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DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

NASA NTRS1989

A comparison of software for the modeling and control of flexible systems

A researcher proposes a cooperative effort among specialists who use or develop software for simulating and analyzing the control of flexible aerospace systems. A comparison of existing software for modeling control systems and flexible structures, applied to several example problems would be quite valuable. The comparison would indicate computational efficiency and capabilities with respect to handling nonlinearities and graphical output. Because of the diversity of applications of such software, the researcher believes that the proposed cooperative effort can transcend projects involving specific applications. Comparisons of software capability and efficiency can be made and gaps can be identified. In this way the results of the cooperative effort can provide guidance for individual projects. Several charts which outline the objectives and approach of the proposed cooperative effort are given here.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using CFD as Rocket Injector Design Tool: Recent Progress at Marshall Space Flight Center

The choice of tools used for injector design is in a transitional phase between exclusive reliance on the empirically based correlations and extensive use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) Program goals emphasizing lower costs and increased reliability have produced a need to enable CFD as an injector design tool in a shorter time frame. This is the primary objective of the Staged Combustor Injector Technology Task currently under way at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The documentation of this effort begins with a very brief status of current injector design tools. MSFC's vision for use of CFD as a tool for combustion devices design is stated and discussed with emphasis on the injector. The concept of the Simulation Readiness Level (SRL), comprised of solution fidelity, robustness and accuracy, is introduced and discussed. This quantitative measurement is used to establish the gap between the current state of demonstrated capability and that necessary for regular use in the design process. MSFC's view of the validation process is presented and issues associated with obtaining the necessary data are noted and discussed. Three current experimental efforts aimed at generating validation data are presented. The importance of uncertainty analysis to understand the data quality is also demonstrated. First, a brief status of current injector design tools is provided as context for the current effort. Next, the MSFC vision for using CFD as an injector design tool is stated. A generic CFD-based injector design methodology is also outlined and briefly discussed. Three areas where MSFC is using injector CFD analyses for program support will be discussed. These include the Integrated Powerhead Development (IPD) engine which uses hydrogen and oxygen propellants in a full flow staged combustion (FFSC) cycle and the TR-107 and the RS84 engine both of which use RP-1 and oxygen in an ORSC cycle. Finally, an attempt is made to objectively summarize what progress has been made at MSFC in enabling CFD as an injector design tool.

Tucker, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Schedule Analysis Software Saves Time for Project Planners

Since the early 2000s, a resource management team at Marshall Space Flight Center has developed and improved the Schedule Test and Assessment Tool, a software add-on capable of analyzing, summarizing, and finding logic gaps in project schedules. Companies like Lanham, Maryland-based Vantage Systems Inc. use the tool to manage NASA projects, but it has also been released for free to more than 200 US companies, agencies, and other entities.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Current Planetary Boundary Layer Retrieval Capabilities from Space

The PBL over land remains a significant gap in our water and energy cycle understanding from space. This work combines unique NASA satellite and model products to demonstrate the ability of current sensors (advanced IR sounding and lidar) to retrieve PBL properties and in turn their potential to be used globally to evaluate and improve weather and climate prediction models. While incremental progress has been made in recent AIRS retrieval versions, insufficient vertical resolution remains in terms of detecting PBL properties. Lidar shows promise in terms of detecting vertical gradients (and PBLh) in the lower troposphere, but daytime conditions over land remain a challenge due to noise, and their coverage is limited to approximately 2 weeks or longer return times.

