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NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) V4.1 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by satellite at approximately 1-centimeter depth) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3-meters depth). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from GMAO S2S spring reanalyses that assimilate/withhold along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the big 2015 El Nino, the 2017 La Nina and the 2018 weak El Nino. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrade the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of gridded satellite sea surface salinity observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-26990-DND

The warm phase ENSO event (El Nino) of 2015/2016 produced significant perturbations to the Tropical Pacific, from sea surface to tropical tropopause and above. Although there have been 3 El Ninos during the modern "A-Train" era, the most recent El Nino started earlier in the year, was located farther west and was stronger than those of 2006/7 and 2009/10. Using A-Train observations, we show that during the 2015/16 El Nino the center of convective activity moved from the tropical western Pacific (TWP) to the central Pacific, just to the east of the dateline. This caused a record amount of cloud ice to occur near or above the environmental cold-point tropopause. Coincidently there was a large positive anomaly in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, warming of the tropopause over the TWP, and changes to the stratospheric QBO. Using ten+ years of A-Train data and the MERRA-2 reanalysis fields, we explore the observed relationships between the 3D patterns of cloud ice, water vapor, ozone, aerosols and other trace gases in the tropical Pacific, and correlations with the ENSO and QBO cycles.

Melody A. Avery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Primary and Secondary Diversity Among Enstatite Chondrites and Implications for Their Parent Bodies

The enstatite chondrites (ECs) are noteworthy in having stable isotopic compositions similar to Earth and Moon [1-3], suggesting they were present in Earth’s feeding zone during terrestrial planet formation. To better understand these primitive meteorites, we have been studying their primary and secondary mineralogies and documenting the diversity among the EC groups. Since Keil's landmark paper [4] at least two major groups of ECs have been identified, now known as EH and EL. Lack of EC breccias containing both EH and EL implies at least two separate parent bodies. The ECs are a relatively small meteorite class making up less than 1% of all known meteorites with less than 20 unequilibrated (type 3) individuals known. However, with new samples returned from Antarctica, hot deserts and occasional non-desert meteorites, the diversity of E chondrites has seemed to grow, with potential new groups emerging [e.g., 5]. Based on sulfide compositions, division of EH and EL each into subgroups “a” and “b” has also been proposed and a minimum of four parent bodies for the ECs has been suggested [6]. ECs such as NWA 8785 have secondary minerals not present in other ECs, potentially representing yet another EC parent body [7]. Here we explore the petrologic diversity of EH and EL and anomalous ECs to evaluate their origins, alteration histories and parent bodies.

M K Weisberg↗
NASA NTRS2023

Spatial distributions of Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus from the Ediacara Member (Rawnsley Quartzite), South Australia

