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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress

Introduction: Crops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer. Methods: We analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041- 2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap. Results: Identified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type. Discussion: The information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parameter extraction for a SPICE model of an hTron superconducting thermal switch

Efficiently simulating large circuits is crucial to the development of superconducting nanowire-based electronics. However, current simulation tools for this technology are not adapted to the scaling of circuit size and complexity. We focus on the multilayered heater-nanocryotron (hTron), a promising superconducting nanowire-based switch used in applications such as superconducting nanowire single-photon detector readout. Previously, the hTron was modeled using traditional finite-element methods, which fall short in simulating systems at a larger scale. An empirical-based method would be better adapted to this task, enhancing both simulation speed and agreement with experimental data. In this work, we perform switching current and activation delay measurements on 17 hTron devices. We then develop a method for extracting physical fitting parameters used to characterize the devices. We build a SPICE behavioral model that reproduces the static and transient device behavior using these parameters, and validate it by comparing its performance to a model developed in prior work, showing an improvement in simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our model provides circuit designers with a tool to help understand the hTron’s behavior during all design stages, thus enabling broader use of the hTron across various new areas of application.

Caloritronics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic modeling of ideal ballooning modes in high- β Wendelstein 7-X plasmas

We present nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of high- β Wendelstein 7-X plasmas using the stellarator extension of the M3D- C 1 code, building on the recent work that shows benign saturation of ideal ballooning modes above the designed β limit in the standard configuration [Zhou et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 133, 135102 (2024)]. First, we examine the results' sensitivity to the parallel thermal conductivity. It is found that while an increased parallel conductivity reduces the linear growth rate, the saturated pressure profile is barely affected. Second, we consider the dependence on the profile shape. It is shown that an equilibrium with a peaked pressure profile and lower β is subject to more significant change than a broad profile with higher β and a larger growth rate, suggesting that benign saturation, or nonlinear stability, is not guaranteed and not dictated by linear growth. Third, we study the influence of the magnetic configuration, with the equilibrium rotational transform varied by adjusting the planar coil current. With similar growth rates, similar magnitudes of profile change are found regardless of the presence of a low-order resonance, which implies that the saturation mechanism is not specific to a resonant or non-resonant mode. These results indicate that MHD stability should still be treated seriously in stellarator operation and design, for which nonlinear modeling using tools like M3D- C 1 can play an instrumental role.

Zhou, Yao [Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China)] ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Analysis of an Integrated Additively Manufactured Test Article for Plasma-Facing Components

Current plasma-facing components (PFCs) used in helium-cooled divertor modules are complex structures with tungsten tile, steel sleeve components, and cartridges, all assembled in a helium-cooled multiple jet (HEMJ) structure. The goal of this project is to simplify the complex PFC design using additive manufacturing techniques to create a single integrated tungsten test article. Apart from the flexibility this opens up in exploring a wide array of geometries for the article, having a single integrated article significantly reduces the number of joints and parts in the article, thus reducing chances of leaks. A process called electron beam melting has shown to produce very high-density samples and unique geometries, enabling HEMJ or similar designs. To validate and optimize this novel design, the model underwent a series of computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis simulations to replicate steady-state heat flux in the divertors. The simulations presented in this study consider a steady-state base heat flux of 5 MW/m 2 , with water serving as the coolant. Future research will explore the use of helium as a coolant, simulate edge-localized-mode conditions, and include experimental validation. Since 3D-printed tungsten is anisotropic, the build direction versus build plane of the article are taken into consideration for the test article strength. Because of the high operating temperatures and low ductility of tungsten, thermal creep and brittle fracture are important failure mechanisms to consider. In conclusion, the cap is evaluated with various flow velocities and nozzle diameters, and an optimal design choice is made for which this cap will survive the divertor conditions with a conservative safety margin.