AIRS↗

NASA NTRS2021

The First Global 883 GHz Cloud Ice Survey: IceCube Level 1 Data Calibration, Processing and Analysis

Sub-millimeter (sub-mm, 200 - 1000 GHz) wavelengths contribute a unique capability to fill-in the sensitivity gap between operational visible/infrared (VIS/IR) and microwave (MW) remote sensing for atmosphere cloud ice and snow. Being able of penetrating cloud to measure cloud ice mass and microphysical properties in the middle to upper troposphere, this is a critical spectrum range for us to understand the connection between cloud ice and precipitation processes.5As the first space-borne 883 GHz radiometer, IceCube mission was NASA’s latest effort in spaceflight demonstration of a commercial sub-mm radiometer technology. Successfully launched from the International Space Station, IceCube is essentially a free-running radiometer and collected valuable 15-month measurements of atmosphere and cloud ice. This paper describes the detailed procedures for Level 1 data calibration, processing and validation. The scientific quality and values of IceCube data are then discussed, including radiative transfer model validation and evaluation, as well as the unique spatial distribution10and diurnal cycle of cloud ice that are revealed for the first time on a quasi-global scale at this frequency.

IceCube↗

NASA NTRS2021

The First Global 883 GHz Cloud Ice Survey: IceCube Level 1 Data Calibration, Processing and Analysis

Jie Gong↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exemplifying the Usability of NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Potential Risk Factors that Predispose Wildfires in the Rural-Urban Areas of Córdoba, Argentina

In recent years, Córdoba, Argentina has experienced intensified wildfire activity, with fires in 2020 alone scorching over 300,000 hectares within the province. Potential causes for the increased burn area include climate change, the expanding wildland-urban interface, and inadequate fire management practices. Previous studies have produced fire frequency maps for the region, but gaps remain in understanding the parameters influencing fire behavior and growth. This project partnered with the Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria to address these gaps by utilizing NASA’s remote sensing capabilities to analyze key wildfire risk factors. Using a combination of data inputs from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Aqua/Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), a ten-year baseline was created using environmental variables to determine anomalies that influenced the fires of 2020. Of these anomalies, the baseline data were used to calculate the statistical significance of the environmental factors to the wildfires. This study found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation were the strongest indicators for the September 2020 wildfires. Using the environmental risk factors, this project created a wildfire risk map for the province of Córdoba, which can be used to enhance partner’s fire management strategies and decision-making processes.

Chassety Raines↗

DOE OSTI2018

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) Winter Intensive Operational Period: Aerodynamic Particle Sizer Field Campaign Report

An aerodynamic particle sizer spectrometer (APS, model 3321 by TSI Inc., Shoreview, Minnesota) was deployed at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory during the second (winter) intensive operational period (IOP) of the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. Data were collected from January 9 through February 26, 2018, covering the second deployment of the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) aircraft within ACE-ENA. The standard ENA instrument suite does not provide measurements of aerosol particle size distribution for diameters greater than one micron. Properties of coarse-mode (super-micron) aerosols are rarely measured, although super-micron particles can play an important role in the aerosol life cycle, affecting aerosol optical properties and cloud nuclei activity (e.g., Clarke et al. 2003). The APS was deployed to fill this gap in particle size measurements: it is capable of measuring size-resolved concentration of the aerosols in the 0.5-20 μm range (aerodynamic diameter). The APS was installed in the aerosol trailer to sample through the main stack. Special attention was given to selection of the instrument location (just below the main stack) to minimize particle losses in the connecting lines. Most atmospheric aerosols are hygroscopic, so the measurement of the aerosol size distributions should either be performed in a controlled humidity environment or accompanied by concurrent measurement of the temperature and humidity of the sample air. The latter strategy was used during this deployment: a high-precision humidity/temperature transmitter (model EE08 by E+E Elektonik GMBH, Engerwitzdorf, Germany) was mounted in the APS sampling line immediately upstream of the APS inlet. A dedicated laptop computer was used for data collection and communications. The APS was controlled with vendor-supplied software (Aerosol Instrument Manager, ver. 10.1, TSI); aerosol size distribution data were collected over a period of 55 seconds and converted to one-minute averages. Temperature and humidity analog signals were acquired via analog-to-digital converter (ADC) module (model WTAIN-M by Weeder Technologies, Fort Walton Beach, Florida) using vendor-supplied software (ModCom) with 1- sec resolution. In post-processing, the APS data were exported from TSI proprietary format into “comma-separated value” American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) files and matched with appropriately averaged temperature and humidity data. Two significant periods of missing data were caused by local power outages. Vendor-supplied software was not designed for unattended operation: it needs to be manually restarted including sensor configuration setup.