The spatial distribution of in situ sessile organisms, including those from the fossil record, provides information about life histories, such as possible dispersal and/or settlement mechanisms, and how taxa interact with one another and their local environments. At Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP), South Australia, the exquisite preservation and excavation of 33 fossiliferous bedding planes from the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite reveals in situ communities of the Ediacara Biota. Here, the spatial distributions of three relatively common taxa, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus, occurring on excavated surfaces were analyzed using spatial point pattern analysis. Tribrachidium have a variable spatial distribution, implying that settlement or post-settlement conditions/preferences had an effect on populations. Rugoconites display aggregation, possibly related to their reproductive methods in combination with settlement location availability at the time of dispersal and/or settlement. Additionally, post-settlement environmental controls could have affected Rugoconites on other surfaces, resulting in lower populations and densities. Both Tribrachidium and Rugoconites also commonly occur as individuals or in low numbers on a number of beds, thus constraining possible reproductive strategies and environmental/substrate preferences. The distribution of Obamus is consistent with selective settlement, aggregating near conspecifics and on substrates of mature microbial mat. This dispersal process is the first example of substrate-selective dispersal among the Ediacara Biota, thus making Obamus similar to numerous modern sessile invertebrates with similar dispersal and settlement strategies. Resumen La distribución espacial de los organismos sésiles in situ, incluyendo los del registro fósil, brinda información sobre las historias de vida, tal como los posibles mecanismos de dispersión y/o asentamiento, y sobre cómo los taxones interactúan entre sí y entre sus entornos locales. En el Parque Nacional Nilpena Ediacara (NENP), Australia Meridional, la excelente preservación y excavación de 33 planos de lecho fosilífero del Miembro Ediacara de la Cuarcita Rawnsley revela comunidades in situ de la biota ediacárica. En este estudio analizamos las distribuciones espaciales de tres taxones relativamente comunes, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites y Obamus, que se encuentran en superficies excavadas mediante el análisis de patrones de puntos espaciales. Tribrachidium tiene una distribución espacial variable, lo que implica que las condiciones/preferencias durante o después del asentamiento tuvieron un efecto en las poblaciones. Rugoconites muestran agregación, posiblemente relacionado con sus métodos reproductivos en combinación con la disponibilidad de lugares de asentamiento en el momento de la dispersión y/o asentamiento. Además, los controles ambientales posteriormente al asentamiento podrían estar afectando a Rugoconites en otras superficies, lo que resultaría en poblaciones y densidades más bajas. Tanto Tribrachidium como Rugoconites ocurren como individuos en varios lechos, restringiendo las posibles estrategias reproductivas y las preferencias ambientales/de sustrato. La distribución de Obamus es consistente con un asentamiento selectivo, agregando cerca de sus congéneres y sobre sustratos de tapete microbiano maduro. Este proceso de dispersión es el primer ejemplo de dispersión selectiva de sustrato entre la biota ediacárica, lo que hace que Obamus sea similar a numerosos invertebrados sésiles modernos con estrategias similares de dispersión y asentamiento.

Phillip C. Boan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electroluminescence Imaging: A Quantitative Characterization Technique to Measure Dust Occlusion of Solar Cells

Electroluminescence (EL) imaging is a qualitative characterization technique that is typically used to identify cracks, corrosion, and other defects in solar cells. It consists of imaging a cell under forward bias, where the solar cell emits photons due to radiative electron-hole pair recombination. Over the past few years, our team has expanded this into a quantitative technique with the help of image processing. We have primarily used this method to investigate lunar dust occlusion of solar cells and arrays. Lunar dust accumulation on solar cells is a major concern because it directly limits light accessible to the cell, decreasing power output. Many teams are working to develop dust mitigation technology to protect these arrays on the surface of the Moon, but thoroughly characterizing their efficacy is important to ensure their success prior to launch. Here, we present EL as a quantitative characterization technique to observe dust coverage on solar cells that, when coupled with IV performance measurements, can offer unique insights into how dust coverage impacts power output. Quantitative electroluminescence imaging works by running EL images through an image processing script that first grayscales the image then plots a histogram of the brightness of each pixel. On its own, it does not offer much insight into a solar cell’s performance. However, when comparing images to a baseline pristine, undamaged, or uncoated solar cell, it can quickly provide information about the impacts of surface contaminants or damage to the cell. Here, we present a case study where quantitative EL is used to measure the efficacy of dust mitigation technology for flexible solar arrays and discuss the lessons learned about dust mitigation, testing with lunar simulant, and this characterization technique.

photovoltaics↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

El Nin↗
NASA NTRS2024

Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models

Observational studies have shown that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The downward propagation of the QBO tends to speed up and slow down during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Recent results from general circulation models have indicated that the ENSO modulation of the QBO requires a relatively high horizontal resolution, and that it does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. Here, we demonstrate that the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2 ∘ latitude by 2.5 ∘ longitude but with its gravity wave sources being parameterized interactively. This is because El Niño events lead to more vigorous gravity wave sources generating more absolute momentum fluxes over the equatorial belt, as well as less filtering of these waves into the tropical lower stratosphere through a weakening of the Walker circulation. Various components of the ENSO system, such as the sea surface temperatures, the convective activities, and the Walker circulation, are intimately involved in the generation and propagation of parameterized gravity waves, through which ENSO modulates the QBO period in GISS E2.2 models.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS1966

Legibility of electroluminescent instrument panels investigated

Legibility studies of several EL /electroluminescent/ displays correlate reading time and accuracy with number size, stroke/width ratio, indicia size, pointer width, contrast, ambient illumination, and color background and and contrast. Human factor criteria established on non-EL displays may not apply to EL displays.

