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At least 379 records · Page 21

Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products

Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) pr↗

The western Mediterranean Sea: An area for a regional validation for TOPEX/Poseidon and a field for geophysical and oceanographic studies

The research project has two kinds of objectives. The first is focused on the regional validation of the altimeter, orbit, and mean sea surface; it will be performed in close cooperation with the local validation performed at Lampedusa/Lampione (Italy). The second deals with the geophysical and oceanographic research of interest in this area.

Barlier, Francois↗

A Surrogate Approach to the Experimental Optimization of Multielement Airfoils

The incorporation of experimental test data into the optimization process is accomplished through the use of Bayesian-validated surrogates. In the surrogate approach, a surrogate for the experiment (e.g., a response surface) serves in the optimization process. The validation step of the framework provides a qualitative assessment of the surrogate quality, and bounds the surrogate-for-experiment error on designs "near" surrogate-predicted optimal designs. The utility of the framework is demonstrated through its application to the experimental selection of the trailing edge ap position to achieve a design lift coefficient for a three-element airfoil.

Otto, John C.↗

Comparison of Satellite, Thermochron and Air Temperatures at Summit, Greenland, During the Winter of 2008/09

Current trends show rise in Arctic surface and air temperatures, including over the Greenland ice sheet where rising temperatures will contribute to increased sea-level rise through increased melt. We aim to establish the uncertainties in using satellite-derived surface temperature for measuring Arctic surface temperature, as satellite data are increasingly being used to assess temperature trends. To accomplish this, satellite-derived surface temperature, or land-surface temperature (LST), must be validated and limitations of the satellite data must he assessed quantitatively. During the 2008/09 boreal winter at Summit, Greenland, we employed data from standard US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air-temperature instruments, button-sized temperature sensors called thermochrons and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument to (1) assess the accuracy and utility of thermochrons in an ice-sheet environment and (2) compare MODIS-derived LSTs with thermochron-derived surface and air temperatures. The thermochron-derived air temperatures were very accurate, within 0.1+/-0.3 C of the NOAA-derived air temperature, but thermochron-derived surface temperatures were approx. 3 C higher than MODIS-derived LSTs. Though the surface temperature is largely determined by air temperature, these variables can differ significantly. Furthermore, we show that the winter-time mean air temperature, adjusted to surface temperature was approx. 11 C higher than the winter-time mean MODIS-derived LST. This marked difference occurs largely because of satellite-derived LSTs cannot be measured through cloud cover, so caution must be exercised in using time series of satellite LST data to study seasonal temperature trends.

Koenig, Lora S.↗

Identification and Study of Validation Level Test Cases for Computational Modeling of Non-Charring Ablators

