's first multiyear assimilated data set and to provide an early look at the quality of the output. Documentation is provided on all the data archives, including sample read programs and methods of data access. Extensive comparisons are made with the corresponding operational European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, as well as various in situ and satellite observations. This document is also intended to alert users of the data about potential limitations of assimilated data, in general, and the GEOS-1 data, in particular. Results are presented for the period March 1985-February 1990.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Second-order closure PBL model with new third-order moments: Comparison with LES data

This paper contains two parts. In the first part, a new set of diagnostic equations is derived for the third-order moments for a buoyancy-driven flow, by exact inversion of the prognostic equations for the third-order moment equations in the stationary case. The third-order moments exhibit a universal structure: they all are a linear combination of the derivatives of all the second-order moments, bar-w(exp 2), bar-w theta, bar-theta(exp 2), and bar-q(exp 2). Each term of the sum contains a turbulent diffusivity D(sub t), which also exhibits a universal structure of the form D(sub t) = a nu(sub t) + b bar-w theta. Since the sign of the convective flux changes depending on stable or unstable stratification, D(sub t) varies according to the type of stratification. Here nu(sub t) approximately equal to wl (l is a mixing length and w is an rms velocity) represents the 'mechanical' part, while the 'buoyancy' part is represented by the convective flux bar-w theta. The quantities a and b are functions of the variable N(sub tau)(exp 2), where N(exp 2) = g alpha derivative of Theta with respect to z and tau is the turbulence time scale. The new expressions for the third-order moments generalize those of Zeman and Lumley, which were subsequently adopted by Sun and Ogura, Chen and Cotton, and Finger and Schmidt in their treatments of the convective boundary layer. In the second part, the new expressions for the third-order moments are used to solve the ensemble average equations describing a purely convective boundary laye r heated from below at a constant rate. The computed second- and third-order moments are then compared with the corresponding Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results, most of which are obtained by running a new LES code, and part of which are taken from published results. The ensemble average results compare favorably with the LES data.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

Marshall, Susan↗

Stably stratified shear turbulence: A new model for the energy dissipation length scale

A model is presented to compute the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation length scale l(sub epsilon) in a stably stratified shear flow. The expression for l(sub epsilon) is derived from solving the spectral balance equation for the turbulent kinetic energy. The buoyancy spectrum entering such equation is constructed using a Lagrangian timescale with modifications due to stratification. The final result for l(sub epsilon) is given in algebraic form as a function of the Froude number Fr and the flux Richardson number R(sub f), l(sub epsilon) = l(sub epsilon)(Fr, R(sub f). The model predicts that for R(sub f) less than R(sub fc), l(sub epsilon) decreases with stratification. An attractive feature of the present model is that it encompasses, as special cases, some seemingly different models for l(sub epsilon) that have been proposed in the past by Deardorff, Hunt et al., Weinstock, and Canuto and Minotti. An alternative form for the dissipation rate epsilon is also discussed that may be useful when one uses a prognostic equation for the heat flux. The present model is applicable to subgrid-scale models, which are needed in large eddy simulations (LES), as well as to ensemble average models. The model is applied to predict the variation of l(sub epsilon) with height z in the planetary boundary layer. The resulting l(sub epsilon) versus z profile reproduces very closely the nonmonotonic profile of l(sub epsilon) exhibited by many LES calculations, beginning with the one by Deardorff in 1974.

Cheng, Y.↗

Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model

The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.

Zapotocny, Tom H.↗

Simulated interannual variability of the Greenland Sea deep water formation and its connection to surface forcing

A fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model is used to study the interannual variability of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea Gyre based on the simulations for the Arctic ice-ocean system for the period 1955 and 1960 - 1985. The model uses monthly climatology for thermodynamic forcing components (such as air temperature and cloudiness), together with constant annual net precipitation and river runoff. The daily wind forcing is derived from analyzed sea level air pressures from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In summary, the model shows that the occurence of deep convection in the Greenland Sea Gyre is controlled by the extensive Fram Strait ice export and/or local wind conditions in the Greenland Sea. In the latter case the weakening of the local wind curl allows the Polar Front to move eastward. The movement of the Polar Front causes adverse ice conditions, often together with much larger than normal ice export from the Arctic, such as in 1968, which can block convection in the gyre. The density difference between upper and lower layers is investigated as an indication of water mass formation through convection, occurring as strong diffusion in the model. The model-simulated density difference between the average top 100 m and deep levels reveals that the period 1960 - 1985 had only a few distinct years with weak stratification, and, especially, the model predicts no deep convection since the nid-1970s. The common factor for the years of the weakest decrease of the model-predicted heat content of the upper 2000 m which can, to a high degree, be explained by local heat loss.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

