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Hybrid Approaches to Systems Health Management and Prognostics

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Systems Health Management↗

Mechanism of unassisted ion transport across membrane bilayers

To establish how charged species move from water to the nonpolar membrane interior and to determine the energetic and structural effects accompanying this process, we performed molecular dynamics simulations of the transport of Na+ and Cl- across a lipid bilayer located between two water lamellae. The total length of molecular dynamics trajectories generated for each ion was 10 ns. Our simulations demonstrate that permeation of ions into the membrane is accompanied by the formation of deep, asymmetric thinning defects in the bilayer, whereby polar lipid head groups and water penetrate the nonpolar membrane interior. Once the ion crosses the midplane of the bilayer the deformation "switches sides"; the initial defect slowly relaxes, and a defect forms in the outgoing side of the bilayer. As a result, the ion remains well solvated during the process; the total number of oxygen atoms from water and lipid head groups in the first solvation shell remains constant. A similar membrane deformation is formed when the ion is instantaneously inserted into the interior of the bilayer. The formation of defects considerably lowers the free energy barrier to transfer of the ion across the bilayer and, consequently, increases the permeabilities of the membrane to ions, compared to the rigid, planar structure, by approximately 14 orders of magnitude. Our results have implications for drug delivery using liposomes and peptide insertion into membranes.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Prognostics↗

Exploration Medical Capability System Engineering Overview

Deep Space Gateway and Transport missions will change the way NASA currently practices medicine. The missions will require more autonomous capability compared to current low Earth orbit operations. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The ExMC Systems Engineering team's mission is to "Define, develop, validate, and manage the technical system design needed to implement exploration medical capabilities for Mars and test the design in a progression of proving grounds." The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is using Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) to accomplish its integrative goals. The MBSE approach to medical system design offers a paradigm shift toward greater integration between vehicle and the medical system, and directly supports the transition of Earth-reliant ISS operations to the Earth-independent operations envisioned for Mars. This talk will discuss how ExMC is using MBSE to define operational needs, decompose requirements and architecture, and identify medical capabilities needed to support human exploration. How MBSE is being used to integrate across disciplines and NASA Centers will also be described. The medical system being discussed in this talk is one system within larger habitat systems. Data generated within the medical system will be inputs to other systems and vice versa. This talk will also describe the next steps in model development that include: modeling the different systems that comprise the larger system and interact with the medical system, understanding how the various systems work together, and developing tools to support trade studies.

Mindock, J.↗

Exploration Medical Cap Ability System Engineering Overview

Deep Space Gateway and Transport missions will change the way NASA currently practices medicine. The missions will require more autonomous capability compared to current low Earth orbit operations. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The ExMC Systems Engineering team's mission is to "Define, develop, validate, and manage the technical system design needed to implement exploration medical capabilities for Mars and test the design in a progression of proving grounds." The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is using Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) to accomplish its integrative goals. The MBSE approach to medical system design offers a paradigm shift toward greater integration between vehicle and the medical system, and directly supports the transition of Earth-reliant ISS operations to the Earth-independent operations envisioned for Mars. This talk will discuss how ExMC is using MBSE to define operational needs, decompose requirements and architecture, and identify medical capabilities needed to support human exploration. How MBSE is being used to integrate across disciplines and NASA Centers will also be described. The medical system being discussed in this talk is one system within larger habitat systems. Data generated within the medical system will be inputs to other systems and vice versa. This talk will also describe the next steps in model development that include: modeling the different systems that comprise the larger system and interact with the medical system, understanding how the various systems work together, and developing tools to support trade studies.

