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A Method for Measuring Coupled Individual and Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Although models of social vulnerability to environmental hazards are commonly developed to support policy interventions in emergencies and disasters, their utility is hindered by a lack of contextual information on individuals exposed to and affected by hazards. We develop a novel approach to model social vulnerability that couples individuals and their varying forms of protective capacity with the social fabric of the communities in which they reside. The backbone of our model is the Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), a product of the U.S. Census Bureau that preserves a representative sample of completed responses to the American Community Survey (ACS). The PUMS enables us to understand the full range of individual protective capacities against a hazard in an exposed area, which we term individual vulnerability profiles (IVPs). In this case, we examine IVPs in the Coney Island-Brighton Beach section of New York City, which suffered severe impacts during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. To manage the large number of unique IVPs in Coney Island-Brighton Beach, we perform a segmentation analysis to generalize them into thematic cohort vulnerability profiles (CVPs) representing a typology of vulnerable people in Coney Island-Brighton Beach during Sandy. From synthetic populations of CVPs, we then estimate how individuals in varying housing types were coexposed to Sandy at the census tract level by classifying these areas into community social vulnerability profiles (SVPs). Our results provide a topology of social vulnerability that simultaneously links individual, community, and population-wide concerns, enabling a more holistic understanding of resources and interventions beneficial to human security during events like Sandy than is attainable with area-level metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Giovanni in the Cloud: Earth Science Data Exploration in Amazon Web Services

Giovanni is an exploration tool at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC), providing 22 analysis and visualization services for over 1600 Earth Science data variables. Owing to its popularity, Giovanni has experienced a consistent growth in overall demand, with periodic usage spikes attributed to trainings by education organizations, extensive data analysis in response to natural disasters, preparations for science meetings, etc. Furthermore, the new generation of spaceborne sensors and high resolution models have resulted in an exponential growth in data volume with data distributed across the traditional boundaries of data centers. Seamless exploration of data (without users having to worry about data center boundaries) has been a key recommendation of the GES DISC User Working Group. These factors have required new strategies for delivering acceptable performance. The cloud-based Giovanni, built on Amazon Web Services (AWS), evaluates (1) AWS native solutions to provide a scalable, serverless architecture; (2) open standards for data storage in the Cloud; (3) a cost model for operations; and (4) end-user performance. Our preliminary findings indicate that the use of serverless architecture has a potential to significantly reduce development and operational cost of Giovanni. The combination of using AWS managed services, storage of data in open standards, and schema-on-read data access strategy simplifies data access and analytics, in addition to making data more accessible to the end users of Giovanni through popular programming languages.

Giovanni↗

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

Quantifying the Impact of Vehicle and Motor Fuel Provisions from the Energy Policy Act on the Sustainability and Resilience of U.S. Cities: Preprint

The Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992, with later amendments, was enacted with the goal of reducing U.S. petroleum consumption by building a core market for alternative fuels and vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy manages three federal programs related to EPAct; the Sustainable Federal Fleets Program, the State and Alternative Fuel Provider Program, and Clean Cities. Federal agencies and State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets are required to submit annual reports that document their compliance with the legislation. Clean Cities is a voluntary program aimed at building partnerships and providing technical expertise to encourage cities to reduce petroleum use in transportation. This study reviews the evolution of these three programs in relation to alternative fuel and vehicle markets and private sector adoption of alternative fueled vehicles to assess the impact of the programs on reduction in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions both within the regulated fleets and through development of alternative fuel and vehicle markets. The increased availability of alternative fuels and use of alternative fuels in regulated fleets is expected to improve cities' ability to respond to and quickly recover from both local disasters and short- and long-term regional or national fuel supply interruptions. Our analysis examines the benefits as well as potential drawbacks of alternative fuel use for the resiliency of U.S. cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantifying the Impact of Vehicle and Motor Fuel Provisions from the Energy Policy Act on the Sustainability and Resilience of U.S. Cities

The Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992, with later amendments, was enacted with the goal of reducing U.S. petroleum consumption by building a core market for alternative fuels and vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy manages three federal programs related to EPAct; the Sustainable Federal Fleets Program, the State and Alternative Fuel Provider Program, and Clean Cities. Federal agencies and State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets are required to submit annual reports that document their compliance with the legislation. Clean Cities is a voluntary program aimed at building partnerships and providing technical expertise to encourage cities to reduce petroleum use in transportation. This study reviews the evolution of these three programs in relation to alternative fuel and vehicle markets and private sector adoption of alternative fueled vehicles to assess the impact of the programs on reduction in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions both within the regulated fleets and through development of alternative fuel and vehicle markets. The increased availability of alternative fuels and use of alternative fuels in regulated fleets is expected to improve cities' ability to respond to and quickly recover from both local disasters and short- and long-term regional or national fuel supply interruptions. Our analysis examines the benefits as well as potential drawbacks of alternative fuel use for the resiliency of U.S. cities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Hurricane Katrina inflicted widespread damage to vegetation in southwestern coastal Mississippi upon landfall on August 29, 2005. Storm damage to surface vegetation types at the NASA John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) was mapped and quantified using IKONOS data originally acquired on September 2, 2005, and later obtained via a Department of Defense ClearView contract. NASA SSC management required an assessment of the hurricane s impact to the 125,000-acre buffer zone used to mitigate rocket engine testing noise and vibration impacts and to manage forestry and fire risk. This study employed ERDAS IMAGINE software to apply traditional classification techniques to the IKONOS data. Spectral signatures were collected from multiple ISODATA classifications of subset areas across the entire region and then appended to a master file representative of major targeted cover type conditions. The master file was subsequently used with the IKONOS data and with a maximum likelihood algorithm to produce a supervised classification later refined using GIS-based editing. The final results enabled mapped, quantitative areal estimates of hurricane-induced damage according to general surface cover type. The IKONOS classification accuracy was assessed using higher resolution aerial imagery and field survey data. In-situ data and GIS analysis indicate that the results compare well to FEMA maps of flooding extent. The IKONOS classification also mapped open areas with woody storm debris. The detection of such storm damage categories is potentially useful for government officials responsible for hurricane disaster mitigation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

The Future of EPA's Waste Estimation Support Tool - 17227

The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) is a GIS-based decision support tool for estimating the characteristics, amount, and residual radioactivity of waste generated from remediation and cleanup activities after a radiological incident, including those involving radiological dispersal devices, improvised nuclear devices, and nuclear power plants. WEST has been released to the public and has been used in numerous national level exercises and planning scenarios; however, it continues to be improved and refined to add additional functionality and performance. Since its inception, WEST has undergone a myriad of updates, routinely ensuring compatibility with ESRI's ArcGIS and FEMA's Hazus, a tool for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, wind, and flood events. Furthermore, recent enhancements have added reporting and mapping features and multi-state support. Over time, this progress has strained WEST's Microsoft{sup C} Excel based platform. The inherent limitations of Excel have limited the capacity of WEST and narrowed the scope of potential enhancements. Recent collaborative efforts between the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Science and Technology Directorate (S and T) and EPA will see the introduction of a new software platform for easing memory limitations and new and innovative features for improving the accuracy of waste estimates. The planned enhancements include: 1) Systems approach: measure or predict the outcome of decisions associated with disaster response (e.g., decontamination efficacy vs. waste) and to a greater extent, the overall resource demand (e.g., cost, time, etc.); 2) Custom infrastructure data and international support: accommodate non-US building information where available and also add new data and information on recently used decontamination technologies as applied in a real-world incident; 3) Additional waste factors: addition of waste factors that are unique to wide area scenarios such as vehicles and trees as they will likely contribute in a significant manner to the overall waste stream;4) Site analysis and logistics: apply spatial information and analysis technologies to locate and prioritize potential waste staging or storage sites; and use GIS-based logistics planning to better organize, route, and estimate the cost, time, and logistical requirements (i.e., resource demand) associated with transporting large volumes of waste from a disaster-stricken area to waste staging or storage sites; 5) Decontamination technologies: introduce new decontamination technologies, better understand the feasibility and efficacy of new and preexisting decontamination technologies when applied to a wide area incident, and use historical incidents to ground truth waste results; and 6) Resource demand: ability to estimate resource demand information associated with decontamination technologies, waste staging and storage, and logistical information for transporting waste. This paper will describe the next version of WEST (WEST 4.0), and how the aforementioned enhancements will contribute to improving the planning and response capabilities of the tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

