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At least 397 records · Page 22

Bottom-water oxygenation and environmental change in Santa Monica Basin, southern California during the last 22 kyr

The Southern California Borderland (SCB) is a region that experiences strong natural variations in bottom water oxygen and pH. Here, we use marine sediments from the Santa Monica Basin (SMB) to reconstruct environmental conditions and changes in the basin's bottom water oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present, and compare the records to the adjacent Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) and Santa Lucia Slope (SLS). High-resolution records of benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopes (δ 18 O and δ 13 C), benthic foraminiferal assemblages, and bulk sedimentary organic matter geochemistry records exhibit major changes associated with late Quaternary millennial-scale global climate oscillations. Our data show the dominance of low-oxygen benthic foraminifera assemblages during warm intervals, and assemblages representing higher dissolved oxygen during cooler intervals, as also seen in SBB and SLS. But, our record shows a stronger and longer-lasting oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) between the end of the Bølling-Allerød (B-A) and the Early Holocene (including the Younger Dryas) than at neighboring sites, indicated by dominance of Bolivina tumida (characteristic of major hypoxia) in the assemblage. The middle to late Holocene (from ~ 8.8 to 0 ka) had weaker hypoxia than the early Holocene, with assemblages mainly composed of Bolivina argentea and Uvigerina peregrina. The SMB remains mostly slightly low in oxygen throughout the studied interval, with differences in the degree of hypoxia relative to SBB and SLS (especially from the B-A to the Early Holocene) likely due to its greater depth and its more southern geographic position and therefore decreased exposure to North Pacific Intermediate Water current. Regional effects, such as changing intermediate water source and/or changing ventilation (oxygenation) of the intermediate water source, also affect SMB deep water. Our analysis utilizing parallel geochemical and micropaleontological records brings new insights into bottom water and climate conditions in SMB, indicating regional similarities and differences with adjacent basins, and provides insight into the causes for changes in bottom water oxygenation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonality and Declining Intensity of Methane Emissions from the Permian and Nearby US Oil and Gas Basins

We quantify weekly methane emissions and trends from oil and gas production in the US Permian Basin for 2019-2023, and in nearby basins for 2022-2023, by analytical inversion of Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations with the Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) at 25 km resolution. Permian oil and gas emissions averaged 4.0 ± 1.1 Tg a-1 over 2019-2023, with large seasonal variation but little interannual variability. Methane intensity fell from 5.2 to 3.2% as production surged. Intensity in the New Mexico Permian fell from 4.5 to 2.1%, approaching the state's 2026 target of <2%. Emissions were on average 50 ± 10% higher in winter than summer, which we corroborate with Permian Basin Tower Network measurements, Insight M aircraft data, and GHGSat satellite observations. This seasonality may be driven in part by higher winter emissions from liquid storage tanks due to decreased separator efficiency in cold conditions. Similar but weaker seasonality along with decreasing emissions and intensities is found in weekly inversions for the Anadarko, Barnett, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville basins in 2022-2023. Our work suggests that better weatherization of oil and gas facilities could significantly reduce methane emissions.

Permian↗

Advancing Diagnostic Model Evaluation to Better Understand Water Shortage Mechanisms in Institutionally Complex River Basins

Abstract Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining the movement of water and the human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that pairs exploratory modeling with global sensitivity analysis to enhance our ability to make inferences on water scarcity vulnerabilities in institutionally complex river basins. Diagnostic evaluation of models representing institutionally complex river basins with many stakeholders poses significant challenges. First, it needs to exploit a large and diverse suite of simulations to capture important human‐natural system interactions as well as institutionally aware behavioral mechanisms. Second, it needs to have performance metrics that are consequential and draw on decision‐relevant model outputs that adequately capture the multisector concerns that emerge from diverse basin stakeholders. We demonstrate the proposed model diagnostic framework by evaluating how potential interactions between changing hydrologic conditions and human demands influence the frequencies and durations of water shortages of varying magnitudes experienced by hundreds of users in a subbasin of the Colorado River. We show that the dominant factors shaping these effects vary both across users and, for an individual user, across percentiles of shortage magnitude. These differences hold even for users sharing diversion locations, demand levels or water right seniority. Our findings underline the importance of detailed institutional representation for such basins, as institutions strongly shape how dominant factors of stakeholder vulnerabilities propagate through the complex network of users.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗

Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change

Vast hydropower resources remain untapped globally, the deployment of which could provide energy-economic benefits but impact riverine ecosystems. Across eco-sensitive river basins, it is unclear how drivers of hydropower expansion, such as rapid economic growth and a low-carbon energy transition, could interact with countervailing forces, such as increasingly cost-competitive variable renewable energy (VRE). Using an integrated energy-water-economy model, we explore the effects of these forces on long-term hydropower expansion in the world’s 20 most eco-sensitive basins, which have high ecological richness and untapped hydropower potential. Here, we find that a low-carbon transition exerts the strongest development pressure, causing deployment exceeding 80% of exploitable potential in more than 72% of eco-sensitive basins by 2050, most of which have limited deployment today. Rapid economic growth induces such extensive deployment in only 44% of eco-sensitive basins. Enhanced integration of VRE reduces deployment, alleviating the impacts of rapid economic growth but not the low-carbon transition.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Surface Deformation and Seismicity Linked to Fluid Injection in the Raton Basin

Abstract It is suggested that in addition to seismicity deep fluid injection may cause surface uplift and subsidence in oil and gas‐producing regions. This study uses the Raton Basin as an example to investigate the hydromechanical processes of surface uplift and subsidence during wastewater injection. The Raton Basin, in southern central Colorado and northern central New Mexico, has experienced wastewater injection related to coalbed methane and gas production starting in 1994. In this study, we estimate the extent and magnitude of total vertical deformation in the Raton Basin from 1994 to 2020 and incremental deformation between the years 2017 to 2020. Results indicate a modeled uplift as much as 15 cm occurring between 1994 and 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, up to 3 cm of uplift occurred, largely near the northwestern injection wells. Most modeled uplift between 1994 and 2020 occurred near the southern wells, where the greatest cumulative volume of wastewater was injected. However, modeled subsidence occurred around the southern and eastern wells between 2017 and 2020, after the rate of injection decreased. Modeling indicates that while the magnitude of modeled uplift corresponds to cumulative injection volume and maximum rate in the long‐term, short‐term incremental deformation (uplift or subsidence) is controlled by changes in the rate of injection. The number of yearly earthquake events follows periods of rapid modeled uplifting throughout the Basin, suggesting that measurable surface deformation may be caused by the same injection‐induced pore pressure perturbations that initiate seismicity.

Geology↗

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗

Spatial Study 2022: Water Column, Sediment, and Total Ecosystem Respiration Rates across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin and is associated with the manuscript “Sediment-associated processes account for most of the spatial variation in ecosystem respiration in the Yakima River basin” submitted to Nature Communications Earth & Environment (Garayburu-Caruso et al., in review). The dataset provides ecosystem metabolism estimates generated from streamMetabolizer (Appling et al.; 2018) using data collected during the same five-week period at 48 sites within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Additionally, it includes the scripts used for the analysis and producing the figures in the manuscript. The contents include streamMetabolizer inputs and outputs and additional relevant data needed to generate the main manuscript results. The data included are: total ecosystem respiration, water respiration, calculated sediment-associated respiration, gross primary production outputs from the river corridor model for the Yakima River Basin, median grain size (d50), depth, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pressure, and annual oxygen consumption. The associated GitHub repository can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/SSS_metabolism. Samples collected during this study were labeled as “Second Spatial Study” or “SSS.” Raw time series sensor data, total suspended solids, and depth data from SSS were published at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1969566. A subset of data from the SSS samples were published in the contiguous United States (CONUS)-Scale Model-Sample (CM) study data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1923689 that presents data from across the CONUS. They include dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC), total nitrogen (TN), grain size, aerobic sediment respiration, dissolved oxygen (DO), and temperature. Parent IDs and Site IDs are consistent between the SSS and CM data packages, and they can be mapped directly so data across packages can be used together. Field metadata for the samples in this da This dataset is comprised of one main data folder with four subfolders. The main data folder contains of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) total/water column/sediment respiration; (4) gross primary production (GPP); (5) median grain size (d50); and (6) annual oxygen consumption. The “Figures” subfolder contains the figures used in the paper and all intermediate files (including geospatial files). The “Published_Data” contains a readme directing the user to download the public data to reproduce analyses and figures. The “Scripts” folder contains all scripts used in the analyses that were not part of running StreamMetabolizer. Lastly, the “Stream_Metabolizer” folder contains all files associated with running StreamMetabolizer including (1) model input files, (2) model output files, (3) processing scripts, (4) histogram plots of the outputs, and (5) an R project. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .Rmd, .Rproj, .html, .png, .txt, .qgz, .cpg, .dbf, .prj, .shp, .shp.ea.iso.xml, .shp.iso.xml, .shx, .sbn. ta package can be found at either link. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA"

