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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Detectable ship tracks account for just 5% of aerosol indirect forcing from ship emissions

Ship emissions are a major source of aerosols over oceans, affecting both air quality and energy balance of the climate. However, estimates of their climate forcing diverge between studies relying on visible ship-tracks and those based on models. Here we show that forcing due to visible ship-tracks accounts for just 5% of the total forcing over the southeast Atlantic shipping-lane. Most forcing from ship emissions comes from aerosols that do not form detectable ship-tracks. They are only tips of the iceberg. We make three forcing calculations, one bottom-up based on visible ship-tracks, one top-down based on spatial relationships, and a hybrid approach that combines top-down or model estimated cloud droplet number concentration changes and cloud adjustments. Although the forcing based on machine learning detected ship tracks is an order of magnitude greater than prior results using manually detected ship-tracks, it remains only 5% of that inferred by top-down or cloud adjustment based methods for pre-2020 shipping. The top-down and the combined cloud adjustments methods show similar forcing for the post-2020 reduction in ships’ sulfur emission, although the methods have important regional differences in cloud adjustments that need further investigation. Our results reconcile a long-standing discrepancy in the literature and have important implications for aerosol indirect forcing and marine cloud brightening.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

Unveiling sectoral coupling for resilient electrification of the transportation sector

Abstract Electrifying the transportation sector is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and offers numerous benefits including increased energy efficiency, lower total ownership costs, enhanced national energy security, and improved air quality. Despite the availability of necessary technologies, fully integrating the transportation and electricity sectors presents challenges in understanding all benefits and risks. Previous studies have not highlighted the role of coupling between these sectors. To better understand this coupling, this work reviews the structure of the current fossil-fuel-based transportation sector (including its dependence on the electricity sector) and case studies of its vulnerabilities to key risks. By adopting a systemic perspective, we uncover the indispensable interplay between the transportation and electricity sectors, shedding light on previously neglected dynamics. Leveraging the principles of grid architecture (GA), we introduce a hierarchical approach to assess vulnerabilities within the prevailing fuel-based transportation system and elucidate pathways for enhancement through electrification.

Mitra, Bhaskar↗

Near-canopy horizontal concentration heterogeneity of semivolatile oxygenated organic compounds and implications for 2-methyltetrols primary emissions

Semivolatile oxygenated organic compounds (SV-OVOCs) are important atmospheric species, in particular for the production and chemistry of atmospheric particulate matter and related impacts on air quality and climate. In this study, SV-OVOCs were collected in the horizontal plane of the roughness layer over the tropical forest in the central Amazon during the wet season of 2018. A sampler mounted to a copter-type, hovering unmanned aerial vehicle was used. Underlying the collection region, a plateau forest transitioned into a slope forest across several hundred meters. The concentrations of pinonic and pinic acids, which are monoterpene oxidation products, had no statistical difference over the two forests. By comparison, across the study period, differences in the concentration of 2-methyltetrols, which are products of isoprene oxidation, ranged from -70% to +480% over the two forests. The chemical lifetime of 2-methyltetrols in the atmosphere is sufficiently long that heterogeneity in the isoprene emission rate from the two forests followed by atmospheric oxidation does not explain the concentration heterogeneity of 2-methyltetrols. Standing waves and local meteorology also cannot account for the heterogeneity. Of the possibilities considered, the most plausible explanation is the direct emission from the forest of 2-methyltetrols produced through biological processes within the plants. Under this explanation, the rate of direct SV-OVOC emissions should be modulated by forest type and related environmental stressors. Direct emissions of SV-OVOCs should be more broadly considered for constraining and improving models of atmospheric composition, transport, and chemistry over tropical forests.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Haze processing of atmospheric particles during wintertime in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