Visualizing Comparisons of Bill of Materials

Protecting critical infrastructure from cyber attacks, natural disasters, and other disruptions is a priority of the U.S. Government. Critical infrastructure includes providing electricity to homes and businesses, supplying natural gas for heating, and producing renewable energy sources. A loss of these services, as seen in the Solarwinds supply chain attack in 2020 , Texas snowstorm of 2021, the Colonial Pipeline cyber incident of 2021, and the Washington power substation attacks in 2022 result in high costs to consumers, disruption of everyday life, and even death. To protect the infrastructure, we first have to know what equipment we are protecting. The complexity of distributed manufacturing and development coupled with the increasing prevalence of cyber and supply chain attacks necessitates a greater understanding of the hardware and software components that comprise equipment in critical infrastructure. When a vulnerability in a single software library can have disastrous consequences, it is vital to understand critical equipment and systems at a granular level. This need has led to increased energy around the development and incorporation of bill-of-materials (BOM) into existing asset management practices to aid in mitigating, and responding to future attacks \cite{noauthor_software_nodate}. While much of the current research is devoted to creating BOMs, it is equally important to develop methodologies for leveraging BOMs to answer questions, such as: How has my software changed? Are two pieces of equipment equivalent? Does this piece of equipment that just arrived match my historical information? In this work, we demonstrate how BOMs can be represented by graph structures. We then describe how these structures can be fed into a graph comparison algorithm to produce a novel interactive visualization that allows us to not only identify differences in BOMs, but show exactly where they are in the product.

Jones, Rebecca D.↗

What (and How) MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data are Used in Applied Sciences

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the global atmospheric data reanalysis for the satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)version 5.12.4. The data are officially distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 data have been widely used by the Earth sciences and application community. Since MERRA-2 data were released in early 2016, the number of registered data users has grown steadily from 1,252 in 2016 to 6477 in 2020. By the end of October 2021, ~16 petabytes (over 360 million files) of data have been distributed to more than 18,900 users. Searching in Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com/), we have found over 7,000 articles, published between January 2017 and May 2021, involving the use ofMERRA-2 data. The figure shows the numbers for various application areas in which theMERRA-2 data have been used, covering almost all of the application areas defined in NASA Applied Sciences (http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov). The largest number of articles are found in disaster research, with the subcategories ordered in flood, wildfires, hurricanes and cyclones, and other forms of severe weather. In this presentation, we will discuss the preliminary findings from a review of the selected literature that uses MERRA-2 data in applied sciences. The current analytic and interoperable data services at GES DISC are listed, such as the on-the-fly subset and analysis service, NASA Giovanni; THREDDS Data Server(TDS); and Python Jupyter notebooks. In addition, we will introduce two new services for supporting the open sciences: My Dashboard and Related Publications.

data management↗

HEMODOSE: A Set of Multi-parameter Biodosimetry Tools

After the events of September 11, 2001 and recent events at the Fukushima reactors in Japan, there is an increasing concern of the occurrence of nuclear and radiological terrorism or accidents that may result in large casualty in densely populated areas. To guide medical personnel in their clinical decisions for effective medical management and treatment of the exposed individuals, biological markers are usually applied to examine the radiation induced changes at different biological levels. Among these the peripheral blood cell counts are widely used to assess the extent of radiation induced injury. This is due to the fact that hematopoietic system is the most vulnerable part of the human body to radiation damage. Particularly, the lymphocyte, granulocyte, and platelet cells are the most radiosensitive of the blood elements, and monitoring their changes after exposure is regarded as the most practical and best laboratory test to estimate radiation dose. The HEMODOSE web tools are built upon solid physiological and pathophysiological understanding of mammalian hematopoietic systems, and rigorous coarse-grained biomathematical modeling and validation. Using single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, or platelet counts after exposure, these tools can estimate absorbed doses of adult victims very rapidly and accurately. Some patient data in historical accidents are utilized as examples to demonstrate the capabilities of these tools as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system in a large scale radiological disaster scenario. Unlike previous dose prediction algorithms, the HEMODOSE web tools establish robust correlations between the absorbed doses and victim's various types of blood cell counts not only in the early time window (1 or 2 days), but also in very late phase (up to 4 weeks) after exposure

Hu, Shaowen↗

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

Rocky Mountain Disasters - Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes. In particular, increased moderate- and high-severity fire significantly reduces forest cover following fire and often results in reduced seedling regeneration. Reduced tree canopy regrowth has chronic effects on upland ecological function and downstream water quality. This project partnered with the US Forest Service to estimate long-term vegetation recovery following four Colorado Front Range fires between 1996 and 2002—the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The random forest algorithm was applied to produce maps of percent forest canopy cover for coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and all trees using time-series variables for pre- and post-fire as inputs. Similarly, maps of post-fire seedling regeneration were produced using random forest for coniferous trees,deciduous trees, and all trees using ecological drivers (soil, climate, fire, and topography) and pre-fire remote sensing predictors. Relationships between ecological drivers of post-fire vegetation trajectories were also evaluated. Additional analyses were conducted to (1) assess whether seedlings could be detected by Landsat or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series analysis (2) assess pre-fire and post-fire Landsat variables against pre-fire and post-fire tree cover estimates to evaluate whether magnitude of forest change can be detected. Understanding variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type conversion, and watershed characteristics will aid forest restoration efforts and water quality management.

