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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A numerical examination of the effect of sulfide dissolution on silicate weathering

Silicate weathering regulates climate on geological time scales as a net, climate-sensitive sink of atmospheric CO 2 . On the other hand, sulfuric acid produced through sulfide dissolution affects silicate weathering, diminishing its effectiveness as a climate regulator based on evidence from river chemistry. This study takes a theoretical approach to quantitatively examine the effect of sulfide dissolution, coupling a one-dimensional model of pyrite weathering to that of albite transformation to kaolinite. The coupled model reveals that when the reaction front of sulfide is deeper than that of silicates reacting with CO 2 , the silicate-weathering feedback on climate is not directly affected by sulfide dissolution, but only indirectly through oceanic processes such as reverse weathering and carbonate deposition. In turn, when sulfide dissolution occurs within zones of CO 2 -silicate reactions close to the surface, the feedback between climate and silicate weathering can be significantly weakened because sulfuric acid competes effectively with carbonic acid in mineral dissolution. As the depth of the sulfide reaction front can be changed by variations in water table depth, the latter feedback weakening could have occurred in concert with climate-change-driven water table fluctuations, amplifying atmospheric CO 2 variations during the Phanerozoic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

What drives forest carbon storage? The ramifications of source–sink decoupling

As the climate changes and scientists seek to project its future course, an important uncertainty lies in the response of forests. Will rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and lengthening growing seasons relieve limitations to tree growth, allowing increased carbon (C) sequestration in long-lived woody tissues and providing a negative feedback to climate change? Or will increasing heat and drought stress reduce growth and increase mortality, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change? Furthermore, to answer this question, global C cycle models simulate photosynthesis under future conditions, using simple plant C allocation schemes to estimate the amount of C sequestered in woody growth vs that allocated to short-lived pools that are more rapidly respired back to the atmosphere as CO 2 (Fatichi et al., 2014). However, there is growing evidence that these schemes are too simplistic, as wood production is frequently decoupled from photosynthesis (Delpierre et al., 2016a,b; Etzold et al., 2022), either through the passive limitation of woody tree growth by environmental conditions or active allocation prioritising other sinks. Needed, then, is an understanding of how woody growth is jointly shaped by photosynthesis (i.e. source limitation) and demand from various C sinks (i.e. sink limitation) across species and biomes (Körner, 2015). In this issue of New Phytologist, Martínez-Sancho et al. (2022; pp. 58–70) exemplifies the type of research needed to improve our ability to predict forest C sequestration under climate change, using an innovative approach to describe the seasonal course of C sequestration in tree stem growth and how it is affected by drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback

Earth's climate stability, characterized by the global radiative feedback parameter (𝜆), varies decadally due to changing surface temperature patterns. Recent variations in 𝜆 are poorly understood as coordinated model simulations typically end in 2014. We apply a convolutional neural network trained on climate model simulations to observation-based surface temperature reconstructions to estimate variations in 𝜆 up to 2025. We find that 𝜆 reached a minimum (maximum stability) around the mid 1990s (𝜆 ≃ −3 Wm −2 /K), but has since weakened significantly (𝜆 ≃ −2 Wm −2 /K). We confirm these results with climate model simulations extended to 2022. The recent 𝜆 weakening is not significantly affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Attribution reveals that warming in the subtropical Northeast Pacific is an important driver of the recently weakened feedback, confirmed by targeted experiments in E3SMv2. Our approach enables near real-time monitoring of Earth's climate stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Altered climate leads to positive density‐dependent feedbacks in a tropical wet forest

Abstract Climate change is predicted to result in warmer and drier Neotropical forests relative to current conditions. Negative density‐dependent feedbacks, mediated by natural enemies, are key to maintaining the high diversity of tree species found in the tropics, yet we have little understanding of how projected changes in climate are likely to affect these critical controls. Over 3 years, we evaluated the effects of a natural drought and in situ experimental warming on density‐dependent feedbacks on seedling demography in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico. In the +4°C warming treatment, we found that seedling survival increased with increasing density of the same species (conspecific). These positive density‐dependent feedbacks were not associated with a decrease in aboveground natural enemy pressure. If positive density‐dependent feedbacks are not transient, the diversity of tropical wet forests, which may rely on negative density dependence to drive diversity, could decline in a future warmer, drier world.

