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Computational Validation of a Two-Dimensional Semi-Empirical Model for Inductive Coupling in a Conical Pulsed Inductive Plasma Thruster

A two-dimensional semi-empirical model of pulsed inductive thrust efficiency is developed to predict the effect of such a geometry on thrust efficiency. The model includes electromagnetic and gas-dynamic forces but excludes energy conversion from radial motion to axial motion, with the intention of characterizing thrust efficiency loss mechanisms that result from a conical versus a at inductive coil geometry. The range of conical pulsed inductive thruster geometries to which this model can be applied is explored with the use of finite element analysis. A semi-empirical relation for inductance as a function of current sheet radial and axial position is the limiting feature of the model, restricting the applicability as a function of half cone angle to a range from ten degrees to about 60 degrees. The model is nondimensionalized, yielding a set of dimensionless performance scaling parameters. Results of the model indicate that radial current sheet motion changes the axial dynamic impedance parameter at which thrust efficiency is maximized. This shift indicates that when radial current sheet motion is permitted in the model longer characteristic circuit timescales are more efficient, which can be attributed to a lower current sheet axial velocity as the plasma more rapidly decouples from the coil through radial motion. Thrust efficiency is shown to increase monotonically for decreasing values of the radial dynamic impedance parameter. This trend indicates that to maximize the radial decoupling timescale should be long compared to the characteristic circuit timescale.

Hallock, Ashley K.↗

The 2010 Very High Energy Gamma-Ray Flare and 10 Years of Multi-Wavelength Observations of M87

The giant radio galaxy M87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) X 10(exp 9) Solar Mass) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E>100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of super-massive black holes. M87 has been established as a VHE gamma -ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma -ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected. triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of rise tau ((sup rise sub d) = (1:69 +/- 0:30) days and tau(sup decay sub d = (0:611 +/- 0:080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (approx day), peak fluxes (Phi (sub > 0:35 TeV) approx. equals (1 - 3) X 10(exp -11) ph / square cm/s), and VHE spectra. 43 GHz VLBA radio observations of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken approx 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma -ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor approx 2; variability timescale < 2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from HST, LT, VLA and EVN, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma -ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kpc jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma -ray emission from M87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.

Abramowski, A.↗

Prognostics Approach for Power MOSFET Under Thermal-Stress

The prognostic technique for a power MOSFET presented in this paper is based on accelerated aging of MOSFET IRF520Npbf in a TO-220 package. The methodology utilizes thermal and power cycling to accelerate the life of the devices. The major failure mechanism for the stress conditions is dieattachment degradation, typical for discrete devices with leadfree solder die attachment. It has been determined that dieattach degradation results in an increase in ON-state resistance due to its dependence on junction temperature. Increasing resistance, thus, can be used as a precursor of failure for the die-attach failure mechanism under thermal stress. A feature based on normalized ON-resistance is computed from in-situ measurements of the electro-thermal response. An Extended Kalman filter is used as a model-based prognostics techniques based on the Bayesian tracking framework. The proposed prognostics technique reports on preliminary work that serves as a case study on the prediction of remaining life of power MOSFETs and builds upon the work presented in [1]. The algorithm considered in this study had been used as prognostics algorithm in different applications and is regarded as suitable candidate for component level prognostics. This work attempts to further the validation of such algorithm by presenting it with real degradation data including measurements from real sensors, which include all the complications (noise, bias, etc.) that are regularly not captured on simulated degradation data. The algorithm is developed and tested on the accelerated aging test timescale. In real world operation, the timescale of the degradation process and therefore the RUL predictions will be considerable larger. It is hypothesized that even though the timescale will be larger, it remains constant through the degradation process and the algorithm and model would still apply under the slower degradation process. By using accelerated aging data with actual device measurements and real sensors (no simulated behavior), we are attempting to assess how such algorithm behaves under realistic conditions.

