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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
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NASA NTRS2019

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗
NASA NTRS2000

Statistics Analysis of the Uncertainties in Cloud Optical Depth Retrievals Caused by Three-Dimensional Radiative Effects

This paper presents a simple approach to estimate the uncertainties that arise in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth when the retrievals use one-dimensional radiative transfer theory for heterogeneous clouds that have variations in all three dimensions. For the first time, preliminary error bounds are set to estimate the uncertainty of cloud optical depth retrievals. These estimates can help us better understand the nature of uncertainties that three-dimensional effects can introduce into retrievals of this important product of the MODIS instrument. The probability distribution of resulting retrieval errors is examined through theoretical simulations of shortwave cloud reflection for a wide variety of cloud fields. The results are used to illustrate how retrieval uncertainties change with observable and known parameters, such as solar elevation or cloud brightness. Furthermore, the results indicate that a tendency observed in an earlier study, clouds appearing thicker for oblique sun, is indeed caused by three-dimensional radiative effects.

Varnai, Tamas↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Zaman, Kais↗
NASA NTRS1972

Spectroscopic and photometric observations of M supergiants in Carina.

Spectroscopic study of 30 Southern-Hemisphere M supergiants mostly in Carina in the blue and near-infrared, and photometrical study of these stars from 0.4 to 18 microns. The uncertainties in the determinations of interstellar extinction are discussed, and the spatial distribution of the M supergiants in the Carina arm is shown. The presence of the 11-micron excess attributed to silicate dust is a common feature. Stars of the same spectral type and luminosity class are remarkably homogeneous in their long-wave behavior. The silicate feature becomes more prominent in the more luminous stars and in stars of later spectral type. Four composite systems show little long-wave excess. The two VV Cephei objects have excesses probably produced by gas emission, and the other two have little or no excess - supporting the suggestion that the presence of the early star prohibits the formation of a dust envelope. Three stars - VY CMa, VX Sgr, and HD 9767 - appear to be extreme examples of stars with large excesses over the entire long-wave region. It is suggested that these objects are surrounded by large amounts of particulate material over a great range of distances from the stars.

Humphreys, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The EOLE experiment: Early results and current objectives

The EOLE experiment with 480 constant level balloons released in the Southern Hemisphere is described. Each balloon floating freely at approximately the 200 mb level, is a precise tracer of the horizontal motion of air masses, the accuracy of which is limited only by the laminated structure of the stratospheric flow, within an RMS uncertainty of 1.5 m/sec. The balloons were found after 2 months to distribute at random over the whole hemisphere outside the tropics, irrespective of their original launching site. Early results of Eulerian and Lagrangian averages of the EOLE wind data are given for describing the mean 200 mb zonal and meridional circulations. The effect of the small scale eddies of two-dimensional turbulence has been studied with respect to the relative eddy diffusion of pairs of balloons and the relative dispersion of triangular clusters. New estimates of the RMS divergence of the 200 mb flow are given, together with their scale dependence which was found to be a logarithmic law.

Morel, P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Eole experiment - Early results and current objectives.

The Eole experiment with 480 constant level balloons released in the Southern Hemisphere is described. Each balloon, floating freely at approximately the 200-mb level, is a precise tracer of the horizontal motion of air masses, the accuracy of which is limited only by the laminated structure of the stratospheric flow, within an rms uncertainty of 1.5 m/sec. The balloons were found after 2 months to distribute at random over the whole hemisphere outside the tropics, irrespective of their original launching site. Early results of Eulerian and Lagrangian averages of the Eole wind data are given for describing the mean 200-mb zonal and meridional circulations.

Morel, P.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Parametric studies with an atmospheric diffusion model that assesses toxic fuel hazards due to the ground clouds generated by rocket launches

Parametric studies were made with a multilayer atmospheric diffusion model to place quantitative limits on the uncertainty of predicting ground-level toxic rocket-fuel concentrations. Exhaust distributions in the ground cloud, cloud stabilized geometry, atmospheric coefficients, the effects of exhaust plume afterburning of carbon monoxide CO, assumed surface mixing-layer division in the model, and model sensitivity to different meteorological regimes were studied. Large-scale differences in ground-level predictions are quantitatively described. Cloud alongwind growth for several meteorological conditions is shown to be in error because of incorrect application of previous diffusion theory. In addition, rocket-plume calculations indicate that almost all of the rocket-motor carbon monoxide is afterburned to carbon dioxide CO2, thus reducing toxic hazards due to CO. The afterburning is also shown to have a significant effect on cloud stabilization height and on ground-level concentrations of exhaust products.