Eric Jensen↗

Scalable Unit Commitment with Security Constrained AC Power Flow via ADMM and Hybrid Modeling Strategies

This research introduces a more efficient way to optimize power grid operations, breaking the problem into manageable steps and using advanced mathematical techniques to speed up calculations. By incorporating smart heuristics, improved preprocessing, and contingency analysis, the approach allows operators to make better decisions faster. These innovations enhance our understanding of how to optimize energy generation, making it possible to anticipate failures before they happen, reduce system costs, and improve overall grid performance. Ultimately, this research helps bridge the gap between theoretical models and real-world applications, paving the way for a smarter, more resilient power grid. This research directly benefits the public by making electricity more affordable, reliable, and sustainable. By improving how power grids schedule and distribute electricity, the project helps energy providers reduce operational costs, which can lead to lower electricity prices for consumers. Additionally, the ability to predict and prevent power system failures enhances grid reliability, reducing the likelihood of blackouts that can disrupt homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure such as hospitals. From an environmental perspective, optimizing power generation reduces energy waste and lowers carbon emissions, contributing to cleaner air and a more sustainable energy system. Furthermore, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, these advancements make the power grid more resilient, ensuring communities are better prepared for emergencies and natural disasters. By strengthening the nation's energy infrastructure, this research plays a crucial role in improving economic stability, public safety, and environmental sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗

HEMODOSE: A Set of Multi-parameter Biodosimetry Tools

There continues to be important concerns of the possibility of the occurrence of acute radiation syndromes following nuclear and radiological terrorism or accidents that may result in mass casualties in densely populated areas. To guide medical personnel in their clinical decisions for effective medical management and treatment of the exposed individuals, biological markers are usually applied to examine radiation induced biological changes to assess the severity of radiation injury to sensitive organ systems. Among these the peripheral blood cell counts are widely used to assess the extent of radiation induced bone marrow (BM) injury. This is due to the fact that hematopoietic system is a vulnerable part of the human body to radiation damage. Particularly, the lymphocyte, granulocyte, and platelet cells are the most radiosensitive of the blood elements, and monitoring their changes after exposure is regarded as a practical and recommended laboratory test to estimate radiation dose and injury. In this work we describe the HEMODOSE web tools, which are built upon solid physiological and pathophysiological understanding of mammalian hematopoietic systems, and rigorous coarse-grained biomathematical modeling and validation. Using single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, or platelet counts after exposure, these tools can estimate absorbed doses of adult victims very rapidly and accurately to assess the severity of BM radiation injury. Some patient data from historical accidents are utilized as examples to demonstrate the capabilities of these tools as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system in a large-scale radiological disaster scenario. HEMODOSE web tools establish robust correlations between the absorbed doses and victim's various types of blood cell counts not only in the early time window (1 or 2 days), but also in very late phase (up to 4 weeks) after exposure.

Hu, Shaowen↗

A Multiple Parameters Biodosimetry Tool with Various Blood Cell Counts - the Hemodose Approach

There continue to be important concerns about the possibility of the occurrence of acute radiation syndromes following nuclear and radiological terrorism or accidents that may result in mass casualties in densely populated areas. To guide medical personnel in their clinical decisions for effective medical management and treatment of the exposed individuals, biological markers are usually applied to examine radiation induced biological changes to assess the severity of radiation injury to sensitive organ systems. Among these the peripheral blood cell counts are widely used to assess the extent of radiation induced bone marrow injury. This is due to the fact that the hematopoietic system is the most vulnerable part of the human body to radiation damage. Particularly, the lymphocyte, granulocyte, and platelet cells are the most radiosensitive of the blood elements, and monitoring their changes after exposure is regarded as a practical and recommended laboratory test to estimate radiation dose and injury. Based upon years of physiological and pathophysiological investigation of mammalian hematopoietic systems, and rigorous coarse-grained bio-mathematical modeling and validation on species from mouse, to dog, monkey, and human, we have developed a set of software tools Hemodose, which can use single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, or platelet counts after exposure to estimate absorbed doses of adult victims very rapidly and accurately. Some patient data from historical accidents are utilized as examples to demonstrate the capabilities of these tools as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system in a large-scale radiological disaster scenario. Most significant to the improvement of national and local preparedness of a potential nuclear/radiological disaster, this HemoDose approach establishes robust correlations between the absorbed doses and victim's various types of blood cell counts not only in the early time window (1 or 2 days), but also in the very late phase (up to 4 weeks) after exposure.

Hu, Shaowen↗