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DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution x-ray spectrometer for x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy

Two extended x-ray absorption fine structure flat crystal x-ray spectrometers (EFX’s) were designed and built for high-resolution x-ray spectroscopy over a large energy range with flexible, on-shot energy dispersion calibration capabilities. The EFX uses a flat silicon [111] crystal in the reflection geometry as the energy dispersive optic covering the energy range of 6.3–11.4 keV and achieving a spectral resolution of 4.5 eV with a source size of 50 μm at 7.2 keV. A shot-to-shot configurable calibration filter pack and Bayesian inference routine were used to constrain the energy dispersion relation to within ±3 eV. The EFX was primarily designed for x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy and provides significant improvement to the Laboratory for Laser Energetics’ OMEGA-60 XAFS experimental platform. The EFX is capable of performing extended XAFS measurements of multiple absorption edges simultaneously on metal alloys and x-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy to measure the electron structure of compressed 3d transition metals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring the giant radio galaxy length distribution with the LoTSS

Many massive galaxies launch jets from the accretion disk of their central black hole, but only ~10 3 instances are known in which the associated outflows form giant radio galaxies (GRGs, or giants): luminous structures of megaparsec extent that consist of atomic nuclei, relativistic electrons, and magnetic fields. Large samples are imperative to understanding the enigmatic growth of giants, and recent systematic searches in homogeneous surveys constitute a promising development. For the first time, it is possible to perform meaningful precision statistics with GRG lengths, but a framework to do so is missing. We measured the intrinsic GRG length distribution by combining a novel statistical framework with a LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) sample of freshly discovered giants. In turn, this allowed us to answer an array of questions on giants. For example, we can now assess how rare a 5 Mpc giant is compared with one of 1 Mpc, and how much larger – given a projected length – the corresponding intrinsic length is expected to be. Notably, we can now also infer the GRG number density in the Local Universe. We assumed the intrinsic GRG length distribution to be Paretian (i.e. of power-law form) with tail index ξ, and predicted the observed distribution by modelling projection and selection effects. To infer ξ, we also systematically searched the LoTSS for hitherto unknown giants and compiled the largest catalogue of giants to date. We show that if intrinsic GRG lengths are Pareto distributed with index ξ, then projected GRG lengths are also Pareto distributed with index ξ. Selection effects induce curvature in the observed projected GRG length distribution: angular length selection flattens it towards the lower end, while surface brightness selection steepens it towards the higher end. We explicitly derived a GRG’s posterior over intrinsic lengths given its projected length, laying bare the ξ dependence. We also discovered 2060 giants within LoTSS DR2 pipeline products; our sample more than doubles the known population. Spectacular discoveries include the largest, second-largest, and fourth-largest GRG known (l p = 5.1 Mpc, l p = 5.0 Mpc, and l p = 4.8 Mpc), the largest GRG known hosted by a spiral galaxy (l p = 2.5 Mpc), and the largest secure GRG known beyond redshift 1 (l p = 3.9 Mpc). We increase the number of known giants whose angular length exceeds that of the Moon from 10 to 23; among the discoveries is the angularly largest known radio galaxy in the Northern Sky, which is also the angularly largest known GRG ($\phi$ = 2°). Combining theory and data, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution, and measured the index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5. This implies that, given its projected length, a GRG’s intrinsic length is expected to be just 15% larger. Finally, we determined the comoving number density of giants in the Local Universe to be n GRG = 5 ± 2(100 Mpc) –3 . We developed a practical mathematical framework that elucidates the statistics of giant radio galaxy lengths. Through a LoTSS search, we also discovered 2060 new giants. By combining both advances, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution with index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5, and that giants are truly rare in a cosmological sense: most clusters and filaments of the Cosmic Web are not currently home to a giant. Thus, our work yields new observational constraints for analytical models and simulations featuring radio galaxy growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A measurement of stellar surface gravity hidden in radial velocity differences of comoving stars

The gravitational redshift induced by stellar surface gravity is notoriously difficult to measure for non-degenerate stars, since its amplitude is small in comparison with the typical Doppler shift induced by stellar radial velocity. In this study, we make use of the large observational data set of the Gaia mission to achieve a significant reduction of noise caused by these random stellar motions. By measuring the differences in velocities between the components of the pairs of comoving stars and wide binaries, in this work we are able to statistically measure the combined effects of gravitational redshift and convective blueshifting of spectral lines, and nullify the effect of the peculiar motions of the stars. For the subset of stars considered in this study, we find a positive correlation between the observed differences in Gaia radial velocities and the differences in surface gravity and convective blueshift inferred from effective temperature and luminosity measurements. The results rule out a null signal at the 5σ level for our full data set. Additionally, we study the subdominant effects of binary motion, and possible systematic errors in radial velocity measurements within Gaia. Results from the technique presented in this study are expected to improve significantly with data from the next Gaia data release. Such improvements could be used to constrain the mass–luminosity relation and stellar models that predict the magnitude of convective blueshift.

