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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22

Elucidating the Link Between Alkali Metal Ions and Reaction-Transport Mechanisms in Cathode Electrodes for Alkali-ion Batteries

Our long-term goal is to improve the reliability of electrode materials and their ability to transport and store various metal ions for electrochemical energy storage applications. The main objective of this work was to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the role of alkali metal ions and electrochemically driven mechanical stability and kinetic properties of battery materials. The overall question was “What is the role of alkali metal ions on the electrochemical and mechanical behavior of cathode electrodes? Our guiding hypothesis was that intercalation of larger alkali metal ions (Na and K) inevitably alters the coupled transport-reaction processes during battery operation in organic electrolytes, leading to more intensive chemo-mechanical instabilities in cathode electrodes, resulting in rapid capacity fade. To validate the hypothesis, we experimentally characterized the reaction-transport processes and governing forces driving the instability of electrode materials in different alkali metal-ion environments. The project had three main tasks. The first one was to investigate intercalation-induced strains and associated stress generation, and their impact on structural deformations in composite cathode electrodes. The second task focused on identifying potential-dependent dynamic changes in the electrode-electrolyte interface in alkali metal ion batteries. The last task was focused on determining how larger alkali metal ions with slower diffusivity affect the transport-mechanics coupling at faster scan rates, compared to smaller ions with faster diffusivity in electrodes. We shortly provided the outcome of each task in the accomplishment section. This project produced 10 peer-reviewed publications (9 research papers and one review manuscript) and supported two Ph.D. students, who graduated from Oklahoma State University.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Future bioenergy expansion could alter carbon sequestration potential and exacerbate water stress in the United States

The maximum future projected bioenergy expansion potential, in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C or below, is equivalent to half of present-day croplands. We quantify the impacts of large-scale bioenergy expansion against re/afforestation, which remain elusive, using an integrated human-natural system modeling framework with explicit representation of perennial bioenergy crops. The end-of-century net carbon sequestration due to bioenergy deployment coupled with carbon capture and storage largely depends on fossil fuel displacement types, ranging from 11.4 to 31.2 PgC over the conterminous United States. These net carbon sequestration benefits are inclusive of a 10 PgC carbon release due to land use conversions and a 2.4 PgC loss of additional carbon sink capacity associated with bioenergy-driven deforestation. Moreover, nearly one-fourth of U.S. land areas will suffer severe water stress by 2100 due to either reduced availability or deteriorated quality. These broader impacts of bioenergy expansion should be weighed against the costs and benefits of re/afforestation-based strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Spectral deferred correction methods for high-order accuracy in poroelastic problems

In this work, we investigate high-order accuracy in time integration by examining two operator splitting methods for poroelastic problems: the two-pass and the spectral deferred correction (SDC) methods. To enhance the order of accuracy, the two-pass method partitions a coupled operator symmetrically, whereas the SDC method corrects truncation errors by establishing an error equation. These high-order methods are applied to underlying solution strategies, i.e., monolithic, fixed-stress sequential, and undrained sequential methods. We observe that semi-discretized systems from spatial discretization have forms similar to those of index-1 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), causing order reduction against the two-pass method when it is used in conjunction with either the monolithic or sequential method. On the other hand, the SDC in conjunction with the monolithic method exhibits the desired second-order accuracy in poroelastic problems while increasing the order of accuracy for index-1 DAEs. However, the SDC in conjunction with either of the two sequential methods does not achieve the desired order of accuracy, and maintains first order because the flow equation for poroelasticity has an additional approximation associated with the volumetric strain rate term, which does not yield exactly the same forms as those of conventional DAEs. Thus, the monolithic SDC method can achieve higher-order accuracy, but may require higher computational costs because it involves solving matrix systems larger than those for the sequential methods.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

Heterogeneous Solid Electrolyte Interphase Interactions Dictate Interface Instability in Sodium Metal Electrodes