Divertor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct pulse-level compilation of arbitrary quantum logic gates on superconducting qutrits

Advanced simulations and calculations on quantum computers require high-fidelity implementations of quantum operations. The universal gateset approach builds complex unitaries from a small set of primitive gates, often resulting in a long gate sequence, which is typically a leading factor in the total accumulated error. Compiling a complex unitary for processors with higher-dimensional logical elements, such as qutrits, exacerbates the accumulated error per unitary, since an even longer gate sequence is required. Optimal control methods promise time- and resource-efficient compact gate sequences and, therefore, higher fidelity. These methods generate pulses that can directly implement any complex unitary on a quantum device. In this work, we demonstrate that any arbitrary qubit and qutrit gate can be realized with high fidelity, which can significantly reduce the length of a gate sequence. We generate and test pulses for a large set of randomly selected arbitrary unitaries on several quantum processing units (QPUs): the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Quantum Device and Integration Testbed’s (QuDIT’s) standard QPU and three of Rigetti’s QPUs: Ankaa-2, Ankaa-9Q-1, and Aspen-M-3. On the QuDIT platform’s standard QPU, the average fidelity of random qutrit gates is 97.9 ± 0.5% measured with conventional QPT and 98.8 ± 0.6% from QPT with gate folding. Rigetti’s Ankaa-2 achieves random qubit gates with an average fidelity of 98.4 ± 0.5% (conventional QPT) and 99.7 ± 0.1% (QPT with gate folding). On Ankaa-9Q-1 and Aspen-M-3, the average fidelities with conventional qubit QPT measurements were higher than 99% (see Appendix). Here we show that optimal control gates are robust to drift for at least 3 h and that the same calibration parameters can be used for all implemented gates. Our work promises that the calibration overheads for optimal control gates can be made small enough to enable efficient quantum circuits based on this technique.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fine-tuning machine-learned particle-flow reconstruction for new detector geometries in future colliders

We demonstrate transfer learning capabilities in a machine-learned algorithm trained for particle-flow reconstruction in high energy particle colliders. This paper presents a cross-detector fine-tuning study, where we initially pretrain the model on a large full simulation dataset from one detector design, and subsequently fine-tune the model on a sample with a different collider and detector design. Specifically, we use the Compact Linear Collider detector (CLICdet) model for the initial training set and demonstrate successful knowledge transfer to the CLIC-like detector (CLD) proposed for the Future Circular Collider in electron-positron mode. We show that with an order of magnitude less samples from the second dataset, we can achieve the same performance as a costly training from scratch, across particle-level and event-level performance metrics, including jet and missing transverse momentum resolution. Furthermore, we find that the fine-tuned model achieves comparable performance to the traditional rule-based particle-flow approach on event-level metrics after training on 100,000 CLD events, whereas a model trained from scratch requires at least 1 million CLD events to achieve similar reconstruction performance. To our knowledge, this represents the first full-simulation cross-detector transfer learning study for particle-flow reconstruction. These findings offer valuable insights towards building large foundation models that can be fine-tuned across different detector designs and geometries, helping to accelerate the development cycle for new detectors and opening the door to rapid detector design and optimization using machine learning.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Successive Procedure for Solution Verification Based on User Needs

This paper discusses a revised solution verification procedure for computational fluid dynamics simulations to estimate the uncertainties in the quantities of interest based on discretization error models. This proposed procedure builds upon current procedures described in ASME V&V 20 but provides more guidance in determining the necessary number of mesh levels to build reliable discretization error models. Such guidance is particularly useful for practicing engineers without prior experience in solution verification. The key features of this proposed solution verification procedure are the ability to determine the need for additional mesh levels iteratively and the seamless treatment for underdetermined, exact, and overdetermined solutions of the power series approximation to the discretization error models. This study applies the proposed procedure to a set of synthetic examples to demonstrate the revised procedure’s clarity in determining the number of mesh solutions required for a reliable estimate of the discretization error in computational fluid dynamics settings. Additionally, this proposed procedure prevents a potential pathway in the current procedure in ASME V&V 20 that may lead to unreasonably small discretization errors.

