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An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Murphy, Patrick Charles↗

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

A regional rainfall climatology over Mexico and the southwest United States derived from passive microwave and geosynchronous infrared data

A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

Powered Descent Guidance with General Thrust-Pointing Constraints

The Powered Descent Guidance (PDG) algorithm and software for generating Mars pinpoint or precision landing guidance profiles has been enhanced to incorporate thrust-pointing constraints. Pointing constraints would typically be needed for onboard sensor and navigation systems that have specific field-of-view requirements to generate valid ground proximity and terrain-relative state measurements. The original PDG algorithm was designed to enforce both control and state constraints, including maximum and minimum thrust bounds, avoidance of the ground or descent within a glide slope cone, and maximum speed limits. The thrust-bound and thrust-pointing constraints within PDG are non-convex, which in general requires nonlinear optimization methods to generate solutions. The short duration of Mars powered descent requires guaranteed PDG convergence to a solution within a finite time; however, nonlinear optimization methods have no guarantees of convergence to the global optimal or convergence within finite computation time. A lossless convexification developed for the original PDG algorithm relaxed the non-convex thrust bound constraints. This relaxation was theoretically proven to provide valid and optimal solutions for the original, non-convex problem within a convex framework. As with the thrust bound constraint, a relaxation of the thrust-pointing constraint also provides a lossless convexification that ensures the enhanced relaxed PDG algorithm remains convex and retains validity for the original nonconvex problem. The enhanced PDG algorithm provides guidance profiles for pinpoint and precision landing that minimize fuel usage, minimize landing error to the target, and ensure satisfaction of all position and control constraints, including thrust bounds and now thrust-pointing constraints.

Carson, John M., III↗

Lidar Systems for Precision Navigation and Safe Landing on Planetary Bodies

The ability of lidar technology to provide three-dimensional elevation maps of the terrain, high precision distance to the ground, and approach velocity can enable safe landing of robotic and manned vehicles with a high degree of precision. Currently, NASA is developing novel lidar sensors aimed at needs of future planetary landing missions. These lidar sensors are a 3-Dimensional Imaging Flash Lidar, a Doppler Lidar, and a Laser Altimeter. The Flash Lidar is capable of generating elevation maps of the terrain that indicate hazardous features such as rocks, craters, and steep slopes. The elevation maps collected during the approach phase of a landing vehicle, at about 1 km above the ground, can be used to determine the most suitable safe landing site. The Doppler Lidar provides highly accurate ground relative velocity and distance data allowing for precision navigation to the landing site. Our Doppler lidar utilizes three laser beams pointed to different directions to measure line of sight velocities and ranges to the ground from altitudes of over 2 km. Throughout the landing trajectory starting at altitudes of about 20 km, the Laser Altimeter can provide very accurate ground relative altitude measurements that are used to improve the vehicle position knowledge obtained from the vehicle navigation system. At altitudes from approximately 15 km to 10 km, either the Laser Altimeter or the Flash Lidar can be used to generate contour maps of the terrain, identifying known surface features such as craters, to perform Terrain relative Navigation thus further reducing the vehicle s relative position error. This paper describes the operational capabilities of each lidar sensor and provides a status of their development. Keywords: Laser Remote Sensing, Laser Radar, Doppler Lidar, Flash Lidar, 3-D Imaging, Laser Altimeter, Precession Landing, Hazard Detection

