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DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Absolute Higgs Couplings using Vector Boson Fusion H to WW with FCC-hh

The absolute normalisation scale of Higgs couplings is difficult to determine in hadron colliders. An experimentally and theoretically clean way to establish the coupling scale is to measure the ratio of resonant Vector Boson Fusion $H \rightarrow WW^{*}$ production to non-resonant $qq \rightarrow qqWW$ because both the theoretical and detector response systematics all cancel to first order in the ratio. To set the scale of the sensitivity, a simple selection and fit is presented with gives a 1.8\% (1.9\%) statistical uncertainty on the ratio for a 100 (84) TeV FCC-hh at 30\,ab$^{-1}$, which would give a corresponding uncertainty on the $\kappa$ scale of 0.5-1\% depending on systematic effects and potential impacts of more sophisticated analysis.

Lipeles, Elliot [University of Pennsylvania] (ORCI↗

DOE OSTI2017

xLPR Post-Processing Documentation

The outputs available in the xLPR Version 2.0 code can be analyzed using statistical techniques that have been developed to compare sampling scheme selection, identify inputs for importance sampling, and assess result convergence and uncertainty. These techniques were developed and piloted for both the xLPR Scenario Analysis (SA) Report and the xLPR Sensitivity Analysis Template. This document provides a walk-through of the post-processing R code that was used to generate the results and figures presented in these documents. This page intentionally left blank.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

China Green Low-Carbon City Index

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

China Green Low-Carbon City Index: Report on the Performance of 100+ Cities (2010-2015)

The main purpose of the new China Green Low-Carbon City Index (CGLCI, or City Index ) is to evaluate the status of green and low-carbon development for a large number of Chinese cities. Chinese cities are formulating plans and implementing programs to address national initiatives, especially the national low-carbon pilot program for 36 cities and six provinces. However, there is not yet an established framework for measuring, reporting, or evaluating low-carbon progress across Chinese cities, despite the development of a number of Chinese and international city indicator systems. The new China City Index highlights energy use and carbon emissions of Chinese cities, along with environmental and socio-economic indicators. We selected metrics (indicators) that have data available in China’s statistical system, are commonly used internationally, and reflect Chinese policy goals. (See Table ES-1.) We then benchmarked and ranked Chinese cities in terms of their status and progress, identified potential areas for improvement, and identified top-runners. By “low-carbon” we mean reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), with a focus on energy-related CO 2 . The term “carbon” is used as short-hand for these GHGs throughout the report. By “green” we recognize multiple environmental parameters related to urbanization and climate change: air quality, water use, solid waste, transport networks, and urban green space. In early 2017, China expanded its low-carbon pilot cities program, adding 45 more cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Late-onset Circumstellar Medium Interactions are Rare: An Unbiased GALEX View of Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Using ultraviolet (UV) light curves, we constrain the circumstellar environments of 1080 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) within z < 0.5 from archival Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) observations. All SNe Ia are required to have pre- and post-explosion GALEX observations to ensure adequate subtraction of the host-galaxy flux. Using the late-time GALEX observations, we look for the UV excess expected from any interaction between the SN ejecta and circumstellar material (CSM). Four SNe Ia are detected near maximum light, and we compare the GALEX photometry to archival data. However, we find that none of our targets show convincing evidence of CSM interaction. A recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) survey estimates that ∼6% of SNe Ia may interact with distant CSM, but statistical inferences are complicated by the small sample size and selection effects. By injecting model light curves into our data and then recovering them, we constrain a broad range of CSM interactions based on the CSM interaction start time and the maximum luminosity. Combining our GALEX nondetections with the HST results, we constrain occurrence of late-onset CSM interaction among SNe Ia with moderate CSM interaction, similar to that observed in PTF11kx, to f CSM ≲ 5.1% between 0 and 500 days after discovery and ≲2.7% between 500 and 1000 days after discovery at 90% confidence. For weaker CSM interactions similar to SN 2015cp, we obtain limits of ≲16% and ≲4.8%, respectively, for the same time ranges.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXIX. The Near-infrared View of the Broad-line Region (BLR): The Effects of Obscuration in BLR Characterization