McGuire, K.↗

NASA Integrated Network Monitor and Control Software Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Communications and Navigation office (SCaN) has commissioned a series of trade studies to define a new architecture intended to integrate the three existing networks that it operates, the Deep Space Network (DSN), Space Network (SN), and Near Earth Network (NEN), into one integrated network that offers users a set of common, standardized, services and interfaces. The integrated monitor and control architecture utilizes common software and common operator interfaces that can be deployed at all three network elements. This software uses state-of-the-art concepts such as a pool of re-programmable equipment that acts like a configurable software radio, distributed hierarchical control, and centralized management of the whole SCaN integrated network. For this trade space study a model-based approach using SysML was adopted to describe and analyze several possible options for the integrated network monitor and control architecture. This model was used to refine the design and to drive the costing of the four different software options. This trade study modeled the three existing self standing network elements at point of departure, and then described how to integrate them using variations of new and existing monitor and control system components for the different proposed deployments under consideration. This paper will describe the trade space explored, the selected system architecture, the modeling and trade study methods, and some observations on useful approaches to implementing such model based trade space representation and analysis.

Next Generation Uplink↗

Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

There are many challenges involved in deep-space exploration, but several of these can be mitigated, or even solved, by the development of a coating that can reject most of the Sun's energy and yet still provide some far-infrared heat emission. Such a coating would allow non-heat-generating objects in space to reach cryogenic temperatures without using an active cooling system. This would be a benefit to deep-space sensors that require low temperatures, such as the James Webb Telescope focal plane array. It would also allow the use of superconductors in deep space, which could lead to magnetic energy storage rings, lossless power delivery, or perhaps a large-volume magnetic shield against galactic cosmic radiation. But perhaps the most significant enablement achieved from such a coating would be the long-term storage in deep space of cryogenic liquids, such as liquid oxygen (LOX).In this report, we review the state of the art in low-temperature coatings and calculate the lowest temperatures each of these can achieve, demonstrating that cryogenic temperatures cannot be reached in deep space in this fashion. We then propose a new coating that does allow coated objects in deep space to achieve the very low temperatures required to store liquid oxygen or nitrogen. These new coatings consist of a moderately thick scattering layer (typically 5 mm) composed of a material transparent to most of the solar spectrum. This layer acts as a scatterer to the Sun's light, performing the same process as titanium dioxide in white paint in the visible. Under that layer, we place a metallic reflector, e.g. silver, to reflect long-wave radiation that is not well scattered. The result is a coating we call "Solar White," in that it scatters most of the solar spectrum just as white paint does for the visible. Our modeling of these coatings has shown that temperatures as low as 50 K can be reached for a coated object fully exposed to sunlight at 1 AU from the Sun and far from the Earth.In the second half of the report we explore a mission application of this coating in order to show that it allows LOX to be carried on a mission to Mars. Heat can reach a LOX tank in five ways: direct radiation from the Sun, scattered or reflected radiation from the Sun off of spacecraft components, radiation from nearby planets or the Moon, radiation from the infrared emission of other parts of the spacecraft, and conduction along support struts and flow lines. We discuss these and sum their total contribution when using a Solar White coating to demonstrate an architecture that allows the transportation of LOX to Mars. After this, other applications of Solar White are listed.