This data package is associated with the publication “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA” submitted to JGR-Biogeosciences (Regier et al. 2025).This study used reach-scale modeled estimates of hyporheic aerobic respiration made by the River Corridor Model (Fang et al. 2020) and watershed characteristics across the Willamette and Yakima River basins to explore potential allometric scaling (i.e., power-law relationships between size and function) of cumulative hyporheic respiration across catchment-to-basin scales. Scaling was explored quantitatively via the R2, slope, and y-intercept of relationships between cumulative hyporheic respiration and watershed area, divided into hyporheic exchange flux (HEF) quantiles. We also explored relationships between allometric scaling and other watershed characteristics through linear regression, spatial patterns, and mutual information analyses. Our results also suggest variability of hyporheic respiration allometry for middle exchange flux quantiles, and in relation to land-cover. Our findings provide initial evidence that allometric scaling may be useful for predicting hyporheic biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds from reach to basin scales. This data package is associated with the GitHub repository found at https://github.com/peterregier/rc_wrb_yrb_scaling. The data package is organized into several key directories. The “data” folder contains multiple CSV files, including landscape heterogeneity, scaling analysis, and watershed boundary data. The “figures” folder has all figure files in both PDF and PNG formats. Core analysis scripts and figure generation scripts are in the “scripts” directory, systematically numbered for sequential execution. The root directory includes essential project files; please see the file ending in “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files contained in this data package and the file ending in “dd.csv” for data dictionaries used to describe tabular column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of “Tight Oil” Well Performance and Completion Practices in the Powder River Basin - “Time Slice” Analysis

The objective of this paper is to assess how well completion practices and well performance have evolved over time (“time slices”) in the tight sands and shales of the Powder River Basin (PRB). This information can provide a foundation for helping operators define more effective well completion practices and thus optimize well performance in an emerging “tight oil” basin. To start, the authors assembled a “database” containing well completion practices, production data, and geologic information for more than 800 horizontal (Hz) wells targeting three “tight oil” formations -- Turner, Frontier, and Mowry--placed on production in the past dozen years. To control for the impact of geologic and reservoir properties on well performance, the authors defined 12 geologically distinct areas (“partitions”) for the Turner, Frontier, and Mowry Shale in the Powder River Basin (4 partitions in each formation). This paper discusses the methodology for establishing “time slices” for each partition within each of the three “tight oil” formations, including (1) taking out, to the extent practical, the effects of geology by partitioning the three “tight oil” formations based on their geologic parameters; (2) using type curves and estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) to establish a reliable measure of well performance; and (3) rigorously inspecting the production and well completion data to assure a quality dataset. Partition #2, a high thermal maturity area of the Frontier Sandstone in the western Powder River Basin, helps illustrate the results of the study. Using a dataset of 55 Hz wells, the study found that well performance has steadily improved, with oil EURs increasing from 180 MBbl in 2012-13 to 290 MBbl in 2018-19. Much of this improvement was due to the use of longer Hz laterals, increasing notably from 3,765 ft in 2012-13 to 10,260 ft in 2018-19. More intensive completion practices contributed, as well. For example, the number of frac stages more than doubled, from 17 to 35, and proppant concentrations increased from 1,060 lbs/ft to 1,320 lbs/ft. Finally, the data show diminishing returns to longer laterals and more intensive completion practices. For example, the key performance measure of oil EUR per 1,000 ft of lateral is decreasing. For 2012-13, Hz wells recovered 50 MBbl of oil per 1,000 ft of lateral while the more recent 2018-19 Hz wells only provide 30 MBbl of oil per 1,000 ft of lateral. Considerable insight can be gained by using “time slices” and geologic partitioning to better understand the relationship between changes in well drilling and completion practices and changes in well performance in emerging “tight oil” plays. The results from this study can also serve as a foundation for subsequent, more intense efforts involving data analytics for defining more optimum well completion practices targeting specified geologic settings and formations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Mitigation of Hydrogen Gas Generation from the Reaction of Uranium Metal with Water in K Basin Sludge and Sludge Waste Forms