Sodium (Na) metal batteries have attracted recent attention due to their low cost and high abundance of Na. However, the advancement of Na metal batteries is impeded due to key challenges such as dendrite growth, solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) fracture, and low Coulombic efficiency. This study examines the coupled electro‐chemo‐mechanical interactions governing the electrodeposition stability and morphological evolution at the Na/electrolyte interface. The SEI heterogeneities influence transport and reaction kinetics leading to the formation of current and stress hotspots during Na plating. Further, it is demonstrated that the heterogeneity‐induced Na metal evolution and its influence on the stress distribution critically affect the mechanical overpotential, contributing to a faster SEI failure. The analysis reveals three distinct failure mechanisms—mechanical, transport, and kinetic—that govern the onset of instabilities at the interface. Finally, a comprehensive comparative study of SEI failure in Na and lithium (Li) metal anodes illustrates that the electrochemical and mechanical characteristics of the SEI are crucial in tailoring the anode morphology and interface stability. This work delineates mechanistic stability regimes cognizant of the SEI attributes and underlying failure modes and offers important guidelines for the design of artificial SEI layers for stable Na metal electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Void coalescence and ductile failure in IN718 investigated via high-energy synchrotron X-ray tomography and diffraction

Ductile failure through the growth and coalescence of voids is of particular relevance for many engineering materials. Yet, the lack of experimental measurements of the mechanical state of the material at an appropriate length scale has limited further understanding of the regime of ductile failure. In this study, local grain-scale experimental measurements are used to determine their relevance for describing and predicting ductile failure. Additive manufactured materials, due to the presence of inherent porosity, as well as the ability to tailor internal porosity, provides a promising avenue to study ductile failure. Selective laser melting is used to manufacture a specially designed specimen with two large, internal voids, in addition to the natural porosity, which is characteristic to the production process. The initial porosity and its evolution upon tensile loading are characterized via micro tomography. Several locations of void coalescence are captured in the sample, revealing activity of multiple modes of failure. Finite element simulations, with a simplified J2 plasticity model, instantiated with the initial void structure, is deployed, in which geometric localizations of stress concentration corresponded with experimentally observed sites of coalescence but was inadequate in capturing the appropriate failure mechanism. Furthermore, from the experimental results of the far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy, the heterogeneous micromechanical state is identified and tracked around voids due to the local grain interactions. These experiments determine narrow bands of low stress triaxiality, at the onset of failure, which highlight the path of coalescence through intervoid shearing. Diffraction spot spreading analysis aided characterization of intragranular plasticity and strain heterogeneity, which can be coupled with high triaxiality to form the conditions inducive for coalescence through intervoid necking. In this study, the experimentally determined grain-scale description of the micromechanical state provides a physical basis that can accurately capture both the sites and the mechanism of void coalescence at the onset of ductile failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pervasive symmetry-lowering nanoscale structural fluctuations in the cuprate La 2−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 ⁢Cu⁢O 4

The cuprate superconductors are among the most widely studied quantum materials, yet there remain fundamental open questions regarding their electronic properties and the role of structural degrees of freedom. Recent neutron and x-ray scattering measurements uncovered exponential scaling with temperature of the strength of orthorhombic fluctuations in the tetragonal phase of La 2−𝑥⁢ Sr 𝑥 ⁢Cu⁢O 4 and Tl 2 ⁢Ba 2 ⁢Cu⁢O 6+𝛿 , unusual behavior that closely resembles prior results for the emergence of superconducting fluctuations, and that points to a common origin rooted in inherent correlated structural inhomogeneity. Here, in this study, we use neutron and x-ray diffuse scattering to provide further insight into structural fluctuations in La 2−𝑥 ⁢Sr 𝑥 ⁢Cu⁢O 4 . We perform measurements up to temperatures that approach the melting point of the undoped parent compound, and we investigate the effects of in situ in-plane uniaxial elastic stress and plastic deformation. Our neutron scattering results for the parent compound La 2 ⁢Cu⁢O 4 reveal that short-range orthorhombic fluctuations persist to the maximum experimental temperature of nearly 1000 K, i.e., to a significant fraction of the crystallization temperature. At this temperature, the spatial characteristic length extracted from the momentum-space data is still about three lattice constants. The neutron scattering experiment enables quasistatic discrimination and reveals that the response is increasingly dynamic at higher temperatures. We also find that neither compressive elastic stress along the tetragonal [110] direction nor irreversible plastic deformation activating the ⟨100⟩⁢[001] slip system significantly alter the robust orthorhombic fluctuations. Overall, these results support the notion that these fluctuations couple to subtle, underlying inhomogeneity that underpins the cuprate phase diagram. Finally, in La 1.8⁢ Sr 0.2⁢ Cu⁢O 4 , we uncover low-energy structural fluctuations at a nominally forbidden reflection that are distinct from the orthorhombic distortions. While the origin of these fluctuations is not clear, they might be related to the presence of extended defects such as dislocations or stacking faults.

