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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cryogenic thermal modeling of microwave high density signaling

Superconducting quantum computers require microwave control lines running from room temperature to the mixing chamber of a dilution refrigerator. Adding more lines without preliminary thermal modeling to make predictions risks overwhelming the cooling power at each thermal stage. In this paper, we investigate the thermal load of SC-086/50-SCN-CN semi-rigid coaxial cable, which is commonly used for the control and readout lines of a superconducting quantum computer, as we increase the number of lines to a quantum processor. We investigate the makeup of the coaxial cables, verify the materials and dimensions, and experimentally measure the total thermal conductivity of a single cable as a function of the temperature from cryogenic to room temperature values. We also measure the cryogenic DC electrical resistance of the inner conductor as a function of temperature, allowing for the calculation of active thermal loads due to Ohmic heating. Fitting this data produces a numerical thermal conductivity function used to calculate the static heat loads due to thermal transfer within the wires resulting from a temperature gradient. The resistivity data is used to calculate active heat loads, and we use these fits in a cryogenic model of a superconducting quantum processor in a typical Bluefors XLD1000-SL dilution refrigerator, investigating how the thermal load increases with processor sizes ranging from 100 to 225 qubits. We conclude that the theoretical upper limit of the described architecture is approximately 200 qubits. However, including an engineering margin in the cooling power and the available space for microwave readout circuitry at the mixing chamber, the practical limit is approximately 140 qubits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems

Abstract. Wind energy is foundational for achieving 100 % renewable electricity production, and significant innovation is required as the grid expands and accommodates hybrid plant systems, energy-intensive products such as fuels, and a transitioning transportation sector. The sizable investments required for wind power plant development and integration make the financial and operational risks of change very high in all applications but especially offshore. Dependence on a high level of modeling and simulation accuracy to mitigate risk and ensure operational performance is essential. Therefore, the modeling chain from the large-scale inflow down to the material microstructure, and all the steps in between, needs to predict how the wind turbine system will respond and perform to allow innovative solutions to enter commercial application. Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operability of future turbine and plant systems are articulated, and recommendations for research action are laid out. This article focuses on the many unknowns that affect the ability to push the frontiers in the design of turbine and plant systems. Modern turbine rotors operate through the entire atmospheric boundary layer, outside the bounds of historic design assumptions, which requires reassessing design processes and approaches. Traditional aerodynamics and aeroelastic modeling approaches are pressing against the limits of applicability for the size and flexibility of future architectures and flow physics fundamentals. Offshore wind turbines have additional motion and hydrodynamic load drivers that are formidable modeling challenges. Uncertainty in turbine wakes complicates structural loading and energy production estimates, both around a single plant and for downstream plants, which requires innovation in plant operations and flow control to achieve full energy capture and load alleviation potential. Opportunities in co-design can bring controls upstream into design optimization if captured in design-level models of the physical phenomena. It is a research challenge to integrate improved materials into the manufacture of ever-larger components while maintaining quality and reducing cost. High-performance computing used in high-fidelity, physics-resolving simulations offer opportunities to improve design tools through artificial intelligence and machine learning, but even the high-fidelity tools are yet to be fully validated. Finally, key actions needed to continue the progress of wind energy technology toward even lower cost and greater functionality are recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the physics basis for the ARC fusion power plant

Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to build ARC as the first fusion power plant at a site in Chesterfield County, Virginia, USA by the early 2030s. We present an overview of analysis comprising the physics basis of the ARC V3A design, a high-magnetic-field tokamak with 𝐵 0 =11.4 T, 𝐼 𝑝 =12.0 MA, 𝑅 0 =4.62 m, 𝑎 =1.18 m. ARC V3A is designed to produce 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 ≈1.13 GW DT fusion power and deliver ⩾400 MW net electric power to the grid. This overview includes quantitative analysis of fundamental issues for design of and operational plasma scenarios for a tokamak power plant, and lays out the design targets and strategic choices for ARC, including empirical fusion performance projections, assessment of H-mode access, ion cyclotron resonance heating simulations, alpha particle physics and time-dependent full-pulse simulations. This is complemented by topical papers on fusion performance and transport, disruption physics, boundary physics and magnetohydrodynamic stability. Critically, these studies identify key model uncertainties and physics risks to be retired through SPARC operation. Due to the modular nature of ARC, early results from SPARC can be incorporated into the design of the first ARC as well as subsequent replacements of the ARC vacuum vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

