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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Jump Algorithm Development for the GOES·R Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Current work on the lightning jump algorithm to be used in GOES‐R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)'s data stream is multifaceted due to the intricate interplay between the storm tracking, GLM proxy data, and the performance of the lightning jump itself. This work outlines the progress of the last year, where analysis and performance of the lightning jump algorithm with automated storm tracking and GLM proxy data were assessed using over 700 storms from North Alabama. The cases analyzed coincide with previous semi‐objective work performed using total lightning mapping array (LMA) measurements in Schultz et al. (2011). Analysis shows that key components of the algorithm (flash rate and sigma thresholds) have the greatest influence on the performance of the algorithm when validating using severe storm reports. Automated objective analysis using the GLM proxy data has shown probability of detection (POD) values around 60% with false alarm rates (FAR) around 73% using similar methodology to Schultz et al. (2011). However, when applying verification methods similar to those employed by the National Weather Service, POD values increase slightly (69%) and FAR values decrease (63%). The relationship between storm tracking and lightning jump has also been tested in a real‐time framework at NSSL. This system includes fully automated tracking by radar alone, real‐time LMA and radar observations and the lightning jump. Results indicate that the POD is strong at 65%. However, the FAR is significantly higher than in Schultz et al. (2011) (50‐80% depending on various tracking/lightning jump parameters) when using storm reports for verification. Given known issues with Storm Data, the performance of the real‐time jump algorithm is also being tested with high density radar and surface observations from the NSSL Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE).

Schultz. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Radar Detectability Studies of Slow and Small Zodiacal Dust Cloud Particles. III. The Role of Sodium and the Head Echo Size on the Probability of Detection

We present a path forward on a long-standing issue concerning the flux of small and slow meteoroids, which are believed to be the dominant portion of the incoming meteoric mass flux into the Earth's atmosphere. Such a flux, which is predicted by dynamical dust models of the Zodiacal Cloud, is not evident in ground-based radar observations. For decades this was attributed to the fact that the radars used for meteor observations lack the sensitivity to detect this population, due to the small amount of ionization produced by slow-velocity meteors. Such a hypothesis has been challenged by the introduction of meteor head echo (HE) observations with High Power and Large Aperture radars, in particular the Arecibo 430 MHz radar. Janches et al. developed a probabilistic approach to estimate the detectability of meteors by these radars and initially showed that, with the current knowledge of ablation and ionization, such particles should dominate the detected rates by one to two orders of magnitude compared to the actual observations. In this paper, we include results in our model from recently published laboratory measurements, which showed that (1) the ablation of Na is less intense covering a wider altitude range; and (2) the ionization probability, Beta ip, for Na atoms in the air is up to two orders of magnitude smaller for low speeds than originally believed. By applying these results and using a somewhat smaller size of the HE radar target we offer a solution that reconciles these observations with model predictions.

meteorites↗
NASA NTRS2019

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistics of equivalent width data and new oscillator strengths for Si II, Fe II, and Mn II

Equivalent width data from Copernicus and IUE appear to have an exponential, rather than a Gaussian distribution of errors. This is probably because there is one dominant source of error: the assignment of the background continuum shape. The maximum likelihood method of parameter estimation is presented for the case of exponential statistics, in enough generality for application to many problems. The method is applied to global fitting of Si II, Fe II, and Mn II oscillator strengths and interstellar gas parameters along many lines of sight. The new values agree in general with previous determinations but are usually much more tightly constrained. Finally, it is shown that care must be taken in deriving acceptable regions of parameter space because the probability contours are not generally ellipses whose axes are parallel to the coordinate axes.

Van Buren, Dave↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis Developed for Turbomachinery Components

Aeroelastic analyses for advanced turbomachines are being developed for use at the NASA Glenn Research Center and industry. However, these analyses at present are used for turbomachinery design with uncertainties accounted for by using safety factors. This approach may lead to overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of designing higher efficiency engines. An integration of the deterministic aeroelastic analysis methods with probabilistic analysis methods offers the potential to design efficient engines with fewer aeroelastic problems and to make a quantum leap toward designing safe reliable engines. In this research, probabilistic analysis is integrated with aeroelastic analysis: (1) to determine the parameters that most affect the aeroelastic characteristics (forced response and stability) of a turbomachine component such as a fan, compressor, or turbine and (2) to give the acceptable standard deviation on the design parameters for an aeroelastically stable system. The approach taken is to combine the aeroelastic analysis of the MISER (MIStuned Engine Response) code with the FPI (fast probability integration) code. The role of MISER is to provide the functional relationships that tie the structural and aerodynamic parameters (the primitive variables) to the forced response amplitudes and stability eigenvalues (the response properties). The role of FPI is to perform probabilistic analyses by utilizing the response properties generated by MISER. The results are a probability density function for the response properties. The probabilistic sensitivities of the response variables to uncertainty in primitive variables are obtained as a byproduct of the FPI technique. The combined analysis of aeroelastic and probabilistic analysis is applied to a 12-bladed cascade vibrating in bending and torsion. Out of the total 11 design parameters, 6 are considered as having probabilistic variation. The six parameters are space-to-chord ratio (SBYC), stagger angle (GAMA), elastic axis (ELAXS), Mach number (MACH), mass ratio (MASSR), and frequency ratio (WHWB). The cascade is considered to be in subsonic flow with Mach 0.7. The results of the probabilistic aeroelastic analysis are the probability density function of predicted aerodynamic damping and frequency for flutter and the response amplitudes for forced response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Calculation of Heavy Ion Inactivation and Mutation Rates in Radial Dose Model of Track Structure

