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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating simplifications of subsurface process representations for field-scale permafrost hydrology models

Abstract. Permafrost degradation within a warming climate poses a significant environmental threat through both the permafrost carbon feedback and damage to human communities and infrastructure. Understanding this threat relies on better understanding and numerical representation of thermo-hydrological permafrost processes and the subsequent accurate prediction of permafrost dynamics. All models include simplified assumptions, implying a tradeoff between model complexity and prediction accuracy. The main purpose of this work is to investigate this tradeoff when applying the following commonly made assumptions: (1) assuming equal density of ice and liquid water in frozen soil, (2) neglecting the effect of cryosuction in unsaturated freezing soil, and (3) neglecting advective heat transport during soil freezing and thaw. This study designed a set of 62 numerical experiments using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS v1.2) to evaluate the effects of these choices on permafrost hydrological outputs, including both integrated and pointwise quantities. Simulations were conducted under different climate conditions and soil properties from three different sites in both column- and hillslope-scale configurations. Results showed that amongst the three physical assumptions, soil cryosuction is the most crucial yet commonly ignored process. Neglecting cryosuction, on average, can cause 10 %–20 % error in predicting evaporation, 50 %–60 % error in discharge, 10 %–30 % error in thaw depth, and 10 %–30 % error in soil temperature at 1 m beneath the surface. The prediction error for subsurface temperature and water saturation is more obvious at hillslope scales due to the presence of lateral flux. By comparison, using equal ice–liquid density has a minor impact on most hydrological metrics of interest but significantly affects soil water saturation with an averaged 5 %–15 % error. Neglecting advective heat transport presents the least error, 5 % or even much lower, in most metrics of interest for a large-scale Arctic tundra system without apparent influence caused by localized groundwater flow, and it can decrease the simulation time at hillslope scales by 40 %–80 %. By challenging these commonly made assumptions, this work provides permafrost hydrology scientists an important context for understanding the underlying physical processes, including allowing modelers to better choose the appropriate process representation for a given modeling experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulation of Container Breach and Airborne Release of Solids Due to Mechanical Insults

Throughout U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complexes, safety engineers employ the five-factor formula to calculate the source term (ST) that includes parameters of airborne release fraction (ARF), respirable fraction (RF) and damage ratio (DR). Limited experimental data on fragmentation of solids, such as ceramic pellets (i.e., PuO2), and container breach due to mechanical insults (i.e., drop and forklift impact), can be supplemented by modeling and simulation using high fidelity computational tools to estimate these parameters. This paper presents the use of Sandia National Laboratories' SIERRA solid mechanics (SM) finite element code to investigate the behavior of the widely utilized waste container (such as 7A Drum) subject to a range of free fall impact and puncture scenarios. The resulting behavior of the container is assessed, and the estimates are presented for bounding DRs from calculated breach areas for the various accident conditions considered. This paper also describes a novel multiscale constitutive model recently implemented in SIERRA/SM that simulates the fracture of brittle materials such as PuO 2 and determines ARF during the fracture process. Furthermore, comparisons are made between model predictions and simple bench-top experiments.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Design of Guiding Stress Wave Propagation

Impact loads can induce a series of undesirable physical phenomena including vibration, acoustical shock, perforation, fracture and fragmentation, etc. The energy associated with the impact loads can lead to severe structure damage and human injuries. A design approach which effectively reduces these negative impacts through shock/stress wave diversion is highly needed. In this paper, a computational model which predicts stress wave propagation by considering different beam geometries and configurations is developed. Additionally, a novel concept of wave guide design which modifies the stress wave propagation path without disturbance is also presented. Furthermore, this design approach is not only useful for material property characterization particularly at intermediate or high strain rates, but also allows stress wave propagation in a desired direction as the shock/impact energy can be redistributed in controllable paths. The numerical results are experimentally verified through a Drop-Hopkinson bar apparatus at Sandia National Laboratories.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling and Experimental Validation of Improved Performance of Lithium-Ion Batteries Having Thick Electrodes with Laser-Ablated Micro-Structures