Spieker, R. J. [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, M↗

Novel Tube Design for Superheater Heat Exchanger Enabled Via Additive Manufacturing

Superheater tubes are critical boiler components that operate at relatively higher temperatures and pressure. Amongst the primary concerns for these tubes is the deposition of ash particles on the tube surface, leading to the reduced thickness of the tube due to material corrosion, consequently causing early creep failure of the component. In this research, a novel tube design has been proposed which resembles a teardrop or ogive shape to reduce the drag and concurrently improve the creep life of the superheater tubes. To administer the practicality of novel tubes, metal additive manufacturing (AM), for instance, laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF), has been proposed. These unconventional designs were assessed and compared with the baseline circular tube design for mechanical design requirements (hoop stress and creep life) and the particle and flue gas flow characteristics around the differently shaped tubes. A thermomechanical finite element (FE) analysis was performed for hoop stress calculations. This study also emphasizes on effect of circumferential thermal variation on hoop stress distribution in tubes. Therefore, a detailed two-dimensional (2D) thermal simulation has been performed to report the circumferential thermal variation on the tube. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis coupled with particle tracing was performed for gas flow visualization and particle tracing around the proposed shapes and baseline circular-shaped tube design. The Schlieren optic setup was built and leveraged for qualitative validation of the proposed design. The complete design methodology established in the paper shows teardrop-shaped tubes better in terms of drag and creep life in contrast to the circular-shaped tube.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Giant Orbital Anisotropy with Strong Spin–Orbit Coupling Established at the Pseudomorphic Interface of the Co/Pd Superlattice

Orbital anisotropy at interfaces in magnetic heterostructures has been key to pioneering spin–orbit-related phenomena. However, modulating the interface’s electronic structure to make it abnormally asymmetric has been challenging because of lack of appropriate methods. Here, the authors report that low-energy proton irradiation achieves a strong level of inversion asymmetry and unusual strain at interfaces in [Co/Pd] superlattices through nondestructive, selective removal of oxygen from Co3O4/Pd superlattices during irradiation. Structural investigations corroborate that progressive reduction of Co3O4into Co establishes pseudomorphic growth with sharp interfaces and atypically large tensile stress. The normal component of orbital to spin magnetic moment at the interface is the largest among those observed in layered Co systems, which is associated with giant orbital anisotropy theoretically confirmed, and resulting very large interfacial magnetic anisotropy is observed. All results attribute not only to giant orbital anisotropy but to enhanced interfacial spin–orbit coupling owing to the pseudomorphic nature at the interface. They are strongly supported by the observation of reversal of polarity of temperature-dependent Anomalous Hall signal, a signature of Berry phase. This work suggests that establishing both giant orbital anisotropy and strong spin–orbit coupling at the interface is key to exploring spintronic devices with new functionalities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Novel Cell-Type-Specific Drought-Responsive Proteins in Root Tips of Field-Grown Perennial Switchgrass