Amzajerdian, Farzin↗

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗

Millimeter-Wave Localizers for Aircraft-to-Aircraft Approach Navigation

Aerial refueling technology for both manned and unmanned aircraft is critical for operations where extended aircraft flight time is required. Existing refueling assets are typically manned aircraft, which couple to a second aircraft through the use of a refueling boom. Alignment and mating of the two aircraft continues to rely on human control with use of high-resolution cameras. With the recent advances in unmanned aircraft, it would be highly advantageous to remove/reduce human control from the refueling process, simplifying the amount of remote mission management and enabling new operational scenarios. Existing aerial refueling uses a camera, making it non-autonomous and prone to human error. Existing commercial localizer technology has proven robust and reliable, but not suited for aircraft-to-aircraft approaches like in aerial refueling scenarios since the resolution is too coarse (approximately one meter). A localizer approach system for aircraft-to-aircraft docking can be constructed using the same modulation with a millimeterwave carrier to provide high resolution. One technology used to remotely align commercial aircraft on approach to a runway are ILS (instrument landing systems). ILS have been in service within the U.S. for almost 50 years. In a commercial ILS, two partially overlapping beams of UHF (109 to 126 MHz) are broadcast from an antenna array so that their overlapping region defines the centerline of the runway. This is called a localizer system and is responsible for horizontal alignment of the approach. One beam is modulated with a 150-Hz tone, while the other with a 90-Hz tone. Through comparison of the modulation depths of both tones, an autopilot system aligns the approaching aircraft with the runway centerline. A similar system called a glide-slope (GS) exists in the 320-to-330MHz band for vertical alignment of the approach. While this technology has been proven reliable for millions of commercial flights annually, its UHF nature limits its ability to operate beyond the 1-to-2-meter precisions associated with commercial runway width. A prototype ILS-type system operates at millimeter-wave frequencies to provide automatic and robust approach control for aerial refueling. The system allows for the coupling process to remain completely autonomous, as a boom operator is no longer required. Operating beyond 100 GHz provides enough resolution and a narrow enough beamwidth that an approach corridor of centimeter scales can be maintained. Two modules were used to accomplish this task. The first module is a localizer/glide-slope module that can be fitted on a refueling aircraft. This module provides the navigation beams for aligning the approaching aircraft. The second module is navigational receiver fitted onto the approaching aircraft to be re fueled that can detect the approach beams. Since unmanned aircraft have a limited payload size and limited electrical power, the receiver portion was implemented in CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) technology based on a super-regenerative receiver (SRR) architecture. The SRR achieves mW-level power consumption and chip sizes less than l mm2. While super-regenerative techniques have small bandwidths that limit use in communication systems, their advantages of high sensitivity, low complexity, and low power make them ideal in this situation where modulating tones of less than 1 kHz are used.

Tang, Adrian J.↗

Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

Argus, Donald F.↗

How do tradeoffs in satellite spatial and temporal resolution impact snow water equivalent reconstruction?

Given the tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution, questions about resolution optimality are fundamental to the study of global snow. Answers to these questions will inform future scientific priorities and mission specifications. Heterogeneity of mountain snowpacks drives a need for daily snow cover mapping at the slope scale (≤30 m) that is unmet for a variety of scientific users, ranging from hydrologists to the military to wildlife biologists. But finer spatial resolution usually requires coarser temporal or spectral resolution. Thus, no single sensor can meet all these needs. Recently, constellations of satellites and fusion techniques have made noteworthy progress. The efficacy of two such recent advances is examined: (1) a fused MODIS–Landsat product with daily 30 m spatial resolution and (2) a harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2A and B (HLS) product with 3–4 d temporal and 30 m spatial resolution. State-of-the-art spectral unmixing techniques are applied to surface reflectance products from 1 and 2 to create snow cover and albedo maps. Then an energy balance model was run to reconstruct snow water equivalent (SWE). For validation, lidar-based Airborne Snow Observatory SWE estimates were used. Results show that reconstructed SWE forced with 30 m resolution snow cover has lower bias, a measure of basin-wide accuracy, than the baseline case using MODIS (463 m cell size) but greater mean absolute error, a measure of per-pixel accuracy. However, the differences in errors may be within uncertainties from scaling artifacts, e.g., basin boundary delineation. Other explanations are (1) the importance of daily acquisitions and (2) the limitations of downscaled forcings for reconstruction. Conclusions are as follows: (1) spectrally unmixed snow cover and snow albedo from MODIS continue to provide accurate forcings for snow models and (2) finer spatial and temporal resolution through sensor design, fusion techniques, and satellite constellations are the future for Earth observations, but existing moderate-resolution sensors still offer value.