For widespread adoption of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) need to achieve energy densities of >275 Wh/kg, cost less than $100/Wh, and charge to more than 80% capacity within 15 minutes. Increasing the battery electrode thicknesses is one way to increase cell energy densities while also saving on cell manufacturing cost by increasing the ratio of electrode active material to inactive material within each cell. However, increased electrode loading is often accompanied by decreased Li+-ion diffusion across the full thick electrodes. This leads to significant cell polarization that prevents full capacity utilization and accelerates cell degradation, especially at fast charging/discharging rates. The introduction of secondary pore networks in thick battery electrodes alleviates some of the trade-offs between energy and power performance. These microstructures provide low tortuosity pathways for facile Li+-ion diffusion deep into the thick electrodes, diminishing detrimental concentration gradients within the cell. Ultrafast-pulsed laser ablation is a promising method to introduce micro pores or channels in thick battery electrodes as it allows for precise control of pattern geometries, results in minimal damage to the electrode and can be introduced into existing roll-to-roll electrode manufacturing lines. Herein, the limitations of thick planer electrodes and the advanced predictive models to identify optimal electrode patterns for improved cycling performance will be presented. The impact of electrode laser patterning to create secondary pore networks also will be discussed. Materials characterization techniques (SEM-EDS, XRD) were used to explore the affect ultrafast laser ablation had on the electrode materials’ morphology and structure. The improvements in the patterned electrodes’ electrochemical cycling performances and degrees of wetting will be compared to a pristine baseline case. Finally, the discrepancies between experimentally obtained data and model predictions will be explained.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Micro-Mechanical Constitutive Model to Predict Hygrothermal Aging of Cross-Linked Polymers

Abstract A multi-physics material model is presented to describe the effects of temperature, oxygen, and humidity on the constitutive response of cross-linked polymers. The effect of hygrothermal damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix can be considered as the result of damage accumulation of two independent aging mechanism namely, i) thermo-oxidative, and ii) hydrolytic aging. In order to capture the mutual effects of thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic aging, an assumption has been made that each of the aging phenomenon can be superposed to each other. In fact, each of them works independently and as a result, they can compete with each other. Utilizing the theory of network decomposition, all phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy function of the polymer matrix is written with respect to four independent mechanisms, i) the shrinking original matrix that has neither been attacked by water nor oxygen, ii) conversion of the first network to two new network due to the reduction and formation of cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to attack of the water molecules to polymer active agents. Moreover, the proposed model is micro-mechanically based and is mainly relevant on thin samples due to our underlying assumption of homogeneous diffusion of oxygen and water throughout the matrix. The model has been validated against extensive data-sets obtained from experiments we specifically designed for concept validation.

Bahrololoumi, Amir↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amorphization and siliconization of silicon carbide as a first wall material

The understanding and prediction of silicon carbide (SiC) material evolution exposed to SOL plasma conditions is of prime interest because SiC represents a promising main chamber wall plasma-facing material for next-step fusion devices (low hydrogenic diffusion, good mechanical and thermal properties under neutron irradiation). Gross and net Si erosion rates from SiC surfaces in contact with a well-diagnosed L-mode plasma in the DIII-D tokamak have been simulated and the surface concentrations of impurities have been tracked as a function of time. Coupled simulation of surface model and impurity transport demonstrates amorphization of crystalline SiC exposed to L-mode plasma due to the accumulation of displacement damages under ion irradiation. This affects the lifetime of SiC plasma facing components. Surface evolution is tightly coupled to impurity transport in the plasma and therefore needs to be integrated with impurity transport simulations to effectively predict Si erosion rates and sub-surface concentrations as a function of time. The simulation workflow couples a semi-analytical surface model to the impurity transport code GITR. The surface model is a homogeneous mixed-material model that tracks physical & chemical sputtering and reflection of impurities. Gross erosion is primarily influenced by the background plasma parameters and redeposition patterns are mainly influenced by the prompt redeposition due to the gyro-orbits of impurity ions. Although crystalline form of SiC is preferable for fusion wall applications because of resistance to neutron irradiation, this work indicates that crystalline SiC will undergo amorphization under D plasma contact with implications of higher sputtering and fuel retention. These results direct us to explore the effects of amorphization on crystalline SiC and further the physics basis of SiC usage as first wall material for fusion environments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial community diversity changes during voltage reversal repair in a 12-unit microbial fuel cell

