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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
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NASA NTRS2003

Using Satellite-derived Ice Concentration to Represent Antarctic Coastal Polynyas in Ocean Climate Models

The focus of this paper is on the representation of Antarctic coastal polynyas in global ice-ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), in particular their local, regional, and high-frequency behavior. This is verified with the aid of daily ice concentration derived from satellite passive microwave data using the NASATeam 2 (NT2) and the bootstrap (BS) algorithms. Large systematic regional and temporal discrepancies arise, some of which are related to the type of convection parameterization used in the model. An attempt is made to improve the fresh-water flux associated with melting and freezing in Antarctic coastal polynyas by ingesting (assimilating) satellite ice concentration where it comes to determining the thermodynamics of the open-water fraction of a model grid cell. Since the NT2 coastal open-water fraction (polynyas) tends to be less extensive than the simulated one in the decisive season and region, assimilating NT2 coastal ice concentration yields overall reduced net freezing rates, smaller formation rates of Antarctic Bottom Water, and a stronger southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water across 30 S. Enhanced net freezing rates occur regionally when NT2 coastal ice concentration is assimilated, concomitant with a more realistic ice thickness distribution and accumulation of High-Salinity Shelf Water. Assimilating BS rather than NT2 coastal ice concentration, the differences to the non-assimilated simulation are generally smaller and of opposite sign. This suggests that the model reproduces coastal ice concentration in closer agreement with the BS data than with the NT2 data, while more realistic features emerge when NT2 data are assimilated.

Stoessel, Achim↗
NASA NTRS2003

Parameterization of Cloud Droplet Formation in Global Climate Models

An aerosol activation parameterization has been developed based on a generalized representation of aerosol size and composition within the framework of an ascending adiabatic parcel; this allows for parameterizing the activation of chemically complex aerosol with an arbitrary size distribution and mixing state. The new parameterization introduces the concept of"population splitting", in which the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that form droplets are treated as two separate populations; those that have a size close to their critical diameter and those that do not.Explicit consideration of kinetic limitations of droplet growth is introduced. Our treatment of the activation process unravels much of its complexity. As a result of this, a substantial number of conditions of droplet formation can be treated completely free of empirical information or correlations; there are, however, some conditions of droplet activation for which an empirically derived correlation is utilized. Predictions of the parameterization are compared against extensive cloud parcel model simu;lations for a variety of aerosol activation conditions that cover a wide range of chemical variability and CCN concentrations. The parameterization tracks the parcel model simulations closely and robustly. The parameterization presented here is intended to allow for a comprehensive assessment of the aerosol indirect effect in general circulation models.

Nenes, A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two Versions of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

In mid-winter, winds circle the globe at speeds greater than 200 km/hr (approximately 130mph) in the middle atmosphere. This strong jet bounds the region known as the polar vortex. The presence of the Antarctic polar vortex is a key ingredient in the formation of the 'ozone hole', because the air inside the vortex is cold and isolated from lower latitudes, creating ideal conditions for large-scale chemical ozone depletion. Many atmospheric models are not able to reproduce observed winds in the middle atmosphere. Specifically, the polar vortices tend to break down too late and peak wind speeds are higher than observed. Hurwitz et al. find that the delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex is due to weaker-than-observed wave driving from the lower atmosphere during the October-November period. The delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex changes the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere, which biases the amount of chemical ozone depletion that can occur in late winter and spring. Also, the extended lifetime of the polar vortex strengthens the 'overturning' circulation cell in the middle atmosphere, changing the amount of ozone, methane and other chemical species that is transported from low to high latitudes. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the atmospheric temperature structure and resulting wind structure are expected to change. Clearly, if models cannot duplicate the observed late 20th century high-latitude winds, their ability to simulate the polar vortices in future must be poor. Understanding model weaknesses and improving the modeled polar vortices will be necessary for accurate predictions of ozone recovery in the coming century.