Power MOSFET PHM↗

Rotation of a Moonless Earth

We numerically explore the obliquity (axial tilt) variations of a hypothetical moonless Earth. Previous work has shown that the Earth's Moon stabilizes Earth's obliquity such that it remains within a narrow range, between 22.1 deg and 24.5 deg. Without lunar influence, a frequency-map analysis by Laskar et al. showed that the obliquity could vary between 0 deg. and 85 deg. This has left an impression in the astrobiology community that a large moon is necessary to maintain a habitable climate on an Earth-like planet. Using a modified version of the orbital integrator mercury, we calculate the obliquity evolution for moonless Earths with various initial conditions for up to 4 Gyr. We find that while obliquity varies significantly more than that of the actual Earth over 100,000 year timescales, the obliquity remains within a constrained range, typically 20-25 deg. in extent, for timescales of hundreds of millions of years. None of our Solar System integrations in which planetary orbits behave in a typical manner show obliquity accessing more than 65% of the full range allowed by frequency-map analysis. The obliquities of moonless Earths that rotate in the retrograde direction are more stable than those of pro-grade rotators. The total obliquity range explored for moonless Earths with rotation periods shorter than 12 h is much less than that for slower-rotating moonless Earths. A large moon thus does not seem to be needed to stabilize the obliquity of an Earth-like planet on timescales relevant to the development of advanced life.

orbital integrator mercury↗

Brown Dwarf Variability: What's Varying and Why?

Surveys by ground based telescopes, HST, and Spitzer have revealed that brown dwarfs of most spectral classes exhibit variability. The spectral and temporal signatures of the variability are complex and apparently defy simplistic classification which complicates efforts to model the changes. Important questions include understanding if clearings are forming in an otherwise uniform cloud deck or if thermal perturbations, perhaps associated with breaking gravity waves, are responsible. If clouds are responsible how long does it take for the atmospheric thermal profile to relax from a hot cloudy to a cooler cloudless state? If thermal perturbations are responsible then what atmospheric layers are varying? How do the observed variability timescales compare to atmospheric radiative, chemical, and dynamical timescales? I will address such questions by presenting modeling results for time-varying partly cloudy atmospheres and explore the importance of various atmospheric processes over the relevant timescales for brown dwarfs of a range of effective temperatures. Regardless of the origin of the observed variability, the complexity seen in the atmospheres of the field dwarfs hints at the variability that we may encounter in the next few years in directly imaged young Jupiters. Thus understanding the nature of variability in the field dwarfs, including sensitivity to gravity and metallicity, is of particular importance for exoplanet characterization.

brown dwarfs↗

The Variable Crab Nebula: Evidence for a Connection Between GeV Flares and Hard X-ray Variations

In 2010, hard X-ray variations (Wilson-Hodge et al. 2011) and GeV flares (Tavani et al 2011, Abdo et al. 2011) from the Crab Nebula were discovered. Connections between these two phenomena were unclear, in part because the timescales were quite different, with yearly variations in hard X-rays and hourly to daily variations in the GeV flares. The hard X-ray flux from the Crab Nebula has again declined since 2014, much like it did in 2008-2010. During both hard X-ray decline periods, the Fermi LAT detected no GeV flares, suggesting that injection of particles from the GeV flares produces the much slower and weaker hard X-ray variations. The timescale for the particles emitting the GeV flares to lose enough energy to emit synchrotron photons in hard X-rays is consistent with the yearly variations observed in hard X-rays and with the expectation that the timescale for variations slowly increases with decreasing energy. This hypothesis also predicts even slower and weaker variations below 10 keV, consistent with the non-detection of counterparts to the GeV flares by Chandra (Weisskopf et al 2013). We will present a comparison of the observed hard X-ray variations and a simple model of the decay of particles from the GeV flares to test our hypothesis.