Edward H. Bair↗

Very low mass stars and white dwarfs in NGC 6397

Deep Wide Field/Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) images in wide bands centered at 606 and 802 nm were taken with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) 4.6 min from the center of the galactic globular cluster NGC 6397. The images were used to accurately position approximately 2120 stars detected in the field on a color magnitude diagram down to a limiting magnitude m(sub 814) approximately = m(sub I) approximately = 26 determined reliably and solely by counting statistics. A white dwarf sequence and a rich, narrow cluster main sequence are detected for the first time, the latter stretching from m(sub 814) = 18.5 to m(sub 814) = 24.0 where it becomes indistinguishable from the field population. Two changes of slope of the main sequence at m(sub 814) approximately = 20 and m(sub 814) approximately = 22.5 are evident. The corresponding luminosity function increases slowly from M(sub 814) approximately = 6.5 to 8.5 are expected from ground-based observations but then drops sharply from there dwon to the measurement limit. The corresponding mass function obtained bu using the only presently available mass-luminosity function for the cluster's metallicity rises to a plateau between approximately 0.25 and approximately 0.15 solar mass, but drops toward the expected mass limit of the normal hydrogen burning main sequence at approximately 0.1 solar mass. This result is in clear contrast to that obtained from the ground and implies either a substantial modification of the cluster's initial mass function due to dynamical evolution in its lifetime, or that very low mass stars are not produced in any dynamically significant amount by clusters of this type. The white dwarf sequence is in reasonable agreement with a cooling sequence of models of mass 0.5 solar mass at the canonical distance of NGC 6397 with a scatter that is most likely due to photometric errors, but may also reflect real differences in mass or chemical composition. Contamination from unresolved galaxies, which cannot be reliably identified with our filters, makes it difficult to meaningfully compare the observed white dwarf luminosity function with its theoretical counterpart.

Paresce, Francesco↗

Emissions Relationships in Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Reducing the Effect of Mixing Errors on Emission Factors

Studies of emission factors from biomass burning using aircraft data complement the results of lab studies and extend them to conditions of immense hot conflagrations. We illustrate and discuss emission relationships for 422 individual samples from many forest-fire plumes in the Western US. The samples are from two NASA investigations: ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) and SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys). This work provides sample-by-sample enhancement ratios (EnRs) for 23 gases and particulate properties. Many EnRs provide candidates for emission ratios (ERs, corresponding to the EnR at the source) when the origin and degree of transformation is understood and appropriate. From these, emission factors (EFs) can be estimated when the fuel dry mass consumed is known or can be estimated using the carbon mass budget approach. This analysis requires understanding the interplay of mixing of the plume with surrounding air. Some initial examples emphasize that measured C(tot) = CO2 + CO in a fire plume does not necessarily describe the emissions of the total carbon liberated in the flames, C(burn). Rather, it represents C(tot) = C(burn) + C(bkgd), which includes possibly varying background concentrations for entrained air. Consequently, we present a simple theoretical description for plume entrainment for multiple tracers from flame to hundreds of kilometers downwind and illustrate some intrinsic linear behaviors. The analysis suggests a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET), which can eliminate occasional strong biases associated with the commonly used normalized excess mixing ratio (NEMR) method. MERET splits C(tot) to reveal C(burn) by exploiting the fact that C(burn) and all tracers respond linearly to dilution, while each tracer has consistent EnR behavior (slope of tracer concentration with respect to C(burn)). The two effects are separable. Two or three or preferably more emission indicators are required as a minimum; here we used ten. Limited variations in the EnRs for each tracer can be incorporated and the variations and co-variations analyzed. The percentage CO yield (or the modified combustion efficiency) plays some role. Other co-relationships involving nitrogen and organic classes are more prominent; these have strong relationships to the C(burn) to O3 emission relationship. In summary, MERET allows fine spatial resolution (EnRs for individual observations) and comparison of similar plumes distant in time and space. Alkene ratios provide us with an approximate photochemical timescale. This allows discrimination and definition, by fire situation, of ERs, allowing us to estimate emission factors.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

The signature of the cosmological redshift in population studies of gamma-ray burst spectra