ACE-ENA, Azores, ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol sp↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of the FaMUS Methodology to the NSUF Research Outputs Through End of 2019

The Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) is one of a diverse group of DOE user facilities. It is focused on advancing the understanding of radiation effects in nuclear fuels and materials in support of nuclear energy applications. The NSUF has been operating since 2007 and has developed a significant portfolio of supported research. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider its achievements and to determine its successes and shortfalls. As part of this analysis of the NSUF research program, the NSUF has developed a novel and elegant formalism for assessing the current level of understanding of nuclear fuels and materials for use in nuclear environments: the NSUF Fuels and Materials Understanding Scale (FaMUS). The FaMUS methodology is being applied to the NSUF portfolio on an ongoing basis to quantify the progress made. This report summarizes the status of the assessment exercise and highlights general lessons learned. This examination will facilitate capability balancing of future research by identifying gaps in knowledge, understanding, testing, and demonstration allowing the NSUF program office in conjunction with DOE-NE to direct resources to important aspects of the DOE-NE mission using “emphasize & enhance”, “maintain”, and “encourage excellence” classifications as well as providing increased transparency to researchers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Conceptual Drivers for an Exploration Medical System

Interplanetary spaceflight, such as NASA's proposed three-year mission to Mars, provides unique and novel challenges when compared with human spaceflight to date. Extended distance and multi-year missions introduce new elements of operational complexity and additional risk. These elements include: inability to resupply medications and consumables, inability to evacuate injured or ill crew, uncharted psychosocial conditions, and communication delays that create a requirement for some level of autonomous medical capability. Because of these unique challenges, the approaches used in prior programs have limited application to a Mars mission. On a Mars mission, resource limitations will significantly constrain available medical capabilities, and require a paradigm shift in the approach to medical system design and risk mitigation for crew health. To respond to this need for a new paradigm, the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element is assessing each Mars mission phase-transit, surface stay, rendezvous, extravehicular activity, and return-to identify and prioritize medical needs for the journey beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). ExMC is addressing both planned medical operations, and unplanned contingency medical operations that meld clinical needs and research needs into a single system. This assessment is being used to derive a gap analysis and studies to support meaningful medical capabilities trades. These trades, in turn, allow the exploration medical system design to proceed from both a mission centric and ethics-based approach, and to manage the risks associated with the medical limitations inherent in an exploration class mission. This paper outlines the conceptual drivers used to derive medical system and vehicle needs from an integrated vision of how medical care will be provided within this paradigm. Keywords: (Max 6 keywords: exploration, medicine, spaceflight, Mars, research, NASA)

Antonsen, Erik↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proof-of-Concept for a Long-Term Health Metric to Quantify End of Mission Health Status in Astronauts