Computational modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, used for aerospace applications, provides numerous advantages in preliminary selection and design of a heatshield material and shape for atmospheric entry vehicles. However, to serve as a reliable tool for prediction of material thermal and ablative behavior, the modeling approach needs to be validated against real experimental and flight data, preferably at a range of applied conditions. The validation study is typically very complex as it requires reliable measured data not only for the material thermal response and surface recession, but also well characterized environmental conditions. The validation problem becomes even more complex when the material thermal response is dictated by multi-physics effects such as solid conduction, in-depth thermal decomposition, pyrolysis gas flow and chemical reactions. The multi-physics effects complicate not only the modeling effort, but also the experimental measurement for validation of various aspects of the highly coupled problem. In this study, an attempt is made to identify suitable experimental data that could serve as a source for validation of material thermal response modeling tools. To reduce the computational complexity, this study focuses only on non-charring ablators, where the material thermal response could be modeled with a single governing equation for solid conduction and the ablation is limited only to the surface of the material. With a well characterized and publicly available experimental data being sparse, the study is limited in presenting test cases for only three materials: camphor, graphite and FiberForm® in the sequence of increased modeling complexity. Graphite is a commonly used TPS material for aerospace applications, both for leading edges of high-speed vehicles and internal insulation of solid rocket motors. FiberForm® is a porous carbon pre-form used in preparation of the well known PICA material Tran et al. [1996]. Inclusion of camphor into the list is conditioned with the relative simplicity in modeling the material thermal and chemical response and the low-enthalpy flow environment. In addition, camphor has been used as a simple test material for study of flow transition behavior by Stock and Ginoux [1973] and assessment of a heatshield shape change at flight relevant conditions by Rotondi et al. [2022]. In this work, the identified experimental data was extracted from the public literature and test cases that yet have been published. As it was found from the review, not a single test case contains an exhaustive set of data that would validate every aspect of the material physics. However, in the data collected, various aspects of the material behavior can be still validated, such as surface and in-depth temperature, amount of recession and a shape change. The identified experimental data for each case is accompanied with a characterized flow environment and simulated boundary conditions predicted by a Data-Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code Wright et al. [1998]. In addition, material thermal response numerical simulations in each test case are performed with Kentucky Aerothermodynamics and Thermal Response System (KATS-MR) Zibitsker et al. [2022] providing a comparative study and a sanity check for the proposed validation data. Sample results from the performed numerical study are shown below. Figure 1 shows distribution of surface heat flux and pressure values on a hemi-cylinder model made of FiberForm® and tested in HyMETS arc-jet facility. The results are shown for the high pressure condition among the two tests. Flow simulation was performed with DPLR code on a quarter of original geometry. In the figure, the quarter shape was mirrored across zx and xy planes to show the complete distribution. Figure 2 shows the material response results for the high pressure case (7500 Pa), simulated with KATS-MR and a comparison to the experimental data for the surface temperature and shape shape. The simulation was performed on a 2-D slice, extracted in the xy plane at the middle of the sample. Figure 3 shows the material response simulation for the low pressure case (3500 Pa) and a comparison to the experimental data for surface temperature and shape change.

ablation↗

Modeling of transition and surface roughness effects in boundary-layer flows

Experiments were carried out to examine the influence of three-dimensional, stochastic roughness on the growth of incompressible turbulent boundary layers, as well as the effect of streamwise pressure gradients and freestream turbulence intensity on smooth-wall boundary-layer transition. The modeling of these effects in a two-dimensional boundary-layer computation program was examined with the help of the experiments. A model for surface roughness was developed that relates directly measurable statistical parameters quantifying the roughness geometry to the aerodynamic effects. This model should be valid for a limited class of surfaces found on turbomachinery blading and in other engineering applications. Commonly used criteria for the transition onset performed poorly and presumably need to be modified to account for other factors influencing the process.

Feiereisen, W. J.↗

Retrieval with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer and Validation during JAIVEx

A state-of-the-art IR-only retrieval algorithm has been developed with an all-season-global EOF Physical Regression and followed by 1-D Var. Physical Iterative Retrieval for IASI, AIRS, and NAST-I. The benefits of this retrieval are to produce atmospheric structure with a single FOV horizontal resolution (approx. 15 km for IASI and AIRS), accurate profiles above the cloud (at least) or down to the surface, surface parameters, and/or cloud microphysical parameters. Initial case study and validation indicates that surface, cloud, and atmospheric structure (include TBL) are well captured by IASI and AIRS measurements. Coincident dropsondes during the IASI and AIRS overpasses are used to validate atmospheric conditions, and accurate retrievals are obtained with an expected vertical resolution. JAIVEx has provided the data needed to validate the retrieval algorithm and its products which allows us to assess the instrument ability and/or performance. Retrievals with global coverage are under investigation for detailed retrieval assessment. It is greatly desired that these products be used for testing the impact on Atmospheric Data Assimilation and/or Numerical Weather Prediction.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

Development of HELIOS/BIPR/PARCS/MCNP6 Computation Route for WWER RPV Neutron Fluence Analysis and Validation Against Ex-Vessel Detector Measurement Data

