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Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Quantifying the influence of different biocrust community states and their responses to warming temperatures on soil biogeochemistry in field and mesocosm studies

Biocrusts influence soil biogeochemistry by fixing carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and through leachate inputs to soils. Functional rates can vary among biocrust community states and in response to edaphic properties, heterotrophic microbial activity, and global change. Using soils and biocrusts from the Colorado Plateau, Utah, USA, we aimed to quantify the influence of early-successional (ES) and late-successional (LS) biocrust community states on soil biogeochemistry. In a field setting, we found soil was less “fertile” under ES than LS biocrust, but ES biocrust had a relative influence 1.3 times greater than LS biocrust on soil fertility. Leachate collected from LS biocrust had, on average, 6 times more organic C and 1.7 times more dissolved N than ES biocrust, but concentrations of phosphorus (P) and inorganic N did not differ among the two biocrust types. Here, to disentangle influences of biocrusts and soil properties on biogeochemical pools, we constructed mesocosms from homogenized soil and left the surface bare or covered with ES or LS biocrust, before assignment to ambient or warmed (+5 °C) temperature treatments for 3 months. Multivariate biogeochemical properties differed among cover types, yet all exhibited losses of P, N, and organic C and nearly half of the biogeochemical variables considered did not differ among cover types. Mesocosms with LS biocrust retained more dissolved N, supported 8 additional, significant correlations among biogeochemical pools of the biocrust and mineral soil layer on average, and lost fewer of these correlations under warming. Overall, while soils under LS biocrusts were more fertile (i.e., had higher nutrient concentrations) than under ES, we did not find evidence implicating leachate as the primary driver of this difference. Biocrust influences on soil fertility were greater when mineral soil nutrients were in lower concentrations, highlighting the value of even incipient biocrusts for dryland functioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of mechanical properties and deformation behavior of highly irradiated 316L stainless steel from target modules at the Spallation Neutron Source using digital image correlation analysis

Tensile specimens with irradiation doses ranging from approximately 0.7 to 7.6 displacements per atom (dpa) were fabricated from 316L samples removed from Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) target vessels after service. Tensile tests were performed in conjunction with digital image correlation (DIC) characterization, which permitted detailed analysis of the strain distribution and deformation behavior of the specimen gauge sections during testing. The results show, while considerable hardening (500–700 MPa increase in yield strength) occurred in the 316L SNS target material with increasing dose, appreciable ductility (19–23% total elongation) remained in the material after irradiation to 7.6 dpa in the mixed neutron/proton environment of the SNS target region. The DIC data showed the strain distribution and deformation behavior of all irradiated specimens were nonuniform during testing. Strain localization in the form of deformation bands or “hotspots” was observed during testing, and in some specimens, the bands propagated as deformation waves along the gauge section. The “traveling wave” deformation behavior affected the amount of elongation each specimen achieved, and the scatter in the elongation data was attributed to the large variation in deformation behavior observed among different specimens. Bands of localized strain, or deformation bands, oriented at specific angles were observed in two-dimensional plots of the strain distribution in the gauge sections of some specimens. Overall, this paper describes the experimental procedures, results, and deformation behavior of tensile specimens from SNS targets after service and illustrates the value of DIC characterization during tensile testing of irradiated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Employing methylotrophs for a green economy: one-carbon to fuel them all and through metabolism redesign them

Microbial platforms are currently being optimized to revolutionize industrial energy production while mitigating shortages of global resources and food supplies. Here, in this work, we address recent advances to develop bacterial methylotrophic platforms as promising platforms enabling the reuse of products and materials (at their highest value) while reducing waste and pollution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of fatigue precracking and specimen size on Master Curve fracture toughness measurements of EUROFER97 and F82H steels

EUROFER97 and F82H steels are two leading reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steels for fusion first wall and blanket applications. Exposure to the harsh environment of fusion reactors can result in severe degradation of fracture toughness. Thus, the post-irradiation evaluation of fracture toughness is critical for understanding the material behavior. Due to the space constraints of irradiation facilities and challenges in controlling a uniform irradiation condition for large size specimens, the development of small specimen test techniques (SSTT) is indispensable to evaluate the performance of irradiated materials. In this study, we evaluated specimen size effects on the Master Curve fracture toughness of EUROFER97 and F82H steels. A wide variety of specimens, including 0.5 T compact tension (C(T)) specimens, 0.16 T mini-compact tension (miniC(T)) specimens, and 1.65 mm miniature bend bar specimens, were tested. The testing methodology was based on the Master Curve method in the ASTM E1921 standard. No specimen size effect was observed in 0.5 T C(T) and 0.16 T miniC(T) specimens on the Master Curve reference temperature T0, while 1.65 mm miniature bend bar specimens yielded a higher T 0Q . A strong effect of fatigue precracking on T 0 for 0.5 T C(T) and 0.16 T miniC(T) specimens was observed, such that testing on specimens with skewed fatigue precrack fronts resulted in lower T 0 than for specimens with ASTM standard qualified straight fatigue precrack fronts. The results highlight the importance of experimental quality control in developing SSTT for Master Curve fracture toughness testing. Lastly, we also evaluated and provided recommendations on the minimum number of specimens needed for each specimen type for yielding reliable T 0Q values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enthalpy of Uranium Adsorption onto Hematite