NASA has long used Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. For spaceflight medical risk, the Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a significant step towards robustly quantifying the risk to crew health during exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively characterize and assess risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the entire Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. To fill this gap, the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project aims to perform risk characterization for the CHP system by assessing performance risk in addition to medical risk. This effort also includes quantifying Long-Term Health (LTH) risk in addition to in-mission risk outcomes within the CHP-PRA results. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. A proof-of-concept LTH risk metric is based on medical condition end-state, as defined by the Evidence Library, capturing the spaceflight specific medical impacts persisting into post-flight[1]. Condition outcomes in the Evidence Library progress through three Clinical Phases (CP): the diagnostic phase (CP1), the treatment/convalescent phase (CP2), and the end-state phase (CP3) which represents the detrimental effects of the condition after the crew member has recovered to the maximal extent. Each CP has an associated Task Impairment (TI), defined as the degree of crew incapacity due to experiencing the condition, and is quantified with a 0-1 range. Conditions with an associated CP3 (e.g. Sepsis, Traumatic Hypovolemic Shock, Sudden Cardiac Arrest, etc.) typically have serious consequences that can cause an astronaut to be fully or partially debilitated throughout the remainder of the mission. Consequently, the Cumulative CP3 TI End-of-Mission Health Status Metric is developed by CHP-PRA to quantify the cumulative effects of all conditions which progressed to the CP3 state throughout the entirety of the mission. Hence, this End-of-Mission Health Status Metric attempts to serve as an indicator of an astronaut’s health state at the time of landing. The severity of the lingering effects of in-mission medical events are dependent on mission activities and the level of available in-mission medical care. This allows the associated cumulative TI metric to be used in comparison with the crew’s end of mission health status for different levels of in-mission resources. This presentation provides the strategy for using CP3 as an LTH metric component, as well as a proof-of-concept demonstration of LTH risk characterization using this component.

long term health↗

DOE OSTI2023

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. Here, we apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl–KCl, NaCl–CaCl 2 , KCl–NdCl 3 , CaCl 2 –NdCl 3 , and KCl–ThCl 4 . Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Filling the Gaps in Understanding Solar Flares

Solar flares provide a laboratory for plasma physics and magnetohydrodynamic processes. While the mechanism of transferring magnetic flux between topological domains via reconnection is accepted in a general sense, some of the finer details remain to be worked out: What elusive thresholds, pertaining to which physical quantities, determine the initiation of flux transfer that cascades into the energy release observed in the impulsive phase of a flare? What role does turbulence play in accelerating or prolonging magnetic reconnection? To what degree do magnetic waves contribute to the transport of energy, or to the acceleration of particles in the impulsive phase? While our innate human curiosity and our instinctive impulse to explore compel us to investigate these intricacies of million-degree magnetized plasmas, the impacts of space weather on our technology-dependent society and economy obligate us to pursue a quantitative understanding, with the ultimate goal being trustworthy predictive capabilities. In this presentation, I will touch upon a few aspects of solar flares where improvements in observational and analytical capabilities can be expected to help us fill gaps in our understanding, as well as some of the recent, current, and near-term developments that are carrying the field forward.

David E. McKenzie↗

DOE OSTI2019

Durable aluminate toughened zirconate composite thermal barrier coating (TBC) materials for high temperature operation

Research on advanced thermal barrier coating (TBC) materials capable of operating beyond 1200°C has primarily focused on the rare earth zirconate pyrochlores, particularly gadolinium zirconate (Gd 2 Zr 2 O 7 – GZO). The drawback of this material is a significant reduction in durability due to a low fracture toughness. This study investigates utilization of a thermodynamically compatible gadolinia alumina perovskite (GdAlO 3 – GAP) toughening phase to improve the durability of GZO. Dense pellets were fabricated to assess the material properties with minimal microstructural influence. Thermal stability, elastic modulus, hardness, indentation fracture resistance and erosion durability were evaluated for GZO, GAP, and composite pellets containing 10, 30, and 50 wt.% GAP. It was demonstrated that GAP and GZO are thermodynamically compatible through 1600°C and thus capable of operating well beyond the limits of traditional 7 wt.% yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ). Grain sizes are maintained due to a lack of diffusion, and thus microstructural stability is enhanced. The GAP fracture toughness was shown to be over 2X that of GZO while exhibiting a lower elastic modulus and similar hardness. The 50:50 GZO-GAP composite exhibited a 63% reduction in the absolute erosion rate, demonstrating the immense toughening capabilities of this system. The implications for composite TBCs utilizing this system are discussed, along with future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Resource Prospector (RP) - Early Prototyping and Development