Here, a computational route was developed for precise calculation of fast neutron fluence on a WWER-type reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The method is based on the transfer of neutronics data from HELIOS-2 lattice calculations and nodal diffusion neutronics data (power, density, and temperature) from BIPR7.1 and PARCS 3.36/PATHS core calculations into a three-dimensional (pinwise axially distributed) fixed neutron source for modeling of transport of fast neutrons from the reactor core to the outer surface of the RPV using MCNP6.2. Validation of the proposed computational method was carried out based on comparative analysis of MCNP6.2-predicted and neutron dosimetry–measured reaction rates [ 54 Fe(n,p) 54 Мn, 93 Nb(n,n') 93 mNb, and 58 Ni(n,р) 58 Со] on the outer surface of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) Unit 2 RPV. Validation revealed that the MCNP6.2-predicted fast neutron fluence results are very sensitive to the ENDF-B neutron data. Particularly, MCNP6.2 with ENDF/B-VIII.0 significantly underpredicts (20% to 30%) fast neutron fluence while using ENDF/B-VII.1 data overpredicts it. Adding revised beta-released evaluations of 54 Fe, 56 Fe, 57 Fe, and 16 O from the International Nuclear Data Evaluation Network (INDEN) to ENDF/B-VIII.0 allows one to obtain reasonable agreement with measurement results for all types of measured reaction rates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of IMERG Oceanic Precipitation over Kwajalein

The integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Version V05B and V06B precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are validated against ground-based observations from the Kwajalein Polarimetric S-band Weather Radar (KPOL) deployed at Kwajalein Atoll in the central Pacific Ocean. Such a validation is particularly important as comprehensive surface measurements over the oceans are practically infeasible, which hampers the identification of possible errors, and improvement of future versions of IMERG and other satellitebased retrieval algorithms. The V05B and V06B IMERG products are validated at their native 0.1°, 30 min resolution from 2014 to 2018 based on both volumetric and categorical metrics. This validation study indicates that precipitation rates from both IMERG V05B and V06B are underestimated with respect to radar surface estimates, but the underestimation is much reduced from V05B IMERG V06B outperforms V05B with reduced systematic bias and improved precipitation detectability. The IMERG performance is further traced back to its individual sensors and morphing-based algorithms. The overall underestimation in V05B is mainly driven by the negative relative biases from morphing-based algorithms which are largely corrected in V06B. Imagers perform generally better than sounders because of the usage of low-frequency channels in imagers which can better detect emission signals by the hydrometeors. Among imagers, the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Version 2 (AMSR2) are the best, followed by Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). Among sounders, the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) is the best, followed by Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and the Sounder for Atmospheric Profiling of Humidity in the Intertropics by Radiometry (SAPHIR) for V06B. Among all categories, morph-only and IR+morph only perform better than SAPHIR. SAPHIR shows the worst performance among all categories, likely due to its limited channel selection. It is envisaged that these results will improve our understanding of IMERG performance over oceans and aid in the improvement of future versions of IMERG.

KPOL↗

Progressive Damage Failure Analysis of Post-Buckled Composite Single-Stringer Panel with Teflon Inserts

The high strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratio materials, such as laminated composites, are advantageous for modern aircraft. Laminated composites with initial flaws are susceptible to delamination under buckling loads. PDA tools help enhance the industry’s understanding of the mechanisms for damage initiation and growth in composite structures while assisting in the design, analysis, and sustainment methods of these composite structures. The global-local modeling approach for the single-stringer post-buckled panel was evaluated through this effort, using Teflon inserts to simulate the defect of damage during manufacturing. This understanding is essential for designing the post-buckled structure, reducing weight while predicting damage initiation location, and addressing a potential design review for future aircraft repairs. In this work, the initial damage was captured with Teflon inserts as the starting configuration; and any reference to the damage initiation refers to any damage beyond the “initial unbonded region.” The effort aims to develop, evaluate, and enhance methods to predict damage initiation and progression and the failure of post-buckled hat-stiffened panels using multiple Abaqus FEA Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) definitions. Validation of the PDA using the VCCT material model was performed on a large single-stringer panel subjected to compressive loading. The compressive loading of the panel caused the skin to buckle before any damage began to occur locally. In addition, comparisons are made for critical aspects of the damage morphology, such as a growth pattern that included delamination from the skin-stiffener interface to the skin and ply interfaces. When compared against the experimental data produced through the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP), the present model captured damage migration from one surface to another, and model validations were within 4% of the experimental data.