(stars:) binaries: general↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elastic nucleon-pion scattering at m π = 200 MeV from lattice QCD

Elastic nucleon-pion scattering amplitudes are computed using lattice QCD on a single ensemble of gauge field configurations with N f = 2 + 1 dynamical quark flavors and m π = 200 MeV. The s-wave scattering lengths with both total isospins I = 1/2 and I = 3/2 are inferred from the finite-volume spectrum below the inelastic threshold together with the I = 3/2 p-wave containing the Δ(1232) resonance. The amplitudes are well-described by the effective range expansion with parameters constrained by fits to the finite-volume energy levels, enabling a determination of the I = 3/2 scattering length with statistical errors below 5%, while the I = 1/2 scattering length is somewhat less precisely evaluated. Systematic errors due to excited states and the influence of higher partial waves are controlled, providing a step toward future computations down to physical light quark masses with multiple lattice spacings and volumes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Source Levels of In‐Cloud Air in Shallow Cumulus: Consistency Between Paluch Diagram and Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Abstract The Paluch diagram is a widely used tool for interpreting aircraft measurements of shallow cumulus clouds. A prior study conducted by Heus et al. (2008,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2572.1) concluded that the source levels of in‐cloud air inferred from the Paluch diagram exhibit biases, sometimes of several hundred meters, in comparison to those derived from Lagrangian particle tracking. In this short study we revisit this comparison. The results indicate that the upper source levels of in‐cloud air determined from the Lagrangian Particle Tracking and the Paluch diagram are consistent, and the choice of statistical methods is crucial. The significance of this research lies in confirming the reliability of the Paluch analysis, enabling its confident application to aircraft data.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stringent σ8 constraints from small-scale galaxy clustering using a hybrid MCMC + emulator framework

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based hybrid emulator approach that maximally derives cosmological and Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) information from non-linear galaxy clustering, with sufficient precision for DESI Year 1 (Y1) analysis. Our hybrid approach first samples the HOD space on a fixed cosmological simulation grid to constrain the high-likelihood region of cosmology + HOD parameter space, and then constructs the emulator within this constrained region. This approach significantly reduces the parameter volume emulated over, thus achieving much smaller emulator errors with fixed number of training points. We demonstrate that this combined with state-of-the-art simulations result in tight emulator errors comparable to expected DESI Y1 LRG sample variance. We leverage the new abacussummit simulations and apply our hybrid approach to CMASS non-linear galaxy clustering data. We infer constraints on σ8 = 0.762 ± 0.024 and fσ8(zeff = 0.52) = 0.444 ± 0.016, the tightest among contemporary galaxy clustering studies. We also demonstrate that our fσ8 constraint is robust against secondary biases and other HOD model choices, a critical first step towards showcasing the robust cosmology information accessible in non-linear scales. We speculate that the additional statistical power of DESI Y1 should tighten the growth rate constraints by at least another 50–60 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, significantly elucidating any potential tension with Planck. We also address the ‘lensing is low’ tension, which we find to be in the same direction as a potential tension in fσ8. We show that the combined effect of a lower fσ8 and environment-based bias accounts for approximately $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the discrepancy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multi-year short-range hindcast experiment with CESM1 for evaluating climate model moist processes from diurnal to interannual timescales

Abstract. We present a multi-year short-range hindcast experiment and its experimental design for better evaluation of both the mean state and variability of atmospheric moist processes in climate models from diurnal to interannual timescales and facilitate model development. We used the Community Earth System Model version 1 as the base model and performed a suite of 3 d hindcasts initialized every day starting at 00:00 Z from 1997 to 2012. Three processes – the diurnal cycle of clouds during different cloud regimes over the central US, precipitation and diabatic heating associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the response of precipitation, surface radiative and heat fluxes, as well as zonal wind stress to sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – are evaluated as examples to demonstrate how one can better utilize simulations from this experiment to gain insights into model errors and their connection to physical parameterizations or large-scale state. This is achieved by comparing the hindcasts with corresponding long-term observations for periods based on different phenomena. These analyses can only be done through this multi-year hindcast approach to establish robust statistics of the processes under well-controlled large-scale environment because these phenomena are either a result of interannual climate variability or only happen a few times in a given year (e.g., MJO, or cloud regime types). Furthermore, comparison of hindcasts to the typical simulations in climate mode with the same model allows one to infer what portion of a model's climate error directly comes from fast errors in the parameterizations of moist processes. As demonstrated here, model biases in the mean state and variability associated with parameterized moist processes usually develop within a few days and manifest within weeks to affect the simulations of large-scale circulation and ultimately the climate mean state and variability. Therefore, model developers can achieve additional useful understanding of the underlying problems in model physics by conducting a multi-year hindcast experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring dark matter substructure with astrometric lensing beyond the power spectrum

Abstract Astrometry—the precise measurement of positions and motions of celestial objects—has emerged as a promising avenue for characterizing the dark matter population in our Galaxy. By leveraging recent advances in simulation-based inference and neural network architectures, we introduce a novel method to search for global dark matter-induced gravitational lensing signatures in astrometric datasets. Our method based on neural likelihood-ratio estimation shows significantly enhanced sensitivity to a cold dark matter population and more favorable scaling with measurement noise compared to existing approaches based on two-point correlation statistics. We demonstrate the real-world viability of our method by showing it to be robust to non-trivial modeled as well as unmodeled noise features expected in astrometric measurements. This establishes machine learning as a powerful tool for characterizing dark matter using astrometric data.

