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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Interactions Between Produced Formation Fluid and Rock Matrix on Pore Structure of Caney Shale, Southern Oklahoma

ABSTRACT: Rock-fluid interactions change properties of shales during exploitation. To investigate effects of rock-fluid interactions on pore structure of shales matrix after hydraulic fracturing, powder samples from two late Mississippian Caney Shale cores in the Ardmore Basin, southern Oklahoma, were used to react with formation produced fluid from the field in the batch reactor analysis. X-ray diffraction for mineralogy and Low-pressure nitrogen adsorption isotherms for pore structure were measured for original, after-7days, and after-30days samples. Results show that the samples consist mainly of quartz, followed by clay minerals, carbonates, and feldspar. The pore sizes of micropore (<2 nm) and mesopore (2-50 nm) increase 14%-233% due to dissolution of pyrite, feldspar, and carbonates after 7 days. Due to the transformation from smectite to illite and the increase of pore size, the specific surface area (SSA) decreases after 7-days interactions. After 30-days interactions, the micropore volume slightly increases and the mesopore and macropore volume decreases. Due to the decrease of pore size, the SSA of 30-days reacted samples increases correspondingly and is lower (for the clay-rich sample) or higher (for the calcareous sample) than that of the unreacted samples. Findings improve our understanding of dynamic alteration of shale properties during production. 1. INTRODUCTION Energy demand will continuously grow owing to the increasing global population as well as energy consumption (EIA, 2023). On the other hand, shale gas and oil reshaped the energy market in the United States, enabling the United States to become a net-export of natural gas country in 2017 (EIA, 2023). However, shale reservoirs are challenging tight formations that are still poorly understood in the extraction and production of hydrocarbons (Ross and Bustin, 2009; Curtis et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2015, 2021a; Li Y. et al., 2016; Gong et al., 2019a; Benge et al., 2021; Awejori et al., 2022; Huang et al., 2022). One of the most challenging topics is the rock-fluid interactions post hydraulic fracturing and its subsequent impacts on the pore structures of fractured formation matrix.

Xiong, Fengyang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting multi‐scale riverine topographic variability and its influence on Chinook salmon habitat selection

Abstract Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1‐m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid‐wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley‐scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle‐pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small‐scale wavelet power, which is related to pool‐riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel‐unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.

Duffin, Jenna↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession

We report permafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface-atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, especially the lowest flows (baseflow). Mechanistic links between active layer thickness and baseflow have recently been explored using linear reservoir theory, but most watersheds behave as nonlinear reservoirs. We derive theoretical nonlinear relationships between long-term average saturated soil thickness $\bar{η}$(proxy for active layer thickness) and long-term average baseflow. When applied to 38 years of daily streamflow data for the Kuparuk River basin on the North Slope of Alaska, the theory predicts $\bar{η}$ increased 0.17 ± 0.22[2σ] cm a -1 between 1983 and 2020 (6.4 ± cm total). The rate of increase nearly doubled to 0.29 ± 0.31 cm a -1 between 1990 and 2020, during which time local field measurements from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites indicate the active layer increased 0.31 ± 0.22 cm a -1 . The predicted rate of increase more than doubled again between 2002 and 2020, outpacing a near doubling of observed active layer thickening, consistent with trends in terrestrial water storage inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite gravimetry and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications climate reanalysis. Overall, hydrologic change is accelerating in the Kuparuk River basin, and we provide a theoretical framework for estimating basin-scale changes in active layer water storage from streamflow measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAIL Aerosol Vertical Profiles (SAIL-AVP) Field Campaign Report