Weinmeister, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structural characterization of ligand binding and pH-specific enzymatic activity of mouse Acidic Mammalian Chitinase

Chitin is an abundant biopolymer and pathogen-associated molecular pattern that stimulates a host innate immune response. Mammals express chitin-binding and chitin-degrading proteins to remove chitin from the body. One of these proteins, Acidic Mammalian Chitinase (AMCase), is an enzyme known for its ability to function under acidic conditions in the stomach but is also active in tissues with more neutral pHs, such as the lung. Here, we used a combination of biochemical, structural, and computational modeling approaches to examine how the mouse homolog (mAMCase) can act in both acidic and neutral environments. We measured kinetic properties of mAMCase activity across a broad pH range, quantifying its unusual dual activity optima at pH 2 and 7. We also solved high-resolution crystal structures of mAMCase in complex with oligomeric GlcNAcn, the building block of chitin, where we identified extensive conformational ligand heterogeneity. Leveraging these data, we conducted molecular dynamics simulations that suggest how a key catalytic residue could be protonated via distinct mechanisms in each of the two environmental pH ranges. These results integrate structural, biochemical, and computational approaches to deliver a more complete understanding of the catalytic mechanism governing mAMCase activity at different pH. Engineering proteins with tunable pH optima may provide new opportunities to develop improved enzyme variants, including AMCase, for therapeutic purposes in chitin degradation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the muon neutrino charged-current mesonless cross section in the NOvA near detector

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino experiment at Fermilab. Its physics goals include precision neutrino oscillation measurements, neutrino interaction cross-section measurements and beyond Standard Model explorations. We present a measurement of muon neutrino charged-current cross section with zero mesons in the final state at the NOvA near detector. This measurement is performed as a function of the kinematics of the final state muon. Our chosen interaction channel is especially sensitive to quasielastic and meson exchange current interactions and it provides handles for constraining the cross section systematic uncertainties in oscillation analyses in present and future experiments. For particle identification, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on individual particles simulated in the NOvA Near detector. This allows us to select the desired signal while reducing the potential bias from neutrino interaction modeling. We study strategies for constraining the remaining charged-pion background via Michel electron information in a template fitting approach. The main experimental result is a two-dimensional differential cross section as a function of final-state muon kinetic energy and polar angle. The parameters of this measurement, including binning and unfolding, were optimized to reduce the expected systematic uncertainty in the total cross section. The final result shows good agreement with the main GENIE-based simulation framework that was independently fine-tuned in NOvA. We finally propose improvements and subsequent steps that build on this analysis and further dissect the final states of neutrino interactions. This work has been supported by US DOE grant DE-SC0015684.

Sánchez Falero, Sebastián Jesús [Iowa State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

SciDAC ISEP: Integrated Simulation of Energetic Particles in Burning Plasmas

The objective of the SciDAC Center for Integrated Simulation of Energetic Particles in Burning Plasmas (ISEP) is to improve physics understanding of energetic particle (EP) confinement and EP interactions with burning thermal plasmas through large-scale simulations. The ISEP center will develop a multiscale and multiphysics ISEP framework for a predictive capability of EP physics and deliver an EP module incorporating both first-principles simulations and high fidelity reduced transport models to the fusion whole device modeling (WDM) project. The ISEP framework will enable us to perform long time, global kinetic simulations of EP physics in burning plasmas, by utilizing the full power of the next generation supercomputers. Our research and development activities will build on fruitful collaborations with computer scientists and applied mathematicians to offer enabling technologies for performance scalability, portability, solvers, coupling for integration with the fusion WDM project, and long-term preservation of data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solidification and crystallographic texture modeling of laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using finite difference-monte carlo method

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing makes near-net-shaped parts with reduced material cost and time, rising as a promising technology to fabricate Ti-6Al-4V, a widely used titanium alloy in aerospace and medical industries. However, LPBF Ti-6Al-4V parts produced with 67° rotation between layers, a scan strategy commonly used to reduce microstructure and property inhomogeneity, have varying grain morphologies and weak crystallographic textures that change depending on processing parameters. Here, this study predicts LPBF Ti-6Al-4V solidification at three energy levels using a finite difference-Monte Carlo method and validates the simulations with large-area electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) scans. The developed model accurately shows that a <001> texture forms at low energy and a <111> texture occurs at higher energies parallel to the build direction but with a lower strength than the textures observed from EBSD. A validated and well-established method of combining spatial correlation and general spherical harmonics representation of texture is developed to calculate a difference score between simulations and experiments. The quantitative comparison enables effective fine-tuning of nucleation density (N 0 ) input, which shows a nonlinear relationship with increasing energy level. Future improvements in texture prediction code and a more comprehensive study of N 0 with different energy levels will further advance the optimization of LPBF Ti-6Al-4V components. These developments contribute a novel understanding of crystallographic texture formation in LPBF Ti-6Al-4V, the development of robust model validation and calibration pipeline methodologies, and provide a platform for mechanical property prediction and process parameter optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial Development of Fusion Magnet Simulation Capabilities for Performance and Safety Evaluation Using the MOOSE Framework

