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DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a High-Pressure Fuel Injection System for Use with Propane-DME

Paper details the design approach and performance of a high-pressure common rail fuel injection system used with Propane-DME mixtures targeting high injection pressures on a light duty 2.2L inline-4 compression ignition engine. The study estimates the bulk modulus of elasticity based on the hardware geometry and operating pressures to assess the compressibility of Propane and DME across a range of pressures typical of the LD engine application. The compressibility factor ranges from 500 to 3000 bar, significantly lower than the theoretical values for the conditions tested. The high-pressure pump performance is optimized via the implementation of an inlet metering valve operated on a crank-angle open/close sequence to control pressure at the common rail. The application of a model-based controller and the use of high-speed sampling of rail pressure indicate that pressure at the rail can be attained with the pump metering valve, and without use of the pressure relieve valve present in the rail. Results show a significant reduction on pumping work parasitics and of fuel heating, on the order of 40°C, at typical working conditions with the proposed approach. Injector rates of injection with Propane-DME are very similar to those of Diesel. Paper compares bench data of rates of injection versus simulation predictions across operating pressures of 200 to 1000bar and from injection commands spanning 0.20 to 2.0ms. Furthermore, the accuracy of the model predictions are attributed in part by to the updated fuel compressibility modulus descriptions attained during the testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The LLNL nuclear data infrastructure for the GNDS data format

The next generation of nuclear data infrastructure tools at the Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) consists of pipeline of codes that read and process nuclear data from evaluated files saved in the new GNDS (Generalised Nuclear Data Structure) nuclear data format. The processing code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations) is at the front-end of this pipeline as it reads and process the evaluated data for use in downstream transport codes. FUDGE is Python based with C and C++ extensions for computationally intensive tasks. As is the case for the evaluated data, the processed output is also saved in the GNDS format and the GIDI+ API is provided as the interface between the processed data and the transport codes. GIDI+ is a C++ based suite of codes and it includes GIDI (General Interaction Data Interface), a library for reading and writing GNDS data, and MCGIDI which is the cross section lookup, and reaction and product distribution sampling interface between Monte Carlo transport codes and the GNDS data. GIDI provides methods for easy access to the multi-group processed GNDS data and this is demonstrated through its implementation in ARDRA, the LLNL deterministic transport code. The evaluation and sampling methods in MCGIDI are available as both CPU and GPU methods which facilitates the use of MCGIDI in both traditional CPU-based as well as the next generation mixed model computational architectures. This is demonstrated through the GIDI+ implementation in MERCURY, the LLNL Monte Carlo transport code. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Final Targeting Strategy for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 North Survey

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is a dual-hemisphere, near-infrared (NIR), spectroscopic survey with the goal of producing a chemodynamical mapping of the Milky Way. The targeting for APOGEE-2 is complex and has evolved with time. In this paper, we present the updates and additions to the initial targeting strategy for APOGEE-2N presented in Zasowski et al. (2017). These modifications come in two implementation modes: (i) “Ancillary Science Programs” competitively awarded to Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV PIs through proposal calls in 2015 and 2017 for the pursuit of new scientific avenues outside the main survey, and (ii) an effective 1.5 yr expansion of the survey, known as the Bright Time Extension (BTX), made possible through accrued efficiency gains over the first years of the APOGEE-2N project. For the 23 distinct ancillary programs, we provide descriptions of the scientific aims, target selection, and how to identify these targets within the APOGEE-2 sample. The BTX permitted changes to the main survey strategy, the inclusion of new programs in response to scientific discoveries or to exploit major new data sets not available at the outset of the survey design, and expansions of existing programs to enhance their scientific success and reach. After describing the motivations, implementation, and assessment of these programs, we also leave a summary of lessons learned from nearly a decade of APOGEE-1 and APOGEE-2 survey operations. Finally, a companion paper, F. Santana et al. (submitted; AAS29036), provides a complementary presentation of targeting modifications relevant to APOGEE-2 operations in the Southern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operational and Performance Monitoring of East Tennessee Technology Park Ponds—2023 Results