Variable Crab Nebula↗

Hard X-Ray Emission of the Luminous Infrared Galaxy NGC 6240 as Observed by Nustar

We present a broadband (approx.0.3−70 keV) spectral and temporal analysis of NuSTAR observations of the luminous infrared galaxy NGC 6240 combined with archival Chandra, XMM-Newton, and BeppoSAX data. NGC 6240 is a galaxy in a relatively early merger state with two distinct nuclei separated by approx.1.5. Previous Chandra observations resolved the two nuclei and showed that they are both active and obscured by Compton-thick material. Although they cannot be resolved by NuSTAR, we were able to clearly detect, for the first time, both the primary and the reflection continuum components thanks to the unprecedented quality of the NuSTAR data at energies >10 keV. The NuSTAR hard X-ray spectrum is dominated by the primary continuum piercing through an absorbing column density which is mildly optically thick to Compton scattering (tau approx. = 1.2, NH approx. 1.5×10(exp 24)/sq cm. We detect moderately hard X-ray (>10 keV) flux variability up to 20% on short (15−20 ks) timescales. The amplitude of the variability is largest at approx..30 keV and is likely to originate from the primary continuum of the southern nucleus. Nevertheless, the mean hard X-ray flux on longer timescales (years) is relatively constant. Moreover, the two nuclei remain Compton-thick, although we find evidence of variability in the material along the line of sight with column densities NH < or = 2×10(exp 23)/sq cm over long (approx.3−15 yr) timescales. The observed X-ray emission in the NuSTAR energy range is fully consistent with the sum of the best-fit models of the spatially resolved Chandra spectra of the two nuclei.

galaxies: active / galaxies: individual: NGC 6240 ↗

Quasi-Periodic Pulsations During the Impulsive and Decay Phases of an X-Class Flare

Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) are often observed in X-ray emission from solar flares. To date, it is unclear what their physical origins are. Here, we present a multi-instrument investigation of the nature of QPP during the impulsive and decay phases of the X1.0 flare of 2013 October 28. We focus on the character of the fine structure pulsations evident in the soft X-ray (SXR) time derivatives and compare this variability with structure across multiple wavelengths including hard X-ray and microwave emission. We find that during the impulsive phase of the flare, high correlations between pulsations in the thermal and non-thermal emissions are seen. A characteristic timescale of 20 s is observed in all channels and a second timescale of 55 s is observed in the non-thermal emissions. SXR pulsations are seen to persist into the decay phase of this flare, up to 20 minutes after the non-thermal emission has ceased. We find that these decay phase thermal pulsations have very small amplitude and show an increase in characteristic timescale from 40 s up to 70 s. We interpret the bursty nature of the co-existing multi-wavelength QPPs during the impulsive phase in terms of episodic particle acceleration and plasma heating. The persistent thermal decay phase QPPs are most likely connected with compressive magnetohydrodynamic processes in the post-flare loops such as the fast sausage mode or the vertical kink mode.

Hays, L. A.↗

Decadal Polar Motion of the Earth Excited by the Convective Outer Core From Geodynamo Simulations

Long time geodetic observation records show that the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis with respect to the terrestrial reference frame, or polar motion, changes on a broad range of timescales. Apart from external torques from the luni-solar tides, these changes are excited by interactions among different components of the Earth system. The convective fluid outer core has long been conjectured a likely contributor to the observed polar motion on timescales upward of decades, such as the 30 year Markowitz wobble. We investigated the electromagnetic coupling scenario across the core-mantle boundary via numerical geodynamo simulation for different geodynamo parameters (Rayleigh numbers and magnetic Rossby numbers). Our simulated polar motion varies strongly with the dynamo parameters, while its excitation on decadal timescales appear to converge asymptotically within the adopted range of numerical Rossby numbers. Three strongest asymptotic modes emerge from numerical results, with periods around 30, 40, and 60 years for the prograde excitation and around 24, 30, and 60 years for the retrograde excitation. Their amplitudes are all larger than 5 times 10 (sup minus 8), or approximately 10 milliseconds of arc.The results suggest that the electromagnetic core-mantle coupling could explain a substantial portion, if not all, of the observed decadal polar motion. In particular, the predicted 60 year polar motion deserves special attention for future observations and studies.