Cryogenic Materials↗

Monitoring Human Performance on Future Deep Space Missions Abstract

NASA and the commercial spacecraft community are working diligently to put the first woman on the moon in the 2024 timeframe. At the same time, NASA researchers are thinking about how to solve the even larger challenges that future deep space missions will bring. Space travel itself is difficult, but astronauts on deep space missions will face obstacles and unknowns never before experienced. In addition to the altered gravity and hostile/closed environment of a spacecraft, deep space crews will face increased radiation, isolation, and distance from Earth. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA, or “spacewalk”) operations, crew will experience increased physical and cognitive workload due to extended types, frequencies and durations of tasks performed on exploration missions in partial gravity environments. All of these stressors will impact crew physical and mental health and performance in difficult-to-anticipate ways. Crew autonomy may be one of the biggest challenges faced. Communication delays and blackouts will occur, and in those situations, the crew may not have access to the Mission Control Center (MCC). They may be forced to be solely dependent on each other and the available information onboard to stay alive, healthy, and achieve the mission. The only conceivable way to meet the challenges of Earth independence is to enable the crew to monitor their own health and performance -- preferably unobtrusively as they perform their duties. Technologies and techniques must be developed to aid the crew in these assessments. A deep space mission is expected to have relatively short periods of high cognitive demand, stress, and fatigue, alongside potentially long periods of cognitive underload during the transit, where boredom, loneliness, and depression can set in. Both ends of this spectrum are dangerous. Crew must be made aware when their task performance drops significantly, when their cognitive workload is too high, when they have lost situation awareness, or when they are too stressed or too fatigued to perform well. They must be able to identify these risks, and then mitigate them with countermeasures available onboard. A number of self-monitoring technologies are presently being explored by NASA to advance crew state determination capabilities. These range from real-time, physiological workload and situation awareness assessments, to crew health measurements determining physical and mental fitness for duty, to task performance metrics such as suit resource expenditures. For EVA tasks during surface exploration missions, biomedical information such as metabolic rate may be provided to crewmembers for situational awareness related to task performance efficiency. In addition, translation distances, hydration, nutrition, inspired CO2 exposure and other consumables usage rates may be useful input metrics for modeling individualized performance during tasks to inform crew or provide estimates of work efficiency. Oculomotor metrics such as gaze dwell time, pupilometry, and eye tracking collected in advanced helmet mounted displays could potentially be used to characterize crew situation awareness. This paper highlights some of these projects, and provides broader discussion about the need for advanced monitoring and smart technologies, as NASA takes the leap into the next generation of space exploration.

Kritina Holden↗

A Semi-Empirical Scheme for Bathymetric Mapping in Shallow Water by ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2: A Case Study in the South China Sea

To derive shallow water bathymetry for coastal areas, a common approach is to deploy a scanning airborne bathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system or a shipborne echosounder for ground surveys. However, recent advancements in satellite remote sensing, including the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) offer new tools for generating satellite derived bathymetry (SDB). The key payload onboard ICESat-2 is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micro-pulse, photon-counting LiDAR system, simultaneously emitting six separate 532 nm beams at 10 kHz pulse rate. However, despite its high resolution, the major limitation for bathymetry is that ICESat-2 only provides along-track height profiles, leaving observation gaps between the parallel ground tracks. Merging ICESat-2 observations with optical multispectral imagery, as demonstrated herein, provides an effective solution for deriving a full scene of water depth in light of the spectral attenuation behavior. This study aims to combine ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data to derive shallow water bathymetry (depth <20 m) at six islands and reefs in the South China Sea. ICESat-2 ATL03 point clouds of georeferenced photons are first filtered to determine the seafloor elevation along the ground track. Results indicate a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.26–0.61 m as compared with independent observations from an airborne LiDAR campaign. Next, three semi-empirical functions, namely the Modified Linear/Polynomial/Exponential Ratio Models with its kernel formed by the log ratio between Sentinel-2′s green and blue bands, are used to fit the spectral data with ICESat-2 height profiles. After water depth mapping using the trained model, independent ICESat-2 point clouds are used to validate the Sentinel-2 derived bathymetry. The RMSE values of the three models using the weighted average of multiple images for these six islands are within 0.50–0.90 m in 0–15 m deep. We also demonstrate that a synthesis of satellite laser altimetry and optical remote sensing can produce SDB results that potentially meet the requirement of category C in Zones of Confidence (ZOC) of the Electronic Navigational Chart (ENC) in 0–8 m deep. It is foreseen that ICESat-2 will be a helpful tool for mapping coastal and shallow waters around the world especially where bathymetric data are unavailable.

Coastal Bathymetry↗

Demonstration of Capability to Simulate Particle Irregular Shape and Poly-Disperse Mixtures Within Lunar Lander Plume-Surface Interaction