Virial black hole (BH) mass (M BH ) determination directly involves knowing the broad-line region (BLR) clouds' velocity distribution, their distance from the central supermassive BH (R BLR ), and the virial factor (f). Understanding whether biases arise in M BH estimation with increasing obscuration is possible only by studying a large (N > 100) statistical sample of obscuration-unbiased (hard) X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the rest-frame near-infrared (0.8–2.5 μm) since it penetrates deeper into the BLR than the optical. We present a detailed analysis of 65 local Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) selected Seyfert galaxies observed with Magellan/FIRE. Adding these to the near-infrared BAT AGN spectroscopic survey database, we study a total of 314 unique near-infrared spectra. While the FWHMs of Hα and near-infrared broad lines (He i, Paβ, Paα) remain unbiased to either BLR extinction or X-ray obscuration, the Hα broad-line luminosity is suppressed when N H ≳ 10 21 cm –2 , systematically underestimating M BH by 0.23–0.46 dex. Near-infrared line luminosities should be preferred to Hα until N H < 10 22 cm –2 , while at higher obscuration a less-biased R BLR proxy should be adopted. We estimate f for Seyfert 1 and 2 using two obscuration-unbiased M BH measurements, i.e., the stellar velocity dispersion and a BH mass prescription based on near-infrared and X-ray, and find that the virial factors do not depend on the redshift or obscuration, but some broad lines show a mild anticorrelation with M BH . Furthermore, our results show the critical impact obscuration can have on BLR characterization and the importance of the near-infrared and X-rays for a less-biased view of the BLR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

First Constraints on Growth Rate from Redshift-space Ellipticity Correlations of SDSS Galaxies at 0.16 < z < 0.70

We report the first constraints on the growth rate of the universe, f(z)σ 8 (z), with intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies. We measure the galaxy density-intrinsic ellipticity cross-correlation and intrinsic ellipticity autocorrelation functions over 0.16 < z < 0.7 from luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and LOWZ and CMASS galaxy samples in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and SDSS-III BOSS survey. We detect clear anisotropic signals of IA due to redshift-space distortions. By combining measured IA statistics with the conventional galaxy clustering statistics, we obtain tighter constraints on the growth rate. The improvement is particularly prominent for the LRG, which is the brightest galaxy sample and known to be strongly aligned with underlying dark matter distribution; using the measurements on scales above 10 h -1 Mpc, we obtain $f{\sigma }_{8}={0.5196}_{-0.0354}^{+0.0352}$ (68% confidence level) from the clustering-only analysis and $f{\sigma }_{8}={0.5322}_{-0.0291}^{+0.0293}$ with clustering and IA, meaning 19% improvement. The constraint is in good agreement with the prediction of general relativity, f σ 8 = 0.4937 at z = 0.34. For LOWZ and CMASS samples, the improvement of constraints on f σ 8 is found to be 10% and 3.5%, respectively. Our results indicate that the contribution from IA statistics for cosmological constraints can be further enhanced by carefully selecting galaxies for a shape sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Anisotropies in the interplanetary intensity of solar protons E sub p 0.3 MeV

From the data on solar protons with energy 0.3 MeV obtained by Explorer 35 since July 1967, ten events were selected for the study of intensity vs time and of angular distributions of intensity in interplanetary space near the earth. The bases of selection were that the events be of adequate intensity for statistically satisfactory study and that they be attributable to a single solar flare so that their time histories were not complicated by overlapping emissions of particles. The principal findings for these events are presented.

