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At least 379 records · Page 21

Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Proposed Schematics and Modeling Results for a Lunar Portable Life Support System

The Constellation Space Suit Element (CSSE) is an integrated assembly made up of primarily a Pressure Garment System (PGS) and a Portable Life Support System (PLSS). The PLSS is further composed of an oxygen (O2) subsystem, a ventilation subsystem, and a thermal subsystem. This paper baselines a detailed schematic of the CSSE PLSS to provide a basis for current and future CSSE PLSS development efforts. Both context diagrams and detailed schematics describe the hardware components and overall functions for all three of the PLSS subsystems. Additionally, PLSS functions are presented for multiple operational scenarios as follows: 1) Nominal Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Mode; 2) Umbilical Modes; a) No Recharge, b) With Recharge; 3) Decompression Sickness (DCS) Treatment Mode; 4) Buddy Mode; 5) Secondary O2 Modes; a) Helmet Purge; b) Suit Purge; c) Operational; and 5) PLSS Removed Umbilical Mode. A performance modeling effort is being performed to provide a preliminary confirmation of this layout and the current state of the thermal hydraulic modeling efforts being conducted for the PLSS is presented. The goal of these efforts is to provide realistic simulations of the PLSS under various modes of operation. Modeling approaches and assumptions are discussed as well as component model descriptions. Results from the models are included that show PLSS operations at steady-state and transient conditions. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are offered that summarize results, identify PLSS design weaknesses uncovered during review of the analysis results, and propose areas for improvement to increase model fidelity and accuracy.

Conger, Bruce↗

The Governing Processes and Timescales of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport and its Contribution to Ozone in the Arctic Troposphere

We used the seasonality of a combination of atmospheric trace gases and idealized tracers to examine stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and its influence on tropospheric composition in the Arctic. Maximum stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of CFCs and O3 occurs in April as driven by the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) occurs predominantly between 40 deg N to 80 deg N with stratospheric influx in the mid-latitudes (30-70 deg N) accounting for 67.81 percent of the air of stratospheric origin in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Transport from the lower stratosphere to the lower troposphere (LT) takes three months on average, one month to cross the tropopause, the second month to travel from the upper troposphere (UT) to the middle troposphere (MT), and the third month to reach the LT. During downward transport, the seasonality of a trace gas can be greatly impacted by wet removal and chemistry. A comparison of idealized tracers with varying lifetimes suggests that when initialized with the same concentrations and seasonal cycles at the tropopause, trace gases that have shorter lifetimes display lower concentrations, smaller amplitudes, and earlier seasonal maxima during transport to the LT. STE contributes to O3 in the Arctic troposphere directly from the transport of O3 and indirectly from the transport of NOy . Direct transport of O3 from the stratosphere accounts for 78 percent of O3 in the Arctic UT with maximum contributions occurring from March to May. The stratospheric contribution decreases significantly in the MT/LT (20.25 percent of total O3) and shows a very weak March.April maximum. Our NOx budget analysis in the Arctic UT shows that during spring and summer, the stratospheric injection of NO y-rich air increases NOx concentrations above the 20 pptv threshold level, thereby shifting the Arctic UT from a regime of net photochemical ozone loss to one of net production with rates as high as +16 ppbv/month.

Liang, Q.↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Probabilistic vibration analysis of nearly periodic structures

A disordered structure with weakly coupled subsystems has localized modes with the vibratory energy concentrated in one part of the mode shape. The localization of modes may significantly affect the forced vibration response, increasing the maximum vibration amplitude dramatically in some cases. It is the scope of this paper to study the forced vibration of nearly periodic systems consisting of almost identical substructures and to analyze their free and forced dynamic responses probabilistically. It is shown that the sensitivity of the forced response to the degree of localization depends on a combination of the symmetry of the mode, which is excited, and the phase difference between the forces acting on each substructure. These results might explain the range of contrasting conclusions of earlier publications on the effects of forced response on mistuned structures. A probabilistic analysis of the free and forced responses of a nearly periodic structure is shown to be useful in the design of structures that are sensitive to the degree of localization. The results of the probabilistic analysis are verified using Monte Carlo simulation.