Performance and operational monitoring are regulatory requirements associated with a non–time-critical removal action for three surface water bodies at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee: the K-1007-P1 Pond, the K-901-A Pond, and the K-720 Slough. This progress report summarizes the monitoring activities and results from fiscal year (FY) 2023. The goal of ecological enhancement of the K-1007-P1 and K-901-A Ponds is to reduce risk from polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in fish to humans and wildlife. Lowering PCB concentrations in the water column and in the food that fish eat is expected to decrease PCB bioaccumulation in fish. Performance monitoring of the K-1007-P1 Pond focuses on annual PCB trends in water, clams, and fish. PCBs in fish also are sampled annually at the K-720 Slough. Operational monitoring ensures that ecological enhancement measures—including water quality, plant community, fish community, and wildlife actions—have been implemented as intended. Monitoring provides the information necessary to determine whether modifications are needed to attain the design end state (i.e., a heavily vegetated, clearwater pond dominated by sunfish with significantly diminished or at least downwardly trending PCB levels in fish). In FY 2023, fish removal efforts and vegetation planting primarily focused on the K-901-A Pond. These actions were implemented to help push the systems toward the desired end state. Descriptions of the various monitoring activities and preliminary 2023 results are provided in the following sections. An update on fish and plant management actions in FY 2023 is also included in this report. A summary of the more detailed information in this report will be presented as required in the upcoming Remediation Effectiveness Report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operational and Performance Monitoring of East Tennessee Technology Park Ponds—2025 Results

Performance and operational monitoring are regulatory requirements associated with a non–time-critical removal action for three surface water bodies at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (Figure 1): the K-1007-P1 Pond, the K-901-A Pond, and the K-720 Slough. This progress report summarizes the monitoring activities and results from FY 2025. The goal of ecological enhancement of the K-1007-P1 and K-901-A Ponds is to reduce risk from polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in fish to humans and wildlife. Lowering PCB concentrations in the water column and in the food that fish eat is expected to decrease PCB bioaccumulation in fish. Performance monitoring of the K-1007-P1 Pond focuses on annual PCB trends in water, clams, and fish. PCBs in fish also are sampled annually at the K-720 Slough. Operational monitoring ensures that ecological enhancement measures—including water quality, plant community, fish community, and wildlife actions—have been implemented as intended. Monitoring provides the information necessary to determine whether modifications are needed to attain the design end state (i.e., a heavily vegetated, clearwater pond dominated by sunfish with significantly diminished or at least downwardly trending PCB levels in fish). In FY 2025, fish removal efforts and vegetation planting primarily focused on the K-901-A Pond. These actions were implemented to help push the systems toward the desired end state. Descriptions of the various monitoring activities and preliminary 2025 results are provided in the following sections. An update on fish and plant management actions in FY 2025 is also included in this report. A summary of the more detailed information in this report will be presented as required in the upcoming Remediation Effectiveness Report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Systematic Exploration of Kilonova Candidates from Neutron Star Mergers during the Third Gravitational-wave Observing Run

We present a comprehensive analysis of 653 optical candidate counterparts reported during the third gravitational-wave (GW) observing run. Our sample concentrates on candidates from the 15 events (published in GWTC-2, GWTC-3, or not retracted on GraceDB) that had a >1% chance of including a neutron star in order to assess their viability as true kilonovae. In particular, we leverage tools available in real time, including pre-merger detections and cross-matching with catalogs (i.e., point-source, variable-star, quasar and host-galaxy redshift data sets), to eliminate 65% of candidates in our sample. We further employ spectroscopic classifications, late-time detections, and light-curve behavior analyses and conclude that 66 candidates remain viable kilonovae. These candidates lack sufficient information to determine their classifications, and the majority would require luminosities greater than that of AT 2017gfo. Pre-merger detections in public photometric survey data and comparison of cataloged host-galaxy redshifts with the GW event distances are critical to incorporate into vetting procedures, as these tools eliminated >20% and >30% of candidates, respectively. We expect that such tools that leverage archival information will significantly reduce the strain on spectroscopic and photometric follow-up resources in future observing runs. Finally, we discuss the critical role prompt updates from GW astronomers to the EM community play in reducing the number of candidates requiring vetting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Updates to the n+ 63,65 Cu RRR+URR Evaluations [Slides]