Plume-Surface Interaction (PSI) between lander engine plumes and regolith soil creates hazards in obscuration and contamination by particle clouds, high-energy ejecta streams, and landing area cratering damage. The MSFC Fluid Dynamics Branch is developing simulation tools to offer a predictive PSI capability to NASA customers such as the Human Lander System (HLS) and Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS). The Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) is the main application tool for coupled gas-particle two-phase flow simulations to predict the range of PSI effects from onset of surface erosion to deep crater formation. GGFS features an Eulerian-Eulerian modeling approach, treating both gas and granular material as interacting continuum phases. Modeling the lunar regolith granular material fluidic characteristics poses special challenges due to complex particle shapes and mixture composition. The lunar regolith is poorly sorted with broad particle size distributions and large fines content. It has significant cohesion, due to interlocking jagged particle shapes. Eulerian granular material flow modeling requires closure formulations for the granular material constitutive models (stress, friction, collisional and kinetic energy dissipation, drag, etc.). While closure models for spherical particles are available from particle kinetic theory, closure models for realistic non-spherical particles must be extracted from unit physics Discrete Element Model (DEM) particle interaction simulations and provided in the form of tabular datasets. The effects of particle irregular shape (non-spherical shape factors, angular particle surface roughness, and interlocking features) are simulated by approximating the particle features in the form of grouped elemental spheres to form composite particles in the DEM simulations. The effects of the wide range of regolith mixture particle sizes and the strong effects of the presence of the small particle sizes results in high cohesion and low porosity of the regolith mixture. The range of particle sizes is simulated by binning the particle sizes into an appropriate finite number of particle-size species and solving the problem as a species mixture. Combining these two modeling approaches enables simulations to capture both, the contributions of the irregular particle shape and the particle size distribution. The integration and maturation of the DEM-based constitutive model database generation process and poly-disperse mixture binning approach into the GGFS simulation framework are proceeding under funding by the NASA Game Changing Development program. The status of current capabilities will be presented in comparisons of crater characteristics resulting for spherical and irregular shape particles, and for mono-, bi-, and tri-disperse mixture simulations of Apollo LM plume-surface interaction. The computational results confirm the significance of including the particle shape and mixture effects. Going forward plans for the full implementation of the general poly-disperse regolith modeling capability and maturation towards NASA project application readiness under the GCD program will be presented.

Peter A Liever↗

Demonstration of Capability to Simulate Particle Irregular Shape and Poly-Disperse Mixtures Within Lunar Lander Plume-Surface Interaction

Plume-Surface Interaction (PSI) between lander engine plumes and regolith soil creates hazards in obscuration and contamination by particle clouds, high-energy ejecta streams, and landing area cratering damage. The MSFC Fluid Dynamics Branch is developing simulation tools to offer a predictive PSI capability to NASA customers such as the Human Lander System (HLS) and Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS). The Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) is the main application tool for coupled gas-particle two-phase flow simulations to predict the range of PSI effects from onset of surface erosion to deep crater formation. GGFS features an Eulerian-Eulerian modeling approach, treating both gas and granular material as interacting continuum phases. Modeling the lunar regolith granular material fluidic characteristics poses special challenges due to complex particle shapes and mixture composition. The lunar regolith is poorly sorted with broad particle size distributions and large fines content. It has significant cohesion, due to interlocking jagged particle shapes. Eulerian granular material flow modeling requires closure formulations for the granular material constitutive models (stress, friction, collisional and kinetic energy dissipation, drag, etc.). While closure models for spherical particles are available from particle kinetic theory, closure models for realistic non-spherical particles must be extracted from unit physics Discrete Element Model (DEM) particle interaction simulations and provided in the form of tabular datasets. The effects of particle irregular shape (non-spherical shape factors, angular particle surface roughness, and interlocking features) are simulated by approximating the particle features in the form of grouped elemental spheres to form composite particles in the DEM simulations. The effects of the wide range of regolith mixture particle sizes and the strong effects of the presence of the small particle sizes results in high cohesion and low porosity of the regolith mixture. The range of particle sizes is simulated by binning the particle sizes into an appropriate finite number of particle-size species and solving the problem as a species mixture. Combining these two modeling approaches enables simulations to capture both, the contributions of the irregular particle shape and the particle size distribution. The integration and maturation of the DEM-based constitutive model database generation process and poly-disperse mixture binning approach into the GGFS simulation framework are proceeding under funding by the NASA Game Changing Development program. The status of current capabilities will be presented in comparisons of crater characteristics resulting for spherical and irregular shape particles, and for mono-, bi-, and tri-disperse mixture simulations of Apollo LM plume-surface interaction. The computational results confirm the significance of including the particle shape and mixture effects. Going forward plans for the full implementation of the general poly-disperse regolith modeling capability and maturation towards NASA project application readiness under the GCD program will be presented.

