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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1980

Satellite-inferred morning-to-evening cloudiness changes

Outgoing infrared radiation values inferred from radiance measurements in the water vapor window taken at approximately 0900 and 2100 LT by scanning radiometers aboard the polar orbiting NOAA satellites are compared in order to determine whether a significant diurnal variation exists. Data with a resolution of 2.5 deg in latitude and longitude are mapped for latitudes between 50 deg N and 50 deg S for two seasons, June-August 1975 and December 1975-February 1976. Over land regions and coastal waters it is found that the 12-h differences in outgoing IR are dominated by middle and high clouds, likely of convective origin. Over the tropical oceans there is evidence of a morning bias in high cloudiness (possibly of convective origin) and low cloudiness (stratus, stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus), and an evening bias in middle cloudiness. Because of the compensation between these three cloud regimes the net morning to evening differences in outgoing IR are rather small except over the eastern oceans where the low cloud regime predominates and tends to produce a weak but statistically significant evening maximum.

Short, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A statistical survey of the central plasma sheet

We present a statistical analysis of the ion plasma properties and magnetic field of the central plasma sheet at distances from 10 to 23 R(sub E) from the Earth. This study incorporates International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 plasma sheet samples accumulated with the University of Iowa Lepedea plasma analyzer during 1979. Our study of the bulk properties of the ion plasma shows that there is relatively little change as a result of increasing geomagnetic activity. The main macroscopic effect is an increase in plasma temperature. When the transverse profile of the plasma sheet is examined, it is clear that this increase in temperature occurs preferentially at high latitudes. The magnetic field shows an increase in magnitude in the vicinity of the neutral sheet periods of high geomagnetic activity. The radial profiles of the density, temperature, plasma, and magnetic pressures show a gradient in total energy density in the plasma sheet. The convective velocities are systematically directed earthward, and there is a bias toward positive V(sub y) on the duskside of the magnetotail. We infer that particle motion can be attributed to a pressure gradient, combined with steady state convective electric fields. We compute the convective electric fields from our measured bulk velocities, arriving at a pattern similar to that observed at low altitudes. The cross-tail electric field E(sub y) is dominant near the neutral sheet region, but at high latitudes E(sub z) is a major component. Our results suggest that the plasma sheet boundary layer, rather than the central plasma sheet, is a region of diverging electric fields. The picture of the plasma sheet that emerges from our study is that of a stable reservoir of hot plasma in which thermodynamic, rather than dynamic, processes is important.

Huang, C. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗
NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Seyfert II nature of the IRAS source FSC 10214+4724

We have observed the rest-frame optical and UV spectra of the luminous, high redshift Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) source FSC 10214+4724. We find the optical emission lines to be characterized by ratios similar to those found in Seyfert II galaxies. We support the conclusion of previous work that the UV emission lines are similar to those attributed to Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) rather than to star formation. The ratio H alpha/H beta greater than or equal to 20 (2 sigma lower limit) implies substantial reddening of the narrow line region with A(sub V) greater than 5.5, sufficient to hide a broad line region in our H alpha observations. Given this large inferred reddening and the strength of the UV continuum and emission lines, we conclude (as have others) that simple screen models of reddening are not appropriate for this object. These properties are very similar to those of the infrared luminous galaxies at lower redshift, suggesting that FSC 10244+4724 is the luminous extreme of the same population. We also present H band (1.6 micrometer) imaging polarimetry observations and find that the rest-frame optical emission is unpolarized (P = 3.2% +/- 22.0%). This deep image of the field shows FSC 10214+4724 to possess an unresolved core, with several companions located within 10 sec of the point source. We find it unlikely that this group of objects is physically associated with FSC 10214+4724 at z = 2.3, and we argue that their magnitudes and colors are more consistant with those expected with those expected for galaxies in a foreground group. While galaxy number counts would suggest that such a projection has a low probability of being observed randomly, a foreground group might gravitational lens the z = 2.3 source, making such random statistics inappropriate, and contribute to the large observed luminosity of FSC 10214+4724. Comparison of H band images taken on two occasions one year apart show that FSC 10214+4724 had varied by 0.16 +/- 0.03 mag relative to a nearby star during that time. The UV-optical emission line spectra, the bright dereddened continuum magnitude (K less than 12) of the unresolved core, its extremely large bolometric luminosity, strong UV polarization, and possible variability all suggest that FSC 10214+4724 harbors an obscured AGN. Given that we observe no spectral features attributable to star formation, it appears either that star formation in FSC 10214+4724 is more highly obscured at optical and UV wavelengths than the narrow line region of the AGN, or that the AGN (rather than star formation) dominates the large luminosity of this object.