The Resource Prospector (RP) is an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology demonstration mission under study by the NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate's (HEOMD) Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division. The mission, currently planned to launch in 2020, will demonstrate extraction of oxygen from lunar regolith to validate ISRU capability. The mission will address key Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and ultimately Mars, as well as meet the strategic goals of the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), offered by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). In this roadmap, the use of local resources is specifically addressed relating to human exploration. RP will provide knowledge to inform the selection of future mission destinations, support the development of exploration systems, and reduce the risk associated with human exploration. Expanding human presence beyond low-Earth orbit to asteroids and Mars will require the maximum possible use of local materials, so-called in-situ resources. The moon presents a unique destination to conduct robotic investigations that advance ISRU capabilities, as well as providing significant exploration and science value. Lunar regolith contains useful resources such as oxygen, water, silicon, and light metals, like aluminum and titanium. Oxygen can be separated from the regolith for life support (breathable air), or used to create rocket propellant (oxidizer). Regolith can be used to protect against radiation exposure, be processed into solar cells, or used to manufacture construction materials such as bricks and glass. RP will characterize the constituents and distribution of water and other volatiles at the poles of the Moon, enabling innovative uses of local resources, in addition to validating ISRU capabilities. This capability, as well as a deeper understanding of regolith, will be valuable in the exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and Mars. In order to reduce risk and explore system designs, the RP project is attempting two-fold approaches to development as it looks towards flight. We continue to explore flight planning, requirements, and interfaces definition by using Engineering Test Units (ETUs), looking towards lunar deployment, while also using fiscal year 2015 to develop, build and test an earth-terrestrial prototype rover and payload system. This terrestrial prototype, called "RP15", is built to both inform the system design, and to be a partnership advocacy tool for this unique mission. RP15 must be affordable within the resource and time constraints of fiscal year 2015, while working to the following Needs, Goals, and Objectives provided by HEOMD/AES: 1. Demonstrate rover mobility in a 1g environment 2. The Surface Segment (prototype rover + payload system) shall represent the flight system concept with as much fidelity as affordable (limited by cost and schedule) - Surface Segment shall be the approximate size/dimension/footprint -Surface Segment shall package all the expected devices (instruments, systems, etc.), even if some facets are mocked-up due to time/cost constraints -Overall Surface Segment fidelity negotiable to make achievable 3. Priority should be given to illustrating mission functionality over support functionality, which exists solely to support mission functionality This paper will provide an overview of RP project developments, including the design and build, capturing the development and initial integrated testing of RP15 in relevant environments.

Lunar↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Can Floor Covering Influence Buildings’ Demand Flexibility?

Although the thermal mass of floors in buildings has been demonstrated to help shift cooling load, there is still a lack of information about how floor covering can influence the floor’s load shifting capability and buildings’ demand flexibility. To fill this gap, we estimated demand flexibility based on the daily peak cooling load reduction for different floor configurations and regions, using EnergyPlus simulations. As a demand response strategy, we used precooling and global temperature adjustment. The result demonstrated an adverse impact of floor covering on the building’s demand flexibility. Specifically, under the same demand response strategy, the daily peak cooling load reductions were up to 20–34% for a concrete floor whereas they were only 17–29% for a carpet-covered concrete floor. This is because floor covering hinders convective coupling between the concrete floor surface and the zone air and reduces radiative heat transfer between the concrete floor surface and the surrounding environment. In hot climates such as Phoenix, floor covering almost negated the concrete floor’s load shifting capability and yielded low demand flexibility as a wood floor, representing low thermal mass. Sensitivity analyses showed that floor covering’s effects can be more profound with a larger carpet-covered area, a greater temperature adjustment depth, or a higher radiant heat gain. With this effect ignored for a given building, its demand flexibility would be overestimated, which could prevent grid operators from obtaining sufficient demand flexibility to maintain a grid. Our findings also imply that for more efficient grid-interactive buildings, a traditional standard for floor design could be modified with increasing renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