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DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vibroacoustic test plan evaluation: Parameter variation study

Statistical decision models are shown to provide a viable method of evaluating the cost effectiveness of alternate vibroacoustic test plans and the associated test levels. The methodology developed provides a major step toward the development of a realistic tool to quantitatively tailor test programs to specific payloads. Testing is considered at the no test, component, subassembly, or system level of assembly. Component redundancy and partial loss of flight data are considered. Most and probabilistic costs are considered, and incipient failures resulting from ground tests are treated. Optimums defining both component and assembly test levels are indicated for the modified test plans considered. modeling simplifications must be considered in interpreting the results relative to a particular payload. New parameters introduced were a no test option, flight by flight failure probabilities, and a cost to design components for higher vibration requirements. Parameters varied were the shuttle payload bay internal acoustic environment, the STS launch cost, the component retest/repair cost, and the amount of redundancy in the housekeeping section of the payload reliability model.

Stahle, C. V.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Speckle noise reduction of 1-look SAR imagery

Speckle noise is inherent to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. Since the degradation of the image due to this noise results in uncertainties in the interpretation of the scene and in a loss of apparent resolution, it is desirable to filter the image to reduce this noise. In this paper, an adaptive algorithm based on the calculation of the local statistics around a pixel is applied to 1-look SAR imagery. The filter adapts to the nonstationarity of the image statistics since the size of the blocks is very small compared to that of the image. The performance of the filter is measured in terms of the equivalent number of looks (ENL) of the filtered image and the resulting resolution degradation. The results are compared to those obtained from different techniques applied to similar data. The local adaptive filter (LAF) significantly increases the ENL of the final image. The associated loss of resolution is also lower than that for other commonly used speckle reduction techniques.

Nathan, Krishna S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Threshold effects on V/V(max) for gamma-ray bursts

The interpretation of the observed gamma-ray burst V/V(max) statistic in terms of spatial distributions is model-dependent. Detection of gamma-ray bursts requires the counting rate in one or more detectors to exceed a threshold C(lim) determined from a time-dependent background rate B(t). The sampling depth of the burst detector is thus time-dependent, and, if burst sources are nonuniform in space, the observed V/V(max) distribution will be affected by B(t). We demonstrate this effect with a simple geometric distribution of standard candles and argue that V/V(max) statistic without information on threshold variations is insufficient for rigorous data analysis. Peak count rates and threshold values must be given separately for all events in order to facilitate a meaningful comparison of observations with theoretical distribution models.

Hartmann, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Multiwavelength and Statistical Research in Space Astrophysics

The accomplishments in the following three research areas are summarized: multiwavelength study of active galactic nuclei; magnetic activity of young stellar objects; and statistical methodology for astronomical data analysis. The research is largely based on observations of the ROSAT and ASCA X-ray observatories, complemented by ground-based optical and radio studies. Major findings include: discovery of inverse Compton X-ray emission from radio galaxy lobes; creation of the largest and least biased available sample of BL Lac objects; characterization of X-ray and nonthermal radio emission from T Tauri stars; obtaining an improved census of young stars in a star forming region and modeling the star formation history and kinematics; discovery of X-ray emission from protostars; development of linear regression methods and codes for interpreting astronomical data; and organization of the first cross-disciplinary conferences for astronomers and statisticians.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Variability in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone as Observed by SHADOZ

The SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) ozone sounding network was initiated in 1998 to improve the coverage of tropical in-situ ozone measurements for satellite validation, algorithm development and related process studies. Over 2000 soundings have been archived at the central website, , for 12 stations: Ascension Island; Nairobi and Malindi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil; Paramaribo, Surinam. Some results to date indicate reliability of the measurement and highly variable interactions between ozone and tropical meteorology. For example: 1. By using ECC sondes with similar procedures, 5-10% accuracy and precision (1-sigma) of the sonde total ozone measurement was achieved [Thompson et al., 2003al; 2. Week-to-week variability in tropospheric ozone is so great that statistics are frequently not Gaussian and most stations vary up to a factor of 3 in column amount over the course of a year [Thompson et al., 2002b]. 3. Longitudinal variability in tropospheric ozone profiles is a consistent feature, with a 10- 15 DU column-integrated difference between Atlantic and Pacific sites; this is the cause of the zonal wave-one feature in total ozone [Shiotani, 1992]. The ozone record from Paramaribo, Surinam (6N, 55W) is a marked contrast to southern tropical ozone because Surinam is often north of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Interpretations of SHADOZ time-series and approaches to classification suggested by SHADOZ data over Africa and the Indian Ocean will be described.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Interpreting forest biome productivity and cover utilizing nested scales of image resolution and biogeographical analysis

The objective was to relate spectral imagery of varying resolution with ground-based data on forest productivity and cover, and to create models to predict regional estimates of forest productivity and cover with a quantifiable degree of accuracy. A three stage approach was outlined. In the first stage, a model was developed relating forest cover or productivity to TM surface reflectance values (TM/FOREST models). The TM/FOREST models were more accurate when biogeographic information regarding the landscape was either used to stratigy the landscape into more homogeneous units or incorporated directly into the TM/FOREST model. In the second stage, AVHRR/FOREST models that predicted forest cover and productivity on the basis of AVHRR band values were developed. The AVHRR/FOREST models had statistical properties similar to or better than those of the TM/FOREST models. In the third stage, the regional predictions were compared with the independent U.S. Forest Service (USFS) data. To do this regional forest cover and forest productivity maps were created using AVHRR scenes and the AVHRR/FOREST models. From the maps the county values of forest productivity and cover were calculated. It is apparent that the landscape has a strong influence on the success of the approach. An approach of using nested scales of imagery in conjunction with ground-based data can be successful in generating regional estimates of variables that are functionally related to some variable a sensor can detect.

Iverson, Louis R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Application of multivariate statistics to vestibular testing: discriminating between Meniere's disease and migraine associated dizziness

Meniere's disease (MD) and migraine associated dizziness (MAD) are two disorders that can have similar symptomatologies, but differ vastly in treatment. Vestibular testing is sometimes used to help differentiate between these disorders, but the inefficiency of a human interpreter analyzing a multitude of variables independently decreases its utility. Our hypothesis was that we could objectively discriminate between patients with MD and those with MAD using select variables from the vestibular test battery. Sinusoidal harmonic acceleration test variables were reduced to three vestibulo-ocular reflex physiologic parameters: gain, time constant, and asymmetry. A combination of these parameters plus a measurement of reduced vestibular response from caloric testing allowed us to achieve a joint classification rate of 91%, independent quadratic classification algorithm. Data from posturography were not useful for this type of differentiation. Overall, our classification function can be used as an unbiased assistant to discriminate between MD and MAD and gave us insight into the pathophysiologic differences between the two disorders.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

DOE OSTI2024

Source Levels of In‐Cloud Air in Shallow Cumulus: Consistency Between Paluch Diagram and Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Abstract The Paluch diagram is a widely used tool for interpreting aircraft measurements of shallow cumulus clouds. A prior study conducted by Heus et al. (2008,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2572.1) concluded that the source levels of in‐cloud air inferred from the Paluch diagram exhibit biases, sometimes of several hundred meters, in comparison to those derived from Lagrangian particle tracking. In this short study we revisit this comparison. The results indicate that the upper source levels of in‐cloud air determined from the Lagrangian Particle Tracking and the Paluch diagram are consistent, and the choice of statistical methods is crucial. The significance of this research lies in confirming the reliability of the Paluch analysis, enabling its confident application to aircraft data.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2012

Scaling of Lift Degradation Due to Anti-Icing Fluids Based Upon the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flow-off characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 deg. angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. This paper describes how the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24% on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3% on the PIWT model at 8 deg. angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the anti-icing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2%. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3% to 9.2%, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination.