Stewart, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Observations of Oklahoma severe thunderstorms using airborne Doppler lidar

The NASA airborne Doppler lidar was successfully employed in obtaining detailed views of the horizontal wind fields near a complex of severe multicell thunderstorms in central Oklahoma on June 30, 1981. Despite uncertainties caused by inertial navigation errors, clear pictures of the relative reflectivity distributions, horizontal wind velocity, and velocity spectral width near the cloud base were obtained. The presence of numerous gust front vortices along the leading edge of the advancing storm outflow were noted which correspond to inflections in the shape of the gust front arcus cloud formation. Explanations for the observed vortical circulations and calculated vorticities are given.

Mccaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Discrete-time entropy formulation of optimal and adaptive control problems

The discrete-time version of the entropy formulation of optimal control of problems developed by G. N. Saridis (1988) is discussed. Given a dynamical system, the uncertainty in the selection of the control is characterized by the probability distribution (density) function which maximizes the total entropy. The equivalence between the optimal control problem and the optimal entropy problem is established, and the total entropy is decomposed into a term associated with the certainty equivalent control law, the entropy of estimation, and the so-called equivocation of the active transmission of information from the controller to the estimator. This provides a useful framework for studying the certainty equivalent and adaptive control laws.

Tsai, Yweting A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Supersonic Tunnel for Laser and Flow-Seeding Techniques

A supersonic wind tunnel with flow conditions of 3 lbm/s (1.5 kg/s) at a free-stream Mach number of 2.5 was designed and tested to provide an arena for future development work on laser measurement and flow-seeding techniques. The hybrid supersonic nozzle design that was used incorporated the rapid expansion method of propulsive nozzles while it maintained the uniform, disturbance-free flow required in supersonic wind tunnels. A viscous analysis was performed on the tunnel to determine the boundary layer growth characteristics along the flowpath. Appropriate corrections were then made to the contour of the nozzle. Axial pressure distributions were measured and Mach number distributions were calculated based on three independent data reduction methods. A complete uncertainty analysis was performed on the precision error of each method. Complex shock-wave patterns were generated in the flow field by wedges mounted near the roof and floor of the tunnel. The most stable shock structure was determined experimentally by the use of a focusing schlieren system and a novel, laser based dynamic shock position sensor. Three potential measurement regions for future laser and flow-seeding studies were created in the shock structure: deceleration through an oblique shock wave of 50 degrees, strong deceleration through a normal shock wave, and acceleration through a supersonic expansion fan containing 25 degrees of flow turning.

Bruckner, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A probabilistic fatigue analysis of multiple site damage

The variability in initial crack size and fatigue crack growth is incorporated in a probabilistic model that is used to predict the fatigue lives for unstiffened aluminum alloy panels containing multiple site damage (MSD). The uncertainty of the damage in the MSD panel is represented by a distribution of fatigue crack lengths that are analytically derived from equivalent initial flaw sizes. The variability in fatigue crack growth rate is characterized by stochastic descriptions of crack growth parameters for a modified Paris crack growth law. A Monte-Carlo simulation explicitly describes the MSD panel by randomly selecting values from the stochastic variables and then grows the MSD cracks with a deterministic fatigue model until the panel fails. Different simulations investigate the influences of the fatigue variability on the distributions of remaining fatigue lives. Six cases that consider fixed and variable conditions of initial crack size and fatigue crack growth rate are examined. The crack size distribution exhibited a dominant effect on the remaining fatigue life distribution, and the variable crack growth rate exhibited a lesser effect on the distribution. In addition, the probabilistic model predicted that only a small percentage of the life remains after a lead crack develops in the MSD panel.

