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From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments [Slides]

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. The ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. Our ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

artificial intelligence↗

Post-Transcriptional Mechanisms Respond Rapidly to Ecologically Relevant Thermal Fluctuations During Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination

An organism’s ability to integrate transient environmental cues experienced during development into molecular and physiological responses forms the basis for adaptive shifts in phenotypic trajectories. During temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), thermal cues during discrete periods in development coordinate molecular changes that ultimately dictate sexual fate and contribute to patterns of inter- and intra-sexual variation. How these mechanisms interface with dynamic thermal environments in nature remain largely unknown. By deploying thermal loggers in wild nests of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) over two consecutive breeding seasons, we observed that 80% of nests exhibit both male- and female-promoting thermal cues during the thermosensitive period, and of these nests, all exhibited both male- and female-promoting temperatures within the span of a single day. These observations raise a critical question—how are opposing environmental cues integrated into sexually dimorphic transcriptional programs across short temporal scales? To address this question, alligator embryos were exposed to fluctuating temperatures based on nest thermal profiles and sampled over the course of a daily thermal fluctuation. We examined the expression dynamics of upstream genes in the temperature-sensing pathway and find that post-transcriptional alternative splicing and transcript abundance of epigenetic modifier genes JARID2 and KDM6B respond rapidly to thermal fluctuations while transcriptional changes of downstream effector genes, SOX9 and DMRT1, occur on a delayed timescale. Our findings reveal how the basic mechanisms of TSD operate in an ecologically relevant context. We present a hypothetical hierarchical model based on our findings as well as previous studies, in which temperature-sensitive alternative splicing incrementally influences the epigenetic landscape to affect the transcriptional activity of key sex-determining genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Removal Accounting for a Sustainable Future: Distributing CO 2 Flows in Multiservice Systems

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) systems are an integral part of sustainable pathways limiting global warming to less than 2.0 °C. When the sole purpose of CDR is capturing and storing atmospheric CO 2 , carbon registries offer detailed procedures to calculate the carbon removal credits. However, the registries do not address how to distribute CO 2 flows when CDR provides additional services. Standardized, transparent rules for distributing CO 2 flows among CDR services are required for the formation of efficient private and public carbon markets. The lack of such rules could result in double counting if those reductions are allocated to more than one service, decreasing the trustworthiness of carbon removal credits or deterring the delivery of an additional low-carbon service, thus limiting the economic viability and deployment of CDR. We examine allocation rules in carbon registries and carbon accounting guidelines, including their life cycle assessment (LCA) principles. We evaluate physical (mass-based) and non-physical (economic) allocation methods using a generic CDR system and find both to be unworkable. We then develop a mass balance (MB) approach which can reliably allocate captured and stored carbon (CSC) between carbon removal credits and other services based on the value CO 2 removal in those markets. This practical approach to allocation can be used in a transparent way to provide flexibility that would allow CDR services to capture the value of the multiple services they provide and, through this, promote the deployment of these sustainable alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities for Utilization of Low-Cost Algae Resources: Techno-Economic Analysis Screening for Near-Term Deployment (Parts 1 and 2)

This report presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the production, collection, or procurement of several low-cost algae resources that may otherwise be considered "waste" biomass materials today, as well as the utilization of these materials through exemplary conversion processes to produce renewable fuels and chemicals. In contrast to conventional TEA models attributed to large-scale algae "farming" approaches, which may be able to produce substantially more biomass and thus fuels/products at a national scale in the future, this assessment focuses on understanding opportunities and costs for such "waste" algal biomass resources as may be available at considerably lower cost today. Economics for base case assumptions and a range of sensitivity scenarios are presented, employing conversion technologies that are simple and well understood, and thus may be deployed at smaller community scale in the near term, as a means to support and expand a nascent algae industry on the way to employing a larger commercial algae farm approach for commodity-scale production. Specifically, three algal biomass resources are considered in this assessment, as may be sourced from (1) municipal wastewater treatment (WWT) utilizing algae in place of more conventional technologies for nitrogen/phosphorus removal, (2) collection and removal of harmful algal bloom (HAB) biomass as proliferates in certain inland water bodies, and (3) procurement of residual biomass following commercial lipid extraction (EXT) operations performed at smaller scale by industry today focused on higher-value nutraceutical applications. These three resources are evaluated through two conversion pathways: (1) combined algal biomass processing (CAP) through a simple/low-complexity configuration, and (2) anaerobic digestion (AD). The CAP pathway produces liquid fuels and chemical coproducts (polymer for off-site upgrading to bioplastics), whereas the AD pathway produces biogas (specifically renewable natural gas [RNG]) and crop fertilizer coproducts. To streamline the discussion, this report is broken into two sections: Part 1 focuses on WWT-derived biomass, and Part 2 on HAB and EXT biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗

Using Separation-Enhanced Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry to Enable Increased Renewable Carbon Content in Transportation Fuels (CRADA 525)

Stable isotope ratio measurements of carbon atoms using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) can be an effective tool for quantifying biogenic carbon in co-processed fuels, with results approaching the precision and accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The lower cost of an IRMS may enable deployment to refineries, improving access and analysis turnaround times (≤2 hours), and, by extension, provide data that can allow process optimization to maximize renewable carbon in desired refinery products. This project explored the integration of chemical separation with IRMS analyses to enable highly detailed tracking of biogenic carbon into fuel product streams separated by boiling point range, chemical class, or specific compound. Forty-nine fuels and fuel components of fossil and biogenic origin, spanning gasoline and diesel boiling point ranges, were received from three refiners and were analyzed for their δ 13 C values via IRMS. Results spanned a 13 C range from ca. 10‰ to 44‰ and reflect materials derived from sustainable sources (e.g., C4 or C3 plants, animal-based pathways, syngas) or from fossil-derived fuels. Common ranges are approximately 18‰ to 9‰ and approximately 30‰ to 20‰ for C4 and C3 plants, respectively, and approximately 34‰ to 24‰ and approximately 70‰ to 33‰ for petroleum-derived fuels and methane, respectively. Fuel-like standards were developed and tested using direct-injection elemental analyzer (EA) IRMS for liquid fuels. This method was compared with the published methods, yielding statistically similar results. Four blend curve sets were produced ranging from 0% to 100% of a fuel containing biogenic carbon, focusing on 0% to 10% biogenic carbon. Linear fits were the most applicable for two of the four blend curve sets; however, two sets were found to exhibit slightly quadratic behavior, which was more pronounced in low biogenic blend samples, necessitating second-order fits. The origin of the slight quadratic behavior remains unclear; however, the discussion points to possible interpretations. CanmetENERGY thoroughly characterized a majority of the samples using one- and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC and GC×GC, respectively) and other analyses. Selected samples were subjected to solid phase extraction (SPE) for saturate, olefin, aromatic, and polar (SOAP) analysis, and the resulting solvent-diluted fractions containing saturates and aromatics were returned to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where the solvent was removed via evaporation or physical separation using GC techniques. Characterization and separations provided an understanding of saturate and aromatic content, as well as boiling point ranges for each sample and sample fraction. Samples resulting from SPE were examined using EA-IRMS and gas chromatography combustion IRMS (GC-C-IRMS) analyses. Both approaches suggest that the range in values between end-members can be increased by selecting the paraffinic or aromatic fraction of the end-member or by selecting among individual compounds resulting from GC separation of the paraffinic fractions. Considerable work remains to put these approaches into practice and statistically validate the benefit for using a fraction or individual compound over bulk analysis of a sample. However, initial results suggest that separations provide advantages for samples having blend ratios of less than 10% biogenic blendstocks. 13 C results showed statistically similar biofuel blend results to those obtained at PNNL, although additional work is needed to obtain better reproducibility. Select samples were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for IRMS measurements and Beta Analytics for AMS measurements. This work suggests that IRMS and AMS yield closely comparable results and in some circumstances, IRMS could serve as a surrogate for AMS. While additional work is needed to better resolve statistical advantages for separations and better show the comparable nature of IRMS and AMS in both the biogenic carbon analysis of bulk chemical classes, initial results from this study suggest that these should be pursued in order to proliferate this approach for quantifying biogenic carbon in transportation fuels to the refinery level, thereby potentially enabling process optimization in co-processing scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Lignin-derived electrochemical energy materials and systems