Prior laboratory testing identified sodium nitrate and nitrite to be the most promising agents to minimize hydrogen generation from uranium metal aqueous corrosion in Hanford Site K Basin sludge. Of the two, nitrate was determined to be better because of higher chemical capacity, lower toxicity, more reliable efficacy, and fewer side reactions than nitrite. The present lab tests were run to determine if nitrate’s beneficial effects to lower H2 generation in simulated and genuine sludge continued for simulated sludge mixed with agents to immobilize water to help meet the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) waste acceptance drainable liquid criterion. Tests were run at ~60°C, 80°C, and 95°C using near spherical high-purity uranium metal beads and simulated sludge to emulate uranium-rich KW containerized sludge currently residing in engineered containers KW-210 and KW-220. Immobilization agents tested were Portland cement (PC), a commercial blend of PC with sepiolite clay (Aquaset II H), granulated sepiolite clay (Aquaset II G), and sepiolite clay powder (Aquaset II). In all cases except tests with Aquaset II G, the simulated sludge was mixed intimately with the immobilization agent before testing commenced. For the granulated Aquaset II G clay was added to the top of the settled sludge/solution mixture according to manufacturer application directions. The gas volumes and compositions, uranium metal corrosion mass losses, and nitrite, ammonia, and hydroxide concentrations in the interstitial solutions were measured. Uranium metal corrosion rates were compared with rates forecast from the known uranium metal anoxic water corrosion rate law. The ratios of the forecast to the observed rates were calculated to find the corrosion rate attenuation factors. Hydrogen quantities also were measured and compared with quantities expected based on non-attenuated H2 generation at the full forecast anoxic corrosion rate to arrive at H2 attenuation factors. The uranium metal corrosion rates in water alone and in simulated sludge were near or slightly below the metal-in-water rate while nitrate-free sludge/Aquaset II decreased rates by about a factor of 3. Addition of 1 M nitrate to simulated sludge decreased the corrosion rate by a factor of ~5 while 1 M nitrate in sludge/Aquaset II mixtures decreased the corrosion rate by ~2.5 compared with the nitrate-free analogues. Mixtures of simulated sludge with Aquaset II treated with 1 M nitrate had uranium corrosion rates about a factor of 8 to 10 lower than the water-only rate law. Nitrate was found to provide substantial hydrogen mitigation for immobilized simulant sludge waste forms containing Aquaset II or Aquaset II G clay. Hydrogen attenuation factors of 1000 or greater were determined at 60°C for sludge-clay mixtures at 1 M nitrate. Hydrogen mitigation for tests with PC and Aquaset II H (which contains PC) were inconclusive because of suspected failure to overcome induction times and fully enter into anoxic corrosion. Lessening of hydrogen attenuation at ~80°C and ~95°C for simulated sludge and Aquaset II was observed with attenuation factors around 100 to 200 at 1 M nitrate. Valuable additional information has been obtained on the ability of nitrate to attenuate hydrogen gas generation from solution, simulant K Basin sludge, and simulant sludge with immobilization agents. Details on characteristics of the associated reactions were also obtained. The present testing confirms prior work which indicates that nitrate is an effective agent to attenuate hydrogen from uranium metal corrosion in water and simulated K Basin sludge to show that it is also effective in potential candidate solidified K Basin waste forms for WIPP disposal. The hydrogen mitigation afforded by nitrate appears to be sufficient to meet the hydrogen generation limits for shipping various sludge waste streams based on uranium metal concentrations and assumed waste form loadings.