Kuang, W.↗

On the 2018 Outburst of the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1756.9-2508 As Seen with NICER

We report on the coherent timing analysis of the 182 Hz accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SwiftJ1756.92508during its 2018 outburst as observed with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Combiningour NICER observations with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts, we alsostudied the long-term spin and orbital evolution of this source. We find that the binary system is well describedby a constant orbital period model, with an upper limit on the orbital period derivative of Pb < 7.4 ´ 10-13 ss1.Additionally, we improve upon the source coordinates through astrometric analysis of the pulse arrival times,finding R.A.=17h56m57 18±0 08 and decl.=25°0627 8±3 5, while simultaneously measuring thelong-term spin frequency derivative as n = -7.3 ´ 10-16 Hzs1. We briefly discuss the implications of thesemeasurements in the context of the wider population of accreting millisecond pulsars. We reported on the coherent timing analysis of the 2018 outburst of Swift J1756 as observed with NICER. Consistent with analyses of the previous outbursts (Krimm et al. 2007b; Patruno et al. 2010), we find that the X-ray pulsations have energy dependent amplitudes; the fractional amplitude of the fundamental increases with energy, whereas the fractional amplitude of the harmonic shows a slight decline with energy. This energy dependent behavior is not unusual in AMXPs (Patruno & Watts 2012) and can be interpreted in terms of the thermal emission from the stellar hotspot and reprocessing in the accretion column (e.g., Gierliński et al. 2002; Ibragimov & Poutanen 2009). The pulse arrival times of the 2018 outburst are well described by a timing model consisting of a circular orbit with a constant spin frequency. The pulse phases with respect to this model do not show spurious residuals with time or orbital phase, and no evidence is found that the pulse arrival times exhibit an additional delay associated with passing through the gravitational well of the companion star (Shapiro delay). We note, however, that the expected Shapiro delay is given as (Shapiro et al. 1971) Equation (5) where Φ is the orbital phase, G is the gravitational constant, c is the speed of light, and i is the inclination. Even for the maximum allowed companion mass, ${M}_{C}=0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$ (Krimm et al. 2007b, but see Section 4.2 for more details) and an inclination of 90°, the largest delay we can expect is only 4 μs. As this time-delay is smaller than the uncertainty on our phase residuals by nearly two orders of magnitude (see Figure 1), we are not sensitive to Shapiro delays in Swift J1756. Comparing our measurements for the 2018 outburst with those of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts as observed with RXTE, we analyzed the long-term evolution of this source. We found that the binary system is consistent with having a constant orbital period and that the pulsar shows a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{\nu }=-7.3\times {10}^{-16}\,\mathrm{Hz}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$. 4.1. Spin-down Evolution The long-term spin frequency derivative measured in Swift J1756 is of the same order as the spin frequency derivatives measured in other AMXPs (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno 2010; Riggio et al. 2011). This frequency change is most likely driven by the neutron star's loss of rotational energy. If so, then the spin-down luminosity is given as Equation (6) where I represents the neutron star moment of inertia. The long-term spin-down of a neutron star is usually assumed to be dominated by the braking torque associated with a spinning magnetic field. Assuming this mechanism is responsible for the observed spin-down in Swift J1756, we can compute the magnetic dipole moment as (Spitkovsky 2006) Equation (7) where α is the misalignment angle between the rotational and magnetic poles. Considering α = 0°–90°, we then find a magnetic field strength of $B\simeq (4\mbox{--}6)\times {10}^{8}$ G at the stellar magnetic poles. This magnetic field strength estimate is in line with those obtained for other accreting millisecond pulsars (see Mukherjee et al. 2015 and references therein). 4.2. Orbit Evolution The observed long-term binary evolution of Swift J1756 is consistent with this source having a constant orbital period and a lower limit on the evolutionary timescale of Equation (8) Binary evolution theory predicts that systems of this type evolve due to angular momentum loss through gravitational radiation (Kraft et al. 1962; Rappaport et al. 1982; Verbunt 1993). For conservative mass transfer, the binary period derivative is given by di Salvo et al. (2008), Equation (9) where MNS is the neutron star mass, $q={M}_{C}/{M}_{\mathrm{NS}}$ is the binary mass ratio, and −1/3 < n < 1 is the mass–radius index of the companion star. Depending on the source inclination, Krimm et al. (2007b) derived a companion mass of ${M}_{C}\,=0.007\mbox{--}0.022\,{M}_{\odot }$ for a neutron star mass of 1.4 ${M}_{\odot }$. For a neutron star mass of 2.2 ${M}_{\odot }$, the allowed range increased to ${M}_{C}=0.009\mbox{--}0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$. In both cases, they assumed an upper limit on the inclination of i < 85°, motivated by the fact that Swift J1756 does not show eclipses in its light curve. Accounting for the extreme cases of stellar masses and n, the binary may either be contracting or expanding. In either case, however, the rate of change is limited to $| {\dot{P}}_{b}| \lesssim 7\times {10}^{-14}$ s s−1, which is well below the upper limit obtained in this work. Although the binary evolution timescale we obtain for Swift J1756 is consistent with theory, it is worth noting that this is not generally true for low-mass X-ray binaries (see Patruno et al. 2017, for a comprehensive discussion). The AMXP SAX J1808.4–3658, in particular, has been found to evolve on a much shorter timescale, with a first derivative on the orbital period of $3.5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1 (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno et al. 2012; Sanna et al. 2017a). Two models have been proposed to explain this discrepancy: highly nonconservative mass transfer due to irradiation of the companion star by the pulsar (di Salvo et al. 2008; Burderi et al. 2009), and spin–orbit coupling in the companion star (Hartman et al. 2008, 2009). While the latter depends on the companion star, and may vary from source to source, the former should operate in all AMXPs (see also Patruno 2017; Sanna et al. 2017c), including Swift J1756. The spin-down luminosity impinging on the companion star can be estimated as Equation (10) where ${\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}$ is the ablation luminosity, RL2 is the Roche lobe radius of the companion (Eggleton 1983), and a the binary separation. The irradiation fraction is $f={\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}/{\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{sd}}$, which, accounting for the range of allowed neutron star and companion masses, evaluates to f = 0.15%–0.35%. The associated mass loss for the companion is given by Equation (11) such that, assuming an efficiency of η = 100%, ${\dot{M}}_{C}\,\sim -3\times {10}^{-10}\,{M}_{\odot }$ yr−1. The effect of this mass loss on the orbital period follows through the relation (Frank et al. 2002) Equation (12) giving a period derivative due to mass loss of ${\dot{P}}_{b,\mathrm{ML}}\,=5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1. This value is well above our limit on the period derivative. Hence, in order for this mechanism to be consistent with our observations of Swift J1756, the efficiency at which the companion star converts the incident luminosity into mass loss must be η < 15%. This value is very different from the 40% required in SAX J1808.4–3658 (Patruno et al. 2016) and is instead in line with the <5% efficiency determined for IGR J00291+5934 (Patruno 2017). This work was supported by NASA through the NICER mission and the Astrophysics Explorers Program, and made use of data and software provided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center (HEASARC). P.B. was supported by an NPP fellowship at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. D.A. acknowledges support from the Royal Society.