Bachelot, Benedicte↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Response of Deep Soil Carbon (LDRD Final Report)

The overarching objective of this LDRD project was to determine the vulnerability of deep soil organic carbon (SOC) to warming in the Sierra Nevada region. Deep soils (>30 cm) store more than 70% of global SOC, and increased SOC decomposition and CO 2 emissions caused by warming are potentially large climate change feedbacks. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures are expected to increase by 4°C by the year 2100, warming the land and underlying soil, and making understanding of how warming will influence deep SOC storage and persistence critical to projecting the land carbon sink. However, uncertainty remains in our process-level understanding and ability to quantify how projected warming will impact the stability of carbon in deep soils. We investigated warming effects on deep (up to 16 m) SOC stability across climate, vegetation, and soil mineralogy gradients in California. We sampled soils from the surface to bedrock (down to 16 meters) at four sites representing vastly different ecosystems across the Northern and Southern Sierra Nevada mountains. This study quantified the response of SOC concentration, distribution, and vulnerability to warming using a soil incubation experiment to warm the whole soil profile and radiocarbon and stable isotopes to assess which pools are vulnerable to loss under warming. Our results refine our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle by revealing the vulnerability of deep SOC to future changes in climate and how minerology may influence that vulnerability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil metabolome response to whole-ecosystem warming at the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments experiment

In this study, a suite of complementary environmental geochemical analyses, including NMR and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of central metabolites, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) of secondary metabolites, and lipidomics, was used to investigate the influence of organic matter (OM) quality on the heterotrophic microbial mechanisms controlling peatland CO2, CH4, and CO2:CH4 porewater production ratios in response to climate warming. Our investigations leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment, where air and peat warming were combined in a whole-ecosystem warming treatment. We hypothesized that warming would enhance the production of plant-derived metabolites, resulting in increased labile OM inputs to the surface peat, thereby enhancing microbial activity and greenhouse gas production. Because shallow peat is most susceptible to enhanced warming, increases in labile OM inputs to the surface, in particular, are likely to result in significant changes to CO2 and CH4 dynamics and methanogenic pathways. In support of this hypothesis, significant correlations were observed between metabolites and temperature consistent with increased availability of labile substrates, which may stimulate more rapid turnover of microbial proteins. An increase in the abundance of methanogenic genes in response to the increase in the abundance of labile substrates was accompanied by a shift toward acetoclastic and methylotrophic methanogenesis. Our results suggest that as peatland vegetation trends toward increasing vascular plant cover with warming, we can expect a concomitant shift toward increasingly methanogenic conditions and amplified climate–peatland feedbacks.

Wilson, Rachel M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Further, given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra: Supporting Data

Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane under anticipated end-of-century warming, we used heating rods to warm soil (by 3.8 °C) to the depth of permafrost in polygonal tundra over two growing seasons at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. This data product includes supporting data for the companion paper entitled "Large emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra", published in Nature Communications by Torn et al. This data package contains seven data files in csv format with corresponding data dictionaries and file-level metadata, describing vegetation biomass dry weight ("Utqiagvik_Vegetation_Biomass_2014.csv"), radiocarbon measurements of respired carbon dioxide ("Utqiagvik_Radiocarbon_2015_2016.csv"), surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane and associated soil temperature ("Utqiagvik_Fluxes_Temperature_2015_2016.csv"), and soil temperature measurements averaged every 15-min and 1-hr for 2015 and 2016 ("Utqiagvik_Temperature_15min_2015.csv", "Utqiagvik_Temperature_15min_2016.csv", "Utqiagvik_Temperature_1hr_2015.csv", "Utqiagvik_Temperature_1hr_2016.csv"). There are no specific software requirements to use these data. UIC Science Native Corporation facilitated our scientific research on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, which is Iñupiat land.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dispersal, habitat filtering, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography

Abstract Wetlands store 20–30% of the world’s soil carbon, and identifying the microbial controls on these carbon reserves is essential to predicting feedbacks to climate change. Although viral infections likely play important roles in wetland ecosystem dynamics, we lack a basic understanding of wetland viral ecology. Here 63 viral size-fraction metagenomes (viromes) and paired total metagenomes were generated from three time points in 2021 at seven fresh- and saltwater wetlands in the California Bodega Marine Reserve. We recovered 12,826 viral population genomic sequences (vOTUs), only 4.4% of which were detected at the same field site two years prior, indicating a small degree of population stability or recurrence. Viral communities differed most significantly among the seven wetland sites and were also structured by habitat (plant community composition and salinity). Read mapping to a new version of our reference database, PIGEONv2.0 (515,763 vOTUs), revealed 196 vOTUs present over large geographic distances, often reflecting shared habitat characteristics. Wetland vOTU microdiversity was significantly lower locally than globally and lower within than between time points, indicating greater divergence with increasing spatiotemporal distance. Viruses tended to have broad predicted host ranges via CRISPR spacer linkages to metagenome-assembled genomes, and increased SNP frequencies in CRISPR-targeted major tail protein genes suggest potential viral eco-evolutionary dynamics in response to both immune targeting and changes in host cell receptors involved in viral attachment. Together, these results highlight the importance of dispersal, environmental selection, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire soil respiration in late growing season (2023 and 2024), Kougarok Fire Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Field soil respiration data collected in 2023 and 2024 from burned and unburned tussock tundra sites in the Kougarok Fire Complex, near Nome, on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Specifically, we measured soil properties and late-growing season CO2 fluxes in patches of unique plant functional types (forbs, shrubs, and graminoids) across two years in tundra recovering from repeated wildfires over the decade. The goal was to identify the main drivers of soil respiration in Arctic tundra underlain by discontinuous permafrost that is recovering from two recent, repeated wildfires that differed in fire age and number of times burned, thereby resulting in different levels of vegetation and subsurface property changes (i.e., successional trajectories). There are five files in *.csv format with one data file and four data description files including data, dictionary, methods, terminology, and file-level metadata. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic Phase 3 project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Santos, Fernanda [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191555623)↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term measurements in a mixed-grass prairie reveal a change in soil organic carbon recalcitrance and its environmental sensitivity under warming

Soil respiration, the major pathway for ecosystem carbon (C) loss, has the potential to enter a positive feedback loop with the atmospheric CO2 due to climate warming. For reliable projections of climate-carbon feedbacks, accurate quantification of soil respiration and identification of mechanisms that control its variability are essential. Process-based models simulate soil respiration as functions of belowground C input, organic matter quality, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, evaluation and calibration of process-based models against the long-term in situ measurements are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration measured during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrate model parameters against these and other measurements collected during the experiment; and explore whether the mechanisms of C dynamics have changed over the years. Calibrating model parameters against observations of individual years substantially improved model performance in comparison to pre-calibration simulations, explaining 79–86% of variability in observed soil respiration. Interannual variation of the calibrated model parameters indicated increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. Overall, we found that (1) soil organic C became more recalcitrant in intact soil compared to root-free soil; (2) warming offset the effects of increasing C recalcitrance in intact soil and changed microbial sensitivity to moisture conditions. Furthermore, these findings indicate that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to C quality, but this decrease may be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multisystem feedbacks from a changing climate: Do altered hydrological dynamics control vadose zone carbon nutrient cycling and storage in shallow aquifer systems?

The vadose zone, which extends from upper soils to the subsurface water table, consists of many distinct habitats (including the critical zone), each with its own physical characteristics. Upper soils are typically richer in organic carbon chemical diversity and concentration, while deeper portions near the water table have less labile carbon and a greater percentage of humic acids and other long-lived organics. The availability of carbon and oxygen constrain the habitability of these zones. Typically, microorganisms (bacteria, archaea, and fungi) extend throughout the vadose zone and potentially deeper into the bedrock, while higher eukaryotes (i.e., arthropods and plants) are limited to the surficial soils. An exception to this is deep taproots of some tree species that can extend tens of meters into the subsurface. In subsurface systems, microbial metabolisms are constrained by the availability of carbon (organic and inorganic) and electron acceptors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition

Here, we report diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