Aerosols are central to understanding the water cycle within mountainous regions, but a complete understanding of this role cannot be provided without vertically resolved observations, particularly for aerosol-cloud interactions, since we simultaneously need to know aerosol information and meteorology near cloud bases. The goal of SAIL Aerosol Vertical Profiles (SAIL-AVP) was to perform tethered balloon system (TBS) measurements during different seasons to elucidate process-level understanding of the aerosols and associated meteorological conditions within complex mountainous terrain. Measurements were conducted during the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s second Mobile Facility (AMF2) as part of the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in southwestern Colorado. In mid-latitude continental interior mountain ranges, and especially at SAIL, aerosol vertical profiles and their relationships with meteorology are, almost without exception, inferred from a combination of ground-based and remote-sensing data. These flights provided many more dimensions to aerosol-cloud interactions that are unavailable to those inferential approaches: the TBS collected in situ information in the vertical, optical, chemical, and biological dimensions for aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the collocation of these flights with longstanding collaborative resources in the region, including the ongoing surface and subsurface hydrologic observations from the DOE’s Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), produced a unique set of atmospheric observations that are complemented by existing land-surface and subsurface (e.g., groundwater) observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2022

WASTE TREATMENT PLANT (WTP) LIQUID EFFLUENT TREATABILITY EVALUATION (SEPTEMBER 2004)

A forecast of the radioactive, dangerous liquid effluents expected to be produced by the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) was provided by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI 2004). The forecast represents the liquid effluents generated from the processing of Tank Farm waste through the end-of-mission for the WTP. The WTP forecast is provided in the Appendices. The WTP liquid effluents will be stored, treated, and disposed of in the Liquid Effluent Retention Facility (LERF) and the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). Both facilities are located in the 200 East Area and are operated by Fluor Hanford, Inc. (FH) for the US. Department of Energy (DOE). The treatability of the WTP liquid effluents in the LERF/ETF was evaluated. The evaluation was conducted by comparing the forecast to the LERF/ETF treatability envelope (Aromi 1997), which provides information on the items which determine if a liquid effluent is acceptable for receipt and treatment at the LERF/ETF. The format of the evaluation corresponds directly to the outline of the treatability envelope document. Except where noted, the maximum annual average concentrations over the range of the 27 year forecast was evaluated against the treatability envelope. This is an acceptable approach because the volume capacity in the LERF Basin will equalize the minimum and maximum peaks. Background information on the LERF/ETF design basis is provided in the treatability envelope document.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computed Tomography Scanning and Petrophysical Measurements of Eastern Williston Basin Twin Buttes and Hagel Formations

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, were used to characterize core from two wells that represent coal resources across North Dakota. These include the MC23080C Well in Mercer County and the 23-B001 Well in Oliver County. The primary impetus of this work was to capture a detailed digital representation of the core from the MC23080C and 23-B001 Wells. The collaboration between the NETL and the Energy and Environment Research Center (EERC) enables other research entities to access information about this potential carbon ore, rare earth, and critical mineral resource plays in the Williston Basin. All equipment and techniques used were non-destructive, enabling future examinations and analyses to be performed on these cores. Fractures, discontinuities, and millimeter-scale features were readily detectable with the medical CT scanner acquired images. Imaging with the NETL medical CT scanner was performed on entire cores. Qualitative analysis of the medical CT images, coupled with X-ray fluorescence (XRF), gamma density, and magnetic susceptibility measurements from the MSCL were useful in identifying zones of interest for potential future analysis. Higher-resolution industrial and micro-CT images were acquired from selected zones along the depth of the core to visualize the structure in higher detail. The ability to quickly identify key areas for more detailed study with higher resolution will save time and resources in future studies. The combination of methods used provides a multi-scale analysis of the core, with the resulting macro- and micro-descriptions relevant to many subsurface energy-related examinations traditionally performed at NETL.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thaw Depth, Oxyanion Concentrations, and Soil Moisture from Elevated Microtopographic Polygonal Features, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2016 and 2017

Data include results from elevated macrotopographic features soil pore-water oxyanion concentrations, soil moisture, and for samples collected from the Barrow Environmental Observatory and the broader Barrow Peninsula near Utqiagvik, Alaska during September 2016 and July 2017. Samples were collected from the top 20 cm of elevated polygonal tundra microtopograpic features including high-centered polygon centers, flat-centered polygon centers, low-centered polygon rims, the outer edges of drain-thaw lake basins (DTLB), and high centered polygons that underwent accelerated drying due to anthropogenic disturbance (ACC-HCP). This dataset contains two *.csv data files and one *.pdf user guide and is used in Arendt, et.al.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Acid–Base Stimulation Sequence on Mineral Stability for Tight/Impermeable Unconventional Carbonate-Rich Rocks: A Delaware Basin Case Study

