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Surface winds from tropical Pacific islands - Climatological statistics

Variability space- and time-scales are presently investigated on the basis of multidecadal time series of surface wind observations from islands in the tropical Pacific. The frequency distribution of variance, derived from daily-averaged data, exhibits considerable geographical variation. Poleward of about 5 deg of latitude, the interannual variability in zonal wind diminishes sharply and the zonal and meridional wind variances become increasingly comparable. The zonal wind energy level in the 3- to 60-day band decreases with distance from the equator.

Harrison, D. E.↗

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

Reliable estimates of the components of the surface radiation budget are important in studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction, land-atmosphere interaction, ocean circulation and in the validation of radiation schemes used in climate models. The methods currently under consideration must necessarily make certain assumptions regarding both the presence of clouds and their vertical extent. Because of the uncertainties in assumed cloudiness, all these methods involve perhaps unacceptable uncertainties. Here, a theoretical framework that avoids the explicit computation of cloud fraction and the location of cloud base in estimating the surface longwave radiation is presented. Estimates of the global surface downward fluxes and the oceanic surface net upward fluxes were made for four months (April, July, October and January) in 1985 to 1986. These estimates are based on a relationship between cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface obtained from a general circulation model. The radiation code is the version used in the UCLA/GLA general circulation model (GCM). The longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as obtained from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements is used to compute the forcing at the surface by means of the GCM-derived relationship. This, along with clear-sky fluxes from the computations, yield maps of the downward longwave fluxes and net upward longwave fluxes at the surface. The calculated results are discussed and analyzed. The results are consistent with current meteorological knowledge and explainable on the basis of previous theoretical and observational works; therefore, it can be concluded that this method is applicable as one of the ways to obtain the surface longwave radiation fields from currently available satellite data.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

Global optical climatology of the free tropospheric aerosol from 1.0-micron satellite occultation measurements

Measurements of the aerosol/molecular extinction ratio at 1-micron wavelength, obtained from the SAGE I, SAGE II, and SAM II solar occultation satellite experiments between 1978 and 1986, have been used to study the global-scale behavior of the upper tropospheric aerosol. The distribution of extinction ratio values shows a pronounced mode between about 0.5 and 5 in all data subsets, regardless of latitude and season. Within a given latitude band and season with mode value is nearly constant over the altitude range from about 5 km above the earth's surface to 3 km below the tropopause. The mode shows a distinct seasonal variation, with maxima in local spring and summer, and is significantly enhanced following vlocanic injection of material into the stratosphere. South of latitude 20-deg N, mode values in the absence of volcanic contamination are normally between 0.5 and 1.0 north of 20-deg N, values up to about 5 are observed, probably associated with aerosol derived from surface dust or anthropogenic sources. A secondary mode, with extinction ratios of 30 or greater and little or no variation of extinction with wavelength, is apparent just below the tropopause. This mode is believed to be associated with thin cloud along the ray path from the sun to the satellite.

Kent, G. S.↗

Ozone climatology at Natal, Brazil, from in situ ozonesonde data

A large ozone-profile data set has been obtained through balloon ozonesonde soundings at Natal, Brazil, during 1978-1988. Maximum ozone concentrations occur during local spring (September-October), and minimum concentrations during late autumn (April-May); the seasonal variation is much larger in the troposphere than in the stratosphere. If there were no seasonal variation in the stratosphere, the seasonal variation observed in the troposphere alone would be sufficient to drive a total ozone column variation of about 5 percent. This is about half the size of the variation observed in the Natal Dobson spectrophotometer data.

Kirchhoff, V. W. J. H.↗

Climatological stratospheric modeling

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Three dimensional Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model was used to investigate the effect of doubled carbon dioxide on the middle atmosphere. Carbon dioxide was doubled in both the troposphere and stratosphere, and the sea surface temperatures were increased in accordance with results from the GISS climate model. Additional experiments were run with different sea surface temperature distributions, and doubling the carbon dioxide only in the troposphere or stratosphere.

Rind, David↗

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface were obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (greater than 80/sq Wm) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux ((less than 40/sq Wm) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover.The technique used relies on General Circulation Model simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture, and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of longwave radiation.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

Simulation of the zonal mean climatology of the middle atmosphere with a three-dimensional spectral model for solstice and equinox conditions

A 3D spectral model was used to simulate the zonal mean state of the middle atmosphere for solstice and equinox conditions. The model incorporates realistic parameterizations of atmospheric infrared cooling and a gravity wave formulation based on a combination of Lindzen's (1981) and Matsuno's (1982) approaches. The temperature distributions for both seasons and the zonal wind distribution for solstice are found to be in satisfactory agreement with the empirical model of Fleming et al. (1988). Net vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum are in good agreement with systematic observations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere.

Akmaev, R. A.↗

Climatology of Station Storm Rainfall in the Continental United States: Parameters of the Bartlett-Lewis and Poisson Rectangular Pulses Models

The parameters of two stochastic models of point rainfall, the Bartlett-Lewis model and the Poisson rectangular pulses model, are estimated for each month of the year from the historical records of hourly precipitation at more than seventy first-order stations in the continental United States. The parameters are presented both in tabular form and as isopleths on maps. The Poisson rectangular pulses parameters are useful in implementing models of the land surface water balance. The Bartlett-Lewis parameters are useful in disaggregating precipitation to a time period shorter than that of existing observations. Information is also included on a floppy disk.