Hurwitz, M.M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits of Instrument Simulators in Climate Models

The properties of clouds that may be observed by satellite instruments, such as optical depth and cloud top pressure, are only loosely related to the way clouds are represented in models of the atmosphere. One way to bridge this gap is through "instrument simulators," diagnostic tools that map the model representation to synthetic observations so that differences between simulator output and observations can be interpreted unambiguously as model error. But simulators may themselves be restricted by limited information available from the host model or by internal assumptions. This work examines the extent to which instrument simulators are able to capture essential differences between MODIS and ISCCP, two similar but independent estimates of cloud properties. We focus on the stark differences between MODIS and ISCCP observations of total cloudiness and the distribution of cloud optical thickness can be traced to different approaches to marginal pixels, which MODIS excludes and ISCCP treats as homogeneous. These pixels, which likely contain broken clouds, cover about 15% of the planet and contain almost all of the optically thinnest clouds observed by either instrument. Instrument simulators can not reproduce these differences because the host model does not consider unresolved spatial scales and so can not produce broken pixels. Nonetheless, MODIS and ISCCP observation are consistent for all but the optically-thinnest clouds, and models can be robustly evaluated using instrument simulators by excluding ambiguous observations.

Pincus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of the Mid-Winter Arctic Stratosphere to QBO Width in a Simplified Chemistry-Climate Model

In the stratosphere, equatorial winds continually alternate between easterly (westward) and westerly (eastward). This phenomenon is called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The average QBO cycle (Le. easterly to westerly to easterly) lasts approximately 27 months. Large-scale 'planetary' waves can only travel upward through the atmosphere when equatorial winds are westerly, and below a critical threshold. Thus, the amount of wave energy that reaches the middle atmosphere depends on the wind direction. When equatorial winds are easterly, wave energy is concentrated at higher latitudes, weakening the high-latitude eastward wind feature known as the 'polar jet' during the Northern Hemisphere winter season. Holton and Tan (1980) used atmospheric observations to show the dependence of the strength of the northern polar jet on the phase (easterly vs. westerly) of the QBO. This modeling study finds that the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) varies from one cycle to the next, and that variation in QBO width may exert equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the QBO wind direction. High latitude winds are weaker and ozone values are higher in a wide-QBO model simulation, as compared with a realistic simulation. This result implies that a relatively wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stationary Planetary Waves in Northern Late Winter: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

Mars reveals similar, yet also rather different, atmospheric circulation patterns compared to those on Earth. In both atmospheres, solar differential heating drives global Hadley circulation cells. However during solstice on Mars, its Hadley cells are hemispherically asymmetric: an intense, deep, cross-hemisphere single cell dominates with rising motion in the summer hemisphere and sinking motion in the winter hemisphere. Both planets also exhibit thermally indirect (i.e., eddy-driven) Ferrel circulation cells in middle and high latitudes. In addition, Earth and Mars exhibit distinctive large-scale orography and, in a broadly defined context, continentality. For Mars’ northern midlatitudes, Tharsis in the western hemisphere, and Arabia Terra and Elysium in the eastern hemisphere, are the primary large-scale topographic features. In the southern-midlatitudes, Tharsis and Argyre in the western hemisphere, and Hellas in the eastern hemisphere are the key topographic features which can influence large-scale circulation patterns. Such underlying orographic complexes not only cause significant latitudinal excursions of the seasonal mean westerly circumnavigating polar vortex but also significantly modulate the intensity and preferred geographic regions of traveling baroclinic weather systems.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near‐Surface Temperature Errors in 5 Day Hindcasts near the Southern Great Plains

We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Morcrette, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Flexible Parameterization for Shortwave and Longwave Optical Properties of Ice Crystals and Derived Bulk Optical Properties for Climate Models

We provide a parameterization of the extinction efficiency, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter of single ice crystals with any combination of particle volume, projected area, component aspect ratio and crystal distortion at any wavelength between 0.2 and 100 mm. The paramerization is an extension of the one previously published by van Diedenhoven et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0205.1). In addition, the parameterized optical properties are integrated over size distributions yielding bulk extinction efficiencies, single scattering albedos and asymmetry parameters for large ranges of effective radii, particle component aspect ratios and crystal distortion values. The parameterization of single particle optical properties is evaluated with a reference database. The bulk optical properties are evaluated against the ice model selected for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 products, for which accurate optical properties are available. Mean absolute errors in parameterized extinction efficiency, asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedo are shown to be 0.0272, 0.00890 and 0.00468, respectively for shortwave wavelengths, while they are 0.0641, 0.0368 and 0.0200 in the longwave. Shortwave and longwave asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedos are shown to vary strongly with particle component aspect ratio and distortion, resulting in substantial variation in shortwave fluxes, but relatively small variations in longwave cloud emissivity. The parameterization and bulk optical properties are made publicly available.

Bastiaan Van Diedenhoven↗