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At least 379 records · Page 21
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DOE OSTI2026

Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework: autoregressive rollouts compound errors over long horizons, outputs couple many physical channels with disparate scales and predictability, and globally pooled test metrics can disagree sharply with per-channel, late-lead behavior implied by short-horizon training. We extend neural scaling analysis for autoregressive weather forecasting from single-step training loss to long rollouts and per-channel metrics. We quantify (1) how prediction error is distributed across channels and how its growth rate evolves with forecast horizon, (2) if power law scaling holds for test error, relative to rollout length when error is pooled globally, and (3) how that fit varies jointly with horizon and channel for parameter, data, and compute-based scaling axes. We find strong cross-channel and cross-horizon heterogeneity: pooled scaling can look favorable while many channels degrade at late leads. We discuss implications for weighted objectives, horizon-aware curricula, and resource allocation across outputs.

Kiefer Jr, Alexander [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025398874↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1972

Radiation scales on which standard values of the solar constant and solar spectral irradiance are based

The question of radiation scales is critically examined. There are two radiation scales which are of fundamental validity and there are several calibration standards and radiation scales which have been set up for practical convenience. The interrelation between these scales is investigated. It is shown that within the limits of accuracy of irradiance measurements in general and solar irradiance measurements in particular, the proposed standard values of the solar constant and solar spectrum should be considered to be on radiation scales of fundamental validity; those based on absolute electrical units and on the thermodynamic Kelvin temperature scale.

Thekaekara, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Evaluation of a 40 to 1 scale model of a low pressure engine

An evaluation of a scale model of a low pressure rocket engine which is used for secondary injection studies was conducted. Specific objectives of the evaluation were to: (1) assess the test conditions required for full scale simulations; (2) recommend fluids to be used for both primary and secondary flows; and (3) recommend possible modifications to be made to the scale model and its test facility to achieve the highest possible degree of simulation. A discussion of the theoretical and empirical scaling laws which must be observed to apply scale model test data to full scale systems is included. A technique by which the side forces due to secondary injection can be analytically estimated is presented.

Cooper, C. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The aurora as a source of planetary-scale waves in the middle atmosphere

Photographs of global scale auroral forms taken by scanning radiometers onboard weather satellites in 1972 show that auroral bands exhibit well organized wave motion with typical zonal wave number of 5 or so. The scale size of these waves is in agreement with that of well organized neutral wind fields in the 150- to 200-km region during the geomagnetic storm of May 27, 1967. Further, the horizontal scale size revealed by these observations are in agreement with that of high altitude traveling ionospheric disturbances. It is conjectured that the geomagnetic storm is a source of planetary and synoptic scale neutral atmospheric waves in the middle atmosphere. Although there is, at present, no observation of substorm related waves of this scale size at mesospheric and stratospheric altitudes, the possible existence of a new source of waves of the proper scale size to trigger instabilities in middle atmospheric circulation systems may be significant in the study of lower atmospheric response to geomagnetic activity.

Chiu, Y. T.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Large-scale V/STOL testing

Several facets of large-scale testing of V/STOL aircraft configurations are discussed with particular emphasis on test experience in the Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel. Examples of powered-lift test programs are presented in order to illustrate tradeoffs confronting the planner of V/STOL test programs. Large-scale V/STOL wind-tunnel testing can sometimes compete with small-scale testing in the effort required (overall test time) and program costs because of the possibility of conducting a number of different tests with a single large-scale model where several small-scale models would be required. The benefits of both high- or full-scale Reynolds numbers, more detailed configuration simulation, and number and type of onboard measurements are studied.

Koenig, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Radar backscattering from a sea having an anisotropic large-scale surface, part 2

A two scale scattering model was derived that combines specular reflections from sea waves and Bragg scattering in a manner consistent with energy conservation. The effect of the tilting of the small scale roughness by the large scale roughness was included, which accounted for the reduction of reflected power. The special case of backscattering for which the transmitted polarization equaled the received polarization was considered. An anisotropic large scale surface was used to specify the probability density function of the large scale surface normal. In order to isolate the azimuthal variation of the normalized radar cross section produced by the anisotropic probability density function, an isotropical small scale spectrum was assumed.