This work updates neutron reactions on 63,65 Cu. It also discusses the motivations of the research which is to correct deficiencies in benchmark performance since critical assembly configurations use Cu as a reflector. This presentation discusses the incorporation of URR parameters fit to 2017 63 Cu(n, γ) measurement by Weigand et al., as well as preliminary work on angular distributions and states that validation against copper-sensitive ICSBEP benchmarks is ongoing. The presentation concludes by stating that R -matrix analysis coupled to consistent average parameters used in the URR have been performed for 63,65 Cu isotopes, that future work will focus on the angular distributions, and that an analysis of additional data measured on natural Cu sample is in progress.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS High-Frequency Measurements of CO₂, H₂O, Wind, and Temperature at University of Illinois Chicago

As of April 9, 2026: this dataset is currently being versioned to include data up to March 31, 2026. Once the versioning process is complete, new data files will be available for access. The dataset metadata will also be updated to reflect the data availability of the new data being versioned. Raw atmospheric measurements collected at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. The data includes high-frequency measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, water vapor (H₂O) concentration, wind speed (U, V, W components), temperature, and atmospheric pressure. These raw data are recorded by the LI-7500DS Open Path CO₂/H₂O Analyzer and a sonic anemometer at a 10 Hz acquisition frequency, providing the necessary inputs for calculating fluxes of CO₂, H₂O, heat, and momentum. In addition to gas concentration measurements, the dataset includes diagnostic information from the instruments, including absorptance, sample and reference signals, and diagnostic values. The data were collected to study urban atmospheric conditions and contribute to flux calculations for urban climate research. These measurements form the basis for calculating 30-minute average fluxes of key atmospheric variables using the eddy covariance method. This dataset provides critical raw input data for researchers interested in atmospheric fluxes, urban air quality, and the interaction between the urban environment and atmospheric processes. The data is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, under the CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of $J/ψ$ production cross-sections in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5 TeV

The production cross-sections of J/ψ mesons in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 5 TeV are measured using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9.13 ± 0.18 pb -1 , collected by the LHCb experiment. The cross-sections are measured differentially as a function of transverse momentum, p T , and rapidity, y, and separately for J/ψ mesons produced promptly and from beauty hadron decays (nonprompt). With the assumption of unpolarised J/ψ mesons, the production cross-sections integrated over the kinematic range 0 < p T < 20 GeV/c and 2.0 < y < 4.5 are σ prompt J/Ψ = 8.154 ± 0.010 ± 0.283 μb, σnonprompt J/Ψ = 0.820 ± 0.003 ± 0.034 μb, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. These cross-sections are compared with those at $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV and 13 TeV, and are used to update the measurement of the nuclear modification factor in proton-lead collisions for J/ψ mesons at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5 TeV. The results are compared with theoretical predictions.

quarkonium↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of freeze-thaw history on soil carbon response to experimental freeze-thaw cycles

This dataset contains data used for the paper "The impact of freeze-thaw history on soil carbon response to experimental freeze-thaw cycles". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available.Freeze-thaw is a disturbance process in cold regions where permafrost soils are becoming vulnerable to temperature fluctuations above 0˚C. Freeze-thaw alters soil physical and biogeochemical properties with implications for carbon persistence and emissions in Arctic landscapes. We examined whether different freeze-thaw histories in two soil systems led to contrasting biogeochemical responses under a laboratory-controlled freeze-thaw incubation. We investigated controls on soil organic matter (SOM) composition through Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectroscopy (FT-ICR-MS) to identify nominal carbon oxidation states and relative abundances of aliphatic-type carbon molecules in both surface and subsurface soils. Soil cores (~ 60 cm-depth) were sampled from two sites in Alaskan permafrost landscapes with different in situ freeze-thaw characteristics: Healy (>40 freeze-thaw cycles annually) and Toolik (<150 freeze-thaw cycles annually). FT-ICR-MS was coupled with in situ temperature data and soil properties (i.e., soil texture, mineralogy) to assess (1) differences in SOM composition associated with previous freeze-thaw history and (2) sensitivity to experimental freeze-thaw in the extracted cores. Control (freeze-only) samples showed greater carbon oxidation in Healy soils compared with Toolik, even in lower mineral horizons where freeze-thaw history was comparable across both sites. Healy showed the most loss of carbon compounds following experimental freeze-thaw in the lower mineral depths, including a decrease in aliphatics. Toolik soils responded more slowly to freeze-thaw as shown by intermediary carbon oxidation distributed across multiple carbon compound classes. Variations in the response of permafrost carbon chemistry to freeze-thaw is an important factor for predicting changes in soil function as permafrost thaws in high northern latitudes.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/Erin-Rooney/FTC-FTICR (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.6533064).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Fermi-LAT Lightcurve Repository