The influence of temperature on the adsorption of metal-ions at the solid-water interface is often overlooked, despite the important role that adsorption plays in metal ion fate and transport in the natural environment where temperatures vary widely. Herein, we examine the temperature-dependent adsorption of uranium, a widespread radioactive contaminant, onto the ubiquitous iron oxide, hematite. The multi-temperature batch adsorption data and surface complexation models indicate that adsorption of uranium, as the hexavalent uranyl (UO 2 2+ ) ion, increases significantly with increasing temperature, with an adsorption enthalpy (ΔH ads ) of +71 kJ mol –1 . We suggest that this endothermic, entropically-driven adsorption behavior is linked to reorganization of the uranyl-ion-hydration and interfacial water structures upon U VI adsorption at the hematite surface. Altogether, this work provides fundamental insight into the thermodynamics driving metal-ion adsorption reactions and provides the specific enthalpy value necessary for improved predictive geochemical modeling of U VI adsorption in the environment.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A Multiscale Simulation Study of Influence of Morphology on Ion Transport in Block Copolymeric Ionic Liquids

In this work, we present results of a multiscale simulation study involving coarse-graining and reverse-mapping steps probing at an atomistic resolution the influence of morphology on ion transport in block copolymer polymeric ionic liquids. We provide a detailed description of the multiscale simulation methodology and then describe the results in the context of four microphase-separated morphologies: two lamella systems, a cylinder, and a gyroid morphology. For the framework adopted in this study (in which the total number of ions was maintained fixed), morphology had little influence on the fraction of ions segregating to the interface and the coordination and hopping characteristics of such interfacially present ions. Such results manifested in anion mobilities being insensitive to the morphology once the dimensionality of the morphology was accounted for. Overall, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the mobility of ions in such microphase-separated morphologies, after accounting for the dimensionality effects, can be roughly correlated to a linear superposition based on the fraction of bulk anions, which possess mobilities unperturbed from their values in the conducting homopolymers, and the interfacial anions, which exhibit much lower mobilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

From physics to fixtures to food: current and potential LED efficacy

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have enabled a historic increase in the conversion of electric energy to photons, but this is approaching a physical limit. The theoretical maximum efficiency occurs when all input energy is converted to energy in photosynthetic photons. Blue LEDs can be 93% efficient, phosphor-converted “whites” 76% efficient, and red LEDs 81% efficient. These improvements open new opportunities for horticultural lighting. Here we review (1) fundamental physics and efficiency of LEDs, (2) the current efficacy of LEDs, (3) the effect of spectral quality on crop yield, and (4) the potential efficacy of horticultural fixtures. Advances in the conversion of photons to yield can be achieved by optimization of spectral effects on plant morphology, which vary among species. Conversely, spectral effects on photosynthesis are remarkably similar across species, but the conventional definition of photosynthetic photons (400–700 nm) may need to be modified. The upper limit of LED fixture efficacy is determined by the LED package efficacy multiplied by four factors inherent to all fixtures: current droop, thermal droop, driver (power supply) inefficiencies, and optical losses. With current LED technology, the calculations indicate efficacy limits of 3.4 µmol J- 1 for white + red fixtures, and 4.1 µmol J -1 for blue + red fixtures. Adding optical protection from water and high humidity reduces these values by ~10%. We describe tradeoffs between peak efficacy and cost.