Wentz, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Effects of axisymmetric contractions on turbulence of various scales

Digitally acquired and processed results from an experimental investigation of grid generated turbulence of various scales through and downstream of nine matched cubic contour contractions ranging in area ratio from 2 to 36, and in length to inlet diameter ratio from 0.25 to 1.50 are reported. An additional contraction with a fifth order contour was also utilized for studying the shape effect. Thirteen homogeneous and nearly isotropic test flow conditions with a range of turbulence intensities, length scales and Reynolds numbers were generated and used to examine the sensitivity of the contractions to upstream turbulence. The extent to which the turbulence is altered by the contraction depends on the incoming turbulence scales, the total strain experienced by the fluid, as well as the contraction ratio and the strain rate. Varying the turbulence integral scale influences the transverse turbulence components more than the streamwise component. In general, the larger the turbulence scale, the lesser the reduction in the turbulence intensity of the transverse components. Best agreement with rapid distortion theory was obtained for large scale turbulence, where viscous decay over the contraction length was negligible, or when a first order correction for viscous decay was applied to the results.

Tan-Atichat, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

An investigation of scale model testing of VTOL aircraft in hover

Utilizing the unique opportunity created by full scale hover testing of the twin-jet Grumman Design 698 VTOL aircraft in the NASA-Ames Hover Facility, a series of experiments was conducted to evaluate the effectivness of scale model testing in predicting full scale behavior. Interference forces were found to be sensitive to aircraft lower surface geometry, but when the geometry was modeled accurately the small scale results matched full scale forces guite well. The interference forces were found to be insensitive to core nozzle temperature and fan nozzle pressure ratio. The results clearly demonstrate that small scale models can be reliably utilized for aircraft and technology development when the appropriate sensitivities are recognized.

Hill, W. G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Estimates of crater size for large-body impact Gravity-scaling results

A scaling analysis based upon dimensional invariance is used in conjunction with centrifuge experiments to estimate cratering efficiency as a function of impact velocity for kilometer-sized impactors. Complementing earlier, conventional small-scale impact experiments, centrifuge experiments were performed to substantiate these scaling laws in a scaled-size regime of interest. This technique provided empirical scaling laws used to estimate crater size for large bodies impacting the earth. From these scaling laws a 10-km-diameter body impacting at 25 km/s would be expected to produce a 66-km-diameter crater and to inject approximately 12 times its mass into the atmosphere.

Schmidt, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale inhomogeneities and galaxy statistics

The density fluctuations associated with the formation of large-scale cosmic pancake-like and filamentary structures are evaluated using the Zel'dovich approximation for the evolution of nonlinear inhomogeneities in the expanding universe. It is shown that the large-scale nonlinear density fluctuations in the galaxy distribution due to pancakes modify the standard scale-invariant correlation function xi(r) at scales comparable to the coherence length of adiabatic fluctuations. The typical contribution of pancakes and filaments to the J3 integral, and more generally to the moments of galaxy counts in a volume of approximately (15-40 per h Mpc)exp 3, provides a statistical test for the existence of large scale inhomogeneities. An application to several recent three dimensional data sets shows that despite large observational uncertainties over the relevant scales characteristic features may be present that can be attributed to pancakes in most, but not all, of the various galaxy samples.

Schaeffer, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Scaling of Coronal Models from One Star to Another

The requirements that must be met in order that stationary numerical corona models can be scaled from one star to another are discussed. A corona model is a solution of the conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy, subject to appropriate boundary conditions, and of the equation of state. In general, the mass M and radius R of the star enter these equations and boundary conditions as free parameters. A given solution can be scaled to other stars only if all equations can be rewritten in such a form that M and R do no longer appear explicitly as free parameters, but only implicitly as scaling factors of the variables. An adequate means to find these scaling factors is a homologous transformation: one multiplies all variables and parameters by separate constants (i.e., scaling factors) and requires that the equations and boundary conditions remain valid. This leads to a set of nonlinear relations between the transformation constants. Only if in this set the two constants associated with M and R can be chosen independently, can a given numerical corona model be scaled to arbitrary stars.