Microbial fuel cell stacks (MFC-Stack) are often confronted with voltage reversals, likely due to an interplay between microbial community dynamics and insufficient electric circuit balancing. Herein, we provide new insight into voltage reversals by examining the microbiomes of twelve MFC units of a 12-liter Pilot-MFC-Stack during repair. Different biofilm repair methods (self-healing, electrostimulation, and re-acclimatization upon cross-inoculation) were used to evaluate the microbial community response. In addition, MFC-Stack simulation was performed based on Kirchhoff’s Second Law to predict values for source potentials and post-evaluate internal resistances. Analysis of the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing data suggests that the biofilm repair methods could slowly heal damaged biofilms. Notably, severely voltage reversed MFC units had low electrogen relative abundances (18%) and positive anode potentials, while strong bioanodes and contained more than 50% electrogens and had negative anode potentials. Between-community analyses (beta diversity ordination and multinomial regression) of the voltage reversed MFC units revealed differences among biofilms in contrast to healthy/strong MFC units. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) confirmed that reversed biofilms were, indeed, significantly (p < 0.05) different from stronger ones. Overall, these analyses demonstrated the utility of combining electrotechnical and microbial community analyses, especially beta diversity ordination and multinomial regression, to understand problematic MFC units and the potential success of a biofilm repair method. Finally, thicker biofilms were usually healthier and stronger, although thickness was no guarantee for proper structure and power function as all factors were interdependent. There was an evolutionary trend that strong anodes became stronger/healthier and others weaker. This spontaneous trend has to be considered to avoid irreversible voltage reversals and to repair electrogenic biofilms in an MFC-Stack.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical Modeling and Testing of Pouch Cells under Various Loading Conditions

Understanding the mechanical behaviors of batteries is critical to improve battery safety since mechanical failure may directly lead to short-circuits. Nevertheless, mechanical modeling of batteries is challenging since a cell usually contains multiple thin layers with drastically different material properties, and they exhibit different responses under different loading conditions. In this work, we developed a mechanical model for a large-format pouch cell, where the cell is represented by thick shell elements that are not only computationally efficient but also account for different thickness and material properties of individual components. Moreover, the mechanical properties of active materials in electrodes are described by a continuous surface cap model that can capture both compaction and shear deformation modes and can include strain rate effect and damage. Furthermore, to evaluate the model capabilities, we conducted abuse tests under various loading conditions (quasi-static compression, shear and impact). It is shown that the model prediction of load-displacement relationship and failure condition agree with experimental results, which demonstrates that the developed model can capture the mechanical behaviors of a cell in different abuse events. Details of element formulation, material parameters evaluation and test setup are presented. Capabilities, limitations and future directions of model development are also discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of as-received defects on ceramic matrix composites properties using high-fidelity microstructures with periodic boundary conditions

The presence of microstructural defects in as-received specimens of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) significantly influences their constitutive response and damage, highlighting the importance of characterization and quantification of these defects for accurate assessment of damage and failure in the service environment. In a recent effort, the authors developed an algorithm to generate stochastic representative volume elements (SRVEs) of Carbon fiber Silicon-Carbide-Nitride matrix (C/SiNC) CMCs based on extensive multiscale material and defect characterization data. This paper implements this algorithm within a commercial finite element solver with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) for high-fidelity micromechanics analysis and investigation of macroscopic material behavior of C/SiNC composites. Different loading directions are used to predict the global mechanical properties, and the results are in excellent agreement with theoretical (rule of mixture) predictions. Subsequently, the effects of as-received defects on the global and local responses are investigated. The results show that intratow porosity has pronounced degradation effects on the global elastic properties and results in complex stress localization patterns, which can be attributed to potential damage initiation sites.