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) lightcurve repository (LCR) is a publicly available, continually updated library of gamma-ray lightcurves of variable Fermi-LAT sources generated over multiple timescales. The Fermi-LAT LCR aims to provide publication-quality lightcurves binned on timescales of 3, 7, and 30 days for 1525 sources deemed variable in the source catalog of the first 10 yr of Fermi-LAT observations. The repository consists of lightcurves generated through full likelihood analyses that model the sources and the surrounding region, providing fluxes and photon indices for each time bin. The LCR is intended as a resource for the time-domain and multimessenger communities by allowing users to search LAT data quickly to identify correlated variability and flaring emission episodes from gamma-ray sources. We describe the sample selection and analysis employed by the LCR and provide an overview of the associated data access portal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

NOvA 2020 official data release (13.6E20 neutrino + 12.5E20 antineutrino)

NOvA results of the 2020 joint analysis of nue appearance and numu disappearance data presented in Phys. Rev. D 106, 032004:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.106.032004Note: these contained plots are slightly different from the ones shown at NEUTRINO 2020.Exposure: 13.6E20 protons on target, neutrino-enhanced beam12.5E20 protons on target, antineutrino-enhanced beamParameters not constrained by NOvA:- th13 is assumed to be Gaussian, ss2th13 = 0.085 +/- 0.003 (PDG 2019, Phys. Rev. D98, 030001 (2018) and 2019 update, https://pdg.lbl.gov/2019/listings/rpp2019-list-neutrino-mixing.pdf)- ss2th12 = 0.851, dm21=7.53e-5 are fixed at 2019 PDG valuesSignificances are obtained with the Feldman-Cousins procedure.Files contain TGraphs for the following:- ssth23 vs deltaCP 1,2,3 sigma and 90% CL contours, for NO or IO- dmsq32 vs ssth23 1,2,3 sigma and 90% CL contours, for NO or IO- deltaCP profile for NO UO, NO LO, IO LO, IO UO- ssth23 profile for NO, IO- dmsq32 profile for NO UO, NO LO, IO LO, IO UOContour files also include a TMarker with the best-fit parameters (in the NO)An additional file containing the predictions for all channels’ signal and background components computed at the NOvA best-fit oscillation parameters and systematic pull terms. Numu samples include the no-oscillation case as well.Please note that any fits performed with these histograms are not expected to exactly reproduce the official NOvA results as parameterizations of the numerous systematic uncertainties considered in the official fits are not included in this release.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

NW-BRaVE T3 Hydroplane Project Close: Project Close-out for T3 Hydroplane Analysis

Thrust 3 of the Northwest Biopreparedness Research in a Virtual Environment was an expansive project including method development, sample collection and sequence analysis. The sampling occurred over a multi-year period to generate metagenomic datasets that inform cyanophage-picocyanobacterial interactions in the Salish Sea across a moderate timeframe and geographical range. Part of the thrust’s aim was to validate how much experimental structural and multiomics work in a model organism (Prochlorococcus Marinus, str. MED4) from thrusts 1 and 2 would carry over into a broader range of related organisms in the natural world, to address a fundamental question in scientific preparation for epidemics: whether and how much experimental information from known and experimentally tractable species can translate to actionable biological information in unknown species. In other words, thrust 3 aimed to find out whether the model organism experiments matter in terms of how organisms interact. This report updates work described in Johnson and Pollock 2025 (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Exposure during Transportation of Waste to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) - 20445