The slope of a gamma-ray burst spectrum determines how the burst flux decreases as the cosmological redshift z increases. This provides a test for the presence of a cosmological redshift in a sample of gamma-ray bursts. Many bursts have spectra characterized by a frequency-dependent power-law index, so a burst subset can be created by requiring that each subset member have a power-law index of the given value at a low frequency and an index of a different given value at a high frequency. If all bursts in this subset are at z much less than 0.1, then the flux at low frequency will change proportionally with the flux at high frequency. If, however, z greater than 0.1 for most bursts, then the linear dependence of the high-frequency flux on the low-frequency flux disappears at the flux characterizing the spatial cutoff in the log N-log C(max)/C(min) diagram. This signature of the cosmological redshift generally persists when gamma-ray bursts are given a broad distribution of intrinsic fluxes and spectral shapes. The characteristics that a burst distribution must have to mask the cosmological redshift are discussed. The limitations of this test are observational, arising primarily from errors in measuring the photon flux and in determining the spectral index of the burst spectrum.

Brainerd, J. J.↗

Stress-Dependent Voltage Offsets From Polymer Insulators Used in Rock Mechanics and Material Testing

Dielectric insulators are used in a variety of laboratory settings when performing experiments in rock mechanics, petrology, and electromagnetic studies of rocks in the fields of geophysics,material science, and civil engineering. These components may be used to electrically isolate geological samples from the experimental equipment, to perform a mechanical compliance function between brittle samples and the loading equipment, to match ultrasonic transducers, or perform other functions. In manyexperimental configurations the insulators bear the full brunt of force applied to the sample but do not need to withstand high voltages, therefore the insulators are often thin sheets of mechanically tough polymers. From an instrument perspective, transduction from various types of mechanical perturbation has beenqualitatively compared for a number of polymers [1, 2] and these error sources are readily apparent duringhigh-impedance measurements if not mitigated. However even when following best practices, a force dependent voltage signal still remains and its behavior is explored in this presentation. In this experimenttwo thin sheets (0.25 mm) of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) were set up in a stack, held alternatelybetween three aluminum bars; this stack was placed on the platen of a 60T capacity hydraulic testingmachine. The surface area, A, over which the force is applied to the PE sheets in this sandwich is roughly 40 square cm, each sheet forming a parallel-plate capacitor having roughly 320 pF [3], assuming therelative dielectric permittivity of PE is approximately 2.3. The outer two aluminum bars were connected to the LO input ofthe electrometer and the central aluminum bar was connected to the HI input of a Keithley model 617 electrometer. Once the stack is mechanically well-seated with no air gaps, the voltage offset is observed tobe a linear function of the baseline voltage for a given change in applied force. For a periodically appliedforce of 66.7 kN the voltage offsets were measured as a function of initial voltage, and these data were fitwith a linear function that was constrained to pass through the origin. The best fit solution had a correlation coefficient of R=0.85 and a slope of approximately -0.0228 volts/volt. The voltage offset when normalizedis demonstrated to be constant -2.28% for both positive and negative polarities over nearly 3 orders ofbaseline voltage magnitude. From this, the voltage-force coefficient is derived to be -0.34 ppm/N. Thiscorrelates well to a first-order parallel plate capacitor model that assumes constant area, and smalldeformation such that the polymer may be mechanically modeled by a spring that obeys Hookes law. Thissimple model predicts that the coefficient of proportionality is a function of Youngs modulus E= 0.8 GPaand surface area of the insulator, theoretically -1EA= -0.31 ppm/N. The outcome of this work is animproved insulator made from ultra-high molecular weight (UHMW) polyethylene and other approachestoward the minimization of and compensation for these experimental artifacts.