Electrochemical energy storage systems such as supercapacitors, rechargeable batteries and fuel cells have been proven the most effective technologies for energy conversion, storage, and management at different scales. Although a large number of electrochemical energy technologies have been developed in the past and they will continue to be optimized in terms of cost, lifetime, and performance, there is a substantial growing demand for advanced electrochemical energy systems. To deploy these advanced systems, the electrode and electrolyte materials with higher performance, longer life, and lower cost, must be developed. Lignin is the second most abundant natural polymer after cellulose, a byproduct from emerging cellulosic biorefineries, and a waste product from pulp and paper industries. Numerous researches have successfully demonstrated that lignin from different sources can be used as precursors or feedstocks for preparing high-performance electrochemical energy materials and components such as electrodes, electrolytes, membrane separators, and additives. Moreover, techno-economic analyses indicate that it is possible to prepare cost-effective carbons from lignin at engineering scales, compared to current carbon products. These facts suggest that scalable conversion of lignin into high-value energy materials will offer a promising pathway to not only promote the utilization and valorization of lignin but also boost the development of the advanced electrochemical energy systems. This review presents state of the arts of renewable energy materials derived from various lignin and their applications in electrochemical energy systems with emphasis on supercapacitors, rechargeable batteries, and fuel cells. Meanwhile, this article also aims to carve out the critical barriers for lignin-derived high-performance materials for energy applications, intending to identify viable approaches for synthesis of sustainable new energy materials.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on Wind Load for Achieving a Fully Competitive Heliostat Industry

The Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Wind Load Subtask was initiated with the aim of bringing research work pertaining to wind load measurement, characterization, and prediction taking place across several tasks, including Advanced Manufacturing, Components and Controls, and Field Deployment. The cross-cutting wind load subtopic in the HelioCon roadmap report [1] highlighted standardized methods and tools that are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads on a heliostat. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostat components to avoid unnecessarily conservative, overly constrained designs and increase field efficiency/reliability, to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events (>15 m/s). Gaps related to heliostat wind load include site characterization for wind measurements, critical load cases for heliostat design, turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, testing of heliostat array configurations, understanding spatial variation of maximum loads across the solar field, and heliostat field layout and operating strategies. The recommended highest-priority pathway as first steps taken by HelioCon to address these gaps are to develop site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and field load measurements.

Emes, Matthew (ORCID:0000000341474387)↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - 1.3.2.001 - Algae Biomass Composition

Addressing critical improvements in biomass productivity and associated biochemical composition is a priority for the economic and sustainable commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts from algae. Capitalizing on pathways that integrate engineering approaches with fundamental biochemistry of photosynthetic organisms will lead to a better understanding of the complex nexus of algae growth rates, productivity and composition. This project focuses on identifying the critical factors for economic development of fuel and bioproduct technologies. Algal compositional characteristics form the foundation of robust economic and business models. This project supports that foundation by developing and validating accurate compositional methods and disseminating them to the greater community. Simultaneously, we build a deep understanding of the dynamic biochemical composition and carbon allocation for biomass value and conversion yields. A co-product portfolio developed under this project demonstrated a 30% increase in intrinsic value. Additionally, an integrated pipeline of molecular diversity mapping for product discovery with quantitative demonstration across species was deployed over the BETO algae program. The advances made here are highly relevant to BETO's multi-year program targets of reducing costs and integrating dynamic biomass composition with conversion processes to provide options for bioproducts, all leveraging the molecular diversity of algae.

algal compositional characteristics↗

High-Resolution Sampling of a River Plume Front with Uncrewed Underwater and Aerial Vehicles

Sampling fast-propagating oceanic features is inherently challenging and demands versatile instrumentation and innovative strategies. This paper introduces a novel sampling strategy designed to capture such phenomena, exemplified by a river plume front. Our method revolves around modifying the preprogrammed pathway of an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) to dynamically track and three-dimensionally sample the evolution of the front. To enable the UUV to follow the feature, we adapt the use of a drifting gateway buoy to be positioned and trapped at the front’s convergence zone, allowing underway navigation relative to the buoy. In our demonstration, we showcase the effectiveness of this strategy by successfully conducting over 30 crossings of a river plume front within a 6-h window. The UUV sensors allowed a comprehensive assessment of key front characteristics, including density, velocity, and turbulence. Supplemental drone footage contributed to the overall picture and facilitated the transformation of the dataset into a front-following reference frame. This article provides an in-depth description of the deployment strategy and required postcollection data processing, including frontal crossing detection, the assessment of the frontal orientation from drone footage, and defining the plume bottom boundaries using backscatter intensity contours.

autonomous observations↗

Redox Catalytic and Quasi-Solid Sulfur Conversion for High Capacity Lean Lithium Sulfur Batteries