Bult, Peter↗

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction

Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.

Ocean reanalysis↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

The Changing Changing-Look AGN 1ES 1927+654

We report on X-ray follow-up observations of the March 2018 nuclear transient event AT2018zf (ASASSN-18el) from an ongoing campaign that includes XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, Swift, and high cadence (daily-to-weekly) NICER observations. The event was associated with the Seyfert galaxy 1ES 1927+654, a "True Type-2" that, nevertheless, showed an X-ray spectrum typical of an unobscured Type 1 AGN. Optical monitoring revealed the emergence of broad Balmer emission lines following the outburst, suggesting a transition from a Type 2 to a Type 1 AGN on timescales consistent with the light-travel time between the central black hole and the broad line region. The optical outburst was followed by a dramatic shift in the X-ray spectrum as the hard X-ray luminosity of the corona plunged by >2 orders of magnitude and the spectrum became dominated by a 10^6 K thermal component. The subsequent X-ray evolution of 1ES 1927+654 includes an additional two-order of magnitude decline in overall luminosity, followed by an extended period of quiescence, and re-brightening to levels that make it the brightest AGN currently in the X-ray sky. Throughout its evolution, the source has displayed X-ray flux variability of factors of several on timescales less than hour, and of ~100 on timescales less than a day. The X-ray spectrum varies along a consistent luminosity-dependent track, wherein increases in flux are accompanied by a spectral hardening. We seem to be witnessing the onset of an instability in the pre-existing AGN disc and corona, followed by a still-continuing re-emergence of the corona. If the initial transient is identified as the tidal disruption of a star, it is possible that this was the instigator of this unique behavior.