Electromagnetic Studies of Rocks↗

Estimation of Crop Gross Primary Production (GPP): I. Impact of MODIS Observation Footprint and Impact of Vegetation BRDF Characteristics

Accurate estimation of gross primary production (GPP) is essential for carbon cycle and climate change studies. Three AmeriFlux crop sites of maize and soybean were selected for this study. Two of the sites were irrigated and the other one was rainfed. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the green band chlorophyll index (CIgreen), and the green band wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVIgreen) were computed from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. We examined the impacts of the MODIS observation footprint and the vegetation bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) on crop daily GPP estimation with the four spectral vegetation indices (VIs - NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen and CIgreen) where GPP was predicted with two linear models, with and without offset: GPP = a × VI × PAR and GPP = a × VI × PAR + b. Model performance was evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of variation (CV). The MODIS data were filtered into four categories and four experiments were conducted to assess the impacts. The first experiment included all observations. The second experiment only included observations with view zenith angle (VZA) ≤ 35◦ to constrain growth of the footprint size,which achieved a better grid cell match with the agricultural fields. The third experiment included only forward scatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. The fourth experiment included only backscatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. Overall, the EVI yielded the most consistently strong relationships to daily GPP under all examined conditions. The model GPP = a × VI × PAR + b had better performance than the model GPP = a × VI × PAR, and the offset was significant for most cases. Better performance was obtained for the irrigated field than its counterpart rainfed field. Comparison of experiment 2 vs. experiment 1 was used to examine the observation footprint impact whereas comparison of experiment 4 vs. experiment 3 was used to examine the BRDF impact. Changes in R2, RMSE,CV and changes in model coefficients "a" and "b" (experiment 2 vs. experiment 1; and experiment 4 vs. experiment 3) were indicators of the impacts. The second experiment produced better performance than the first experiment, increasing R2 (↑0.13) and reducing RMSE (↓0.68 g C m−2 d−1) and CV (↓9%). For each VI, the slope of GPP = a × VI × PAR in the second experiment for each crop type changed little while the slope and intercept of GPP = a × VI × PAR + b varied field by field. The CIgreen was least affected by the MODIS observation footprint in estimating crop daily GPP (R2, ↑0.08; RMSE, ↓0.42 g C m−2 d−1; and CV, ↓7%). Footprint most affected the NDVI (R2, ↑0.15; CV, ↓10%) and the EVI (RMSE, ↓0.84 g C m−2 d−1). The vegetation BRDF impact also caused variation of model performance and change of model coefficients. Significantly different slopes were obtained for forward vs. backscatter observations, especially for the CIgreen and the NDVI. Both the footprint impact and the BRDF impact varied with crop types, irrigation options, model options and VI options.

Chlorophyll↗

Aerosol Optical Properties Derived from the DRAGON-NE Asia Campaign, and Implications for a Single-Channel Algorithm to Retrieve Aerosol Optical Depth in Spring from Meteorological Imager (MI) On-Board the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS)

An aerosol model optimized for northeast Asia is updated with the inversion data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON)-northeast (NE) Asia campaign which was conducted during spring from March to May 2012. This updated aerosol model was then applied to a single visible channel algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) from a Meteorological Imager (MI) on-board the geostationary meteorological satellite, Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS). This model plays an important role in retrieving accurate AOD from a single visible channel measurement. For the single-channel retrieval, sensitivity tests showed that perturbations by 4 % (0.926 +/- 0.04) in the assumed single scattering albedo (SSA) can result in the retrieval error in AOD by over 20 %. Since the measured reflectance at the top of the atmosphere depends on both AOD and SSA, the overestimation of assumed SSA in the aerosol model leads to an underestimation of AOD. Based on the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) inversion data sets obtained over East Asia before 2011, seasonally analyzed aerosol optical properties (AOPs) were categorized by SSAs at 675 nm of 0.92 +/- 0.035 for spring (March, April, and May). After the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign in 2012, the SSA during spring showed a slight increase to 0.93 +/- 0.035. In terms of the volume size distribution, the mode radius of coarse particles was increased from 2.08 +/- 0.40 to 2.14 +/- 0.40. While the original aerosol model consists of volume size distribution and refractive indices obtained before 2011, the new model is constructed by using a total data set after the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign. The large volume of data in high spatial resolution from this intensive campaign can be used to improve the representative aerosol model for East Asia. Accordingly, the new AOD data sets retrieved from a single-channel algorithm, which uses a precalculated look-up table (LUT) with the new aerosol model, show an improved correlation with the measured AOD during the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign. The correlation between the new AOD and AERONET value shows a regression slope of 1.00, while the comparison of the original AOD data retrieved using the original aerosol model shows a slope of 1.08. The change of y-offset is not significant, and the correlation coefficients for the comparisons of the original and new AOD are 0.87 and 0.85, respectively. The tendency of the original aerosol model to overestimate the retrieved AOD is significantly improved by using the SSA values in addition to size distribution and refractive index obtained using the new model.