The root-tip region of plants, including the root cap, forms the most basal terminal of the root and exhibits a high degree of cellular complexity in terms of morphology, cytological function, and interaction with environmental cues in the soil. Cells in this region follow a developmental trajectory, transitioning from stem cells to meristematic cells, and ultimately to fully differentiated cell types. However, our understanding of root-tip cell-type specific proteomic responses to abiotic stresses, such as drought, particularly under field conditions, remains limited. This study aimed to identify spatially resolved, cell type-specific proteomes in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) root tips under drought stress. Root tips were collected from seven-year-old, field-grown switchgrass ‘Alamo’ plants excavated under both well-watered and long-term drought conditions. Cell type-specific proteins were identified using laser capture microdissection (LCM) coupled with nanoPOTS (Nanodroplet Processing in One Pot for Trace Samples) and nano-LC-MS proteomics analysis. Five distinct cell types were targeted: (1) cells in the quiescent center and stem cell niche (QuC), (2) protodermal epidermal cells (PEC) in the meristematic zone, (3) epidermal cells in the transition and elongation zones above the root cap (Epi), (4) peripheral root cap cells (PRC), forming 2–3 layers below the PEC and 1–2 layers above the root border cells, and (5) columella root cap cells (Col) comprising of the columella initials and a single underlying layer of cells undergoing active growth. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clear separation among the five targeted cell types, confirming distinct proteomic profiles. Proteins predominantly enriched in each cell type were linked to distinct cellular functions, with QuC cells showing involvement in chromosomal behavior, DNA replication, and mitosis—key processes for stem cell niche regulation. Drought stress resulted in alterations of proteostasis, as evidenced by significant decreases in ribosomal proteins and increases in protein synthesis inhibitors. Moreover, drought stress induced unique cell-type–specific proteins involved in phytohormone biosynthesis and signaling pathways, including auxin, cytokinin, and jasmonic acid. In particular, QuC cells were more highly enriched in proteins associated with DNA repair and mitotic processes. Metabolic pathways related to amino acids, carbohydrates, and lipids were differentially affected in a cell-type–dependent manner, whereas general stress-responsive proteins exhibited consistent changes across all five cell types. Overall, this study provides unique spatially resolved, cell-type-specific proteomic profiles in root tips, representing a significant advancement in our understanding of the cellular mechanisms underlying plant responses to drought stress in natural field conditions.

perennial grass↗

A complete grain-level assessment of the stress-strain evolution and associated deformation response in polycrystalline alloys

Polycrystalline alloys are used pervasively across structural applications contingent upon extensive experimental testing. A statistically representative number of tests are required to expose the variability in the material's performance, as a result of non-uniform microstructures and associated micromechanical fields. In a more direct means of capturing this pertinent information, multi-modal experimental techniques are presented to measure and track the complete micromechanical state, evolving during loading, of each and every grain within the regions of interest. Specifically, a combination of high-energy X-ray diffraction microscopy and digital image correlation coupled with electron backscatter diffraction are conducted on a specimen for each of the alloys, Haynes 282 and Ti7Al. The results of the multi-modal analysis definitively demonstrate that the degree of heterogeneity increases with deformation level and is used to assess the number of grains necessary for a representative volume element description of the stress state for each of these materials. Moreover, higher resolution imaging is used for identification of the slip system activity and subsequently used to study slip transmission events. An accurate knowledge of the resolved shear stress in adjacent grains (grain interactions) is demonstrated to be a key descriptor of the slip transmission events.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemo-Mechanics of α-V 2 O 5 During Lithiation and Implications for Rechargeable Battery Cathodes

