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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Optimization of direct air capture processes using reactive transport models of adsorption-desorption cycles

In this study, we develop and implement a reactive transport model in COMSOL Multiphysics® to address the challenges of direct air carbon capture. The model is validated against experimental data and used to simulate the cyclic steady state of the adsorption-desorption process. The optimization of this model is achieved through advanced trust-region methods integrated with Gaussian Processes. Key decision variables, including adsorption and desorption times, desorption temperature and pressure, input velocity, bed porosity, column length, and radius were optimized to minimize the capture cost. After optimization, a sensitivity analysis revealed the complex interplay between the decision variables and their effect on the specific energy and cost of removing the CO 2 . We optimized the capture cost while taking into account the trade-off between energy consumption and productivity. The resulting minimum capture cost was determined to be 265.2 $/t-CO 2 , which aligns with expected values reported in the literature. Numerical results suggest the effectiveness of the optimization strategies applied, and underscore the importance of simultaneous decision variable selection in improving the performance in direct air capture processes. We also extend the modeling approach to a 2D axisymmetric model to better visualize CO₂ uptake and temperature profiles, revealing significant radial gradients during the regeneration step. As a main drawback, this enhanced model comes with a computational cost approximately 40 times higher than that of the 1D model.

Adsorption-desorption process↗

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimating the joint distribution of rate parameters across multiple reactions in the absence of experimental data

Here, a procedure for determining the joint uncertainty of Arrhenius parameters across multiple combustion reactions of interest is demonstrated. This approach is capable of constructing the joint distribution of the Arrhenius parameters arising from the uncertain measurements performed in specific target experiments without having direct access to the underlying experimental data. The method involves constructing an ensemble of hypothetical data sets with summary statistics consistent with the available information reported by the experimentalists, followed by a fitting procedure that learns the structure of the joint parameter density across reactions using this consistent hypothetical data as evidence. The procedure is formalized in a Bayesian statistical framework, employing maximum-entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods and utilizing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore data and parameter spaces in a nested algorithm. We demonstrate the application of the method in the context of experiments designed to measure the rates of selected chain reactions in the H 2 -O 2 system and highlight the utility of this approach for revealing the critical correlations between the parameters within a single reaction and across reactions, as well as for maximizing consistency when utilizing rate parameter information in predictive combustion modeling of systems of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model-based and Model-free Designs for an Extended Continuous-time LQR with Exogenous Inputs

We present an extended linear quadratic regulator (LQR) design for continuous-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems in the presence of exogenous inputs. We first propose a model-based solution with cost minimization guarantees for states and inputs using dynamic programming (DP). The control law consists of a combination of the optimal state feedback and an additional optimal term dependent on the exogenous inputs. The control gains for the two components are obtained by solving a set of matrix differential equations. We provide these solutions for both finite horizons and steady-state cases. In the second part of the paper, we formulate a reinforcement learning (RL) based algorithm which does not need any model information except the input matrix, and can compute an approximate steady-state LQR gain using measurements of the states, the control inputs, and the exogenous inputs. Both model-based and data-driven optimal control algorithms are tested with a numerical example under different exogenous inputs showcasing the effectiveness of the designs.

Mukherjee, Sayak↗

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. Here, our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards a predictive, physics-based friction model for the dynamics of jointed structures

Bolted connections are ubiquitous in mechanical designs and pose a significant challenge to understanding and predicting the vibration response of assembled structures. The present paper develops a physics-based rough contact model of the frictional interactions within a joint. This model sums over the probable interactions of asperities – defined as locally maximum surface features – to determine the contact forces. Here, the tangential contact forces vary smoothly between sticking and slipping and allow the model to better capture the qualitative trends of experimental amplitude dependent frequency and damping than previous studies. Furthermore, the novel model is generalized to allow for arbitrarily varying normal pressure including potential separation to better represent the interfacial dynamics. This includes developing a new, computationally tractable approximation to the analytical Mindlin partial slip solution for tangential loading of contacting spheres. Further, the results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing the as-built topology of the interface, the plastic behavior of the contacting asperities, the relevant length scale of asperities, and the eccentricity of asperities. A predictive friction coefficient based on plasticity provides a poor match to experiments, so fitting the friction coefficient is also considered. Numerical results are compared to experiments on the Brake-Reuß Beam to assess the predictive potential of the models. While blind predictions over-predict the slip limit, the current model presents a significant improvement in physics-based modeling and highlights areas for ongoing research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volume Flow Rate Estimation for Small Explosions at Mt. Etna, Italy, From Acoustic Waveform Inversion

