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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗
DOE OSTI2023

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO 2 in the Superparameterized CESM

African easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO 2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Spherical harmonic analysis of a synoptic climatology generated with a global general circulation model

Spherical harmonic analysis was used to analyze the observed climatological (C) fields of temperature at 850 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, and sea level pressure. The spherical harmonic method was also applied to the corresponding "model climatological" fields (M) generated by a general circulation model, the "GISS climate model." The climate model was initialized with observed data for the first of December 1976 at 00. GMT and allowed to generate five years of meteorological history. Monthly means of the above fields for the five years were computed and subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. It was found from the comparison of the spectral components of both sets, M and C, that the climate model generated reasonable 500 mb geopotential heights. The model temperature field at 850 mb exhibited a generally correct structure. However, the meridional temperature gradient was overestimated and overheating of the continents was observed in summer.

Christidis, Z. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of surface temperature variations due to changes in sky and solar flux with elevation

The magnitude of elevation effects due to changes in solar and sky fluxes, on interpretation of single thermal images and composite products such as temperature difference and thermal inertia, are examined. Simple expressions are derived for the diurnal behavior of the two parameters, by fitting field observations in one tropic (Hawaii) and two semi-arid climates (Wyoming and Colorado) (Hummer-Miller, 1981). It is shown that flux variations with elevation can cause changes in the mean diurnal temperature gradient from -4 to -14 degrees C/km, evaluated at 2000 m. Changes in the temperature-difference gradient of 1 to 2 degrees C/km are also produced which is equivalent to an effective thermal-inertia gradient of 100 W s(exp 1/2)/sq m-K-km. An example is presented showing an elevation effect of 12 degrees C on the day and night thermal scenes of a test site in Arizona.

Hummer-Miller, S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use

Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Orbital controls on Namib Desert hydroclimate over the past 50,000 years

Abstract Despite being one of the world’s oldest deserts, and the subject of decades of research, evidence of past climate change in the Namib Desert is extremely limited. As such, there is significant debate regarding the nature and drivers of climate change in the low-latitude drylands of southwestern Africa. Here we present data from stratified accumulations of rock hyrax urine that provide the first continuous high-resolution terrestrial climate record for the Namib Desert spanning the past 50,000 yr. These data, spanning multiple sites, show remarkably coherent variability that is clearly linked to orbital cycles and the evolution and perturbation of global boundary conditions. Contrary to some previous predictions of southwestern African climate change, we show that orbital-scale cycles of hydroclimatic variability in the Namib Desert region are in phase with those of the northern tropics, with increased local summer insolation coinciding with periods of increased aridity. Supported by climate model simulations, our analyses link this to variations in position and intensity of atmospheric pressure cells modulated by hemispheric and land-sea temperature gradients. We conclude that hydroclimatic variability at orbital time scales is driven by the combined influence of direct low-latitude insolation forcing and the influence of remote controls on the South Atlantic anticyclone, with attendant impacts on upwelling and sea-surface temperature variations.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of TRACER pre-convective conditions and mesoscale circulations using small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS)

Improved comprehension of the physical processes governing convective cloud formation and lifecycle are of critical importance for understanding and predicting future climate states. The influence of these clouds on the planetary energy budget, including on precipitation, is significant. Things are particularly complex in coastal regimes, where gradients in aerosol particle properties, localized circulations such as sea breezes, and large population centers are found. To date, numerical models struggle to accurately represent these critical clouds and are therefore challenged to provide a realistic view on the planetary energy budget. Through the proposed research, we deployed two uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) equipped with a variety of instruments alongside sensors deployed by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for the TRACER (Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment) field campaign. The two small UAS platforms consisted of a CU RAAVEN fixed-wing airplane and an OU CopterSonde system, with the copter collecting frequent vertical profiles of thermodynamic and kinematic variables such as temperature, pressure, wind and humidity. At the same time, the fixed-wing captured horizontal gradients of these quantities and aerosol size distribution. These systems were deployed south of the Houston metro area, in an area that is impacted by the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze on a daily basis. These observations offer enhanced and complementary perspectives to those provided by the DOE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) which is was deployed in southeast Houston, and an ancillary site in a more rural location west of the urban Houston area. Quality-controlled versions of the UAS data were collected and posted on the DOE ARM data archive after the conclusion of the campaign where they are accessible by the research community and general public. The UAS perspective offers revolutionary insight into key spatial and temporal effects that have not been evaluated previously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recovery of Forest Structure Following Large-Scale Windthrows in the Northwestern Amazon

