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At least 379 records · Page 21

Evaluating Surface Exposure Timescales Derived From Solar Energetic Particle Track Densities for Grains From Apollo 17 Core Sample 73002

Space weathering causes the surface soils of airless bodies like the Moon to be morphologically, microstructurally, and chemically altered due to micrometeoroid bombardment and solar wind exposure. These processes produce a multitude of microstructural and chemical changes that accumulate on individual soil grains that are continuously exposed on the surface. One characteristic is the formation of solar wind damaged rims on grains which develop from low energy solar wind particles penetrating <100 nm in depth. Also present are solar energetic particle (SEP) tracks, which are nanoscale streaks of irradiation damage in grain interiors formed by heavy, high energy ions (predominantly Fe group nuclei) originating from solar energetic particles (SEPs) that penetrate millimeters below the surface.

J. A. McFadden↗

Satellite observations of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Geosat, and TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

Many polar lows are generated at the boundary between sea ice and the ocean, in regions of large temperature gradients, where in situ observations are rare or nonexistent. Since satellite observations are frequent in high-latitude regions, they can be used to detect polar lows and track their propagation and evolution. The Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) providing estimates of surface wind speed, integrated cloud liquid water content, water vapor content, and precipitation size ice-scattering signal over the ocean; the Geosat radar altimeter measuring surface wind speed and significant wave height; and the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) allowing the determination of temperature and humidity profiles in the atmosphere have been used in synergy for a specific case which occurred in the Norwegian Sea on January, 23-24 1988. All three instruments show sharp atmospheric gradients associated with the propagation of this low across the ocean, which permit the detection of the polar low at a very early stage and tracking it during its development, propagation, and decay. The wind speed gradients are measured with good qualitative agreement between the altimeter and SSM/I. TOVS retrieved fields prior to the formation of the low confirm the presence of an upper level trough, while during the mature phase baroclinicity can be observed in the 1000-500 hPa geopotential thicknesses.

Claud, Chantal↗

Assessing the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

The role of soil moisture in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land has long been recognized. Dry land surface conditions can lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions can help sustain or even re-intensify a TC. The ability to forecast post-landfall TC evolution and mitigate the associated socio-economic impact thus hinges on accurate knowledge of land surface conditions prior to landfall. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides accurate observations of soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has been shown that the assimilation of SMAPbrightness temperatures (Tb) significantly improves modeled land surface states and thus has the potential to constrain land surface initial conditions in TC forecasts. In this presentation, we investigate this potential through an extensive set of Observing System Experiments that systematically assess the impact of assimilating SMAP Tbs on TC forecast skill in the Goddard Earth Observing System. Focusing on the case of TC Idai, we show that the assimilation of SMAP generally leads to a drier soil moisture analysis for the land surface underneath much of the storm’s circulation. An exception is the direct TC track, where SMAP assimilation increases soil moisture. These changes are reflected in the surface fluxes, which propagate the land surface state changes to the atmosphere. This results a TC that is overall weaker with lower winds, but with a better-defined eye and a slightly smaller track error than a simulation without SMAP DA. The changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of SMAP also impact the total precipitation amounts as well as the precipitation structure associated with TC Idai.

SMAP↗

Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States

Abstract. Windstorms are a major natural hazard in many countries. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize intense windstorms during the last 4 decades in the US Northeast and determine both the sources of cyclones responsible for these events and the manner in which those cyclones differ from the cyclone climatology. The windstorm detection is based on the spatial extent of locally extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis database. During the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceed their local 99.9th percentile over at least one-third of land-based ERA5 grid cells in this high-population-density region of the USA. Maximum sustained wind speeds at 100 m during these windstorms range from 26 to over 43 ms−1, with wind speed return periods exceeding 6.5 to 106 years (considering the top 5 % of grid cells during each storm). Property damage associated with these storms, with inflation adjusted to January 2020, ranges from USD 24 million to over USD 29 billion. Two of these windstorms are linked to decaying tropical cyclones, three are Alberta clippers, and the remaining storms are Colorado lows. Two of the 10 re-intensified off the east coast, leading to development of nor'easters. These windstorms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but exhibit maximum intensities as measured using 700 hPa relative vorticity and mean sea level pressure that is 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones that followed similar tracks over this 40-year period. The time evolution of wind speeds and concurrent precipitation for those windstorms that occurred after the year 2000 exhibit good agreement with in situ ground-based and remote sensing observations, plus storm damage reports, indicating that the ERA5 reanalysis data have a high degree of fidelity for large, damaging windstorms such as these. A larger pool of the top 50 largest windstorms exhibit evidence of only weak serial clustering, which is in contrast to the relatively strong serial clustering of windstorms in Europe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-scale Analysis of Surface Heterogeneity Induced Convection on Isentropic Coordinates