The practical deployment of lithium sulfur batteries demands stable cycling of high loading and dense sulfur cathodes under lean electrolyte conditions, which is very difficult to realize. We describe here a strategy of fabricating extremely dense sulfur cathodes, designed by integrating Mo6S8 nanoparticles as a multi-functional mediator with a Li-ion conducting binder and a high-performance Fe3O4@N-carbon sulfur host. The Mo6S8 nanoparticles have substantially faster Li-ion insertion kinetics compared with sulfur, and the produced LixMo6S8 particles have spontaneous redox reactivity with relevant polysulfide species (such as Li4Mo6S8 + Li2S4 <-> Li3Mo6S8 + Li2S, Delta G = -84 kJ mol(-1)), which deliver a true redox catalytic sulfur conversion mechanism. In addition, LixMo6S8 particles strongly absorb polysulfide during battery cycling, which provides a quasi-solid sulfur conversion pathway and almost eliminated polysulfide dissolution. Such a pathway not only promotes growth of uniform Li2S that can be readily charged back with nearly no overpotential, but also mitigates the polysulfide-induced Li metal corrosion issue. The combination of these benefits enables stable and high capacity cycling of dense sulfur cathodes under a low electrolyte to sulfur ratio (4.2 mu L mg(-1)), as demonstrated with cathodes with volumetric capacities of at least 1.3 Ah cm(-3) and capacity retentions of similar to 80% for 300 cycles. Furthermore, stable cycling of batteries under a practically relevant N/P ratio of 2.4 is also demonstrated.

lean electrolyte↗

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Driving Zn-MnO2 grid-scale batteries: A roadmap to cost-effective energy storage

Highlights Zn-MnO 2 batteries promise safe, reliable energy storage, and this roadmap outlines a combination of manufacturing strategies and technical innovations that could make this goal achievable. Approaches such as improved efficiency of manufacturing and increasing active material utilization will be important to getting costs as low as $100/kWh, but key materials innovations that facilitate the full 2-electron capacity utilization of MnO 2 , the use of high energy density 3D electrodes, and the promise of a separator-free battery with greater than 2V potential offer a route to batteries at $50/kWh or less. Abstract Large-scale energy storage is certain to play a significant, enabling role in the evolution of the emerging electrical grid. Battery-based storage, while not a dominant form of storage today, has opportunity to expand its utility through safe, reliable, and cost-effective technologies. Here, secondary Zn–MnO 2 batteries are highlighted as a promising extension of ubiquitous primary alkaline batteries, offering a safe, environmentally friendly chemistry in a scalable and practical energy dense technology. Importantly, there is a very realistic pathway to also making such batteries cost-effective at price points of $50/kWh or lower. By examining manufacturing examples at the Zn–MnO 2 battery manufacturer Urban Electric Power, a roadmap has been created to realize such low-cost systems. By focusing on manufacturing optimization through reduced materials waste, scalable manufacturing, and effective materials selection, costs can be significantly reduced. Ultimately, though, coupling these approaches with emerging research and development advances to enable full capacity active materials utilization and battery voltages greater than 2V are likely needed to drive costs below a target of $50/kWh. Reaching this commercially important goal, especially with a chemistry that is safe, well-known, and reliably effective stands to inject Zn–MnO 2 batteries in the storage landscape at a critical time in energy storage development and deployment. Graphical abstract

Spoerke, Erik D. (ORCID:0000000322862560)↗

Aquapv

This project brings together a multidisciplinary team to develop tools and analysis that will help U.S. industry accelerate deployment of floating PV on reservoirs and estuaries through producing: • A tool to assess potential environmental interactions of FPV on reservoirs and estuaries and thresholds for corresponding impacts. • A tailored FPV-specific techno-economic tool to guide users on financial performance and corresponding design considerations. • A synthesized tool, AquaPV, that combines the environmental and economic tools. • A set of case studies on an open-loop reservoir with a traditional hydropower plant (i.e., connected to a natural waterbody), closed-loop reservoir with a proposed pumped storage hydropower plant (i.e., manmade and disconnected from a natural waterbody), and a marine estuary (i.e., where a river meets the ocean), with an FPV system designed and modeled for each site. • A review of regulatory, environmental, and stakeholder opportunities and challenges to identify clear regulatory and environmental pathways to siting FPV on U.S. reservoirs. • A novel, high-fidelity geospatial resource assessment to estimate FPV technical potential on reservoirs in the United States.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