08 HYDROGEN↗

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATERSHED RUNOFF FLOW - UPPER COOSA RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM FROM PLANT HAMMOND

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in the coming decades depends on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to reduce stream flows from their current values due to potentially less precipitation and higher temperatures, and possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. The upper Coosa River basin, located in northwest Georgia, plays an important role in supplying water for industry and domestic use in northern Georgia, and has been involved in water disputes in recent times. The seven-day ten-year low flow (7Q10 flow) is the lowest average flow for seven consecutive days that has an average recurrence interval of 10 years. The 7Q10 flow is statistically derived from the observed historical flow data, and represents the low flow (drought) condition for a basin. The upper Coosa River basin also supplies cooling water for the 935MW coal-fired Hammond plant, which draws about 65% of the 7Q10 flow of the upper Coosa River to dissipate waste heat. The water is drawn through once and returned to the river directly from the generator (i.e., no cooling tower is used). Record low flows in 2007 led to use of portable cooling towers to meet temperature limits. Disruption of the Plant Hammond operation may trigger closure of area industrial facilities (e.g. paper mill). The population in Georgia is expected to double from 9 million to 18 million residents in the next 25 years, mostly in the metropolitan Atlanta area. Therefore, there will be an even greater demand for potable water and for waste assimilation. Climate change in the form of persistent droughts (causing low flows) and high ambient temperatures create regulatory compliance challenges for Plant Hammond operating with a once-through cooling system. Therefore, the Upper Coosa River basin was selected to study the effect of potential future weather change on the watershed runoff flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GAMA-LLNL Alpine Basin Special Study: Scope of Work

For this task LLNL will examine the vulnerability of drinking water supplies in foothills and higher elevation areas to climate change impacts on recharge. Recharge locations and vulnerability will be determined through examination of groundwater ages and noble gas recharge temperatures in high elevation basins. LLNL will determine whether short residence times are common in one or more subalpine basin. LLNL will measure groundwater ages, recharge temperatures, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes, major anions and carbon isotope compositions on up to 60 samples from monitoring wells and production wells in these basins. In addition, a small number of carbon isotope analyses will be performed on surface water samples. The deliverable for this task will be a technical report that provides the measured data and an interpretation of the data from one or more subalpine basins. Data interpretation will: (1) Consider climate change impacts to recharge and its impact on water quality; (2) Determine primary recharge locations and their vulnerability to climate change; and (3) Delineate the most vulnerable areas and describe the likely impacts to recharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Assessment of Geological Carbon Storage Options in the Illinois Basin: Validation Phase

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) assessed the options for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in the 155,400 km 2 (60,000 mi 2 ) Illinois Basin, which underlies most of Illinois, western Indiana, and western Kentucky. The region has annual CO 2 emissions of about 265 million metric tonnes (292 million tons), primarily from 122 coal-fired electric generation facilities, some of which burn almost 4.5 million tonnes (5 million tons) of coal per year (U.S. Department of Energy, 2010). Validation Phase (Phase II) field tests gathered pilot data to update the Characterization Phase (Phase I) assessment of options for capture, transportation, and storage of CO 2 emissions in three geological sink types: coal seams, oil fields, and saline reservoirs. Four small-scale field tests were conducted to determine the properties of rock units that control injectivity of CO 2 , assess the total storage resources, examine the security of the overlying rock units that act as seals for the reservoirs, and develop ways to control and measure the safety of injection and storage processes. The MGSC designed field test operational plans for pilot sites based on the site screening process, MVA program needs, the selection of equipment related to CO 2 injection, and design of a data acquisition system. Reservoir modeling, computational simulations, and statistical methods assessed and interpreted data gathered from the field tests. Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting (MVA) programs were established to detect leakage of injected CO 2 and ensure public safety. Public outreach and education remained an important part of the project; meetings and presentations informed public and private regional stakeholders of the results and findings. A miscible (liquid) CO 2 flood pilot project was conducted in the Clore Formation sandstone (Mississippian System, Chesterian Series) at Mumford Hills Field in Posey County, southwestern Indiana, and an immiscible CO 2 flood pilot was conducted in the Jackson sandstone (Mississippian System Big Clifty Sandstone Member) at the Sugar Creek Field in Hopkins County, western Kentucky. Up to 12% incremental oil recovery was estimated based on these pilots. A CO 2 huff puff (HNP) pilot project was conducted in the Cypress Sandstone in the Loudon Field. This pilot was designed to measure and record data that could be used to calibrate a reservoir simulation model. A pilot project at the Tanquary Farms site in Wabash County, southeastern Illinois, tested the potential storage of CO 2 in the Springfield Coal Member of the Carbondale Formation (Pennsylvanian System), in order to gauge the potential for large-scale CO 2 storage and/or enhanced coal bed methane recovery from Illinois Basin coal beds. The pilot results from all four sites showed that CO 2 could be injected into the subsurface without adversely affecting groundwater. Additionally, hydrocarbon production was enhanced, giving further evidence that CO 2 storage in oil reservoirs and coal beds offers an economic advantage. Results from the MVA program at each site indicated that injected CO 2 did not leave the injection zone. Topical reports were completed on the Middle and Late Devonian New Albany Shale and Basin CO 2 emissions. The efficacy of the New Albany Shale as a storage sink could be substantial if low injectivity concerns can be alleviated. CO 2 emissions in the Illinois Basin were projected to be dominated by coal-fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Site Characterization for CO 2 Storage from Coal-fired Power Facilities in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama

Coal-fired power plants produce large quantities of carbon dioxide. In order to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions from these power plants, it is necessary to separate and store the carbon dioxide. Saline formations provide a potential sink for carbon dioxide and delineating the capacity of the various known saline formations is a key part of building a storage inventory. As part of this effort, a project was undertaken to access the storage capacity of saline reservoirs in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama. This basin has been a productive oil and gas reservoir that is well characterized to the west of the two major coal-fired power plants that are north of Birmingham. The saline zones were thought to extend as far east as the Sequatchie Anticline which is just east of the power plants. There is no oil or gas production in the area surrounding the power plants so little is known about the formations in that area. A geologic characterization well was drilled on the Gorgas Power Plant site, which is the farthest west of two power plants in the area. The well was planned to be drilled to approximately 8,000 feet, but drilling was halted at approximately 5,000 feet when a prolific freshwater zone was penetrated. During drilling, a complete set of cores through all of the potential injection zones and the seals above these zones were acquired. A complete set of openhole logs were run along with a vertical seismic profile (VSP). Before drilling started two approximately perpendicular seismic lines were run and later correlated with the VSP. While the zones that were expected were found at approximately the predicted depths, the zones that are typically saline through the reservoir were found to be saturated with a light crude oil. Unfortunately, both the porosity and permeability of these zones were small enough that no meaningful hydrocarbon production would be expected even with carbon dioxide flooding. While this part of the basin was found to be unsuitable for carbon dioxide injection, there is still a large storage capacity in the basin to the west of the power plants. It will, however, require pipeline construction to transport the carbon dioxide to the injection sites.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Basin-Scale Leakage Risks from Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Impact on Carbon Capture and Storage Energy Market Competitiveness

This three-year project, performed by Princeton University in partnership with the University of Minnesota and Brookhaven National Laboratory, examined geologic carbon sequestration in regard to CO 2 leakage and potential subsurface liabilities. The research resulted in basin-scale analyses of CO 2 and brine leakage in light of uncertainties in the characteristics of leakage processes, and generated frameworks to monetize the risks of leakage interference with competing subsurface resources. The geographic focus was the Michigan sedimentary basin, for which a 3D topographical model was constructed to represent the hydrostratigraphy. Specifically for Ottawa County, a statistical analysis of the hydraulic properties of underlying sedimentary formations was conducted. For plausible scenarios of injection into the Mt. Simon sandstone, leakage rates were estimated and fluxes into shallow drinking-water aquifers were found to be less than natural analogs of CO 2 fluxes. We developed the Leakage Impact Valuation (LIV) model in which we identified stakeholders and estimated costs associated with leakage events. It was found that costs could be incurred even in the absence of legal action or other subsurface interference because there are substantial costs of finding and fixing the leak and from injection interruption. We developed a model framework called RISCS, which can be used to predict monetized risk of interference with subsurface resources by combining basin-scale leakage predictions with the LIV method. The project has also developed a cost calculator called the Economic and Policy Drivers Module (EPDM), which comprehensively calculates the costs of carbon sequestration and leakage, and can be used to examine major drivers for subsurface leakage liabilities in relation to specific injection scenarios and leakage events. Finally, we examined the competiveness of CCS in the energy market. This analysis, though qualitative, shows that financial incentives, such as a carbon tax, are needed for coal combustion with CCS to gain market share. In another part of the project we studied the role of geochemical reactions in affecting the probability of CO 2 leakage. A basin-scale simulation tool was modified to account for changes in leakage rates due to permeability alterations, based on simplified mathematical rules for the important geochemical reactions between acidified brines and caprock minerals. In studies of reactive flows in fractured caprocks, we examined the potential for permeability increases, and the extent to which existing reactive transport models would or would not be able to predict it. Using caprock specimens from the Eau Claire and Amherstburg, we found that substantial increases in permeability are possible for caprocks that have significant carbonate content, but minimal alteration is expected otherwise. We also found that while the permeability increase may be substantial, it is much less than what would be predicted from hydrodynamic models based on mechanical aperture alone because the roughness that is generated tends to inhibit flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbiological and Chemical Test Results on an Unknown Material from the L-Area Spent Fuel Basin