Rohrbaugh, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Toward estimation of H(sub 0) from VLBI observations of the gravitational lens system 0957+561

We have analyzed two epochs of 6 cm very long base interferometry (VLBI) observations of the two brightest images, A and B, of the gravitationally lensed quasar 0957+561 in a search for correlated structural evolution from which to estimate delta tau(sub BA), the difference in propagation time for light traveling between the quasar and Earth along the paths corresponding to these two images. However, we detected only marginal increases in the separation between the core and the innermost jet component in each image over the 2 year interval 1987-1989. Because monitoring image brightness variations has since led to apparently reliable estimates of delta tau(sub BA), we intend to use spatial variations in the relative magnification field across the extent of the images to constrain further the mass distribution of the lens, which is now the principal contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of H(sub 0) from this lens system.

Campbell, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Aerosol effects and corrections in the Halogen Occultation Experiment

The eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991 increased stratospheric aerosol loading by a factor of 30, affecting chemistry, radiative transfer, and remote measurements of the stratosphere. The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instrument on board Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) makes measurements globally for inferring profiles of NO2, H2O, O3, HF, HCl, CH4, NO, and temperature in addition to aerosol extinction at five wavelengths. Understanding and removing the aerosol extinction is essential for obtaining accurate retrievals from the radiometer channels of NO2, H2O and O3 in the lower stratosphere since these measurements are severely affected by contaminant aerosol absorption. If ignored, aerosol absorption in the radiometer measurements is interpreted as additional absorption by the target gas, resulting in anomalously large mixing ratios. To correct the radiometer measurements for aerosol effects, a retrieved aerosol extinction profile is extrapolated to the radiometer wavelengths and then included as continuum attenuation. The sensitivity of the extrapolation to size distribution and composition is small for certain wavelength combinations, reducing the correction uncertainty. The aerosol corrections extend the usable range of profiles retrieved from the radiometer channels to the tropopause with results that agree well with correlative measurements. In situations of heavy aerosol loading, errors due to aerosol in the retrieved mixing ratios are reduced to values of about 15, 25, and 60% in H2O, O3, and NO2, respectively, levels that are much less than the correction magnitude.

Hervig, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Electron transport and energy degradation in the ionosphere: Evaluation of the numerical solution, comparison with laboratory experiments and auroral observations

Auroral electron transport calculations are a critical part of auroral models. We evaluate a numerical solution to the transport and energy degradation problem. The numerical solution is verified by reproducing simplified problems to which analytic solutions exist, internal self-consistency tests, comparison with laboratory experiments of electron beams penetrating a collision chamber, and by comparison with auroral observations, particularly the emission ratio of the N2 second positive to N2(+) first negative emissions. Our numerical solutions agree with range measurements in collision chambers. The calculated N(2)2P to N2(+)1N emission ratio is independent of the spectral characteristics of the incident electrons, and agrees with the value observed in aurora. Using different sets of energy loss cross sections and different functions to describe the energy distribution of secondary electrons that emerge from ionization collisions, we discuss the uncertainties of the solutions to the electron transport equation resulting from the uncertainties of these input parameters.

Lummerzheim, D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

Datta, Koushik↗
NASA NTRS2012

Constraints on the Galactic Halo Dark Matter from Fermi-LAT Diffuse Measurements

We have performed an analysis of the diffuse gamma-ray emission with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) in the Milky Way halo region, searching for a signal from dark matter annihilation or decay. In the absence of a robust dark matter signal, constraints are presented. We consider both gamma rays produced directly in the dark matter annihilation/decay and produced by inverse Compton scattering of the e+/e− produced in the annihilation/decay. Conservative limits are derived requiring that the dark matter signal does not exceed the observed diffuse gamma-ray emission. A second set of more stringent limits is derived based on modeling the foreground astrophysical diffuse emission using the GALPROP code. Uncertainties in the height of the diffusive cosmic-ray halo, the distribution of the cosmic-ray sources in the Galaxy, the index of the injection cosmic-ray electron spectrum, and the column density of the interstellar gas are taken into account using a profile likelihood formalism, while the parameters governing the cosmic-ray propagation have been derived from fits to local cosmic-ray data. The resulting limits impact the range of particle masses over which dark matter thermal production in the early universe is possible, and challenge the interpretation of the PAMELA/Fermi-LAT cosmic ray anomalies as the annihilation of dark matter.

DIFFUSE MEASUREMENTS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design

UQ↗