Khafagy, Khaled H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correlating Time-Resolved Pressure Measurements With Rim Sealing Effectiveness for Real-Time Turbine Health Monitoring

Purge flow is bled from the upstream compressor and supplied to the under-platform region to prevent hot main gas path ingress that damages vulnerable under-platform hardware components. A majority of turbine rim seal research has sought to identify methods of improving sealing technologies and understanding the physical mechanisms that drive ingress. While these studies directly support the design and analysis of advanced rim seal geometries and purge flow systems, the studies are limited in their applicability to real-time monitoring required for condition-based operation and maintenance. As operational hours increase for in-service engines, this lack of rim seal performance feedback results in progressive degradation of sealing effectiveness, thereby leading to reduced hardware life. To address this need for rim seal performance monitoring, the present study utilizes measurements from a one-stage turbine research facility operating with true-scale engine hardware at engine-relevant conditions. Time-resolved pressure measurements collected from the rim seal region are regressed with sealing effectiveness through the use of common machine learning techniques to provide real-time feedback of sealing effectiveness. Two modelling approaches are presented that use a single sensor to predict sealing effectiveness accurately over a range of two turbine operating conditions. Results show that an initial purely data-driven model can be further improved using domain knowledge of relevant turbine operations, which yields sealing effectiveness predictions within three percent of measured values.

Compressors↗
DOE OSTI2020

Jitter-induced Max-of-N fluence distribution at the National Ignition Facility

Max-of-N fluence is the maximum peak fluence at a given location over N number of shots and is important for calculating fluence dependence for intrinsic laser-induced optic damage. Previously, we observed the Max-of-N effect on the National Ignition Facility and developed an ad-hoc model to calculate its effect. In this work, we attempt to understand the fundamental mechanism that causes this Max-of-N effect. We conclude that the primary fundamental mechanism responsible for this effect is dominated by the combination of fluence variations and pointing jitter of the laser. This discovery both strengthens our model for predicting optics longevity and gives us insight into how to mitigate this effect.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiphysics simulation of recent experiments on alkali‐silica reaction expansion in reinforced concrete members

Alkali‐silica reaction (ASR) is an important degradation process that causes volumetric expansion and damage in concrete, and is affected significantly by the local temperature, moisture and stress conditions that often vary across the regions of a structure. Numerical simulation is essential to predict the progression and effects of ASR on the performance of structures. Because of the interactions between thermal and moisture transport and mechanical deformation, it is important for numerical models to represent all these physical phenomena and the coupling between them. Simulations of ASR in reinforced concrete (RC) structures are further complicated by the need to capture interactions between concrete and embedded reinforcing bars. Here, this paper describes the implementation of a scalable, coupled‐physics ASR model for simulating RC structures and assesses the ability of that model to predict ASR‐induced expansion in recent laboratory tests on RC block and beam specimens. These laboratory tests and the simulation approach were selected because of their applicability to RC structural‐scale simulations. This validation study helps builds confidence the ability of this approach to model ASR expansion in large, complex RC structures, which is a current high‐priority need.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Fracture Mechanics-Informed Multiscale Thermomechanical Damage Model for Ceramic Matrix Composites

This paper extends recent work done by the authors in modeling length scale-dependent damage behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) to include effects of local anisotropy introduced by matrix cracking. This model captures scale-dependent damage initiation and propagation behavior of the brittle matrix by employing internal state variable (ISV) theory within a multiscale modeling framework to obtain damaged matrix stress/strain constitutive relationships at each length scale. The damage ISV captures the effects of matrix cracking and growth by using fracture mechanics and the self-consistent scheme to determine the reduced stiffness of the cracked matrix. Matrix cracks, which activate when stress intensity factors near manufacturing induced cavities exceed the fracture toughness of the material, are assumed to be transversely isotropic in the plane of the crack, and matrix anisotropy occurs when the damaged stiffness tensor is rotated from the crack plane to the global axes. The crack progression and temporal evolution of the damage ISV are governed by fracture mechanics and crack growth kinetics. The model effectively captures first matrix cracking, which is the first significant deviation from linear elasticity. The nonlinear predictive capabilities of the material model are demonstrated for monolithic silicon carbide (SiC) and a 2D woven five-harness satin (5HS) carbon fiber SiC matrix (C/SiC) CMC.

Skinner, Travis↗