Innanen, W. G.↗

NASA NTRS1973

An experimental study of the temporal statistics of radio signals scattered by rain

A fixed-beam bistatic CW experiment designed to measure the temporal statistics of the volume reflectivity produced by hydrometeors at several selected altitudes, scattering angles, and at two frequencies (3.6 and 7.8 GHz) is described. Surface rain gauge data, local meteorological data, surveillance S-band radar, and great-circle path propagation measurements were also made to describe the general weather and propagation conditions and to distinguish precipitation scatter signals from those caused by ducting and other nonhydrometeor scatter mechanisms. The data analysis procedures were designed to provide an assessment of a one-year sample of data with a time resolution of one minute. The cumulative distributions of the bistatic signals for all of the rainy minutes during this period are presented for the several path geometries.

Hubbard, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Predicting Solar Deficits

Statistical method uses available long term solar irradiance data at selected sites in United States to predict probable deviations from long term monthly averages. Technique useful in sizing solar collectors and backup storage systems to cover solar deficits.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A comparison of Landsat point and rectangular field training sets for land-use classification

Rectangular training fields of homogeneous spectroreflectance are commonly used in supervised pattern recognition efforts. Trial image classification with manually selected training sets gives irregular and misleading results due to statistical bias. A self-verifying, grid-sampled training point approach is proposed as a more statistically valid feature extraction technique. A systematic pixel sampling network of every ninth row and ninth column efficiently replaced the full image scene with smaller statistical vectors which preserved the necessary characteristics for classification. The composite second- and third-order average classification accuracy of 50.1 percent for 331,776 pixels in the full image substantially agreed with the 51 percent value predicted by the grid-sampled, 4,100-point training set.

Tom, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Tubular copper thrust chamber design study

The use of copper tubular thrust chambers is particularly important in high performance expander cycle space engines. Tubular chambers have more surface area than flat wall chambers, and this extra surface area provides enhanced heat transfer for additional energy to power the cycle. This paper was divided into two sections: (1) a thermal analysis and sensitivity study; and (2) a preliminary design of a selected thrust chamber configuration. The thermal analysis consisted of a statistical optimization to determine the optimum tube geometry, tube booking, thrust chamber geometry, and cooling routing to achieve the maximum upper limit chamber pressure for a 25,000 pound thrust engine. The preliminary design effort produced a layout drawing of a tubular thrust chamber that is three inches shorter than the Advanced Expander Test Bed (AETB) milled channel chamber but is predicted to provide a five percent increase in heat transfer. Testing this chamber in the AETB would confirm the inherent advantages of tubular chamber construction and heat transfer.

Masters, A. I.↗

NASA NTRS1992

BATSE analysis techniques for probing the GRB spatial and luminosity distributions

The Burst And Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) has measured homogeneity and isotropy parameters from an increasingly large sample of observed gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), while also maintaining a summary of the way in which the sky has been sampled. Measurement of both of these are necessary for any study of the BATSE data statistically, as they take into account the most serious observational selection effects known in the study of GRBs: beam-smearing and inhomogeneous, anisotropic sky sampling. Knowledge of these effects is important to analysis of GRB angular and intensity distributions. In addition to determining that the bursts are local, it is hoped that analysis of such distributions will allow boundaries to be placed on the true GRB spatial distribution and luminosity function. The technique for studying GRB spatial and luminosity distributions is direct. Results of BATSE analyses are compared to Monte Carlo models parameterized by a variety of spatial and luminosity characteristics.

Hakkila, Jon↗

NASA NTRS2002

Estimates Of The Orbiter RSI Thermal Protection System Thermal Reliability

In support of the Space Shuttle Orbiter post-flight inspection, structure temperatures are recorded at selected positions on the windward, leeward, starboard and port surfaces. Statistical analysis of this flight data and a non-dimensional load interference (NDLI) method are used to estimate the thermal reliability at positions were reusable surface insulation (RSI) is installed. In this analysis, structure temperatures that exceed the design limit define the critical failure mode. At thirty-three positions the RSI thermal reliability is greater than 0.999999 for the missions studied. This is not the overall system level reliability of the thermal protection system installed on an Orbiter. The results from two Orbiters, OV-102 and OV-105, are in good agreement. The original RSI designs on the OV-102 Orbital Maneuvering System pods, which had low reliability, were significantly improved on OV-105. The NDLI method was also used to estimate thermal reliability from an assessment of TPS uncertainties that was completed shortly before the first Orbiter flight. Results fiom the flight data analysis and the pre-flight assessment agree at several positions near each other. The NDLI method is also effective for optimizing RSI designs to provide uniform thermal reliability on the acreage surface of reusable launch vehicles.