The impacts of haze on visibility, air quality, and climate are not well quantified due to a lack of understanding of the evolution of the mixing state and phase state of atmospheric particles during haze processing. The variability of the mixing state of atmospheric particles contributes significantly to uncertainties associated with the estimated aerosol radiative forcing. We collected particle samples in January 2018 from the highly polluted Indo-Gangetic plain during hazy conditions to study haze-processed particles. Single particle analysis using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy techniques revealed an abundance (40–70% by number) of potassium-rich sulfate particles from biomass-burning influenced smoke. Tilted view imaging showed that most of the organic particles that had inorganic potassium and sulfate inclusions were liquid-like while those without inclusions were more semi-solid. High-resolution mass spectrometry analysis revealed a significant presence of organosulfates and nitroxy-organosulfates in the morning samples (24%) compared to the afternoon samples (9%), despite higher relative humidity in the afternoon. Overall, our results highlight the significant contribution of both organic and inorganic sulfate to the total particulate sulfur budget during haze processing in winter, when anthropogenic emissions such as household burning, agricultural burning, and vehicular emissions are major contributors to particle mass.

Mathai, Susan [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

Range Hood Use and Effectiveness in Reducing Indoor Air Pollution During Gas and Induction Cooking

The Cooking Energy and Ventilation Impacts on Children's Asthma (CEVICA) study measured cooking frequency, range hood use, indoor air quality and respiratory health indicators of children with asthma living in homes with gas stoves in California's San Joaquin Valley. The study installed electric induction stoves and repeated measurements over three 2-week intensive periods, at baseline and at the end of two consecutive 3-month study phases. Stove replacements occurred at the start of Phase 1 or Phase 2 by random assignment. There were 4184 cooking events identified by automated analysis of time-series data from temperature sensors mounted above the cooktops and 1038 related range hood usage events detected from data recorded by anemometers, smart plugs, or motor loggers. Analysis of 1-minute resolved PM2.5 and NO 2 data identified and quantified 2685 PM 2.5 events and 2606 NO 2 events. Range hood use was characterized as a binary variable (>3 min vs. <3 min use). Range hood use was more common during cooking events associated with particle emissions and longer cooking durations. PM 2.5 concentrations during events with range hood use were comparable to those without use, which could result from limited effectiveness or if range hoods were preferentially used during higher-emission cooking scenarios. In homes with gas cooking, integrated NO 2 concentrations were about 45 percent higher during cooking events with no range hood use compared to those range hood use. The lowest pollutant levels were observed when the range hood operated for more than half of the cooking duration. These findings show that operation of venting range hood during cooking can substantially reduce short-term indoor exposure NO 2 in homes with gas cooking.

Fang, Yi↗

Direct kinetic measurements and theoretical predictions of an isoprene-derived Criegee intermediate

Isoprene has the highest emission into Earth’s atmosphere of any nonmethane hydrocarbon. Atmospheric processing of alkenes, including isoprene, via ozonolysis leads to the formation of zwitterionic reactive intermediates, known as Criegee intermediates (CIs). Direct studies have revealed that reactions involving simple CIs can significantly impact the tropospheric oxidizing capacity, enhance particulate formation, and degrade local air quality. Methyl vinyl ketone oxide (MVK-oxide) is a four-carbon, asymmetric, resonance-stabilized CI, produced with 21 to 23% yield from isoprene ozonolysis, yet its reactivity has not been directly studied. We present direct kinetic measurements of MVK-oxide reactions with key atmospheric species using absorption spectroscopy. Direct UV-Vis absorption spectra from two independent flow cell experiments overlap with the molecular beam UV-Vis-depletion spectra reported recently [M. F. Vansco, B. Marchetti, M. I. Lester, J. Chem. Phys. 149, 44309 (2018)] but suggest different conformer distributions under jet-cooled and thermal conditions. Comparison of the experimental lifetime herein with theory indicates only the syn -conformers are observed; anti -conformers are calculated to be removed much more rapidly via unimolecular decay. We observe experimentally and predict theoretically fast reaction of syn -MVK-oxide with SO 2 and formic acid, similar to smaller alkyl-substituted CIs, and by contrast, slow removal in the presence of water. We determine products through complementary multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry, observing SO 3 and identifying organic hydroperoxide formation from reaction with SO 2 and formic acid, respectively. The tropospheric implications of these reactions are evaluated using a global chemistry and transport model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Revisiting particle dry deposition and its role in radiative effect estimates