PDA↗

How Well Satellite Remote Sensing Can Inform Surface Level Ozone Production Sensitivity to Precursor Trace Gas Emissions?

Surface-level ozone (O3) pollution mitigation strategies rely on a clear understanding of the atmospheric chemical processes involving O3, NOx (nitric oxide (NO) + nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). A robust spatiotemporal classification of O3 photochemical regimes with relative chemical sensitivity of local O3 formation to emission reductions of NOx (NOx-limited regime) versus VOCs (radical-limited regime) is required to design anthropogenic emission reduction policies in order to improve surface air quality. Numerous studies found that the ratio of satellite-retrieved Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) of formaldehyde (HCHO) to NO2 can diagnose O3 production sensitivity. However, uncertainty still remains about the accuracy of such estimates using satellite-based retrievals. This study conducts an investigation to identify how well satellite data can inform surface-level O3 sensitivity by validating satellite-based estimates against aircraft-based retrievals taken during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS-2018) and Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS-2) field campaigns. For this study, we use HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura satellite, and high spatiotemporal resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system is used to provide trace gas vertical profiles to recalculate air mass factor for deriving consistent satellite-based VCDs. To demonstrate the ability of satellites to diagnose O3 production regimes, we validate satellite-derived O3 sensitivity regimes, along with the OMI and TROPOMI products applied, using HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the aircraft-based instruments: Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) spectrometer and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events Airborne Simulator (GCAS) instruments deployed during the LISTOS-2018 and OWLETS-2 campaigns. The results of this work will advance our fundamental knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution of the complex O3-NOx-VOC chemistry, and will advance our understanding about the quality of remote-sensing, suborbital, and satellite data for accurately observing surface-level O3 production sensitivity.

Satellite↗

Defect-induced displacement of topological surface state in quantum magnet MnBi2Te4

The topological magnet MnBi2⁢Te4 (MBT), with gapped topological surface state, is an attractive platform for realizing quantum anomalous Hall and axion insulator states. However, the experimentally observed surface state gaps fail to meet theoretical predictions, although the exact mechanism behind the gap suppression has been debated. Recent theoretical studies suggest that intrinsic antisite defects push the topological surface state away from the MBT surface, closing its gap and making it less accessible to scanning probe experiments. Here, we report on the local effect of defects on the MBT surface states and demonstrate that high defect concentrations lead to a displacement of the surface states well into the MBT crystal, validating the theorized mechanism. The local and global influence of antisite defects on the topological surface states are studied with samples of varying defect densities by combining scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and density functional theory. Our findings identify a combination of increased defect density and reduced defect spacing as the primary factors underlying the displacement of the surface states and suppression of surface gap, guiding further development of topological quantum materials.

Lupke, Felix [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗

A variational approach to the study of capillary phenomena

The problem of determining the free surface of a liquid in a capillary tube, and of a liquid drop, sitting first on a horizontal plane and then on more general surfaces is considered. With some modifications, the method applies to the study of pendent drops and of rotating drops as well. The standard capillary problem, i.e. the determination of the free surface of a liquid in a thin tube of general cross section, which resuls from the simultaneous action of surface tension, boundary adhesion and gravity is discussed. It turns out that in this case the existence of the solution surface depends heavily on the validity of a simple geometric condition about the mean curvature of the boundary curve of the cross section of the capillary tube. Some particular examples of physical interest are also be discussed. Liquid drops sitting on or hanging from a fixed horizontal plane are discussed. The symmetry of the solutions (which can actually be proved, as consequence of a general symmetrization argument) now plays the chief role in deriving both the existence and the regularity of energy-minimizing configurations. When symmetry fails (this is the case, for example, when the contact angle between the drop and the plate is not constant, or when the supporting surface is not itself symmetric), then more sophisticated methods must be used. Extensions in this direction are outlined.