We report mineral precipitation due to reactions with injected fluids during unconventional fracture stimulation is a well-recognized problem. The goal of this study is to evaluate secondary mineral precipitation and permeability attenuation under chemical injection scenarios specific to the Delaware basin. Whole cylindrical cores (2.54 cm diameter and 2.54 cm height) and ground shale (150–250 μm) from the carbonate-rich Bone Spring Formation, Delaware Basin TX (Leonardian), were reacted at 80 °C and 85 bar using a hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) recipe and an injection sequence typical of the Delaware Basin. The reacted shales and solutions were analyzed using a variety of laboratory- and synchrotron-based techniques to characterize both the chemical and spatial distributions of secondary mineral precipitation and identify changes in permeability and mineralogy. This carbonate-rich shale (>84% calcite) rapidly neutralized the acidic HFF. Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence mapping coupled with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (both bulk and micro) showed that most of the iron was in an oxidized form prior to exposure to HFF and that almost all iron(II) became fully oxidized after the reaction. Scanning electron microscopy images of the ground shale samples primarily identified iron(oxyhydr)oxide microcrystals on grain surfaces. A few small isolated iron-rich areas also contained sulfur, suggesting that some pyrite was preserved when isolated within a calcite crystal but that most was oxidized. The rapid neutralization of the acid spearhead in these carbonate-rich samples demonstrates that the acid spearhead is useful for initiating fractures in extremely calcite-rich rocks but does little to enhance rock permeability. This suggests that the impact of the acid spearhead is significantly smaller for carbonate-rich shales compared to clay-rich shales, which has broad implications for acidizing in carbonate-rich shale formations and iron transformations within these shales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stable Isotope and Geochemical Evidence for Hydrological Isolation in an Arctic Coastal Plain Landscape, Barrow, Alaska, 2013

Data include results from water chemistry and water isotope analyses for samples collected in Barrow, Alaska during July and September 2013. Samples were from surface and soil pore waters from 15 locations: 3 locations from interlake polygonal terrain, 6 locations associated with interlake drainages, and 6 locations within or at the outlets of different aged drained thaw lake basins (DTLBs). Samples were taken in different drainage flow types at three different depths at each location in and around the Barrow Environmental Observatory. This dataset includes one .csv data file and one .pdf user guide.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stem respiration and growth in a central Amazon rainforest

Tropical forests cycle a large amount of CO 2 between the land and atmosphere, with a substantial portion of the return flux due tree respiratory processes. However, in situ estimates of woody tissue respiratory fluxes and carbon use efficiencies (CUEW) and their dependencies on physiological processes including stem wood production (Pw) and transpiration in tropical forests remain scarce. In this work, we synthesize monthly Pw and daytime stem CO 2 efflux (ES) measurements over one year from 80 trees with variable biomass accumulation rates in the central Amazon. On average, carbon flux to woody tissues, expressed in the same stem area normalized units as ES, averaged 0.90 ± 1.2 µmol m -2 s -1 for Pw, and 0.55 ± 0.33 µmol m -2 s -1 for daytime ES. A positive linear correlation was found between stem growth rates and stem CO 2 efflux, with respiratory carbon loss equivalent to 15 ± 3% of stem carbon accrual. CUEW of stems was non-linearly correlated with growth and was as high as 77-87% for a fast-growing tree. Diurnal measurements of stem CO 2 efflux for three individuals showed a daytime reduction of ES by 15-50% during periods of high sap flow and transpiration. The results demonstrate that high daytime ES fluxes are associated with high CUE W during fast tree growth, reaching higher values than previously observed in the Amazon Basin (e.g. maximum CUEW up to 77-87%, versus 30-56%). The observations are consistent with the emerging view that diurnal dynamics of stem water status influences growth processes and associated respiratory metabolism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