Elston, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2014

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗
NASA NTRS2015

Coronae of Stars with Supersolar Elemental Abundances

Coronal elemental abundances are known to deviate from the photospheric values of their parent star, with the degree of deviation depending on the first ionization potential (FIP). This study focuses on the coronal composition of stars with supersolar photospheric abundances. We present the coronal abundances of six such stars: 11 LMi, iota Hor, HR 7291, tau Boo, and alpha Cen A and B. These stars all have high-statistics X-ray spectra, three of which are presented for the first time. The abundances we measured were obtained using the line-resolved spectra of the Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS) in conjunction with the higher throughput EPIC-pn camera spectra onboard the XMM-Newton observatory. A collisionally ionized plasma model with two or three temperature components is found to represent the spectra well. All elements are found to be consistently depleted in the coronae compared to their respective photospheres. For 11 LMi and tau Boo no FIP effect is present, while iota Hor, HR 7291, and alpha Cen A and B show a clear FIP trend. These conclusions hold whether the comparison is made with solar abundances or the individual stellar abundances. Unlike the solar corona, where low-FIP elements are enriched, in these stars the FIP effect is consistently due to a depletion of high-FIP elements with respect to actual photospheric abundances. A comparison with solar (instead of stellar) abundances yields the same fractionation trend as on the Sun. In both cases, a similar FIP bias is inferred, but different fractionation mechanisms need to be invoked.

stars: abundances / stars: coronae / stars: genera↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impact of Scattering Model on Disdrometer Derived Attenuation Scaling

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) are currently entering the third year of a joint propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacons of the Alphasat TDP5 Aldo Paraboni scientific payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers were installed at the POLIMI campus in June of 2014 and provide direct measurements of signal attenuation at each frequency. Collocated weather instrumentation provides concurrent measurement of atmospheric conditions at the receiver; included among these weather instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which records droplet size distributions (DSD) and droplet velocity distributions (DVD) during precipitation events. This information can be used to derive the specific attenuation at frequencies of interest and thereby scale measured attenuation data from one frequency to another. Given the ability to both predict the 40 GHz attenuation from the disdrometer and the 20 GHz timeseries as well as to directly measure the 40 GHz attenuation with the beacon receiver, the Milan terminal is uniquely able to assess these scaling techniques and refine the methods used to infer attenuation from disdrometer data.In order to derive specific attenuation from the DSD, the forward scattering coefficient must be computed. In previous work, this has been done using the Mie scattering model, however, this assumes a spherical droplet shape. The primary goal of this analysis is to assess the impact of the scattering model and droplet shape on disdrometer derived attenuation predictions by comparing the use of the Mie scattering model to the use of the T-matrix method, which does not assume a spherical droplet. In particular, this paper will investigate the impact of these two scattering approaches on the error of the resulting predictions as well as on the relationship between prediction error and rain rate.

statistics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impact of Scattering Model on Disdrometer Derived Attenuation Scaling