Broeren, Andy↗

NASA NTRS1975

Statistical properties of the interplanetary microscale fluctuations

Results are reported for a statistical study of short-period fluctuations in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field. The data base used consists of measurements of the interplanetary plasma and magnetic field by Pioneer 6 with a time resolution of 72 sec and by Mariner 5 with a resolution of 5 min. The analysis is conducted to characterize the parent population from which all individual microscale events on these time scales are drawn. The microscale changes are grouped according to their energy densities relative to the energy density of the background magnetic field, and it is found that each grouping exhibits certain statistical properties within the limits of observational uncertainty. It is noted that these statistical properties are purely observational and independent of any physical model which may be used to interpret them. The results are discussed in the context of MHD discontinuity theory for a thermally anisotropic plasma.

Belcher, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Scaling of Lift Degradation Due to Anti-Icing Fluids Based Upon the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flowoff characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. This paper describes how the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24 percent on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3 percent on the PIWT model at 8 angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the anti-icing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2 percent. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3 to 9.2 percent, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination.

Broeren, Andy P.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Estimate of winter wheat yield from ERTS-1

A model for estimating wheat yield per acre has been applied to acreage estimates derived from ERTS-1 imagery to project the 1973 wheat yields for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The results (41.04 million bushels) are within 3 per cent of the preharvest estimates for the same area prepared by the USDA Statistical Reporting Service (39.91 million bushels). The projection from ERTS data is based on a visual enumeration of all detectable wheat fields in the study area and was completed while the harvest was in progress. Visual identification of winter wheat is readily achieved by using a temporal sequence of images (band 5 for Sept.-Oct.; band 5 for Dec.-Jan.; and band 5 and 7 for March-April). Identification can be improved by stratifying the project area into subregions having more or less homogeneous agricultural practices and crop mixes. By doing this, small changes in the spectral appearance of wheat related to soil type, irrigation, etc. can be accounted for. The interpretation rules developed by visual analysis can be automated for rapid computer surveys.

Morain, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Particle Image Velocimetry Measurements of a Two/Three-dimensional Separating/Reattaching Boundary Layer Downstream of an Axisymmetric Backward-facing Step

Planar Particle Image Velocimetry measurements were obtained in the separating/reattaching flow region downstream of an axisymmetric backward-facing step. Data were acquired for a two-dimensional (2D) separating boundary layer at five different Reynolds numbers based on step height (Re(sub h)), spanning 5900-33000, and for a three-dimensional (3D) separating boundary layer at Re(sub h) = 5980 and 8081. Reynolds number effects were investigated in the 2D cases using mean-velocity field, streamwise and wall-normal turbulent velocity, and Reynolds stress statistics. Results show that both the reattachment length (x(sub r)) and the secondary separation point are Reynolds number dependent. The reattachment length increased with rising Re(sub h) while the secondary recirculation region decreased in size. These and other Re(sub h) effects were interpreted in terms of changes in the separating boundary layer thickness and wall-shear stress. On the other hand, in the 3D case, it was found that the imposed cross-flow component was relatively weak in comparison to the streamwise component. As a result, the primary influences of three dimensionality only affected the near-separation region rather than the entire separation bubble.

Hudy, Laura M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Seasonal Glacier and Snow Loading in Svalbard Recovered from Geodetic Observations

We processed time series from seven Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and one Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) station in Svalbard. The goal was to capture the seasonal vertical displacements caused by elastic response of variable mass load due to ice and snow accumulation. We found that estimates of the annual signal in different GNSS solutions disagree by more than 3 mm which makes geophysical interpretation of raw GNSS time series problematic. To overcome this problem, we have used an enhanced Common Mode (CM) filtering technique. The time series are differentiated by the time series from remote station BJOS with known mass loading signals removed a priori. Using this technique, we have achieved a substantial reduction of the differences between the GNSS solutions. We have computed mass loading time series from a regional Climatic Mass Balance (CMB) and snow model that provides the amount of water equivalent at a 1 km resolution with a time step of 7 days. We found that the entire vertical loading signal is present in data of two totally independent techniques at a statistically significant level of 95%. This allowed us to conclude that the remaining errors in vertical signal derived from the CMB model are less than 0.2 mm at that significance level. Refining the land water storage loading model with a CMB model resulted in a reduction of the annual amplitude from 2:1 mm to 1:1 mm in the CM filtered time series, while it had only a marginal impact on raw time series. This provides a strong evidence that CM filtering is essential for revealing local periodic signals when a millimetre level of accuracy is required.