Rapid assessment of the volume and the rate at which gas and pyroclasts are injected into the atmosphere during volcanic explosions is key to effective eruption hazard mitigation. Here, we use data from a dense infrasound network deployed in 2017 on Mt. Etna, Italy, to estimate eruptive volume flow rates (VFRs) during small gas-and-ash explosions. We use a finite-difference time-domain approximation to compute the acoustic Green's functions and perform a full waveform inversion for a multipole source, combining monopole and horizontal dipole terms. The inversion produces realistic estimates of VFR, on the order of 4 × 10 4 m 3 /s and well-defined patterns of source directivity. This is the first application of acoustic waveform inversion at Mt. Etna. Our results demonstrate that acoustic waveform inversion is a mature and robust tool for assessment of source parameters and holds potential as a tool to provide rapid estimates of VFR in near real time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A minimal model of self-sustaining turbulence

In this work, we examine the turbulence maintained in a Restricted Nonlinear (RNL) model of plane Couette flow. This model is a computationally efficient approximation of the second order statistical state dynamics obtained by partitioning the flow into a streamwise averaged mean flow and perturbations about that mean, a closure referred to herein as the RNL{sub ∞} model. The RNL model investigated here employs a single member of the infinite ensemble that comprises the covariance of the RNL{sub ∞} dynamics. The RNL system has previously been shown to support self-sustaining turbulence with a mean flow and structural features that are consistent with direct numerical simulations (DNS). Regardless of the number of streamwise Fourier components used in the simulation, the RNL system’s self-sustaining turbulent state is supported by a small number of streamwise varying modes. Remarkably, further truncation of the RNL system’s support to as few as one streamwise varying mode can suffice to sustain the turbulent state. The close correspondence between RNL simulations and DNS that has been previously demonstrated along with the results presented here suggest that the fundamental mechanisms underlying wall-turbulence can be analyzed using these highly simplified RNL systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

First-principles Hubbard U approach for small molecule binding in metal-organic frameworks

We apply first-principles approaches with Hubbard U corrections for calculation of small molecule binding energetics to open-shell transition metal atoms in metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). Using density functional theory with van der Waals dispersion-corrected functionals, we determine Hubbard U values ab initio through an established linear response procedure for M-MOF-74, for a number of different metal centers (M = Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, and Cu). While our ab initio U values differ from those used in previous work, we show that they result in lattice parameters and electronic contributions to CO{sub 2}-MOF binding energies that lead to excellent agreement with experiments and previous results, yielding lattice parameters within 3%. In addition, U-dependent calculations for an example system, Co-MOF-74, suggest that the CO{sub 2} binding energy grows monotonically with the value of Hubbard U, with the binding energy shifting 4 kJ/mol (or 0.041 eV) over the range of U = 0-5.4 eV. These results provide insight into an approximate but computationally efficient means for calculation of small molecule binding energies to open-shell transition metal atoms in MOFs and suggest that the approach can be predictive with good accuracy, independent of the cations used and the availability of experimental data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evolution of homologous recombination rates across bacteria

Bacteria are nonsexual organisms but are capable of exchanging DNA at diverse degrees through homologous recombination. Intriguingly, the rates of recombination vary immensely across lineages where some species have been described as purely clonal and others as “quasi-sexual.” However, estimating recombination rates has proven a difficult endeavor and estimates often vary substantially across studies. It is unclear whether these variations reflect natural variations across populations or are due to differences in methodologies. Consequently, the impact of recombination on bacterial evolution has not been extensively evaluated and the evolution of recombination rate—as a trait—remains to be accurately described. Here, we developed an approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation that integrates multiple signals of recombination to estimate recombination rates. We inferred the rate of recombination of 162 bacterial species and one archaeon and tested the robustness of our approach. Our results confirm that recombination rates vary drastically across bacteria; however, we found that recombination rate—as a trait—is conserved in several lineages but evolves rapidly in others. Although some traits are thought to be associated with recombination rate (e.g., GC-content), we found no clear association between genomic or phenotypic traits and recombination rate. Overall, our results provide an overview of recombination rate, its evolution, and its impact on bacterial evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic inference of reaction rate parameters from summary statistics

Here, this investigation tackles the probabilistic parameter estimation problem involving the Arrhenius parameters for the rate coefficient of the chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. This is achieved in a Bayesian inference framework that uses indirect data from the literature in the form of summary statistics by approximating the maximum entropy solution with the aid of approximate bayesian computation. The summary statistics include nominal values and uncertainty factors of the rate coefficient, obtained from shock-tube experiments performed at various initial temperatures. The Bayesian framework allows for the incorporation of uncertainty in the rate coefficient of a secondary reaction, namely OH + H 2 → H 2 O + H, resulting in a consistent joint probability density on Arrhenius parameters for the two rate coefficients. It also allows for uncertainty quantification in numerical ignition predictions while conforming with the published summary statistics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