Mc Lean, M. V.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Containerless processing technologies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Acoustic and electrostatic levitation (EL) techniques for maintaining sample-wall distance in order to ensure contamination-free conditions during microgravity materials science experiments on board the Shuttle are examined. A laboratory model for acoustic containerless (AC) processing is described, noting the use of three commercially available drivers for sample levitation. The arrangement of the speakers results in a point node to which a liquid drop sample migrates. Varying the field through manipulation of the dB levels and phase of the drivers' outputs permits control of sample position and movement. Rotation of a styrofoam ball at 2000 rpm has been achieved. Oscillations can also be induced. An advanced version of the AC system is analytically defined, with further studies mentioned for stable levitation modes using a cylindrical chamber and optimizing acoustic power transfer between hot and cold regions. A tetrahedral EL system has proven to work in a reduced gravity environment. El involves imparting an electrical charge to an object and then positioning and maintaining it through use of EM fields. The presence of human operators to perform the processing on the Shuttle is mentioned as offering real-time capability of altering the experimental conditions.

Wang, T. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Enstatite chondrites - Trace element clues to their origin

Three EH and three EL chondrites have been subjected to RNAA analysis for 20 trace elements, and interelement correlations were examined in order to assess the effects of nebular fractionation and metamorphism. The refractory siderophiles Ir, Os, and Re correlate with the normal siderophiles Ni, Pd, Au, Sb, and Ge, in ELs but not in EHs. The two element groups presumably condensed on separate phases at first, but concentrated in metal during metabolism. Volatiles are consistently more depleted in ELs than EHs. Strong correlations are found for In-Tl, Tl-Bi, and Zn-Cd-In, which are equally consistent with predicted condensation curves for the solar nebula and with volatilization curves for artificially heated Abee. The three factors accounting for 93 percent of variance reflect volatile, siderophile, and chalcophile behavior.

Hertogen, J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

I-129/I-127 variations among enstatite chondrites

The iodine isotopic compositions and corresponding I-Xe ages were obtained for eight enstatite chondrites, bringing the total number of enstatite chondrites examined by the I-Xe technique to 11. Iodine isotopic compositions of these 11 chondrites indicate a well-defined hiatus correlated with the hiatus in chemical composition defining the two distinct enstatite groups: EH(4,5) and EL(6). Judging by the I-129/I-127 ratios and assuming that both the EH and EL groups originated from a reservoir with a uniform initial iodine isotopic composition, the EH(4,5) chondrites were estimated to be about 4 mln older than the El chondrites.

Kennedy, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Enstatite chondrites and achondrites as asteroidal resources

The highly reduced nature of the enstatite meteorites (chondrites and achondrites) differs from that of all other types of stony meteorites. The silicates in the enstatite meteorites contain almost no FeO. In addition, many normally lithophile elements such as Na, Ca, Mg, Cr, and Ti display chalcophilic behavior. A study of the chemistry and mineralogy of the enstatite meteorites was undertaken to determine their resource potential. On average, about 99 percent of the volume of an enstatite achondrite, or aubrite, consists of only four silicate minerals: enstatite, Na-rich plagioclase, diopside, and forsterite, with enstatite being by far the most abundant mineral. The remaining one percent of the volume consists of troilite, kamacite, and trace amounts of oldhamite, daubreelite, ferromagnesian albandite, and schreibersite. Thus, the aubrites can be considered as a possible source for large quantities of Mg, Si, and O, but are of little interest as a source of anything else. The enstatite chondrites appear to be more promising candidates for resource utilization. The chondrites are generally divided into two groups: EH (high iron, fine-grained, with abundant chondrules); and EL (low iron, coarse-grained, with little or no evidence of chondrules). Metallic Ni-Fe makes up roughly 20-25 weight percent of each type of enstatite chondrite. These meteorites are also a good source of nitrogen. This is due in part to the presence of osbornite and sinoite. The latter mineral is restricted to EL chondrites, which typically have a higher bulk nitrogen content than the EH chondrites. Three valuable metals, Cr, Mn, and Ti, are concentrated in a few distinct sulfide phases in the enstatite chondrites. These sulfide phases are troilite and niningerite in EH chondrites and troilite, daubreelite, and ferroan alabandite in EL chondrites.