Toward a Turbulence Constitutive Relation for Rotating Flows

In rapidly rotating turbulent flows the largest scales of the motion are in approximate geostrophic balance. Single-point turbulence closures, in general, cannot attain a geostrophic balance. This article addresses and resolves the possibility of constitutive relation procedures for single-point second order closures for a specific class of rotating or stratified flows. Physical situations in which the geostrophic balance is attained are described. Closely related issues of frame-indifference, horizontal nondivergence, Taylor-Proudman theorem and two-dimensionality are, in the context of both the instantaneous and averaged equations, discussed. It is shown, in the absence of vortex stretching along the axis of rotation, that turbulence is frame-indifferent. A derivation and discussion of a geostrophic constraint which the prognostic equations for second-order statistics must satisfy for turbulence approaching a frame-indifferent limit is given. These flow situations, which include rotating and nonrotating stratified flows, are slowly evolving flows in which the constitutive relation procedures are useful. A nonlinear non-constant coefficient representation for the rapid-pressure strain covariance appearing in the Reynolds stress and heat flux equations consistent with the geostrophic balance is described. The rapid-pressure strain model coefficients are not constants determined by numerical optimization but are functions of the state of the turbulence as parameterized by the Reynolds stresses and the turbulent heat fluxes. The functions are valid for all states of the turbulence attaining their limiting values only when a limit state is achieved. These issues are relevant to strongly vortical flows as well as flows such as the planetary boundary layers, in which there is a transition from a three-dimensional shear driven turbulence to a geostrophic or horizontal turbulence.

Ristorcelli, J. R.↗

Monoclonal Antibody Testing for Cancer Metastasis

Malignant cells are characterized by the ability to invade surrounding normal tissues. Tumor invasion is abetted by proteolytic enzymes that have been correlated with recurrent disease and metastasis. These enzymes are involved in a cascade of proteolytic interactions with other enzymes and inhibitors which allow cancer cells to dissolve surrounding extracellular matrix, thereby enabling the cells to rapidly invade adjacent tissues and migrate to metastatic sites distant from the primary tumor. Among these proteases are the plasminogen activators (PA), collagenase IV, faminase, and in some cases cathepsin D, which together mediate key steps in the invasion process of metastasis. Cells which have the selective advantage for invasion and metastasis are those capable of regulating their proteolytic activity and proliferation. Cells in the process of invasion would be probably down-regulated for proliferation, but subsequent to attachment and adhesion at a distant site, would then be in a proliferative mode, up-regulating DNA replication. Urokinase (uPA) can be present in the tissues in several molecular forms. The inactive proenzyme is a single chain protein (scuPA) that is cleaved at Lys. 158 to form the double chain, high molecular weight active form (HMW-uPA) of 54 kD. A low molecular weight form (LMW-uPA) can also be produced by cleavage of the HMW-U PA at Lys. 135 - Lys. 136 giving a 35 kD active enzyme. Recently, it has been shown that the HMW active form of urokinase, bound to the tumor cell membrane, is responsible for the local lysis of the extracellular matrix, hence the tissue invasion mechanism for metastasis (Andreasen et al, 19861. Receptor- (membrane) bound uPA is twice as efficient (catalytically) as free fluid-phase uPA. Tho unbound uPA and the LMW form is not responsible for most of the local dissolution of extracellular matrix in the immediate vicinity of the metastatic tumor cell. High levels of urokinase (greater than 3.49 ng/mg of total protein) extracted from breast tumor tissues have recently been shown, together with plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), to be a good prognostic indicator for high risk of recurrence and shorter patient survival times. In this project, we have attempted to develop immunocytochemical methodologies for the clinical assessment of the expression of urokinase plasminogen activator, which has been implicated to be important for initial steps in tumor invasion, and to relate it to cell proliferation and DNA replication at the single-cell level.

Source record↗

On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

Babin, A.↗

Observational and Modeling Studies of Clouds and the Hydrological Cycle

Our approach involved validating parameterizations directly against measurements from field programs, and using this validation to tune existing parameterizations and to guide the development of new ones. We have used a single-column model (SCM) to make the link between observations and parameterizations of clouds, including explicit cloud microphysics (e.g., prognostic cloud liquid water used to determine cloud radiative properties). Surface and satellite radiation measurements were used to provide an initial evaluation of the performance of the different parameterizations. The results of this evaluation will then used to develop improved cloud and cloud-radiation schemes, which were tested in GCM experiments.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products - Volume 13

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Min, Wei↗