Hamade, Karen S.↗

Interpreting internal consistency of DES measurements

ABSTRACT Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between data sets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. This work examines evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best-fitting DES-Y1 ΛCDM cosmology. Secondly, we show the behaviour of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the LCDM analysis. We find that the evidence ratio of noise realizations generated at all confidence levels was biased towards agreement and show, with a modified gravity model, that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by prior effects in unlike cosmological models, concluding that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement. Boundary effects can also influence conclusions about the inconsistency induced by modified gravity, even in a noiseless data vector simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LoVoCCS. I. Survey Introduction, Data Processing Pipeline, and Early Science Results

We present the Local Volume Complete Cluster Survey (LoVoCCS; we pronounce it as "low-vox" or "law-vox," with stress on the second syllable), an NSF's National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory survey program that uses the Dark Energy Camera to map the dark matter distribution and galaxy population in 107 nearby (0.03 < z < 0.12) X-ray luminous ([0.1–2.4 keV] L X500 > 10 44 erg s –1 ) galaxy clusters that are not obscured by the Milky Way. The survey will reach Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1–2 depth (for galaxies r = 24.5, i = 24.0, signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) > 20; u = 24.7, g = 25.3, z = 23.8, S/N > 10) and conclude in ~2023 (coincident with the beginning of LSST science operations), and will serve as a zeroth-year template for LSST transient studies. We process the data using the LSST Science Pipelines that include state-of-the-art algorithms and analyze the results using our own pipelines, and therefore the catalogs and analysis tools will be compatible with the LSST. We demonstrate the use and performance of our pipeline using three X-ray luminous and observation-time complete LoVoCCS clusters: A3911, A3921, and A85. A3911 and A3921 have not been well studied previously by weak lensing, and we obtain similar lensing analysis results for A85 to previous studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determination of the Kinematics of the Qweak Experiment and Investigation of an Atomic Hydrogen Moller Polarimeter

The Q weak experiment has tested the Standard Model through making a precise measurement of the weak charge of the proton ($Q^p_W$). This was done through measuring the parity-violating asymmetry for polarized electrons scattering off of unpolarized protons. The parity-violating asymmetry measured is directly proportional to the four-momentum transfer ($Q^2$) from the electron to the proton. The extraction of $Q^p_W$ from the measured asymmetry requires a precise $Q^2$ determination. The Q weak experiment had a $Q^2$ = 24.8 ± 0.1 m(GeV 2 ) which achieved the goal of an uncertainty of <= 0.5%. From the measured asymmetry and $Q^2$, $Q^p_W$ was determined to be 0.0719 ± 0.0045, which is in good agreement with the Standard Model prediction. This puts a 7.5 TeV lower limit on possible "new physics". This dissertation describes the analysis of Q^2 for the Q weak experiment. Future parity-violating electron scattering experiments similar to the Q weak experiment will measure asymmetries to high precision in order to test the Standard Model. These measurements will require the beam polarization to be measured to sub-0.5% precision. Presently the electron beam polarization is measured through Moller scattering off of a ferromagnetic foil or through using Compton scattering, both of which can have issues reaching this precision. A novel Atomic Hydrogen Moller Polarimeter has been proposed as a non-invasive way to measure the polarization of an electron beam via Moller scattering off of polarized monatomic hydrogen gas. This dissertation describes the development and initial analysis of a Monte Carlo simulation of an Atomic Hydrogen Moller Polarimeter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Constraining Dark Matter Models from a Combined Analysis of Milky Way Satellites with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Satellite galaxies of the Milky Way are among the most promising targets for dark matter searches in gamma rays. We present a search for dark matter consisting of weakly interacting massive particles, applying a joint likelihood analysis to 10 satellite galaxies with 24 months of data of the Fermi Large Area Telescope. No dark matter signal is detected. Including the uncertainty in the dark matter distribution, robust upper limits are placed on dark matter annihilation cross sections. The 95% confidence level upper limits range from about 10(exp -26) cm(exp 3) / s at 5 GeV to about 5 X 10(exp -23) cm(exp 3)/ s at 1 TeV, depending on the dark matter annihilation final state. For the first time, using gamma rays, we are able to rule out models with the most generic cross section (approx 3 X 10(exp -26) cm(exp 3)/s for a purely s-wave cross section), without assuming additional boost factors.