Wet and dry deposition remove aerosols from the atmosphere, and these processes control aerosol lifetime and thus impact climate and air quality. Dry deposition is a significant source of aerosol uncertainty in global chemical transport and climate models. Dry deposition parameterizations in most global models were developed when few particle deposition measurements were available. However, new measurement techniques have enabled more size-resolved particle flux observations. We combined literature measurements with data that we collected over a grassland in Oklahoma and a pine forest in Colorado to develop a dry deposition parameterization. We find that relative to observations, previous parameterizations overestimated deposition of the accumulation and Aitken mode particles, and underestimated in the coarse mode. These systematic differences in observed and modeled accumulation mode particle deposition velocities are as large as an order of magnitude over terrestrial ecosystems. As accumulation mode particles form most of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the indirect radiative effect, this model-measurement discrepancy in dry deposition alters modeled CCN and radiative forcing. We present a revised observationally driven parameterization for regional and global aerosol models. Using this revised dry deposition scheme in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemical transport model, we find that global surface accumulation-mode number concentrations increase by 62% and enhance the global combined anthropogenic and natural aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m −2 . Our observationally constrained approach should reduce the uncertainty of particle dry deposition in global chemical transport models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH 3 , NO x , and N 2 O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO 2 e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗

Evaluation of a catalytically aided thermal regeneration method for quartz filter-based black carbon sensing

Black carbon (BC)–a strong indicator of diesel particulate matter and other sources of incomplete carbonaceous fuel combustion–is an important air pollutant that affects public health, yet low-cost sensors capable of long-term, autonomous BC monitoring remain underdeveloped. We report on the development and evaluation of a novel BC prototype sensor that integrates soot collection on a quartz filter, in-situ optical transmission measurement, and thermal filter regeneration. To enable regeneration at lower temperatures, we evaluated the catalytic effects of various alkali metal salts pre-applied to the filter. Among these, cesium carbonate (Cs 2 CO 3 ) exhibited the strongest catalytic activity, lowering the temperature required for complete BC removal by up to 190 °C and reducing energy consumption by more than 75% compared to that required for untreated filters. The catalytic effect persisted through 10 BC collection–regeneration cycles. These findings demonstrate the potential of catalytically aided thermal regeneration in BC sensors and suggest a pathway toward energy-efficient and reduced maintenance air quality monitoring suitable for distributed BC monitoring networks.

Tang, Xiaochen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Realistic operation of two residential cordwood-fired outdoor hydronic heater appliances—Part 3: Optical properties of black and brown carbon emissions

Residential biomass combustion is a source of carbonaceous aerosol. Inefficient combustion, particularly of solid fuels produces large quantities of black and brown carbon (BC and BrC). These particle types are important as they have noted effects on climate forcing and human health. One method of measuring these quantities is by measurement of aerosol light-absorption and scattering, which can be performed using an aethalometer and nephelometer, respectively. These instruments are widely deployed in the study of ambient air and are frequently used in air quality modeling and source apportionment studies. In this study, we will describe (1) a method for measuring primary BC and BrC emissions from two residential log-fired wood hydronic heaters and (2) the BC and BrC emission from these devices over a wide range of operating conditions, such as cold-starts, warm-starts, four different levels of output ranging from 15% to 100% maximum rated output, and periods of repeated cycling. The range in flue-gas BC concentrations, measured using an aethalometer at the 880 nanometer (nm) wavelength, were between 5.09 × 10 2 and 2.24 × 10 4 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m 3 ) while the scattering coefficient of the flue-gas, measured by a nephelometer at 880 nm, ranged between 2.20 × 10 3 and 8.56 × 10 5 inverse megameters (Mm –1 ). The BrC concentrations, measured using the 370 nm wavelength of an aethalometer, were between 9.10 × 10 1 and 3.56 × 10 4 µg/m 3 . The calculated Angstrom Absorption Exponent (AAE) of the flue-gas aerosol ranged between 1.54 and 3.63. Performing a comparison between the measured BC concentration and an external particulate matter (PM) concentration showed that overall BC makes up roughly a quarter of the PM emitted by either of the two appliances. Further for both appliances, the cold-start and the test phase immediately following it had the highest BC and BrC concentrations, the highest measured scattering coefficient, as well as a low AAE.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Observations of ozone, acyl peroxy nitrates, and their precursors during summer 2019 at Carlsbad Caverns National Park, New Mexico