Chemo-mechanical degradation of layered oxide electrodes is strongly influenced by crystallographic anisotropy, local stress evolution, and ion insertion, yet the intrinsic mechanical response of layered materials remains incompletely understood. Indeed, most prior studies have focused on polycrystalline materials but single crystals enable direct observation of coupling between anisotropic ion diffusion and mechanical response. This study aims to determine how crystallographic anisotropy and lithiation affect deformation, fracture, and mechanical properties in single-crystal V 2 O 5 , and compares this behavior with polycrystalline counterparts. Polycrystalline V 2 O 5 thin films and single-crystal α-V 2 O 5 were studied using nanoindentation, scanning electron microscopy, focused ion beam cross-sectioning, and Raman spectroscopy. Single crystals were tested in pristine and chemically lithiated states, including experiments in which crystals were first plastically deformed via nanoindentation and subsequently lithiated. Polycrystalline films exhibited significantly higher hardness and elastic modulus than single crystals. Single crystals indented normal to the exposed (001) basal plane exhibited pronounced anisotropic deformation, including directional slip, crystallographically-guided cracking, anisotropic crack propagation, interlayer separation, and shear localization. Lithiation caused substantial softening, reduced hardness and modulus, and suppressed displacement bursts during nanoindentation, while previously indented regions showed crack formation and growth upon lithiation. Mechanical behavior of α-V 2 O 5 is strongly governed by crystallographic anisotropy and further altered by lithiation, with pre-existing deformation serving as a strong driver of fracture during ion insertion. These findings illuminate the coupling among ion insertion, deformation, and fracture in layered oxides and provide a basis for understanding and mitigating mechanical failure in electrochemical energy-storage materials.

Anisotropy↗

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Exhaled breath biomarkers of influenza infection and influenza vaccination

Respiratory viral infections are considered a major public health threat, and breath metabolomics can provide new ways to detect and understand how specific viruses affect the human pulmonary system. In this pilot study, we characterized the metabolic composition of human breath for an early diagnosis and differentiation of influenza viral infection, as well as other types of upper respiratory viral infections. We first studied the non-specific effects of planned seasonal influenza vaccines on breath metabolites in healthy subjects after receiving the immunization. We then investigated changes in breath content from hospitalized patients with flu-like symptoms and confirmed upper respiratory viral infection. The exhaled breath was sampled using a custom-made breath condenser, and exhaled breath condensate (EBC) samples were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to quadruplole-time-of-flight mass spectrometer (LC-qTOF). All metabolomic data was analysed using both targeted and untargeted approaches to detect specific known biomarkers from inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers, as well as new molecules associated with specific infections. We were able to find clear differences between breath samples collected before and after flu vaccine administration, together with potential biomarkers that are related to inflammatory processes and oxidative stress. Moreover, we were also able to discriminate samples from patients with flu-related symptoms that were diagnosed with confirmatory respiratory viral panels (RVPs). RVP positive and negative differences were identified, as well as differences between specific viruses defined. These results provide very promising information for the further study of the effect of influenza A and other viruses in human systems by using a simple and non-invasive specimen like breath.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence for Multiphysics Nuclear Design Optimization with Additive Manufacturing

The geometric flexibility of additively manufactured metals and ceramics generates a very large and open design space that requires advanced modeling and simulation tools for physics simulations and the rigorous definition of design problems. This effort deploys artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to understand the design space, evaluate potential designs, and more efficiently generate optimized results. The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is leveraging advances in several scientific areas—including materials, manufacturing, sensors and control systems, data analytics, and high-fidelity modeling and simulation—to accelerate the design, manufacturing, qualification, and deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. Through a manufacturing-informed design approach, the TCR program seeks to integrate digital data for rapid nuclear innovation; accelerate the adoption of advances in manufacturing, materials, and computational sciences for nuclear applications; and dramatically reduce deployment costs and timelines for new nuclear reactor technologies. This report documents efforts under the TCR program to leverage advanced modeling and simulation techniques driven by AI/ML algorithms on high-performance computing (HPC) systems to yield more optimized TCR core designs. A multiphysics ML surrogate model was developed to run on the HPC architectures. The surrogate model is trained on high-fidelity simulation data of coupled neutronics and thermofluidics and is used to quickly evaluate thousands of candidate core designs in parallel, which drives the evolution of the cooling channel shapes to minimize temperature peaking and material stress. Outcomes from these activities provide design information and feedback into the core design efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