Emmer, M.↗

Textile-Grade Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polycarbonate Composites: Effect of Epoxy Sizing

In this work, epoxy-sized textile-grade polyacrylonitrile (PAN) carbon fiber (TCF) with 450 K filaments (CFTF, ORNL) was reinforced in the polycarbonate (PC) matrix using a compression molding technique. The epoxy sizing effect on the surface, thermal, and mechanical properties of TCF–PC was investigated. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy results of the TCF–PC composite show the absence of an oxirane group (epoxy-sized TCF), which suggests a covalent bond formation between the oxirane ring and carbonyl groups from TCF and PC. Dynamic mechanical analysis results confirm a strong immobilized interface (b > 1) present between TCF and PC. The tensile, flexure, compression, and interlaminar shear strength of TCF–PC composites were 323 ± 53, 371 ± 31, 397 ± 87, and 36 ± 3 MPa, correspondingly. The fracture analysis through scanning electron microscopy shows good wettability between TCF and the PC matrix which validates the results obtained from surface and thermal characterization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Part 1: Aspects of lithospheric evolution on Venus. Part 2: Thermal and collisional histories of chondrite parent bodies

The geological evolution of distinctly different kinds of solar system objects is addressed. Venus has been observed over the past decade by orbital radars on both American and Soviet spacecraft. These surface measurements provide clues to the structure and evolution of the lithosphere. The parent bodies of chondritic meteorites, thought to resemble asteroids, represent the other end of the size spectrum of terrestrial objects. Their early thermal and collisional histories may be constrained by the chemical and textural record preserved in meteorite samples. Impact craters on Venus have been observed by the Soviet Venera 15/16 spacecraft. A formalism is presented by which the size-frequency distribution of impact craters may be used to estimate upper bounds on the mean global rates of volcanic resurfacing and lithospheric recycling on that planet over the past several hundred million years. The impact crater density reported from Venera observations, if valid for the entire Venus surface, indicates a mean volcanic flux no greater than 2 cu km/y, corresponding to a maximum average rate of resurfacing of about 4 km/b.y. For the lowest estimated mean crater retention age of the surface of Venus imaged by Venera 15/16, the rate of lithospheric recycling on Venus does not exceed 1.5 sq km/y. Ordinary chondrite meteorites show textural and chemical patterns indicative of varying intensities of thermal metamorphism. The conventional onion-shell model, which envisions highly metamorphosed material in the core and less intensely heated rocks near the surface, predicts an inverse relation between peak temperature and cooking rate, but none has been observed. A metamorphosed-planetesimal model is devised to explain this discrepancy, whereby heating occurs in planetesimals a few kilometers in radius which then accrete to form 100-km-radius parent bodies. Cooling rates are then randomly controlled by burial depth. Thermal and collisional constraints are examined, and the model is found to be applicable only to highly insulating Al-26-rich planetesimals that remain closely aggregated upon accretion. An alternative model is presented, in which onion-shell parent bodies are collisionally fragmented during metamorphism and then gravitationally reassembled. If reassembly times are short, then cooling rates would be determined by burial depth in the reaccreted parent body. This model, unlike previous ones, can explain both coherent and incoherent cooling of Breccia clasts by collisions during or after metamorphism, respectively.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

On Calculating the Zero-Gravity Surface Figure of a Mirror

An analysis of the classical method of calculating the zero-gravity surface figure of a mirror from surface-figure measurements in the presence of gravity has led to improved understanding of conditions under which the calculations are valid. In this method, one measures the surface figure in two or more gravity- reversed configurations, then calculates the zero-gravity surface figure as the average of the surface figures determined from these measurements. It is now understood that gravity reversal is not, by itself, sufficient to ensure validity of the calculations: It is also necessary to reverse mounting forces, for which purpose one must ensure that mountingfixture/ mirror contacts are located either at the same places or else sufficiently close to the same places in both gravity-reversed configurations. It is usually not practical to locate the contacts at the same places, raising the question of how close is sufficiently close. The criterion for sufficient closeness is embodied in the St. Venant principle, which, in the present context, translates to a requirement that the distance between corresponding gravity-reversed mounting positions be small in comparison to their distances to the optical surface of the mirror. The necessity of reversing mount forces is apparent in the behavior of the equations familiar from finite element analysis (FEA) that govern deformation of the mirror.