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) are currently entering the third year of a joint propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacons of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni scientific payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers were installed at the POLIMI campus in June of 2014 and provide direct measurements of signal attenuation at each frequency. Collocated weather instrumentation provides concurrent measurement of atmospheric conditions at the receiver; included among these weather instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which records droplet size distributions (DSD) and droplet velocity distributions (DVD) during precipitation events. This information can be used to derive the specific attenuation at frequencies of interest and thereby scale measured attenuation data from one frequency to another. Given the ability to both predict the 40 gigahertz attenuation from the disdrometer and the 20 gigahertz time-series as well as to directly measure the 40 gigahertz attenuation with the beacon receiver, the Milan terminal is uniquely able to assess these scaling techniques and refine the methods used to infer attenuation from disdrometer data. In order to derive specific attenuation from the DSD, the forward scattering coefficient must be computed. In previous work, this has been done using the Mie scattering model, however, this assumes a spherical droplet shape. The primary goal of this analysis is to assess the impact of the scattering model and droplet shape on disdrometer-derived attenuation predictions by comparing the use of the Mie scattering model to the use of the T-matrix method, which does not assume a spherical droplet. In particular, this paper will investigate the impact of these two scattering approaches on the error of the resulting predictions as well as on the relationship between prediction error and rain rate.

Radio Transmission↗
NASA NTRS1997

Pioneer 10 and 11 Data Analysis

This report finishes the work of NASA Grant NAS2-153, which supported data analysis for the UCSD instruments on Pioneers 10 and 11. The data analyzed under this grant span 22 years of interplanetary measurements in the inner and outer heliosphere. The UCSD instruments made their mark in cosmic ray research based upon their high energy thresholds, directional responses, and reliable data streams. one of their primary scientific objectives concerns the size, configuration, and time behavior of the heliosphere. The size scale is inferred from the radial intensity gradient, which is measured between the two spacecraft and extrapolated to interstellar intensity levels at the cosmic ray modulation boundary. This boundary still eludes us, and its position, motion, and the best method of extrapolation are ongoing problems. Current projections place the boundary beyond 100 AU, which may be beyond the termination shock, and raises the question of possible modulation in the heliosheath. Probably our only hope of seeing this region in the immediate future rides on the possibility that the boundary will move inward. Our instruments have recorded many Forbush, or transient, decreases in the outer heliosphere. These observations led us to a model that attributes many of the decreases to solar wind stream-stream interactions, and relates the cosmic ray variations to the locally observed magnetic field magnitude. As the cosmic ray variations in this model result only from topological changes in the modulation integral, the model is a tool for studying the possibility that the 11 year cosmic ray modulation cycle can be accounted for by a superposition of Forbush decreases. The cosmic ray angular distribution function is measurable, given a good telemetry rate, by the UCSD Cerenkov detector which counts particles of energy greater than 500 MeV/n. We obtained statistically significant samples from 1 to 9 AU, at 13 AU, and at 34 AU. The anisotropy tends to be a few tenths of a per cent at all radial distances. A quasiperiodic variation in the east-west anisotropy with period of about 50 days remains unexplained.

Fillius, Walker↗
NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Modeling of Sound Transmission through Shell Structures with Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitation

The turbulent boundary layer (TBL) pressure field is an important source of cabin noise during cruise of high subsonic and supersonic commercial aircraft. The broadband character of this excitation field results in an interior noise spectrum that dominates the overall sound pressure level (SPL) and speech interference metrics in the forward and midcabins of many aircraft. In the authors' previous study, sound transmission through an aircraft fuselage, modeled by two concentric cylindrical sandwich shells and excited by a TBL statistical model was investigated analytically. An assessment of point and global structural vibration levels and resulting interior noise levels was obtained for different TBL models, flight conditions and fuselage structural designs. However, due to the complication of the shell structure, the important noise transmission mechanisms were difficult to discern. Previous experience has demonstrated that a fundamental understanding of the range of modes (or wavenumbers) generated by the TBL source both in the structure and the acoustic cavity is key to the development of both active and passive control technologies. In an initial effort to provide this insight, the objective of this paper is to develop an analytical model of sound transmission through a simple unstiffened cylindrical aluminum shell excited by a TBL pressure field. The description of the turbulent pressure field is based on the Corcos formulation for the cross-spectral density (CSD) of the pressure fluctuations. The coupled shell and interior and exterior acoustic equations are solved for the structural displacement and the interior acoustic response using a Galerkin approach to obtain analytical solutions. Specifically, this study compares the real part of the normalized CSD of the TBL excitation field, the structural displacement and the interior acoustic field. Further the modal compositions of the structural and cavity response are examined and some inference of the dominant mechanism of noise transmission is made.