Hutson, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global tracking of the SO2 clouds from the June, 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions

The explosive June 1991 eruptions of Mount Pinatubo produced the largest sulfur dioxide cloud detected by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) during its 13 years of operation: approximately 20 million tons of SO2, predominantly from the cataclysmic June 15th eruption. The SO2 cloud observed by the TOMS encircled the earth in about 22 days (about 21 m/s); however, during the first three days the leading edge of the SO2 cloud moved with a speed that averaged about 35 m/s. Compared to the 1982 El Chichon eruptions, Pinatubo outgassed nearly three times the amount of SO2 during its explosive phases. The main cloud straddled the equator within the first two weeks of eruption, whereas the El Chichon cloud remained primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. The measurements indicate that Mount Pinatubo has produced a much larger and perhaps longer-lasting SO2 cloud; thus, climatic responses to the Pinatubo eruption can exceed those of El Chichon.

Bluth, Gregg J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS1994

Annual and interannual variations of phytoplankton pigment concentration and upwelling along the Pacific equator

The following variables along the Pacific equator from 145 deg E to 95 deg W were employed: surface layer phytoplankton pigment concentrations derived from Nimbus 7 coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) measurements of ocean color radiances; vertical velocities simulated at the 90-m bottom of the euphotic layer from a wind-driven ocean general circulation model; and nitrate concentrations estimated from model-simulated temperature. The upward flux of nitrate into the euphotic layer was calculated from the simulated vertical motion and nitrate concentration. The CZCS-derived phytoplankton pigment concentration was uniform from 175 deg to 95 deg W. Longitudinal profiles of upwelling, phytoplankton biomass, and 90-m nitrate flux were of different shapes. The small annual cycles of the phytoplankton pigment and nitrate flux were in phase: increased phytoplankton biomass was associated with increased upward nitrate flux, but the phase was not consistent with the annual cycles of the easterly wind or of the upwelling intensity. Variation of phytoplankton pigment concentration was greater during El Nino than during the annual cycle. The substantially reduced phytoplankton pigment concentration observed during El Nino was associated with smaller upward nitrate flux. Phytoplankton biomass during non-El Nino conditions was not related to nitrate flux into the euphotic layer.

Halpern, David↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of the seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the Peru and California Current systems

Monthly composite images from the global coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) data set are used to provide an initial illustration and comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the western coasts of South and North America in the Peru Current system (PCS) and California Current system (CCS). The analysis utilizes the entire time series of available data (November 1978 to June 1986) to form a mean annual cycle and an index of interannual variability for a series of both latitudinal and cross-shelf regions within each current system. Within 100 km of the coast, the strongest seasonal cycles in the CCS are in two regions, one between 34 deg and 45 deg N and the second between 24 deg and 29 deg N, each with maximum concentrations (greater than 3.0 mg m(exp-3)) in May-June. Weaker seasonal variability is present north of 45 deg N and in the Southern California Bight region (32 deg N). Within the PCS, in the same 100-km-wide coastal region, highest (greater than 45 deg S) and lowest (less than 20 deg S) latitude regions have a similar seasonal cycle with maximum concentrations (greater than 1.5 mg m(exp -3)) during the austral spring, summer, and fall, matching that evident throughout the CCS. Between these regions, off northern and central Chile, the seasonal maximum occurs during July-August (austral winter), contrary to the influence of upwelling favorable winds. Within the CCS, the dominant feature of interannual variability in the 8-year time series is a strong negative concentration anomaly in 1983, an El Nino year. The relative value of this negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly in 1984 off Baja, California. In the PCS, strong negative anomalies during the 1982-1983 El Nino period are evident only off the Peruvian coast and are evident there only in the regions 100 km or more from the coast. Although negative anomalies associated with the El Nino were not present at higher latitudes (more than approximately 20 deg S) in the PCS, the extremely sparse sampling weakens our confidence in the results of the interannual analysis in this region. An upper estimate of the systematic winter bias remaining in the global CZCS data after reprocessing with the multiple scattering algorithm is given in the appendix.

Thomas, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global temperature monitoring from space

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Spencer, R. W.↗