This research uses semi-idealized simulations to investigate multi-scale processes induced by the heterogeneity of soil moisture observed during the 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The semi-idealized simulations have realistic land heterogeneity, but large-scale winds are removed. Analysis on isentropic coordinates enables the tracking of circulation that transports energy vertically and facilitates the identification of the primary convective processes induced by realistic land heterogeneity. The isentropes associated with upward motion are found to connect the ground characterized by high latent heat flux to cloud bases directly over the ground with high sensible heat flux, while isentropes associated with downward motion connect precipitation to the ground characterized by high sensible heat fluxes. The mixing of dry, warm parcels ascending from the ground with high sensible heat fluxes and moist parcels from high latent heat regions leads to cloud formation. This new mechanism explains how soil moisture heterogeneity provides the key ingredients such as buoyancy and moisture for shallow cloud formation. We also found that the sub-mesoscale dominates upward energy transport in the boundary layer, while mesoscale circulations contribute to vertical energy transport above the boundary layer. Our novel method better illustrates and elucidates the nature of land atmospheric interactions under irregular and realistic soil moisture patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutrally-buoyant balloons experiment – EMRTC 2025

This memo announces the successful execution of the neutrally-buoyant balloon experiment (EMRTC 2025), conducted at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology’s Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center (EMRTC) in Socorro, NM between April 3 and May 9, 2025. The experiment aimed to build on EMRTC 2022 balloon experiment through testing the effects of lateral and vertical displacement of release locations in a different terrain than EMRTC 2022. EMRTC 2025 employed dual GPS trackers on each balloon to provide both detailed near-source motion tracking in addition to the low-frequency long-distance trackers used in EMRTC 2022. A total of 156 neutrally-buoyant balloons were released over the week of May 5-9, which was approximately 2.5 times the number released in the EMRTC 2022 campaign. The dual tracking system will allow characterizing complex three-dimensional wind structures close to terrain features and diurnal wind patterns to validate wind and plume dispersion models for treaty verification.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A correction for the errors in ship reports of light winds

The errors in ship wind reports of light wings tend to significantly bias their mean. This occurs because wind speed is a scalar quantity that is constrained to zero or positive values. Therefore, observations tend to overestimate the light winds because of the one-sided distribution of errors, but the bias disappears under stronger winds. A method for removing this bias from ship data is presented. In particular, the method is applied to interpreting the ratios of wind speeds observed by ships to those obtained from tracking low level clouds. Corrected ratios allow low cloud speeds to serve as proxy data for surface based observations.

Hinton, B. B.↗

Effect of motion cues during complex curved approach and landing tasks: A piloted simulation study

A piloted simulation study was conducted to examine the effect of motion cues using a high fidelity simulation of commercial aircraft during the performance of complex approach and landing tasks in the Microwave Landing System (MLS) signal environment. The data from these tests indicate that in a high complexity MLS approach task with moderate turbulence and wind, the pilot uses motion cues to improve path tracking performance. No significant differences in tracking accuracy were noted for the low and medium complexity tasks, regardless of the presence of motion cues. Higher control input rates were measured for all tasks when motion was used. Pilot eye scan, as measured by instrument dwell time, was faster when motion cues were used regardless of the complexity of the approach tasks. Pilot comments indicated a preference for motion. With motion cues, pilots appeared to work harder in all levels of task complexity and to improve tracking performance in the most complex approach task.

Scanlon, Charles H.↗

Airborne Doppler lidar wind field measurements of waves in the lee of Mount Shasta

Doppler lidar wind data obtained along one leg of a race track traverse around Mount Shasta are presently studied to establish their value and limitations for the study of orographic flows, as well as to evaluate the relative usefulness of a linear model in the analyses of the observed fields-of-motion. The model successfully reproduced the observed downstream lee of positive horizontal divergence which embedded spatially irregular waves, but the amplitudes of the model downstream divergence is smaller than the observations by a factor of two.