Agriculture↗

Substrate effects on spin relaxation in two-dimensional Dirac materials with strong spin-orbit coupling

Understanding substrate effects on spin dynamics and relaxation is of key importance for spin-based information technologies. However, the key factors that determine such effects, in particular for materials with strong spin-orbit coupling (SOC), have not been well understood. Here we performed first-principles real-time density-matrix dynamics simulations with SOC and the electron phonon and electron-impurity scattering for spin lifetimes (τ s ) of supported/free-standing germanene, a prototypical strong SOC 2D Dirac material. We show that the effects of different substrates on τ s can surprisingly differ by two orders of magnitude. We find that substrate effects on τ s are closely related to substrate-induced modifications of the SOC-field anisotropy, which changes the spin flip scattering matrix elements. We propose a new electronic quantity, named spin-flip angle θ ↑↓ , to characterize spin relaxation through intervalley spin-flip scattering. We find that $τ^{-1}_s$ is approximately proportional to the averaged value of sin 2 (θ ↑↓ /2), which serves as a guiding parameter of controlling spin relaxation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interaction-driven spontaneous ferromagnetic insulating states with odd Chern numbers

Motivated by recent experimental work on moiré systems in a strong magnetic field, we compute the compressibility as well as the spin correlations and Hofstadter spectrum of spinful electrons on a honeycomb lattice with Hubbard interactions using the determinantal quantum Monte Carlo method. While the interactions in general preserve quantum and anomalous Hall states, emergent features arise corresponding to an antiferromagnetic insulator at half-filling and other incompressible states following the Chern sequence ± (2N + 1). These odd integer Chern states exhibit strong ferromagnetic correlations and arise spontaneously without any external mechanism for breaking the spin-rotation symmetry. Analogs of these magnetic states should be observable in general interacting quantum Hall systems. In addition, the interacting Hofstadter spectrum is qualitatively similar to the experimental data at intermediate values of the on-site interaction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Negative capacitance regime in antiferroelectric PbZrO 3

The potential of antiferroelectrics to exhibit a negative capacitance regime has been largely overlooked as all the attention focused on their polar counterparts, ferroelectrics. We use nonequilibrium first-principles-based molecular dynamics to probe a negative capacitance regime in prototypical antiferroelectric PbZrO 3 . Simulations predict that this antiferroelectric can exhibit a negative capacitance/susceptibility regime in response of polarization to an internal electric field, which is a superposition of applied and residual depolarizing fields. Consequently, the regime emerges when the polarization surface charge in the polar phase of antiferroelectric is not fully screened, as is often the case in thin films and nanostructures. The negative capacitance regime occurs below the Curie temperature and disappears in the paraelectric phase. We find that the time the material spends in the negative capacitance regime is proportional to the time needed to complete antipolar–polar (or its reverse) transition and shortens as the frequency of the applied field increases. Furthermore, a negative susceptibility value exhibits strong dependence on the quality of surface charge screening with the largest in magnitude values occurring in the vicinity of the transition into a negative capacitance regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermoelectric properties of antimony selenide hexagonal nanotubes

Antimony selenide (Sb 2 Se 3 ) is a material widely used in photodetectors and relatively new as a possible material for thermoelectric applications. Taking advantage of the new properties after nanoscale fabrication, this material shows great potential for the development of efficient low temperature thermoelectric devices. Here, for this paper, we study the synthesis, the crystal properties and the thermal and thermoelectric transport response of Sb 2 Se 3 hexagonal nanotubes (HNT) in the temperature range between 120 and 370 K. HNT have a moderate electrical conductivity ~10 2 S m -1 while maintaining a reasonable Seebeck coefficient ~430 μV K -1 at 370 K. The electrical conductivity in Sb 2 Se 3 HNT is about 5 orders of magnitude larger and its thermal conductivity one half of what is found in bulk. Moreover, the calculated figure of merit (ZT) at room temperature is the largest value reported in antimony selenide 1D structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analytic insights on the information content of new observables

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as a rapidly growing field in nuclear science. Theoretical predictions of physical observables often involve extrapolations to regions that are poorly constrained by laboratory experi- ments and astrophysical observations. Without properly quantified theoretical errors, such model predictions are of limited value. Also, one often deals with theoretical constructs that involve fundamental quantities that are not accessible to experiment or observation. Particularly relevant in this context is the pressure of pure neutron matter. Furthermore, in this Rapid Communication, we develop an analytic framework to answer the question of “How can new data reduce uncertainties of current theoretical models?” Simple and insightful expressions are obtained to quantify the impact of one or two new observables on theoretical uncertainties in two critical quantities: The slope of the symmetry energy at saturation density and the pressure of pure neutron matter at twice nuclear matter saturation density.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Parameterization of the Cloud Scattering Polarization Signal Derived From GPM Observations for Microwave Fast Radative Transfer Models