Carlsbad Caverns National Park (CAVE) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is adjacent to the Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil and natural gas (O&G) production regions in the United States. Since 2018, ozone (O 3 ) at CAVE has frequently exceeded the 70 ppbv 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard. We examine the influence of regional emissions on O 3 formation using observations of O 3 , nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ), a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN). Elevated O 3 and its precursors are observed when the wind is from the southeast, the direction of the Permian Basin. We identify 13 days during the July 25 to September 5, 2019 study period when the maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O 3 exceeded 65 ppbv; MDA8 O 3 exceeded 70 ppbv on 5 of these days. The results of a positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis are used to identify and attribute source contributions of VOCs and NO x . On days when the winds are from the southeast, there are larger contributions from factors associated with primary O&G emissions; and, on high O 3 days, there is more contribution from factors associated with secondary photochemical processing of O&G emissions. The observed ratio of VOCs to NOx is consistently high throughout the study period, consistent with NO x -limited O 3 production. Finally, all high O 3 days coincide with elevated acyl peroxy nitrate abundances with PPN to PAN ratios > 0.15 ppbv ppbv -1 indicating that anthropogenic VOC precursors, and often alkanes specifically, dominate the photochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating internal moisture generation rates in recently constructed, occupied homes in the southeastern United States

Internal moisture generation (IMG), or moisture generated by building occupants via activities such as respiration, cooking, bathing, and cleaning, is a critical input required for design, analysis, and simulation of building enclosure and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Based on previously published values, ASHRAE Standard 160-2021 provides guidance for estimating IMG rates for moisture control design analysis, which is based on occupied home datasets collected in the 1980s and 1990s. Residential energy use simulation software also utilizes estimates for IMG for energy rating, energy analysis, and code compliance calculations, as specified in ANSI/RESNET/ICC Standard 301. Data quantifying IMG rates in newer homes is useful in determining the continued relevance of current design and simulation guidance, and whether the guidance represents conditions found in new housing stock. ASHRAE Research Project 1844, conducted by the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), a research institute of the University of Central Florida, estimated IMG rates in newer occupied homes built since 2013 in the southeastern US using a moisture balance model approach. Furthermore, the project obtained occupied home data in cooperation with a US Department of Energy Building America research project to characterize indoor air quality (IAQ) in newer US homes, along with presence, functionality, and occupant use of control measures. Full-scale laboratory homes operating with known IMG rates were used to validate a moisture balance model and quantify the accuracy of estimates obtained when the model is applied to data from occupied homes with unknown IMG rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm -2 decade -1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling the mechanism of temperature and water vapor modulation on ozone under a warming climate

Temperature and water vapor have been considered as important factors affecting ozone concentrations, however, their synergistic effect on ozone, as well as its response to a warming climate remains unclear. Here, numerical experiments with different combinations of climate and emissions highlighted opposite changes of annual ozone over the contiguous U.S. under scenarios with high vs. low ozone precursor emissions in the future with warming. Comparing the occurrence of heat waves on higher vs. lower ozone days, we found significant suppression of the heat wave exacerbation of ozone by anthropogenic emissions reductions. Variations of ozone with temperature (T) and water vapor (Q) over the western U.S. and southeastern U.S. in the simulations are clearly revealed through the construction of an O 3 -T-Q diagram. Based on the diagram, we further identified a T-dominant regime at higher temperatures where ozone increases with temperature increase, and a Q-dominant regime at lower temperatures where ozone decreases with temperature increase due to the negative effect of water vapor. With larger anthropogenic emission reductions, ozone may increase at a lower rate with temperature in the T-dominant regime, or even decrease with temperature in the Q-dominant regime. Our results show that with large emission reductions, substantial ozone pollution due to warming and increasing heat waves may be counteracted by water vapor, partly turning the ‘climate penalty’ on ozone into ‘climate benefit’. Hence controlling anthropogenic emissions may be an increasingly important strategy in a warmer and wetter climate to improve air quality and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