In the track structure model, the inactivation cross section is found by summing an inactivation probability over all impact parameters from the ion to the sensitive sites within the cell nucleus. The inactivation probability is evaluated by using the dose response of the system to gamma rays and the radial dose of the ions and may be equal to unity at small impact parameters. We apply the track structure model to recent data with heavy ion beams irradiating biological samples of E. Coli, B. Subtilis spores, and Chinese hamster (V79) cells. Heavy ions have observed cross sections for inactivation that approach and sometimes exceed the geometric size of the cell nucleus. We show how the effects of inactivation may be taken into account in the evaluation of the mutation cross sections in the track structure model through correlation of sites for gene mutation and cell inactivation. The model is fit to available data for HPRT (hypoxanthine guanine phosphoribosyl transferase) mutations in V79 cells, and good agreement is found. Calculations show the high probability for mutation by relativistic ions due to the radial extension of ions track from delta rays. The effects of inactivation on mutation rates make it very unlikely that a single parameter such as LET (linear energy transfer) can be used to specify radiation quality for heavy ion bombardment.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Quantitative Measures for Software Independent Verification and Validation

As software is maintained or reused, it undergoes an evolution which tends to increase the overall complexity of the code. To understand the effects of this, we brought in statistics experts and leading researchers in software complexity, reliability, and their interrelationships. These experts' project has resulted in our ability to statistically correlate specific code complexity attributes, in orthogonal domains, to errors found over time in the HAL/S flight software which flies in the Space Shuttle. Although only a prototype-tools experiment, the result of this research appears to be extendable to all other NASA software, given appropriate data similar to that logged for the Shuttle onboard software. Our research has demonstrated that a more complete domain coverage can be mathematically demonstrated with the approach we have applied, thereby ensuring full insight into the cause-and-effects relationship between the complexity of a software system and the fault density of that system. By applying the operational profile we can characterize the dynamic effects of software path complexity under this same approach We now have the ability to measure specific attributes which have been statistically demonstrated to correlate to increased error probability, and to know which actions to take, for each complexity domain. Shuttle software verifiers can now monitor the changes in the software complexity, assess the added or decreased risk of software faults in modified code, and determine necessary corrections. The reports, tool documentation, user's guides, and new approach that have resulted from this research effort represent advances in the state of the art of software quality and reliability assurance. Details describing how to apply this technique to other NASA code are contained in this document.

Lee, Alice↗
NASA NTRS1985

Large-cell Monte Carlo renormalization of irreversible growth processes

Monte Carlo sampling is applied to a recently formulated direct-cell renormalization method for irreversible, disorderly growth processes. Large-cell Monte Carlo renormalization is carried out for various nonequilibrium problems based on the formulation dealing with relative probabilities. Specifically, the method is demonstrated by application to the 'true' self-avoiding walk and the Eden model of growing animals for d = 2, 3, and 4 and to the invasion percolation problem for d = 2 and 3. The results are asymptotically in agreement with expectations; however, unexpected complications arise, suggesting the possibility of crossovers, and in any case, demonstrating the danger of using small cells alone, because of the very slow convergence as the cell size b is extrapolated to infinity. The difficulty of applying the present method to the diffusion-limited-aggregation model, is commented on.

Nakanishi, H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Development of seal ring carbon-graphite materials (tasks 5, 6, and 7)

Carbon-graphite seal ring bodies for operation at air temperatures to 1300 F(704 C) were manufactured from three select formulations. Mechanical and thermal properties, porosities, and oxidation rates were measured. The results have shown that: (1) Major property improvements anticipated from the screening studies were not realized because of processing problems associated with the scale-up in material size and probable deterioration of a phenolic resin binder; (2) the mechanical properties of a phenolic resin-bonded, carbon-graphite material can be improved by applying high pressure during carbonization; and (3) the textile form of graphite fiber used as the minor filler component in a carbon-graphite material can beneficially affect mechanical properties.