Blumen, William↗

The discrepancy between stratospheric ozone profiles from balloon soundings and from other techniques: A possible explanation

Regular balloon ozone soundings with electrochemical sondes have been performed at Uccle since 1969. More than 450 ozone soundings between 1985 and 1989 were used to calculate the altitudes Zs from the VIZ radiosonde data and the altitudes Zr deduced from the tracking of the balloon train with a primary wind-finding radar. The values of Zs at fixed times appeared to be systematically too low as compared to Zr. The differences Zr-Zs increase with altitude; at 30 km the annual mean values of Zr-Zs (plus or minus standard deviation) vary between 590 plus or minus 910 m and 1410 plus or minus 1160 m, according to the pressure calibration of different manufacturing series of radiosondes. From these results it is found that around the 30 km level the ozone concentrations calculated from soundings with VIZ sondes are too low by 7.5 to 14 percent, depending upon the manufacturing series of radiosondes. At least part of the discrepancy which has often been found between ozone profiles from balloon soundings and from other techniques such as rocket observations or Umkehr measurements may be explained by this effect. An altitude correction would have important consequences as to the climatology of ozone in the middle stratosphere as adopted at the moment. About half of the day-to-day variability of ozone observed from soundings with VIZ radiosondes above the 30 km level, is induced by the variability of Zr-Zs. The agreement between altitudes calculated from radar data and Vaisala radiosondes is much better; from 34 comparative soundings a mean difference (plus or minus standard deviation) of about -300 plus/minus 180 m was found at 30 km.

Demuer, Dirk↗

Characterizing the wake vortex signature for an active line of sight remote sensor

A recurring phenomenon, described as a wake vortex, develops as an aircraft approaches the runway to land. As the aircraft moves along the runway, each of the wing tips generates a spiraling and expanding cone of air. During the lifetime of this turbulent event, conditions exist over the runway which can be hazardous to following aircraft, particularly when a small aircraft is following a large aircraft. Left to themselves, these twin vortex patterns will converge toward each other near the center of the runway, harmlessly dissipating through interaction with each other or by contact with the ground. Unfortunately, the time necessary to disperse the vortex is often not predictable, and at busy airports can severely impact terminal area productivity. Rudimentary methods of avoidance are in place. Generally, time delays between landing aircraft are based on what is required to protect a small aircraft. Existing ambient wind conditions can complicate the situation. Reliable detection and tracking of a wake vortex hazard is a major technical problem which can significantly impact runway productivity. Landing minimums could be determined on the basis of the actual hazard rather than imposed on the basis of a worst case scenario. This work focuses on using a windfield description of a wake vortex to generate line-of-sight Doppler velocity truth data appropriate to an arbitrarily located active sensor such as a high resolution radar or lidar. The goal is to isolate a range Doppler signature of the vortex phenomenon that can be used to improve detection. Results are presented based on use of a simplified model of a wake vortex pattern. However, it is important to note that the method of analysis can easily be applied to any vortex model used to generate a windfield snapshot. Results involving several scan strategies are shown for a point sensor with a range resolution of 1 to 4 meters. Vortex signatures presented appear to offer potential for detection and tracking.

Heil, Robert Milton↗

Estimation of the Anthropogenic Influence in the Sahel by Terra and Aqua

Saharan dust impacts the Earth radiation balance. It was suggested that anywhere between 20-50% of the dust is anthropogenic, generated from human activity in the Sahel. Recent study By Prospero et al noticed that most of the sources should be north of Latitude of 15 deg. where population density is small. Here we use Aqua and Terra data to study the dust sources and their possible anthropogenic origin. Dust packages emitted from the Bodele depression and other sources in the southern part of the Sahara, are transported in the winter by a Northern East winds over the Sahel to the ocean. We are tracking these packages with MODIS from their sources to the ocean, showing that most of the dust reaching the Ocean from the Sahelian shore is generated in the Sahara, suggesting that the anthropogenic influence in the area is negligible. Saharan dust was suggested to be the main source of nutrients to the Amazon forest. Here we are also showing that these South Saharan sources around the Bodele depression are very active in the winter and rather passive in the summer, suggesting that the type of dust reaching Brazil, and its mineral content from these sources may be different from the dust that arrives to North America and Europe emitted in the summer from different sources.

Koren, I.↗

Input Constrained M-MRAC for Multirotors Operating in an Urban Environment

The paper presents a modified model reference adaptive control (M-MRAC) for multi-input multi-output nonlinear dynamical systems with time varying parametric uncertainties and bounded external disturbances. It uses a prediction model to rapidly generate adaptive estimates of the system's uncertainties with adjustable errors that converge to a small neighborhood of the origin. A sufficient condition is derived to specify the region of attraction in the space of initialization errors, design parameters and external commends. The approach is applied to thrust controlled multi-rotor air vehicles operating in an urban environment. It is shown that the designed controller can provide a good tracking of a given trajectory in the unknown urban wind field, assuming that the maximum thrust generated by the rotors is known. The performance of the algorithms are demonstrated in simulations.