Ackermann, M.↗

Comparing Dark Energy Survey and HST –CLASH observations of the galaxy cluster RXC J2248.7-4431: implications for stellar mass versus dark matter

We derive the stellar mass fraction in the galaxy cluster RXC J2248.7-4431 observed with the Dark Energy Survey (DES) during the Science Verification period. We compare the stellar mass results from DES (five filters) with those from the Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Lensing And Supernova Survey (CLASH; 17 filters). When the cluster spectroscopic redshift is assumed, we show that stellar masses from DES can be estimated within 25 per cent of CLASH values. We compute the stellar mass contribution coming from red and blue galaxies, and study the relation between stellar mass and the underlying dark matter using weak lensing studies with DES and CLASH. An analysis of the radial profiles of the DES total and stellar mass yields a stellar-to-total fraction of f(star) = (6.8 +/- 1.7) x 10(-3) within a radius of r(200c) similar or equal to 2 Mpc. Our analysis also includes a comparison of photometric redshifts and star/galaxy separation efficiency for both data sets. We conclude that space-based small field imaging can be used to calibrate the galaxy properties in DES for the much wider field of view. The technique developed to derive the stellar mass fraction in galaxy clusters can be applied to the similar to 100 000 clusters that will be observed within this survey and yield important information about galaxy evolution.

Palmese, A.↗

Detecting Weak Spectral Lines in Interferometric Data through Matched Filtering

Modern radio interferometers enable observations of spectral lines with unprecedented spatial resolution and sensitivity. In spite of these technical advances, many lines of interest are still at best weakly detected and therefore necessitate detection and analysis techniques specialized for the low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) regime. Matched filters can leverage knowledge of the source structure and kinematics to increase sensitivity of spectral line observations. Application of the filter in the native Fourier domain improves S/N while simultaneously avoiding the computational cost and ambiguities associated with imaging, making matched filtering a fast and robust method for weak spectral line detection. We demonstrate how an approximate matched filter can be constructed from a previously observed line or from a model of the source, and we show how this filter can be used to robustly infer a detection significance for weak spectral lines. When applied to ALMA Cycle 2 observations of CH{sub 3}OH in the protoplanetary disk around TW Hya, the technique yields a ≈53% S/N boost over aperture-based spectral extraction methods, and we show that an even higher boost will be achieved for observations at higher spatial resolution. A Python-based open-source implementation of this technique is available under the MIT license at http://github.com/AstroChem/VISIBLE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Astronomy Commons Platform: A Deployable Cloud-based Analysis Platform for Astronomy

Abstract We present a scalable, cloud-based science platform solution designed to enable next-to-the-data analyses of terabyte-scale astronomical tabular data sets. The presented platform is built on Amazon Web Services (over Kubernetes and S3 abstraction layers), utilizes Apache Spark and the Astronomy eXtensions for Spark for parallel data analysis and manipulation, and provides the familiar JupyterHub web-accessible front end for user access. We outline the architecture of the analysis platform, provide implementation details and rationale for (and against) technology choices, verify scalability through strong and weak scaling tests, and demonstrate usability through an example science analysis of data from the Zwicky Transient Facility’s 1Bn+ light-curve catalog. Furthermore, we show how this system enables an end user to iteratively build analyses (in Python) that transparently scale processing with no need for end-user interaction. The system is designed to be deployable by astronomers with moderate cloud engineering knowledge, or (ideally) IT groups. Over the past 3 yr, it has been utilized to build science platforms for the DiRAC Institute, the ZTF partnership, the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration, and the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing, as well as for numerous short-term events (with over 100 simultaneous users). In a live demo instance, the deployment scripts, source code, and cost calculators are accessible. 4 4 http://hub.astronomycommons.org/

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Applications of the contravariant form of the Navier-Stokes equations