H P Kierulf↗

DOE OSTI2026

Combination of searches for heavy vector boson resonances in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A combined statistical analysis of searches for heavy vector boson resonances decaying into pairs of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as into quark pairs $\left(\mathrm{q}\overline{\mathrm{q}},\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}},\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{t}},\mathrm{t}\overline{\mathrm{b}}\right)$ or lepton pairs ℓ + ℓ – , ℓ$\bar{v}$, with ℓ = e, μ, τ, is presented. The results are based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , collected by the CMS experiment from 2016 to 2018. No significant deviation from the expectations of the standard model is observed. The results are interpreted in the simplified heavy vector triplet (HVT) framework, setting 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross sections and on the coupling strengths of the HVT bosons to standard model particles. The results exclude HVT resonances with masses below 5.5 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.8 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 2.0 TeV in the case of production via vector boson fusion. The combination provides the most stringent constraints to date on new phenomena predicted by the HVT model.

beyond Standard Model↗

NASA NTRS2010

Properties of Martian Hematite at Meridiani Planum by Simultaneous Fitting of Mars Mossbauer Spectra

Mossbauer spectrometers [1] on the two Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs) have been making measurements of surface rocks and soils since January 2004, recording spectra in 10-K-wide temperature bins ranging from 180 K to 290 K. Initial analyses focused on modeling individual spectra directly as acquired or, to increase statistical quality, as sums of single-rock or soil spectra over temperature or as sums over similar rock or soil type [2, 3]. Recently, we have begun to apply simultaneous fitting procedures [4] to Mars Mossbauer data [5-7]. During simultaneous fitting (simfitting), many spectra are modeled similarly and fit together to a single convergence criterion. A satisfactory simfit with parameter values consistent among all spectra is more likely than many single-spectrum fits of the same data because fitting parameters are shared among multiple spectra in the simfit. Consequently, the number of variable parameters, as well as the correlations among them, is greatly reduced. Here we focus on applications of simfitting to interpret the hematite signature in Moessbauer spectra acquired at Meridiani Planum, results of which were reported in [7]. The Spectra. We simfit two sets of spectra with large hematite content [7]: 1) 60 rock outcrop spectra from Eagle Crater; and 2) 46 spectra of spherule-rich lag deposits (Table 1). Spectra of 10 different targets acquired at several distinct temperatures are included in each simfit set. In the table, each Sol (martian day) represents a different target, NS is the number of spectra for a given sol, and NT is the number of spectra for a given temperature. The spectra are indexed to facilitate definition of parameter relations and constraints. An example spectrum is shown in Figure 1, together with a typical fitting model. Results. We have shown that simultaneous fitting is effective in analyzing a large set of related MER Mossbauer spectra. By using appropriate constraints, we derive target-specific quantities and the temperature dependence of certain parameters. By examining different fitting models, we demonstrate an improved fit for martian hematite modeled with two sextets rather than as a single sextet, and show that outcrop and spherule hematite are distinct. For outcrop, the weaker sextet indicates a Morin transition typical of well-crystallized and chemically pure hematite, while most of the outcrop hematite remains in a weakly ferromagnetic state at all temperatures. For spherule spectra, both sextets are consistent with weakly ferromagnetic hematite with no Morin transition. For both hematites, there is evidence for a range of particle sizes.

Agresti, D. G.↗