Peter A. Liever↗

Two Dimensional Viscoelastic Stress Analysis of a Prototypical JIMO Turbine Wheel

The designers of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) are investigating the potential of nuclear powered-electric propulsion technology to provide deep space propulsion. In one design scenario a closed-Brayton-cycle power converter is used to convert thermal energy from a nuclear reactor to electrical power for the spacecraft utilizing an inert gas as the working fluid to run a turboalternator as described in L.S. Mason, "A Power Conversion for the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter," Journal of Propulsion and Power, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 902-910. A key component in the turboalternator is the radial flow turbine wheel which may be fabricated from a cast superalloy. This turbine wheel is envisioned to run continuously over the life of the mission, which is anticipated to be about ten years. This scenario places unusual material requirements on the turbine wheel. Unlike the case of terrestrial turbine engines, fatigue, associated with start-up and shut-down of the engine, foreign-object damage, and corrosion issues are insignificant and thus creep issues become dominate. The purpose of this paper is to present estimates for creep growth of a prototypical JIMO turbine wheel over a ten year life. Since an actual design and bill of materials does not exist, the results presented in this paper are based on preliminary concepts which are likely to evolve over time. For this reason, as well as computational efficiency, a simplified 2-D, in lieu of a 3-D, viscoelastic, finite element model of a prototypical turbine wheel will be utilized employing material properties for the cast superalloy MAR-M247. The creep data employed in this analysis are based on preliminary data being generated at NASA Glenn Research Center.

Gayda, John↗

The Cretaceous-Tertiary Impact Crater and the Cosmic Projectile that Produced it

Evidence gathered to date from topographic data, geophysical data, well logs, and drill-core samples indicates that the buried Chicxulub basin, the source crater for the approximately 65 Ma Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary deposits, is approximately 300 km in diameter. A prominent topographic ridge and a ring of gravity anomalies mark the position of the basin rim at approximately 150 km from the center. Wells in this region recovered thick sequences of impact-generated breccias at 200-300 m below present sea level. Inside the rim, which has been severely modified by erosion following impact, the subsurface basin continues to deepen until near the center it is approximately 1 km deep. The best planetary analog for this crater appears to be the 270 km-diameter Mead basin on Venus. Seismic reflection data indicate that the central zone of downward displacement and excavation (the transient crater is approximately 130 km in diameter, consistent with previous studies of gravity anomaly data). Our analysis of projectile characteristics utilizes this information, coupled with conventional scaling relationships, and geochemical constraints on the mass of extraterrestrial material deposited within the K/T boundary layer. Results indicate that the Chicxulub crater would most likely be formed by a long-period comet composed primarily of nonsilicate materials (ice, hydrocarbons, etc.) and subordinate amounts (less than or equal to 50 percent) primitive chondritic material. This collision would have released the energy equivalent to between 4 x 10(exp 8) and 4 x 10(exp 9) megatons of TNT. Studies of terrestrial impact rates suggest that such an event would have a mean production rate of approximately 1.25 x 10(exp -9) y(exp -1). This rate is considerably lower than that of the major mass extinctions over the last 250 million years (approximately 5 x 10(exp -7) y(exp -1). Consequently, while there is substantial circumstantial evidence establishing the cause-effect link between the Chicxulub basin forming event and the K/T biological extinctions, the results of our analysis do not support models of impact as a common or singular causative agent of mass extinctions on Earth.