Safety is a priority for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program. This commitment to safety is integrated into requirements and work procedures at DOE sites across the U.S. that generate low-level radioactive waste, mixed low-level radioactive waste, and classified waste that is transported to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) for permanent disposal. Generators of this waste are responsible for ensuring it is packaged and transported in a safe and compliant manner. These generators and their contracted commercial carriers must comply with U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations; the Nevada National Security Site Waste Acceptance Criteria (NNSSWAC); and other applicable federal, state, and local regulations and requirements. This includes packaging and shipping the waste to meet DOT regulatory radiation dose limits to ensure public safety during transportation. NNSS waste generators have a solid safety record for complying with these stringent regulations as demonstrated by the fact that no shipments exceeding DOT dose rate limits were received at the NNSS Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) during FY 2014 through FY 2018. A 2005 study conducted by the Desert Research Institute validated shipments to the NNSS comply with DOT radiation dose limits. In response to recent Nevada stakeholder requests for an updated study, an analysis was conducted to verify and provide evidence that the public continues to be safe from exposure to radioactive waste shipment to the NNSS. Radiation exposure from radioactive waste shipments in transit to the NNSS was evaluated. Three studies were performed: 1. Confirm compliance of waste shipments to the DOT radiation limits using dose rate surveys taken at the generator site and at the disposal site. 2. Estimate the dose to the public from waste shipments using the dosimetry results for disposal site personnel by comparing time of exposure for various individuals/scenarios. 3. Estimate the truck driver dose using the receipt dose rate surveys and time of exposure, and from dosimetry results. Study 1 confirmed compliance with the DOT dose rate limits for a sample of waste shipments (123 of 1,038) received during fiscal year (FY) 2017. Study 2 showed that the average annual radiation equivalent dose for disposal site personnel during FY 2017 was approximately 6.7% [0.415 mSv (41.5 millirem)] of the annual average dose that a person living in the U.S. receives from all sources [6.2 mSv (620 mrem)]. Maximum dose to a member of the public, a person resting/sleeping in an adjacent truck at a rest area to a waste shipment, was 0.0166 mSv (1.66 mrem), which is less than the dose received from a person taking a round trip from the east coast to the west coast of the continental U.S. on an airplane [0.07 mSv (7 mrem) per round trip]. Study 3 showed that the truck driver who made the most shipments of radioactive waste to the NNSS, who drove the most hours (estimated time of exposure 2,520 hours), during FY 2017 had a total dose of 0.15 mSv (15 mrem), which was obtained from their personal dosimeter. The annual dose recorded for disposal site personnel, the dose estimates for the public, and the truck driver dose were all a small percentage of the average radiation dose a person receives from all sources (e.g., background and medical radiation). At these levels, risk should only be described qualitatively. Radiation exposure from radioactive waste shipments to the NNSS were shown to be compliant with the DOT dose rate limits, safe, and very low (i.e., within background levels). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

The International Soil Moisture Network: serving Earth system science for over a decade

In 2009, the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) was initiated as a community effort, funded by the European Space Agency, to serve as a centralised data hosting facility for globally available in situ soil moisture measurements (Dorigo et al., 2011b, a). The ISMN brings together in situ soil moisture measurements collected and freely shared by a multitude of organisations, harmonises them in terms of units and sampling rates, applies advanced quality control, and stores them in a database. Users can freely retrieve the data from this database through an online web portal (https://ismn.earth/en/, last access: 28 October 2021). Meanwhile, the ISMN has evolved into the primary in situ soil moisture reference database worldwide, as evidenced by more than 3000 active users and over 1000 scientific publications referencing the data sets provided by the network. As of July 2021, the ISMN now contains the data of 71 networks and 2842 stations located all over the globe, with a time period spanning from 1952 to the present. The number of networks and stations covered by the ISMN is still growing, and approximately 70% of the data sets contained in the database continue to be updated on a regular or irregular basis. The main scope of this paper is to inform readers about the evolution of the ISMN over the past decade, including a description of network and data set updates and quality control procedures. A comprehensive review of the existing literature making use of ISMN data is also provided in order to identify current limitations in functionality and data usage and to shape priorities for the next decade of operations of this unique community-based data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

The 2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected information about household and individual travel patterns for residents throughout a four-county region in Washington State. Study results were used to update the region's travel and land-use models and to calibrate local traffic and travel models. The study also helped the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) and its regional partners develop plans that accommodate the diverse travel needs and preferences of residents. The Resource Systems Group administered the study on behalf of PSRC. Global positioning system (GPS)-equipped smartphones were used to provide data pertaining to the daily travel of 547 individual participants. Because the region's university students may have been underrepresented in the initial 2014 household travel study, the PSRC added a college-population travel survey in fall 2014. In spring 2015, a second household data collection effort was conducted to increase the frequency of data collection and to collect GPS data as well as a sample of longitudinal data from households that completed the 2014 survey.

1Hz data↗