Microwave cloud polarized observations have shown the potential to improve precipitation retrievals since they are linked to the orientation and shape of ice habits. Stratiform clouds show larger brightness temperature (TB) polarization differences (PDs), defined as the vertically polarized TB (TBV) minus the horizontally polarized TB (TBH), with ~10 K PD values at 89 GHz due to the presence of horizontally aligned snowflakes, while convective regions show smaller PD signals, as graupel and/or hail in the updraft tend to become randomly oriented. The launch of the global precipitation measurement (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) has extended the availability of microwave polarized observations to higher frequencies (166 GHz) in the tropics and midlatitudes, previously only available up to 89 GHz. This study analyzes one year of GMI observations to explore further the previously reported stable relationship between the PD and the observed TBs at 89 and 166 GHz, respectively. The latitudinal and seasonal variability is analyzed to propose a cloud scattering polarization parameterization of the PD-TB relationship, capable of reconstructing the PD signal from simulated TBs. Given that operational radiative transfer (RT) models do not currently simulate the cloud polarized signals, this is an alternative and simple solution to exploit the large number of cloud polarized observations available. Finally, the atmospheric radiative transfer simulator (ARTS) is coupled with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, in order to apply the proposed parameterization to the RT simulated TBs and hence infer the corresponding PD values, which show to reproduce the observed GMI PDs well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tencoder: tensor-product encoder-decoder architecture for predicting solutions of PDEs with variable boundary data

It is widely hoped that artificial intelligence will boost data-driven surrogate models in science and engineering. However, fundamental spatial aspects of AI surrogate models remain under-studied. We investigate the ability of neural-network surrogate models to predict solutions to PDEs under variable boundary values. We do not wish to retrain the model when the boundary values change but to make them inputs to the model and infer the solution of the PDE under those boundary conditions. Such a capability is essential to making AI-based surrogate models practically useful. While simple feedforward networks are used for one-dimensional (1D) Poisson equation, an encoder-decoder architecture with a tensor-product layer is developed for the two-dimensional Poisson equation posed on a rectangular domain. We show that it is indeed possible to infer solutions to PDEs from variable boundary data using neural networks in this relatively simple setting, and point to future directions.

Kashi, Aditya↗

ESS-DIVE Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) Reporting Format v1

Here we present documentation of the ESS-DIVE reporting format for Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) data and metadata. This reporting format provides guidance to data contributors on how to store data to maximize their discoverability, facilitate their efficient reuse, and add value to individual datasets. For data users, the reporting format will better allow data repositories to optimize data search and extraction, and more readily integrate similar data into harmonized synthesis products. The reporting format provides templates and guidance for the reporting of metadata for UAS experimental campaigns, individual flights, platform and sensor description. To improve data access and discoverability, the reporting format proposes a data description scheme of Levels based on the degree of processing, where Level 0 includes raw data, through to Level 3 being derived data end products. A range of examples of data types for each Level are given, with suggested file naming schemes. The reporting format presented here is intended to form a foundation for future development that will accommodate new UAS technologies and approaches to data access and use in the future. The reporting format documentation is maintained and updated on the ESS-DIVE Community Space GitHub at https://github.com/ess-dive-community/essdive-uas. This data package is the first published version of this reporting format, and comprises a zip file of the complete content of https://github.com/ess-dive-community/essdive-uas v1.0. The zip contains the reporting format description, instructions and variable definitions in GitHub markdown language (*.md) and metadata templates in csv format. The reporting format is designed to be compatible with other ESS-DIVE formats, and it is specifically recommended that this reporting format be used in conjunction with the File-level metadata (FLMD) and comma separated values (csv) reporting formats for submission to the ESS-DIVE repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Hygroscopicity Value-Added Product Report

The purpose of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s cloud condensation nuclei hygroscopicity parameter (AOSCCNSMPSKAPPA) value-added product (VAP) is to calculate the hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, to quantify the ability of aerosols to activate into cloud water droplets. The hygroscopicity parameter is often used to model the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of atmospheric aerosols of different sizes and compositions, providing additional insight on the influence of aerosols on climate. Laboratory experiments show that the kappa values for highly hygroscopic aerosols, such as salts and sulfates, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 (Petters and Kreidenweis 2007). For organic compounds they are observed to vary between 0.01 and 0.5. For non-hygroscopic aerosols, such as soot, kappa values are very close to zero. Ambient aerosols are complex mixtures of organic and inorganic compounds and previous observations indicate that kappa values typically vary from 0.05 to 0.9 (Petters and Kreidenweis 2007).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