Sharpton, Virgil L.↗

Joint operations planning for space surveillance missions on the MSX satellite

The Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX) satellite, sponsored by BMDO, is intended to gather broad-band phenomenology data on missiles, plumes, naturally occurring earthlimb backgrounds and deep space backgrounds. In addition the MSX will be used to conduct functional demonstrations of space-based space surveillance. The JHU/Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), located in Laurel, MD, is the integrator and operator of the MSX satellite. APL will conduct all operations related to the MSX and is charged with the detailed operations planning required to implement all of the experiments run on the MSX except the space surveillance experiments. The non-surveillance operations are generally amenable to being defined months ahead of time and being scheduled on a monthly basis. Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (LL), located in Lexington, MA, is the provider of one of the principle MSX instruments, the Space-Based Visible (SBV) sensor, and the agency charged with implementing the space surveillance demonstrations on the MSX. The planning timelines for the space surveillance demonstrations are fundamentally different from those for the other experiments. They are generally amenable to being scheduled on a monthly basis, but the specific experiment sequence and pointing must be refined shortly before execution. This allocation of responsibilities to different organizations implies the need for a joint mission planning system for conducting space surveillance demonstrations. This paper details the iterative, joint planning system, based on passing responsibility for generating MSX commands for surveillance operations from APL to LL for specific scheduled operations. The joint planning system, including the generation of a budget for spacecraft resources to be used for surveillance events, has been successfully demonstrated during ground testing of the MSX and is being validated for MSX launch within the year. The planning system developed for the MSX forms a model possibly applicable to developing distributed mission planning systems for other multi-use satellites.

Stokes, Grant↗

Conclusions of a Mini Technical Interchange Meeting on New Cross Risk Integration Projects Managed by the NASA Space Radiation Element

To enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space, the NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element (SRE) funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from exposure to space radiation that include risks of carcinogenesis, cardiovascular disease, and central nervous system decrements. Recently, the SRE was tasked with supporting multiple HRP Elements with innovative and enabling projects to inform risk characterization, facilitate mitigation activities, and support crew health and performance. These projects, such as precision health initiative, NASA Omics Archive (NOA) and human sample repositories, are agnostic to any HRP Element, hence the name, Cross-Risk Integration Projects (CRIP). CRIP serves 3 broad purposes: - Services: Generate samples and data and manage the receipt, inventory, archive, and ultimate redistribution of biospecimens created in HRP-funded spaceflight and analog research activities—includes NASA Omics Archive project and various human and animal sample repositories. - Method Development: Identify and evaluate new-to-NASA research or analysis methods or techniques that could fundamentally improve existing or planned research efforts—includes the Translational Radiation Research and Countermeasures Project. - Enabling Capabilities: Demonstrate real-world application by adapting, adopting, and/or developing capabilities to benefit crew health and performance and improve risk mitigation—includes Precision Health Initiative (Pharmacogenomics) and advanced biological systems and engineered tissue microsystems initiative (tissue chips, organ-on-a-chip). To identify new technologies, future work, and solicitations, the SRE organizes themed sessions at annual HRP Investigators’ Workshops (IWS). These technical interchange meetings (TIMs) provide a venue for the scientific community to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion of results, limitations of current approaches, and incorporation of novel experimental strategies, model systems, and other innovative techniques. Here, a summary of the studies presented at the SRE-sponsored mini-TIM at the HRP IWS along with the goals and objectives of the CRIP projects is communicated. The 90-min TIM had 6 speakers who presented impressive novel ideas and work, some of which are funded under CRIP by the Space Radiation Element.

Janapriya Saha↗

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

Issues in deep space radiation protection

The exposures in deep space are largely from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) for which there is as yet little biological experience. Mounting evidence indicates that conventional linear energy transfer (LET) defined protection quantities (quality factors) may not be appropriate for GCR ions. The available biological data indicates that aluminum alloy structures may generate inherently unhealthy internal spacecraft environments in the thickness range for space applications. Methods for optimization of spacecraft shielding and the associated role of materials selection are discussed. One material which may prove to be an important radiation protection material is hydrogenated carbon nanofibers. c 2001. Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