Kolodziej, P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Abnormal grain growth driven by high-temperature proton irradiation in nanocrystalline Ni

In this research we examine a nanocrystalline Ni thin film exposed to high-temperature proton irradiation and compare it with as-deposited and annealed-only counterparts. Despite lacking thermal spikes typical of heavy ions, 400 °C proton irradiation drives pronounced grain growth in select grains, whereas annealing alone yields only modest coarsening. Grain-boundary statistics show fewer low-angle boundaries (10–20°) and more high-angle boundaries (55–60°), consistent with irradiation-enhanced mobility of high-misorientation boundaries. The irradiated films retain a random texture, with no evidence of texture development or sharpening. Mechanisms, such as radiation-enhanced grain boundary diffusion, beam-induced heating, and ion channeling-mediated selective grain growth, are unlikely to be the predominant drivers to explain the resultant microstructure. Instead, we suggest irradiation-induced modifications of grain-boundary structure, including possible complexion transitions, as one plausible explanation for this selective grain growth and retention of random texture. However, additional temperature–dose studies are required to confirm the mechanism.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Dissolution of Fe in HCl from the Ilmenite Concentrate; Evaluating the Effect of Operating Parameters and Mutual Interactions

Selective HCl dissolution of ilmenite components for obtaining Ti or titanium dioxide (TiO{sub 2}) has been highly recognized due to its advantages, greater environmental friendliness, and simplicity, compared to H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} and Cl{sub 2} methods. The effect of numerous parameters has been studied with the one-factor-at-a-time method. The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of key operation parameters, such as acid-to-solid ratio (A/S: 5 to 20 mL/g), reaction temperature (T: 70 °C to 100 °C), and acid concentration (A pct: 15 to 30 wt pct), on the dissolution of Fe in HCl solution with the minimum Ti losses to the leachate from its abundant, domestic, and low-cost mineral source (Kahnooj ilmenite concentrate) using central composite design–response surface methodology. After 90 minutes of leaching, the Ti/Fe (pct) in terms of dissolved amounts was selected as the process assessment response function. Based on the conducted experimental and statistical analysis, increasing the levels of parameters in the studied domain leads to an increase in Ti/Fe (pct), in the order of A pct > T > A/S. Two statistically significant mutual interactions between A/S-T and T-A pct, with 95 pct confidence level, were revealed for the first time in this study. The optimization strategy was set to the minimization of Ti/Fe (pct) by considering the objective of study and the selected response function. The A/S, T, and A pct were determined to be 5 mL/g, 70 °C, and 15 pct, respectively, for maximum impurity dissolution and minimum Ti loss to the leachate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Multivariate normality

Sets of experimentally determined or routinely observed data provide information about the past, present and, hopefully, future sets of similarly produced data. An infinite set of statistical models exists which may be used to describe the data sets. The normal distribution is one model. If it serves at all, it serves well. If a data set, or a transformation of the set, representative of a larger population can be described by the normal distribution, then valid statistical inferences can be drawn. There are several tests which may be applied to a data set to determine whether the univariate normal model adequately describes the set. The chi-square test based on Pearson's work in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is often used. Like all tests, it has some weaknesses which are discussed in elementary texts. Extension of the chi-square test to the multivariate normal model is provided. Tables and graphs permit easier application of the test in the higher dimensions. Several examples, using recorded data, illustrate the procedures. Tests of maximum absolute differences, mean sum of squares of residuals, runs and changes of sign are included in these tests. Dimensions one through five with selected sample sizes 11 to 101 are used to illustrate the statistical tests developed.

Crutcher, H. L.↗