MultiSector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems

The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, and amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions and concepts, identifies MSD science questions in the context of the current state of knowledge, and describes ongoing activities to expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions in data and computing, and grow and diversify the MSD workforce. Central to our vision is the ambition of advancing the next generation of complex adaptive human-Earth systems science to better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, and improve sustainability. This will require convergent research and the integration of ideas and methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding the tradeoffs, synergies, and complexities that exist in coupled human-Earth systems is particularly important in the context of energy transitions and increased future shocks.

Reed, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) has a significant effect on several Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and speed water flow, impacting regional hydrology and flood risk. While Earth System models have improved forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at higher resolutions, the ability to forecast LULC change has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing it as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. To demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, we perform experiments where a diffusion model is trained for decadal forecasting of imperviousness change across the entire United States. We find that our model yields MAE lower than a no-change baseline for resolutions ≥ 0.7 X 0.7km2 on average, demonstrating its ability to capture and project accurate spatiotemporal patterns. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate Earth's physical properties and enabling scenario simulations via driver variables.

Varshney, Debvrat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000188981736)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning to Identify Optimum Prospects for Offshore Geologic CO 2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Gulf of Mexico

The SECARB Offshore Partnership is a government-industry partnership focused on assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO 2 subsea storage in saline formations and mature oil reservoirs. The SECARB Offshore Partnership is evaluating potential storage opportunities in the Central and Eastern planning areas of the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of Mexico. The evaluation focuses on active and depleted oil and gas fields and potentially associated CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), as well as, deep saline storage resources. As part of Subtask 3.0 (Offshore Storage Resources Characterization) and Subtask 4.0 (Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Modeling), Oklahoma State University (OSU) is developing a machine learning system that employs the SAS Institute’s Viya platform with visual data mining and machine learning to identify and characterize optimum prospects for enhanced oil recovery and stacked storage in saline reservoirs. This report summarizes this effort to date and discusses the many variables that can be used to characterize these storage objectives, as well as, the design vision of the Viya machine learning system.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Computational Fluid Dynamics for Design and Scale-Up of CO 2 /Syngas Bioreactors [Poster]

What are we trying to do? Develop validated, high fidelity computational models for gas fermentation using CO 2 , CO and H 2 . How is it done today? Microbiological advances are made at the lab scale in well mixed reactors. Process scale-up remains an open question when considering novel microorganisms/reaction systems. Why is this important? Lab-to-production scale transition is required to achieve CO 2 conversion at Mton/Gton scale and computational models can de-risk/accelerate this transition.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sequential Design of Experiments for Pilot Testing of Novel Solvent System

The CCSI2 program is supporting a six-month test campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) for evaluation of a novel water-lean solvent. This presentation describes CCSI2’s efforts in process modeling of the solvent system for both coal and natural gas-based flue gas sources and initial uncertainty quantification (UQ) work to estimate parametric uncertainty in key sub-models of interest (e.g., thermodynamics, mass transfer, reaction kinetics). Moreover, perspective is provided on how UQ and sequential design of experiments (SDoE) tools are used to assess the impact of model uncertainty on projected process performance, use this information to optimize data collection during the campaign, and refine process models through data collection. This framework is expected to reduce the overall model uncertainty, and thus risk associated with scale-up as the process moves towards commercialization.

Morgan, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2026

Let's Not R-EPE-at Our Mistakes

Overview of experimental and computational modeling results about the risks associated with co-extruded EPE encapsulants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning with Physics Priors as Generalized Regularizers

In various scientific and engineering applications, there is typically an approximate model of the underlying complex system, even though it contains both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we present a principled method to incorporate these approximate models as physics priors in modeling, to prevent overfitting and enhancing the generalization capabilities of the trained models. Utilizing the structural risk minimization (SRM) inductive principle pioneered by Vapnik, this approach structures the physics priors into generalized regularizers. The experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves up to two orders of magnitude of improvement in testing accuracy.

Liu, Frank↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