Stepanyan, Vahram↗

US Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.

tropical cyclone (TC) model↗

High resolution system for upper air (troposphere) wind and temperature profile measurements

The Jimsphere/Jimsonde system is described and some possible applications of the system for air-sea interface measurements are presented. As space vehicles became larger and more sophisticated, an improved method for obtaining wind profile data had to be found. To satisfy this need the FPS-16 radar/Jimsphere system was developed. The Jimsphere is an aluminized mylar spherical balloon, two meters in diameter. The balloon is under superpressure, and is tracked with a high precision radar system. The development of this detailed wind profile system was started in 1963, and the present design was established in 1964. To improve the system, a program was initiated in 1965 to obtain high resolution temperature data simultaneously with the wind profile data.

Camp, D. W.↗

Neptune Long-Lived Atmospheric Features in 2013 - 2015 from Small (28-cm) to Large (10-m) Telescopes

Since 2013, observations of Neptune with small telescopes (28-50 cm) have resulted in several detections of long-lived bright atmospheric features that have also been observed by large telescopes such as Keck II or Hubble. The combination of both types of images allows the study of the long-term evolution of major cloud systems in the planet. In 2013 and 2014 two bright features were present on the planet at southern mid-latitudes. These may have merged in late 2014, possibly leading to the formation of a single bright feature observed during 2015 at the same latitude. This cloud system was first observed in January 2015 and nearly continuously from July to December 2015 in observations with telescopes in the 2-10-m class and in images from amateur astronomers. These images show the bright spot as a compact feature at −40.1 +/- 1.6 deg planetographic latitude well resolved from a nearby bright zonal band that extended from −42 deg to −20 deg. The size of this system depends on wavelength and varies from a longitudinal extension of 8000 +/- 900 km and latitudinal extension of 6500 +/- 900 km in Keck II images in H and Ks bands to 5100 +/- 1400 km in longitude and 4500 +/- 1400 km in latitude in HST images in 657 nm. Over July to September 2015 the structure drifted westward in longitude at a rate of 24.48 +/- 0.03 deg/day or −94 +/- 3 m/s. This is about 30 m/s slower than the zonal winds measured at the time of the Voyager 2 flyby. Tracking its motion from July to November 2015 suggests a longitudinal oscillation of 16 deg in amplitude with a 90-day period, typical of dark spots on Neptune and similar to the Great Red Spot oscillation in Jupiter. The limited time covered by high-resolution observations only covers one full oscillation and other interpretations of the changing motions could be possible. HST images in September 2015 show the presence of a dark spot at short wavelengths located in the southern flank (planetographic latitude −47.0 deg) of the bright compact cloud observed throughout 2015. The drift rate of the bright cloud and dark spot translates to a zonal speed of −87.0 +/- 2.0 m/s, which matches the Voyager 2 zonal speeds at the latitude of the dark spot. Identification of a few other features in 2015 enabled the extraction of some limited wind information over this period. This work demonstrates the need of frequently monitoring Neptune to understand its atmospheric dynamics and shows excellent opportunities for professional and amateur collaborations.

dynamics↗

Sliding Mode Control of the X-33 with an Engine Failure

Ascent flight control of the X-3 is performed using two XRS-2200 linear aerospike engines. in addition to aerosurfaces. The baseline control algorithms are PID with gain scheduling. Flight control using an innovative method. Sliding Mode Control. is presented for nominal and engine failed modes of flight. An easy to implement, robust controller. requiring no reconfiguration or gain scheduling is demonstrated through high fidelity flight simulations. The proposed sliding mode controller utilizes a two-loop structure and provides robust. de-coupled tracking of both orientation angle command profiles and angular rate command profiles in the presence of engine failure, bounded external disturbances (wind gusts) and uncertain matrix of inertia. Sliding mode control causes the angular rate and orientation angle tracking error dynamics to be constrained to linear, de-coupled, homogeneous, and vector valued differential equations with desired eigenvalues. Conditions that restrict engine failures to robustness domain of the sliding mode controller are derived. Overall stability of a two-loop flight control system is assessed. Simulation results show that the designed controller provides robust, accurate, de-coupled tracking of the orientation angle command profiles in the presence of external disturbances and vehicle inertia uncertainties, as well as the single engine failed case. The designed robust controller will significantly reduce the time and cost associated with flying new trajectory profiles or orbits, with new payloads, and with modified vehicles

Shtessel, Yuri B.↗