Kim, M.↗

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Overlapping Detection Algorithm Using Solar and IR Wavelengths with GOES Data Over ARM/SGP Site

One of the most perplexing problems in satellite cloud remote sensing is the overlapping of cloud layers. Although most techniques assume a one layer cloud system in a given retrieval of cloud properties, many observations are affected by radiation from more than one cloud layer. As such, cloud overlap can cause errors in the retrieval of many properties including cloud height, optical depth, phase, and particle size. A variety of methods have been developed to identify overlapped clouds in a given satellite imager pixel. Baum et al used CO2 slicing and a spatial coherence method to demonstrate a possible analysis method for nighttime detection of multilayered clouds. Jin and Rossow also used a multispectral CO2 slicing technique for a global analysis of overlapped cloud amount. Lin et al. used a combination infrared (IR), visible (VIS), and microwave data to detect overlapped clouds over water. Recently, Baum and Spinhirne proposed a 1.6 and 11 micron bispectral threshold method. While all of these methods have made progress in solving this stubborn problem none have yet proven satisfactory for continuous and consistent monitoring of multilayer cloud systems. It is clear that detection of overlapping clouds from passive instruments such as satellite radiometers is in an immature stage of development and requires additional research. Overlapped cloud systems also affect the retrievals of cloud properties over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) domains and hence should be identified as accurately as possible. To reach this goal, it is necessary to determine which information can be exploited for detecting multilayered clouds from operational meteorological satellite data used by ARM. This paper examines the potential information available in spectral data available on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) used over the ARM Program's Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites to study the capability of detecting overlapping clouds.

Kawamoto, K.↗

Mixing model analysis of telescopic lunar spectra

We have analyzed very high quality reflectance spectra of the lunar surface from the University of Hawaii lunar spectral data collection using a spectral mixing model. The spectra analyzed are those of 45 mare sites and 75 highland sites. The spectra were selected on the basis of very high signal to noise ratios based on error bars and point to point scatter, and on quality of removal of telluric water bands. The spectral mixing model used 7 components, not all of which were used in each fit. Four of the components were mineral spectra of the orthopyroxene, a clinopyroxene, an olivine and an anorthite, measured at the Brown University's RELAB. All of the minerals were 45-90 micron splits. Lunar soil contains other components which have the effect of reddening and darkening the soil as well as reducing spectral contrast. In addition, lunar soil contains spectral neutral bright material (likely very fine grained feldspar) which serves to reduce spectral contrast and brighten soils. Early attempts to fit many of the spectra pointed out the need for a component which has a very broad smooth absorption feature centered near 1.1 microns. Glass is a good candidate for this component. For the bright component we used a flat reflectance of 70 percent to represent fine grained feldspar. For the 'glass' component we used a telescopic spectrum of a pyroclastic glass present on the Aristarchus plateau which is characterized by a strong smooth band centered at 1.07 microns. In addition to exhibiting the glass band this spectrum is very red and has a low albedo. On the assumption that the dark component and the red component are agglutinates, which is reasonable but not necessarily true, we sought a dark red component. To derive its properties we modelled the spectrum of an Apollo 16 soil (16xxx) and assumed the dark red component to comprise 60 percent of the soil, appropriate to agglutinate abundance in mature soil. We adjusted the albedo and slope of a straight line representing the dark red component until the contrast and albedo of the model spectrum matched the soil spectrum. The mixing was done after conversion to a single scattering albedo.

Lucey, Paul G.↗