convolutional neural networks (1938)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of the Polarization Beam Response of SPT-3G Using Point Sources

Precise measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization require rigorous control of instrumental systematics. For the South Pole Telescope's third-generation camera (SPT-3G), which observes in three bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz, accurate beam characterization is critical for interpreting the polarized mm-wave sky. We present direct measurements of SPT-3G's polarized beam response from observations of 100 bright extragalactic point sources. Previous SPT-3G power spectrum analyses introduced a phenomenological parameter, $β_{\rm pol}$, to describe the polarization preserved in beam sidelobes, and found evidence for significant depolarization from the requirement of inter-frequency polarization power spectrum consistency. Our direct measurements yield $β_{\rm pol}=0.89\pm0.10$ at 95 GHz, $1.08\pm0.10$ at 150 GHz, and $0.90\pm0.22$ at 220 GHz, indicating minimal sidelobe depolarization. We validate these results with systematic tests of posterior sampling versus bootstrap resampling, real-space versus Fourier-space analysis, temperature-to-polarization leakage handling, covariance determination, and source selection. Compared to values inferred from previous cosmological analyses, our results differ by an effective $1.3σ$. This apparent discrepancy is model dependent, because the point source analysis derives much of its $β_{\rm pol}$ constraining power from higher multipoles than the power spectrum analysis. These measurements therefore admit three explanations for the frequency-dependent residuals observed in the power spectrum analysis: a statistical fluctuation, the need for more sophisticated polarized beam models, or systematics other than beam depolarization.

de Haan, T. [KEK, Tsukuba]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Inference for Integrating Yarrowia lipolytica Multiomics Datasets with Metabolic Modeling

Optimizing the metabolism of microbial cell factories for yields and titers is a critical step for economically viable production of bioproducts and biofuels. In this process, tuning the expression of individual enzymes to obtain the desired pathway flux is a challenging step, in which data from separate multiomics techniques must be integrated with existing biological knowledge to determine where changes should be made. Following a design-build-test-learn strategy, building on recent advances in Bayesian metabolic control analysis, we identify in this work key enzymes in the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica that correlate with the production of itaconate by integrating a metabolic model with multiomics measurements. To this extent, we quantify the uncertainty for a variety of key parameters, known as flux control coefficients (FCCs), needed to improve the bioproduction of target metabolites and statistically obtain key correlations between the measured enzymes and boundary flux. Based on the top five significant FCCs and five correlated enzymes, our results show phosphoglycerate mutase, acetyl-CoA synthetase (ACSm), carbonic anhydrase (HCO3E), pyrophosphatase (PPAm), and homoserine dehydrogenase (HSDxi) enzymes in rate-limiting reactions that can lead to increased itaconic acid production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative radiography for determining density fluctuations in HED experiments

We have developed a method to extract density fluctuation measurements from x-ray radiographs of high-energy density (HED) instability growth and turbulence experiments. We use this information to calculate density fluctuation statistics for constraining the performance of turbulent mix models in HED systems. The density calculation combines image filtering, removal of systemic effects such as backlighter variation, calculation of transmission across multiple materials, and use of tracer materials to generate an approximate single-material density field. From the density map, we calculate both average density and a variance-like moment b (density-specific-volume covariance), which we compare to our models. We infer both quantities from a single image, which is significantly more information than the historic single scalar mix width measurements. We also develop a method of analyzing simulation outputs that incorporate both the density fluctuation metric from a turbulence model and the bulk material maps from the hydrodynamic code. This analysis helps address the question of how to initialize the simulations for best comparison to data from systems with large separations of scale in the mixing perturbation initial condition. We find that our data analysis method yields 1D average density and b curves with similar morphology and amplitudes as those from preliminary simulation comparisons.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling neutrino-induced scale-dependent galaxy clustering for photometric galaxy surveys

Abstract The increasing statistical precision of photometric redshift surveys requires improved accuracy of theoretical predictions for large-scale structure observables to obtain unbiased cosmological constraints. In ΛCDM cosmologies, massive neutrinos stream freely at small cosmological scales, suppressing the small-scale power spectrum. In massive neutrino cosmologies, galaxy bias modeling needs to accurately relate the scale-dependent growth of the underlying matter field to observed galaxy clustering statistics. In this work, we implement a computationally efficient approximation of the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias (NISDB). Through simulated likelihood analyses of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DESY3) and Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1 (LSSTY1) synthetic data that contain an appreciable NISDB, we examine the impact of linear galaxy bias and neutrino mass modeling choices on cosmological parameter inference. We find model misspecification of the NISDB approximation and neutrino mass models to decrease the constraining power of photometric galaxy surveys and cause parameter biases in the cosmological interpretation of future surveys. We quantify these biases and devise mitigation strategies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