Hammer, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Eolian Erosion on Mars: Three Scales

Formation and erosion of deposits on Mars with vertical scales of 100 to 1,000 meters and horizontal scales of 100 km may have occurred at rates very different from present ones. Evidence for the rates on small scales comes from observations of dust storms and photometry of wind streaks. These observations cover scales less than 1 cm vertically and time scales less than 10 years. Intermediate scale features such as yardangs and sand dunes are more difficult to evaluate, but for dunes, plausible rates of transport may be calculated. Net eolian action in some areas may be so low that in order to study the large features one needs to select those likely to have been modified more rapidly and that exhibit distinctive contrasts with surrounding areas. Best suited for such study are relatively soft deposits overlying more resistant substrates. Viking Orbiter images of four of the largest such areas were examined to test how the erosional features correlate with patterns attributable to winds, properties of deposits, or non-eolian erosion, and for constraints on erosion and transport rates.

Thomas, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Evidence from satellite altimetry for small-scale convection in the mantle

Small scale convection can be defined as that part of the mantle circulation in which upwellings and downwellings can occur beneath the lithosphere within the interiors of plates, in contrast to the large scale flow associated with plate motions where upwellings and downwellings occur at ridges and trenches. The two scales of convection will interact so that the form of the small scale convection will depend on how it arises within the large scale flow. Observations based on GEOS-3 and SEASAT altimetry suggest that small scale convection occurs in at least two different ways.

Parsons, B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A re-evaluation of the Haser model scale lengths for comets

The scale lengths are examined for the Haser (1957) model using new, photoelectric, high signal-to-noise ratio data on a variety of comets. The comets have helicocentric distances from 0.75 to 1.81 AU. It is shown that the scale lengths for C2 and C3 compiled by A'Hearn and Newburn and Spinrad (1984) do not adequately represent the data for most of the comets considered. New scale lengths are derived for these two molecules. CN scale lengths are discussed. It is shown that an R-sub-h squared variation for the scale lengths works for most molecules but that the C2 parent scale length must vary by R-sub-h to the 2.5 power.

Cochran, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Centrifuge impact cratering experiments: Scaling laws for non-porous targets

A geotechnical centrifuge was used to investigate large body impacts onto planetary surfaces. At elevated gravity, it is possible to match various dimensionless similarity parameters which were shown to govern large scale impacts. Observations of crater growth and target flow fields have provided detailed and critical tests of a complete and unified scaling theory for impact cratering. Scaling estimates were determined for nonporous targets. Scaling estimates for large scale cratering in rock proposed previously by others have assumed that the crater radius is proportional to powers of the impactor energy and gravity, with no additional dependence on impact velocity. The size scaling laws determined from ongoing centrifuge experiments differ from earlier ones in three respects. First, a distinct dependence of impact velocity is recognized, even for constant impactor energy. Second, the present energy exponent for low porosity targets, like competent rock, is lower than earlier estimates. Third, the gravity exponent is recognized here as being related to both the energy and the velocity exponents.

Schmidt, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistics of density maxima and the large-scale matter distribution

High peaks in Gaussian noise display enhanced clustering. The enhancement takes two forms: on large scales one obtains a linear amplification of the correlation function which is independent of scale. On smaller scales, but larger than the mass scale of the peaks themselves, a nonlinear (exponential) enhancement of the number density of high peaks in overdense regions arises. The large-scale correlations of Abell's rich clusters can be understood as a manifestation of this phenomenon. If the formation of bright galaxies favors the high overdensity peaks then the number of galaxies (per unit mass) in clusters and groups may be considerably enhanced. Consequences of these ideas for the density parameter and the large-scale matter distribution are discussed.

Kaiser, N.↗