The dynamics of forest recovery after windthrows (i.e., broken or uprooted trees by wind) are poorly understood in tropical forests. The Northwestern Amazon (NWA) is characterized by a higher occurrence of windthrows, greater rainfall, and higher annual tree mortality rates (~2%) than the Central Amazon (CA). We combined forest inventory data from three sites in the Iquitos region of Peru, with recovery periods spanning 2, 12, and 22 years following windthrow events. Study sites and sampling areas were selected by assessing the windthrow severity using remote sensing. At each site, we recorded all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 10 cm along transects, capturing the range of windthrow severity from old-growth to highly disturbed (mortality > 60%) forest. Across all damage classes, tree density and basal area recovered to >90% of the old-growth values after 20 years. Aboveground biomass (AGB) in old-growth forest was 380 (±156) Mg ha -1 . In extremely disturbed areas, AGB was still reduced to 163 (±68) Mg ha -1 after 2 years and 323 (± 139) Mg ha -1 after 12 years. This recovery rate is ~50% faster than that reported for Central Amazon forests. The faster recovery of forest structure in our study region may be a function of its higher productivity and adaptability to more frequent and severe windthrows. These varying rates of recovery highlight the importance of extreme wind and rainfall on shaping gradients of forest structure in the Amazon, and the different vulnerabilities of these forests to natural disturbances whose severity and frequency are being altered by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on (1) potential for acclimation, (2) response to elevated CO 2 , (3) role of the microbiome, and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Land surface model parameter optimisation using in situ flux data: comparison of gradient-based versus random search algorithms (a case study using ORCHIDEE v1.9.5.2)

Land surface models (LSMs), which form the land component of earth system models, rely on numerous processes for describing carbon, water and energy budgets, often associated with highly uncertain parameters. Data assimilation (DA) is a useful approach for optimising the most critical parameters in order to improve model accuracy and refine future climate predictions. In this study, we compare two different DA methods for optimising the parameters of seven plant functional types (PFTs) of the ORCHIDEE LSM using daily averaged eddy-covariance observations of net ecosystem exchange and latent heat flux at 78 sites across the globe. We perform a technical investigation of two classes of minimisation methods – local gradient-based (the L-BFGS-B algorithm, limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm with bound constraints) and global random search (the genetic algorithm) – by evaluating their relative performance in terms of the model–data fit and the difference in retrieved parameter values. We examine the performance of each method for two cases: when optimising parameters at each site independently (“single-site” approach) and when simultaneously optimising the model at all sites for a given PFT using a common set of parameters (“multi-site” approach). We find that for the single site case the random search algorithm results in lower values of the cost function (i.e. lower model–data root mean square differences) than the gradient-based method; the difference between the two methods is smaller for the multi-site optimisation due to a smoothing of the cost function shape with a greater number of observations. The spread of the cost function, when performing the same tests with 16 random first-guess parameters, is much larger with the gradient-based method, due to the higher likelihood of being trapped in local minima. When using pseudo-observation tests, the genetic algorithm results in a closer approximation of the true posterior parameter value in the L-BFGS-B algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages and challenges of different DA techniques and provide some advice on using it for the LSM parameter optimisation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy‐Water Asynchrony Principally Determines Water Available for Runoff From Snowmelt in Continental Montane Forests

ABSTRACT Changes in the volume, rate, and timing of the snowmelt water pulse have profound implications for seasonal soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and downstream water availability, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we present an empirical analysis of water available for runoff using five eddy covariance towers located in continental montane forests across a regional gradient of snow depth, precipitation seasonality, and aridity. We specifically investigated how energy‐water asynchrony (i.e., snowmelt timing relative to atmospheric demand), surface water input intensity (rain and snowmelt), and observed winter ET (winter AET) impact multiple water balance metrics that determine water available for runoff (WAfR). Overall, we found that WAfR had the strongest relationship with energy‐water asynchrony (adjusted r 2 = 0.52) and that winter AET was correlated to total water year evapotranspiration but not to other water balance metrics. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that none of the tested mechanisms were strongly related to the Budyko‐type runoff anomaly (highest adjusted r 2 = 0.21). We, therefore, conclude that WAfR from continental montane forests is most sensitive to the degree of energy‐water asynchrony that occurs. The results of this empirical study identify the physical mechanisms driving variability of WAfR in continental montane forests and are thus broadly relevant to the hydrologic management and modelling communities.

Webb, Ryan William↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resource assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Island communities often struggle to establish and maintain traditional electric grids and are therefore heavily reliant on costly imported fossil fuels. In the case of Puerto Rico, these challenges are enhanced by extreme weather and other natural hazards that threaten the local electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) could play an important role in establishing a more resilient electrical grid in the region. Here, in this study, a detailed analysis is conducted to characterize the ocean thermal resource and power potential of OTEC in Puerto Rico based on a 14-year dataset of modeled ocean temperature. The assessment considers seasonal and interannual variability in the region's thermal resource and examines the operational limitations associated with minimal thermal gradients required to run a typical OTEC heat engine. Notably, the local thermal resource is found to be sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns, with La Niña conditions linked to greater OTEC power availability. Seven areas of opportunity are identified based on their resource potential and proximity to existing electrical distribution lines, including two that could benefit the nearby U.S. Virgin Islands. The greatest OTEC power potential is observed to the south of the main island of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean Sea with an estimated capacity of 138 MW for a plant pumping cold water from a depth of 1,000 m, or the equivalent amount of electricity required to power 219,000 households.

OTEC↗