Two sampling events were completed to obtain cobweb-like material from the L-Area basin to determine what the material is and any potential impacts the material may have on the basin. The first sampling indicated that the material has a biological component but the low amount of material obtained from sampling was insufficient for full microbial and chemical analysis. The amount from the second sampling was more, approximately 50 ml. The material consisted of microorganisms, trace metals, and crystalline materials. The microorganisms are mostly, if not exclusively bacteria and this result indicates that the material and formation was mostly likely the result of biological activities. The highest concentration metals measured in the basin material include silica, aluminum, titanium, and iron. This microbiological matrix was dominated by many different types of heterotrophic bacteria, meaning that they are dependent upon external supplies of organic carbon and nutrients. Without these external inputs the bacteria cannot sustain themselves. Inferred from the measured levels of microbial diversity measured these requirements are currently being met. Further study of the water chemistry, examination of the cobweb-like material using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and visual inspection of the fuel storage materials are recommended to further assess the mechanisms the microbial materials use for growth and assess the impact, if any, the material has on the underlying aluminum spent fuel. Additional testing and mitigation options include additional monitoring with strategically placed coupons, targeted testing at SRNL, further analysis of the microbiological matter, and removal of the material from the basin.

Berry, C. J.↗

Fault-related CO 2 degassing, geothermics, and fluid flow in southern California basins---Physiochemical evidence and modeling

Our studies have had an important impact on societal issues. Experimental and field observations show that CO 2 degassing, such as might occur from stored CO 2 reservoir gas, can result in significant stable isotopic disequilibrium. In the offshore South Ellwood field of the Santa Barbara channel, we show how oil production has reduced natural seep rates in the area, thereby reducing greenhouse gases. Permeability is calculated to be ~20-30 millidarcys for km-scale fault-focused fluid flow, using changes in natural gas seepage rates from well production, and poroelastic changes in formation pore-water pressure. In the Los Angeles (LA) basin, our characterization of formation water chemistry, including stable isotopic studies, allows the distinction between deep and shallow formations waters. Our multiphase computational-based modeling of petroleum migration demonstrates the important role of major faults on geological-scale fluid migration in the LA basin, and show how petroleum was dammed up against the Newport-Inglewood fault zone in a “geologically fast” interval of time (less than 0.5 million years). Furthermore, these fluid studies also will allow evaluation of potential cross-formational mixing of formation fluids. Lastly, our new study of helium isotopes in the LA basin shows a significant leakage of mantle helium along the Newport Inglewood fault zone (NIFZ), at flow rates up to 2 cm/yr. Crustal-scale fault permeability (~60 microdarcys) and advective versus conductive heat transport rates have been estimated using the observed helium isotopic data. The NIFZ is an important deep-seated fault that may crosscut a proposed basin decollement fault in this heavily populated area, and appears to allow seepage of helium from the mantle sources about 30 km beneath Los Angeles. The helium study has been widely cited in recent weeks by the news media, both in radio and on numerous web sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