Tang, Yvette Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗
NASA NTRS2020

Recent Radar Observations of the Sub-Centimeter Orbital Debris Environment

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted radar observations of the orbital debris environment since the early 1990’s to provide measurement data that supports orbital debris models and risk mitigation activities in support of NASA mission objectives. Orbital debris radar observations are a unique mode for radar operation, employing a fixed beam configuration to statistically sample the environment. An advantage of conducting operations in this fashion is that it enables observations of smaller classes of orbital debris than would otherwise be available from the same sensor operating in a traditional tracking mode. Orbital debris-mode radar observations are used to fill in the gaps, which exist in the currently available data from the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), on small size orbital debris populations that represent significant risk to NASA programs. These gaps have typically covered orbital debris with characteristic sizes less than approximately 10 cm down to approximately 3 mm in low Earth orbit (LEO) – depending upon the altitude and sensor configuration. The value of orbital debris radar measurements lies in the ability to extract partial orbital element information about orbital debris in the centimeter to several millimeter size regimes in low Earth orbit – which are not available from other measurement sources. This paper will discuss observations of this smaller class of orbital debris observed in recent years from the radars at the MIT Haystack Observatory in Westford, Massachusetts, and the Goldstone Solar System Radar near Barstow, California. The former radar is able to observe orbital debris down to approximately 5 mm, and the latter, orbital debris with characteristic sizes near 3 mm – at altitudes less than 1000 km. The characteristics and inferences about the current LEO orbital debris environment, and the different subpopulations that are identifiable in the observations are highlighted.

Kennedy, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2020

Acoustic space occupancy: Combining ecoacoustics and lidar to model biodiversity variation and detection bias across heterogeneous landscapes

There is global interest in quantifying changing biodiversity in human-modified landscapes. Ecoacoustics may offer a promising pathway for supporting multi-taxa monitoring, but its scalability has been hampered by the sonic complexity of biodiverse ecosystems and the imperfect detectability of animal-generated sounds. The acoustic signature of a habitat, or soundscape, contains information about multiple taxa and may circumvent species identification, but robust statistical technology for characterizing community-level attributes is lacking. Here, we present the Acoustic Space Occupancy Model, a flexible hierarchical framework designed to account for detection artifacts from acoustic surveys in order to model biologically relevant variation in acoustic space use among community assemblages. We illustrate its utility in a biologically and structurally diverse Amazon frontier forest landscape, a valuable test case for modeling biodiversity variation and acoustic attenuation from vegetation density. We use complementary airborne lidar data to capture aspects of 3D forest structure hypothesized to influence community composition and acoustic signal detection. Our novel analytic framework permitted us to model both the assembly and detectability of soundscapes using lidar-derived estimates of forest structure. Our empirical predictions were consistent with physical models of frequency-dependent attenuation, and we estimated that the probability of observing animal activity in the frequency channel most vulnerable to acoustic attenuation varied by over 60%, depending on vegetation density. There were also large differences in the biotic use of acoustic space predicted for intact and degraded forest habitats, with notable differences in the soundscape channels predominantly occupied by insects. This study advances the utility of ecoacoustics by providing a robust modeling framework for addressing detection bias from remote audio surveys while preserving the rich dimensionality of soundscape data, which may be critical for inferring biological patterns pertinent to multiple taxonomic groups in the tropics. Our methodology paves the way for greater integration of remotely sensed observations with high-throughput biodiversity data to help bring routine, multi-taxa monitoring to scale in dynamic and diverse landscapes.

Airborne lidar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceborne Lidar Retrievals of PM2.5 for Air Quality Studies and Applications