The contravariant Navier-Stokes equations in weak conservation form are well suited to certain fluid flow analysis problems. Three dimensional contravariant momentum equations may be used to obtain Navier-Stokes equations in weak conservation form on a nonplanar two dimensional surface with varying streamsheet thickness. Thus a three dimensional flow can be simulated with two dimensional equations to obtain a quasi-three dimensional solution for viscous flow. When the Navier-Stokes equations on the two dimensional nonplanar surface are transformed to a generalized body fitted mesh coordinate system, the resulting equations are similar to the equations for a body fitted mesh coordinate system on the Euclidean plane. Contravariant momentum components are also useful for analyzing compressible, three dimensional viscous flow through an internal duct by parabolic marching. This type of flow is efficiently analyzed by parabolic marching methods, where the streamwise momentum equation is uncoupled from the two crossflow momentum equations. This can be done, even for ducts with a large amount of turning, if the Navier-Stokes equations are written with contravariant components.

Katsanis, T.↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: weak lensing shape catalogue

ABSTRACT We present and characterize the galaxy shape catalogue from the first 3 yr of Dark Energy Survey (DES) observations, over an effective area of 4143 deg2 of the southern sky. We describe our data analysis process and our self-calibrating shear measurement pipeline metacalibration, which builds and improves upon the pipeline used in the DES Year 1 analysis in several aspects. The DES Year 3 weak-lensing shape catalogue consists of 100 204 026 galaxies, measured in the riz bands, resulting in a weighted source number density of neff = 5.59 gal arcmin−2 and corresponding shape noise σe = 0.261. We perform a battery of internal null tests on the catalogue, including tests on systematics related to the point spread function (PSF) modelling, spurious catalogue B-mode signals, catalogue contamination, and galaxy properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Injection efficiency of bound modes

Previous work on efficiency of light injection into the core of a fiber from a thin film and a bulk distribution of sources in the cladding have used the fields of a weakly guiding fiber. This approximation simplifies the analysis of the power efficiency by introducing universal values for the eigenvalues of different fibers with the same V-number, but cannot predict accurately the behavior of the injected light into a fiber with arbitrary differences in indices of refraction. The exact field solution was used in the expressions of the power efficiency, p sub eff, and its behavior as a function of the fiber parameter was analyzed. Weakly guiding results obtained previously are confirmed. However, P sub eff does not always increase with the V-number but with the difference in the indices of refraction, eta sub core-eta sub clad. For the bulk distribution it was found that P sub eff increases with the wavelength, lambda, and decreases with the fiber core radius, a, i.e., it decreases with the V-number. However, for the thin film, the P sub eff remains almost constant with lambda and the fiber core radius.

Egalon, Claudio Oliveira↗

Chiral effective field theory analysis of hadronic parity violation in few-nucleon systems

Weak interactions between quarks induce a parity-violating (PV) component in the nucleon-nucleon potential, whose effects are currently being studied in a number of experiments involving few-nucleon systems. In the present work, we reconsider the derivation of this PV component within a chiral effective field theory (${\chi }$EFT) framework. Purpose: The objectives of the present work are twofold. The first is to perform a detailed analysis of the PV nucleon-nucleon potential up to next-to-next-to-leading (N2LO) order in the chiral expansion, in particular, by determining the number of independent low-energy constants (LECs) at N2LO. The second objective is to investigate PV effects in a number of few-nucleon observables, including the $\vec{p}$-p longitudinal asymmetry, the neutron spin rotation in n-p and n-d scattering, and the longitudinal asymmetry in the 3 He( $\vec{n}$,p) 3 H charge-exchange reaction. Methods: The ${\chi }$EFT PV potential includes one-pion-exchange, two-pion-exchange, and contact terms as well as 1/M (M being the nucleon mass) nonstatic corrections. Dimensional regularization is used to renormalize pion loops. The wave functions for the A=2-4 nuclei are obtained by using strong two- and three-body potentials also derived, for consistency, from ${\chi }$EFT. In the case of the A=3-4 systems, systems, the wave functions are computed by expanding on a hyperspherical harmonics functions basis. Results: We find that the PV potential at N2LO depends on six LECs: the pion-nucleon PV coupling constant h$1\atop{π}$ and five parameters multiplying contact interactions. An estimate for the range of values of the various LECs is provided by using available experimental data, and these values are used to obtain predictions for the other PV observables. Conclusions: The ${\chi }$EFT approach provides a very satisfactory framework to analyze PV effects in few-nucleon systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