Loewenstein, M.↗

Compound High Temperature and Low Chlorophyll Extremes in the Ocean Over the Satellite Period

Ocean extreme events severely impact marine organisms and ecosystems. Of particular concern are compoundevents, i.e., when conditions are extreme for multiple potential ocean ecosystem stressors such as temperature and chlorophyll.Yet, little is known about the occurrence, intensity and duration of such compound high temperature (aka marine heatwaves -MHWs) and low chlorophyll (LChl) extreme events, whether their distributions have changed in the past decades and what thepotential drivers are. Here we use satellite-based sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration estimates to provide a5first assessment of such compound extreme events. We reveal hotspots of compound MHW and LChl events in the equatorialPacific, along the boundaries of the subtropical gyres, in the northern Indian Ocean, and around Antarctica. In these regions,compound events that typically last one week occur three to seven times more often than expected under the assumption ofindependence between MHWs and LChl events. The occurrence of compound MHW and LChl events varies on seasonalto interannual timescales. At the seasonal timescale, most compound events occur in summer in both hemispheres. At the10interannual timescale, the frequency of compound MHW and LChl events is strongly modulated by large-scale modes of naturalclimate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, whose positive phase is associated with increased compoundevent occurrence in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in the Indian Ocean by a factor of up to four. Our results provide a firstunderstanding of where, when and why compound MHW and LChl events occur. Further studies are needed to identify theexact physical and biological drivers of these potentially harmful events in the ocean and their evolution under global warming.

High Temperature↗

Solid-state Precipitation in Molecular Dynamics: KMC-MD Hybrid Simulations

A critical drawback of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations when modeling physical properties is the limitation to short timescales. Solid state precipitation is one behavior that is not significantly observable at timescales accessible to MD, and thus has been difficult to simulate at an MD scale. Taking inspiration from Kinetic Monte-Carlo (KMC) methods for simulating diffusion on a rigid lattice, we have developed a hybrid KMC-MD approach to enable simulation of solid-state precipitation during MD simulation implemented in LAMMPS. This method incorporates the atomic neighbor hopping behavior utilized by KMC simulations into a MD simulation with a variable local lattice configuration. By accelerating nearest-neighbor atomic hopping with this technique, solid-state precipitation can be observed at an MD timescale. Utilizing theory based on persistent-embryo methods for liquid-solid precipitation in MD we demonstrate the calculation of critical nucleus size for the gamma’ precipitation out of gamma phase in the Ni-Al system.

Molecular Dynamics↗

Solid-state Precipitation in Molecular Dynamics: kMC-MD Hybrid Simulations

A critical drawback of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations when modeling physical properties is the limitation to short timescales. Solid state precipitation is one behavior that is not significantly observable at timescales accessible to MD, and thus has been difficult to simulate at an MD scale. Taking inspiration from Kinetic Monte-Carlo (KMC) methods for simulating diffusion on a rigid lattice, we have developed a hybrid KMC-MD approach to enable simulation of solid-state precipitation during MD simulation implemented in LAMMPS. This method incorporates the atomic neighbor hopping behavior utilized by KMC simulations into a MD simulation with a variable local lattice configuration. By accelerating nearest-neighbor atomic hopping with this technique, solid-state precipitation can be observed at an MD timescale. Utilizing theory based on persistent-embryo methods for liquid-solid precipitation in MD we demonstrate the calculation of critical nucleus size for the gamma’ precipitation out of gamma phase in the Ni-Al system.

Molecular Dynamics↗

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

stomata↗

Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update

INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.

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