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) substantially contributes to air pollution and negatively affects human health. While many studies have investigated the use of passive column-integrated aerosol optical depth to infer surface PM2.5, the use of lidar observations for air quality characterization is not nearly as extensive. Lidar measurements are critical, however, due to the vertical aerosol information they provide, including near the surface. In this presentation, we first provide an overview of various lidar-based approaches for estimating PM2.5 concentrations and then discuss how lidar measurements can assist other air quality applications. For example, estimates of PM2.5 have been obtained in a physics-based approach through CALIOP near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals, assumptions on the mass extinction efficiency, and incorporating other parameters (an aerosol hygroscopic growth factor and PM2.5/PM10 ratio). Application of this algorithm over the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2006 to 2018 yielded larger PM2.5 values over the eastern and western CONUS (~10-15 μg/m³) and lower PM2.5 levels in the central CONUS (~5 μg/m³). These spatial patterns were similar to those from gridded PM2.5 concentrations obtained through in situ measurements at ground stations operated by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In another approach, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar was used with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model in a 1D ensemble-based variational technique to obtain PM2.5 over the US and Europe, and the spatial patterns of the CATS/GEOS based PM2.5 concentrations generally captured those from surface stations (with corresponding hourly EPA PM2.5 vs CATS PM2.5 statistics of R=0.4 and bias=1.5 μg/m³). In our recent work, as part of the Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group, we have applied both the CALIOP and CATS/GEOS based approaches over the highly polluted country of India during the post-monsoon season (September-October 2016). We derived elevated levels of two-month mean PM2.5 (~100 μg/m³) in northern India, especially near New Delhi. These high PM2.5 concentrations in the Indo-Gangetic plain are driven in large part from the seasonal burning of crop residue and meteorological conditions typical at this time of the year, such as low wind speeds and a shallow boundary layer. While the satellite-derived PM2.5 moderately replicates (R = ~0.7-0.9) the spatial variability in the two-month mean of surface in situ PM2.5 from monitoring sites operated by the Central and State Pollution Control Boards, we show results from specific scenes for which there are large deviations between the satellite-derived PM2.5 and in situ measurements. Other current work on this topic focuses on developing PM2.5 estimates using airborne high spectral resolution lidar measurements through machine learning regression algorithms and involves several parameters (e.g., aerosol extinction, color ratio, lidar ratio). Application of this method over major metropolitan areas in the US and Asia have resulted in high correlations (R = 0.93) with surface measurements. This airborne lidar approach can be adapted to spaceborne lidar measurements, and all three of these approaches can be applied to ESA’s EarthCARE Atmospheric Lidar instrument, setting the stage for the future Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land Atmosphere System (CALIGOLA) mission. Ultimately, beyond estimates of PM2.5, the aerosol vertical distribution from lidars can benefit studies involving passive sensor approaches for PM2.5 proxies (including from geostationary satellites), wildfire smoke plume injection heights, volcanic emissions (e.g., ash height retrievals), and aerosol/air quality model assimilation, evaluation, and forecasts.

Travis D Toth↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux as Seen from Passive Microwave Satellite Algorithms

Ocean surface turbulent fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Deriving physically-based latent and sensible heat fluxes from satellite is dependent on inferences of near surface moisture and temperature from coarser layer retrievals or satellite radiances. Uncertainties in these "retrievals" propagate through bulk aerodynamic algorithms, interacting as well with error properties of surface wind speed, also provided by satellite. By systematically evaluating an array of passive microwave satellite algorithms, the SEAFLUX project is providing improved understanding of these errors and finding pathways for reducing or eliminating them. In this study we focus on evaluating the interannual variability of several passive microwave-based estimates of latent heat flux starting from monthly mean gridded data. The algorithms considered range from those based essentially on SSM/I (e.g. HOAPS) to newer approaches that consider additional moisture information from SSM/T-2 or AMSU-B and lower tropospheric temperature data from AMSU-A. On interannual scales, variability arising from ENSO events and time-lagged responses of ocean turbulent and radiative fluxes in other ocean basins (as well as the extratropical Pacific) is widely recognized, but still not well quantified. Locally, these flux anomalies are of order 10-20 W/sq m and present a relevant "target" with which to verify algorithm performance in a climate context. On decadal time scales there is some evidence from reanalyses and remotely-sensed fluxes alike that tropical ocean-averaged latent heat fluxes have increased 5-10 W/sq m since the early 1990s. However, significant uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Our work addresses the origin of these uncertainties and provides statistics on time series of tropical ocean averages, regional space / time correlation analysis, and separation of contributions by variations in wind and near surface humidity deficit. Comparison to variations in reanalysis data sets is also provided for reference.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