Fechter, N. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Lambert, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Townsend coefficients for electron scattering over dielectric surfaces

A method for describing the probability of initiating flashover discharges across dielectric surfaces is presented in which a transport coefficient for electron multiplication similar to the Townsend coefficient used for gas discharges is defined. The coefficient is a function of the scaling parameter (charge released from the cathode)/(cathode-anode separation) and is also a measure of the growth of the sheath on the dielectric surface resulting from electron scattering. Results are discussed as to when the source of seed electrons does not necessarily depend upon field emission at the cathode-vacuum-dielectric triple point. For these conditions, there is a different functional dependence of flashover probability on voltage and geometry than when field emission provides the seed electrons. As a result, criteria previously used to predict flashover discharges may not apply.

Peck, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

An inquiry into computer understanding

The paper examines issues connected with the choice of the best method for representing and reasoning about common sense. McDermott (1978) has shown that a direct translation of common sense reasoning into logical form leads to insurmountable difficulties. It is shown, in the present work, that if Bayesian probability is used instead of logic as the language of such reasoning, none of the technical difficulties found in using logic arise. Bayesian inference is applied to a simple example of linguistic information to illustrate the potential of this type of inference for artificial intelligence.

Cheeseman, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1992

Partially coherent scattering in stellar chromospheres. II - The first-order escape probability method. III - A second-order escape probability method

Approximate analytic expressions are derived for resonance-line wing diagnostics, accounting for frequency redistribution effects, for homogeneous slabs, and slabs with a constant Planck function gradient. Resonance-line emission profiles from a simplified conceptual standpoint are described in order to elucidate the basic physical parameters of the line-forming layers prior to the performance of detailed numerical calculations. An approximate analytic expression is derived for the dependence on stellar surface gravity of the location of the Ca II and Mg II resonance-line profile peaks. An approximate radiative transfer equation using generalized second-order escape probabilities, applicable even in the presence of nearly coherent scattering in the damping wings of resonance lines, is derived. Approximate analytic solutions that can be applied in special regimes and achieve good agreement with accurate numerical results are found.

Gayley, K. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Tracking Object Existence From an Autonomous Patrol Vehicle

An autonomous vehicle patrols a large region, during which an algorithm receives measurements of detected potential objects within its sensor range. The goal of the algorithm is to track all objects in the region over time. This problem differs from traditional multi-target tracking scenarios because the region of interest is much larger than the sensor range and relies on the movement of the sensor through this region for coverage. The goal is to know whether anything has changed between visits to the same location. In particular, two kinds of alert conditions must be detected: (1) a previously detected object has disappeared and (2) a new object has appeared in a location already checked. For the time an object is within sensor range, the object can be assumed to remain stationary, changing position only between visits. The problem is difficult because the upstream object detection processing is likely to make many errors, resulting in heavy clutter (false positives) and missed detections (false negatives), and because only noisy, bearings-only measurements are available. This work has three main goals: (1) Associate incoming measurements with known objects or mark them as new objects or false positives, as appropriate. For this, a multiple hypothesis tracker was adapted to this scenario. (2) Localize the objects using multiple bearings-only measurements to provide estimates of global position (e.g., latitude and longitude). A nonlinear Kalman filter extension provides these 2D position estimates using the 1D measurements. (3) Calculate the probability that a suspected object truly exists (in the estimated position), and determine whether alert conditions have been triggered (for new objects or disappeared objects). The concept of a probability of existence was created, and a new Bayesian method for updating this probability at each time step was developed. A probabilistic multiple hypothesis approach is chosen because of its superiority in handling the uncertainty arising from errors in sensors and upstream processes. However, traditional target tracking methods typically assume a stationary detection volume of interest, whereas in this case, one must make adjustments for being able to see only a small portion of the region of interest and understand when an alert situation has occurred. To track object existence inside and outside the vehicle's sensor range, a probability of existence was defined for each hypothesized object, and this value was updated at every time step in a Bayesian manner based on expected characteristics of the sensor and object and whether that object has been detected in the most recent time step. Then, this value feeds into a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to determine the status of the object (suspected, confirmed, or deleted). Alerts are sent upon selected status transitions. Additionally, in order to track objects that move in and out of sensor range and update the probability of existence appropriately a variable probability detection has been defined and the hypothesis probability equations have been re-derived to accommodate this change. Unsupervised object tracking is a pervasive issue in automated perception systems. This work could apply to any mobile platform (ground vehicle, sea vessel, air vehicle, or orbiter) that intermittently revisits regions of interest and needs to determine whether anything interesting has changed.

Wolf, Michael↗