Hawk, Kelly Lynn↗

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

The purpose of this work is to estimate sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal samplings by satellites. In particular, the sampling errors of the proposed low inclination orbit satellite of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (35 deg inclination and 350 km altitude), one of the sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites of NOAA series (98.89 deg inclination and 833 km altitude), and two simultaneous sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites--assumed to carry a perfect passive microwave sensor for direct rainfall measurements--will be estimated. This estimate is done by performing a study of the satellite orbits and the autocovariance function of the area-averaged rain rate time series. A model based on an exponential fit of the autocovariance function is used for actual calculations. Varying visiting intervals and total coverage of averaging area on each visit by the satellites are taken into account in the model. The data are generated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). The model has a diurnal cycle and parameterized convective processes. A special run of the GCM was made at NASA/GSFC in which the rainfall and precipitable water fields were retained globally for every hour of the run for the whole year.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

Shuttle landing facility cloud cover study: Climatological analysis and two tenths cloud cover rule evaluation

The two-tenths cloud cover rule in effect for all End Of Mission (EOM) STS landings at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) states: 'for scattered cloud layers below 10,000 feet, cloud cover must be observed to be less than or equal to 0.2 at the de-orbit burn go/no-go decision time (approximately 90 minutes before landing time)'. This rule was designed to protect against a ceiling (below 10,000 feet) developing unexpectedly within the next 90 minutes (i.e., after the de-orbit burn decision and before landing). The Applied Meteorological Unit (AMU) developed and analyzed a database of cloud cover amounts and weather conditions at the Shuttle Landing Facility for a five-year (1986-1990) period. The data indicate the best time to land the shuttle at KSC is during the summer while the worst time is during the winter. The analysis also shows the highest frequency of landing opportunities occurs for the 0100-0600 UTC and 1300-1600 UTC time periods. The worst time of the day to land a shuttle is near sunrise and during the afternoon. An evaluation of the two-tenths cloud cover rule for most data categorizations has shown that there is a significant difference in the proportions of weather violations one and two hours subsequent to initial conditions of 0.2 and 0.3 cloud cover. However, for May, Oct., 700 mb northerly wind category, 1500 UTC category, and 1600 UTC category there is some evidence that the 0.2 cloud cover rule may be overly conservative. This possibility requires further investigation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed nomograms to help the Spaceflight Meteorological Group (SMG) and the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility (CCFF) forecast cloud cover for EOM and Return to Launch Site (RTLS) at KSC. Future work will include updating the two tenths database, further analysis of the data for several categorizations, and developing a proof of concept artificial neural network to provide forecast guidance of weather constraint violations for shuttle landings.

Atchison, Michael K.↗

An overview of the first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE)

This paper reviews the history and scientific background leading up to FIFE, the experiment design, the scientific teams and equipment involved, and the actual execution of the experiment. The experiment was tasked with exploring techniques for utilizing satellite data to quantify important biophysical states and rates for model input. During the intensive field campaigns the fluxes of moisture, heat, carbon dioxide and radiation were measured with airborne and surface equipment in coordination with measurements of atmospheric and surface parameters and satellite overpasses.

Sellers, P. J.↗

Present-day Antarctic climatology of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1

The ability of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1) with R 15 resolution to simulate the present-day climate of Antarctica was evaluated using the five-year seasonal cycle output produced by the CCM1 and comparing the model results with observed horizontal syntheses and point data. The results showed that the CCM1 with R 15 resolution can simulate to some extent the dynamics of Antarctic climate on the synoptic scale as well as some mesoscale features. The model can also simulate the phase and the amplitude of the annual and semiannual variation of the temperature, sea level pressure, and zonally averaged zonal (E-W) wind. The main shortcomings of the CCM1 model are associated with the model's anomalously large precipitation amounts at high latitudes, due to the tendency of the scheme to suppress negative moisture values.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗

A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes

The variability of intense (or major) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is investigated on both intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Differences are highlighted in characteristics between intense hurricanes and the weaker minor hurricanes and tropical storms. Intense hum canes show a much more peaked annual cycle than do weaker tropical cyclones. Ninety-five percent of all intense hurricane activity occurs during August to October. Of all classes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, the intense hurricanes display the greatest year-to-year variability. The incidence of intense hurricanes also has decreased during the last two decades. After adjusting for this bias, however, a substantial downward trend in intense hurricane activity during recent years is still apparent. Given that intense hurricanes are responsible for more than 70 percent of all destruction caused by tropical cyclones in the United States, an understanding is needed of the physical mechanisms for these observed variations of intense hurricane activity.

Landsea, Christopher W.↗

Global oceanic precipitation from the MSU during 1979-91 and comparisons to other climatologies

The construction and general features of a new monthly oceanic precipitation data set compiled from Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data gathered by TIROS-N satellites are described. Rainfall is estimated from the intensity of warming in MSU channel 1 (50.3 GHz) brightness temperatures above a 15-percent cumulative frequency distribution threshold after correction for airmass temperature. The average channel 1 warming above the threshold is calibrated into precipitation units with five to ten years of monthly accumulations from 132 raingages distributed around the globe. Comparisons between the satellite and raingage measurements of the average annual cycle in monthly precipitation are presented for 75 raingages from different climatic regions.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

Kim, J.-H.↗