Bloemhof, Eric E.↗

Prediction of forces and moments for flight vehicle control effectors: Workplan

Two research activities directed at hypersonic vehicle configurations are currently underway. The first involves the validation of a number of classical local surface inclination methods commonly employed in preliminary design studies of hypersonic flight vehicles. Unlike studies aimed at validating such methods for predicting overall vehicle aerodynamics, this effort emphasizes validating the prediction of forces and moments for flight control studies. Specifically, several vehicle configurations for which experimental or flight-test data are available are being examined. By comparing the theoretical predictions with these data, the strengths and weaknesses of the local surface inclination methods can be ascertained and possible improvements suggested. The second research effort, of significance to control during take-off and landing of most proposed hypersonic vehicle configurations, is aimed at determining the change due to ground effect in control effectiveness of highly swept delta planforms. Central to this research is the development of a vortex-lattice computer program which incorporates an unforced trailing vortex sheet and an image ground plane. With this program, the change in pitching moment of the basic vehicle due to ground proximity, and whether or not there is sufficient control power available to trim, can be determined. In addition to the current work, two different research directions are suggested for future study. The first is aimed at developing an interactive computer program to assist the flight controls engineer in determining the forces and moments generated by different types of control effectors that might be used on hypersonic vehicles. The first phase of this work would deal in the subsonic portion of the flight envelope, while later efforts would explore the supersonic/hypersonic flight regimes. The second proposed research direction would explore methods for determining the aerodynamic trim drag of a generic hypersonic flight vehicle and ways in which it can be minimized through vehicle design and trajectory optimization.

Maughmer, Mark D.↗

Potential Advantages of Conducting Short Duration Visits to the Martian Surface

Recent NASA concepts for human missions to Mars, including the Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on the conduct of missions with long duration stays on the Martian surface. The decision to focus on long duration missions (typically to a single site) is driven by a desire to increase the perceived sustainability of the human Mars campaign, predicated on the assumption that sustainability is best achieved by maximizing the level of activity on the surface, providing for continuous growth in operations, and promoting pioneering of Mars. However, executing a series of long duration missions to a single site is not the only option for human exploration of Mars that has been proposed. Other architectures have been evaluated that focus on missions with short duration surface stays, with each mission visiting a separate site on the surface. This type of architecture is less efficient in that elements are not typically reused from one mission to the next but requires a far less complex surface architecture. There are potentially valid arguments to be made that a short duration, multiple site approach could result in different types of advantages when compared to the long duration, single site approach to Mars exploration, particularly for initial human missions to Mars. These arguments revolve around four areas: Achieved Value, Risk Mitigation, Developmental Affordability, and Operational Affordability & Flexibility. The question of Achieved Value relates to the prioritization of goals for Martian exploration. As discussed, goals related to pioneering and expanding human presence are often referenced as justifications for the long duration approach. However, there are other competing goals, including science and exploration. While there is not a clear consensus among planetary scientists, many have argued that the value of being able to visit multiple sites could outweigh the value of continually visiting a single site. Risk Mitigation is a major concern for initial human missions to Mars. There are a number of hazards related to operating on the Martian surface that are not well characterized. It may be desirable to conduct a series of short duration missions to better understand the nature of these risks prior to committing to a long duration mission. Developmental Affordability relates to the ability of NASA and its partners to develop and deploy the proposed architecture. Any human missions to Mars will be among the most complex endeavors ever undertaken. The capabilities that must be developed to enable any human Mars missions are extremely challenging. The total design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) budget required to develop just the essential capabilities alone will be substantial. If additional surface capabilities are required to support long duration surface stays, the development effort could be unaffordable. Operational Affordability & Flexibility relates to the continued costs to execute the Mars campaign. Long duration missions, even with some amount of in-situ resource utilization, require a significant level of resupply for every mission. This requires additional launches and in-space transportation assets, increasing the operational complexity and total operational cost. This paper will explore each of the four potential advantages of short duration missions in detail. The authors will present comparisons between proposed long duration and short duration architectures through an evaluation of relevant performance, cost, and risk metrics.

Stromgren, Chel↗