short duration↗

A Warm Garage for a Lunar Rover

Approach: One approach to heating a rover during the lunar night is the so-called thermal wadis concept [1]. This involves heating the regolith with solar concentrators and placing the rover on the heated surface for the night. Since the regolith is heated by a relatively weak heat flux, a high thermal conductivity is required for heating a sufficiently large mass of regolith. However, lunar regolith has a low thermal conductivity. Therefore, the concept involves increasing the conductivity by sintering the regolith, which requires a significant energy input and complex procedures. Here we propose an alternative approach where the low thermal conductivity of regolith is an advantage. Specifically, we propose to use a highly exothermic combustible mixture for heat generation. The mixture pellets are placed in the surface layer of regolith and ignited. The combustion forms condensed products and releases heat, which then slowly spreads to the surrounding regolith. Heat can also be transferred, for example, by heat pipes, into radiant heating surfaces installed on the ground. A greenhouse that transmits sunlight during the day and decreases the radiative heat losses during the night can also be installed. Selection of the Heat-generating Mixture: The reactive mixture should have a high specific energy and generate only condensed products since gases could disturb the regolith layer, carry enthalpy out of the system, and lead to an explosion. There are mixtures, (sometimes called pyrolants) that possess very high specific energies. One example is magnesium-Teflon-Viton mixtures used in flares. However, they produce gases and may cause explosions. Other mixtures that include magnesium cannot be used either because of the high vapor pressure of Mg at temperatures well below the combustion temperature. Recently, mixtures that involve lithium peroxide (Li2O2) have been proposedfor using in space power systems [2]. However, they produce lithium oxide (Li2O), which boils at 2800 K at 1 atm and hence at a lower temperature in vacuum. Fortunately, there exist many mixtures that release a lot of heat and form only condensed products during the combustion. Many such mixtures have been used for self-propagating high-temperature synthesis (SHS) of various materials [3, 4]. For the application discussed here, t itanium/boron (1:2 mole ratio) mixture appears to be particularly promising. The specific energy is 4.0 MJ/kg (1.1 kWh/kg), the adiabatic flame temperature is about 3200 K, and the reaction forms solid titanium diboride (TiB2, melting point: 3500 K). The mixture can be ignited easily with a heated tungsten wire, and it has been used widely as a booster to ignite the main mixture in the SHS process.Estimates: Assuming that specific heat of regolith is 500 J/(kg∙K) [5] and all generated heat is transferred to regolith, 12.5 kg of the Ti/B mixture would increase the temperature of 1000 kg of regolith by 100 K. To evaluate the rate of heat transfer in the regolith, a spherical model was analyzed where the heat released by a 12.5 kg Ti/B core propagates by thermal conduction through a 1000 kg regolith shell with no heat loss from its outer surface. At a bulk density of 1500 kg/m3 [5], the radius of the shell was 54 cm, while the radius of the core was about 11 cm. The calculations were conducted using Thermal Desktop SINDA/FLUINT (Cullimore and Ring Technologies) software at two constant values of bulk thermal conductivityk of the regolith: 0.001 and 0.01 W/(m∙K). The results show that after 14.5 days the core lost 31% of the released heat at the lower k and 77% at the higher k. At a distance of 20 cm from the core surface, the temperature of the regolith increased by only 1 K at the lower k and by 132 K at the higher k. In reality, the regolith near the heat source will be melted, so its thermal conductivity will increase significantly. Nevertheless, the conducted estimates indicate that combustion-based heat generators, placed directly in the regolith, could provide heat during a rather long period such as the lunar night.Conclusion: Heat generators based on gasless combustion of highly energetic reactive mixtures could be installed directly in the surface layer of lunar regolith. Because of the low thermal conductivity of the regolith, such generators would keep thermal energy for days and gradually supply heat to a rover/lander.Acknowledgment: The material presented in this work is based upon the work supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Grant #80NSSC20K0293.References: [1] Balasubramaniam R. et al. (2011) J. Thermophys. Heat Trans., 25,130−139. [2] Blair R.G. and Vasu S.S. (2022) Conf. Advanced Power Systems for Deep Space Exploration. [3] Varma A. et al. (1998) Adv. Chem. Eng., 24,79−226. [4] Levashov E.A. et al. (2017) Int. Mater. Rev., 62,203−239. [5] Wood-Robinson R. et al. (2019) J. Geophys. Res. Planets, 124, 1989−2011.

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