Fusion energy holds the promise of being a transformative technology as a carbon-neutral, sustainable source of energy. Whole device modeling and the development of fusion digital twins will be increasingly important for emerging fusion device concepts at both national laboratories and within the commercial fusion industry. However, meeting the challenge of whole device modeling of fusion energy devices requires robust, multiphysics, multiscale modeling and simulation technologies capable of running on large-scale supercomputers. Detailed analysis of individual systems at-scale is also required to ensure safe and efficient operation as well as provide the safety basis for future device designs and licensing activities. In a tokamak, toroidal and poloidal magnets confine and shape the fusion plasma to promote the fusion reaction. High plasma temperatures and high magnetic field requirements in modern design concepts (leading to high amounts of energy stored within each magnet) impose electrical, thermal, and mechanical loads on the magnet components, which in turn impacts the safety considerations of the magnet and their supporting systems. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has a history of working in this space, including development and benchmarking of the Magnetic System Circuitry Analysis Program (MSCAP) and Magnet Arcing (MAGARC) codes to study magnet quench events; notably, MAGARC was used to study quenching during the ITER Engineering Design Activity. However, these legacy codes and capabilities are not parallel and scalable, and new tools are required for future advances in this area, which leads to the INL-developed Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Developed originally for fission reactor systems under United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy modeling and simulation programs, the MOOSE framework has been well-suited to multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation needs for nuclear systems. The framework is open-source, well-tested, under continuous development and deployment, and developed to a Nuclear Quality Assurance, Level 1 software quality standard. MOOSE has also been used in the fusion space previously in several projects: INL’s Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for tritium migration, UK Atomic Energy Authority’s A Unified Resource for OpenMC (fusion) Reactor Applications (AURORA) code for fusion thermo-mechanical and neutronics analysis, and Argonne National Laboratory’s Cardinal for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and neutronics. However, to model superconducting magnets, several MOOSE enhancements are required: additions to the current MOOSE electromagnetic capabilities, new material libraries for superconductors of interest (such as YBCO), as well as fusion-specific models for thermo-mechanics. This talk will discuss initial development activities to build these capabilities in MOOSE, focusing on initial validation and benchmarking activities. Proposed coupling workflows and future work to support the simulation of fusion magnets and magnet structural assemblies for performance and safety evaluation in MOOSE will also be discussed.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of electron microbunching in laser-driven modulated downramp injection and prospects for beam-driven implementation

Plasma accelerators can generate high-energy, high-brightness electron beams over centimeter-scale distances, offering novel pathways to compact x-ray free-electron lasers. Generating beams pre-bunched at the desired radiation wavelength would significantly enhance longitudinal coherence and reduce saturation length. Plasma density-modulated downramp injection offers an in-situ way to generate such beams with nanometer-scale bunching. Here we report the first experimental evidence of this mechanism in a laser-driven wakefield accelerator, showing that modulated density downramps generate modulated electron energy spectra absent in unmodulated cases. Particle-in-cell simulations reproduce these observations and reveal bunching factors of 0.05 at 0.4 μm, with a compression factor of approximately 7. Building on this demonstration, we propose a beam-driven implementation for FACET-II to generate multi-GeV beams pre-bunched at hundreds of nanometers wavelength, with sub-micrometer emittance, kiloampere peak current, and sub-percent slice energy spread. Two-stage magnetic compression enables tunable bunching from optical to extreme ultraviolet wavelengths while achieving peak currents exceeding 100 kA. Coherent transition radiation calculations confirm diagnostic feasibility. This approach offers a promising path towards compact, high-energy pre-bunched electron sources for advanced photon science applications.

electron microbunching↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