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Sea surface temperatures from VAS MSI data

A procedure is developed for estimating sea surface temperatures from multispectral image data acquired from the VISSR atmospheric sounder on the geostationary GOES satellites. Theoretical regression equations for two and three infrared window channels are empirically tuned using clear field of view satellite radiances matched with reports of SST from NOAA fixed environmental buoys. The empirical regression equations are then used to produce daily regional analyses of SST. Monthly mean SST's for the western North Atlantic and the eastern equatorial Pacific during March and July 1982 were produced for use in the SST Intercomparison Workshop Series. Workshop results showed VAS SST's have a scatter of 0.8-1.0 C and a slight warm bias with respect to the other measurements of SST. The VAS SST's show no discernible bias in the region of El Chichon volcanic aerosol cloud.

Bates, J. J.↗

The ARGOS system used for tracking gray whales

The development of satellite whale tags used to track gray whales in the eastern north Pacific Ocean is summarized. Two gray whales were radio-tagged in San Ignacio Lagoon (Mexico) and tracked on their northbound migration. One of the transmitters was modified to record and relay depth-of-dive information at 15 sec intervals throughout the course of the dive. Technical elements of data acquisition and analysis are outlined. The major biological findings are discussed.

Mate, B. R.↗

Error trends in SASS winds as functions of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature

Wind speed measurements obtained with the scatterometer instrument aboard the Seasat satellite are compared equivalent neutral wind measurements obtained from ship reports in the western N. Atlantic and eastern N. Pacific where the concentration of ship reports are high and the ranges of atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature are large. It is found that at low wind speeds the difference between satellite measurements and surface reports depends on sea surface temperature. At wind speeds higher than 8 m/s the dependence was greatly reduced. The removal of systematic errors due to fluctuations in atmospheric stability reduced the r.m.s. difference from 1.7 m/s to 0.8 m/s. It is suggested that further clarification of the effects of fluctuations in atmospheric stability on Seasat wind speed measurements should increase their reliability in the future.

Liu, W. T.↗

Estimating ocean production from satellite-derived chlorophyll - Insights from the EASTROPAC data set

The EASTROPAC expedition took place in 1967-68 in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Primary production was related to near-surface chlorophyll in these data. Much of the variability in the relation was due to the light-history of the phytoplankton and its photoadaptive state. This was due to changes in the depth of mixing of the surface waters more than changes in insolation. Accurate estimates of production from satellite chlorophyll measurements may require knowledge of the temporal and spatial variation in mixing of this region.

Eppley, R. W.↗

Equatorial long-wave characteristics determined from satellite sea surface temperature and in situ data

SST maps and imagery derived from the NOAA 6 satellite AVHRR for June and July 1981 in the eastern tropical Pacific portray the wavelike structure of the cool water along the equator from 93 deg W to 125 deg W. Cusped waves of approximately 1000-km zonal wavelength and 25-day period propagated westward with a phase speed of 40 km/day. The observed meridional extent between the crest and trough of the waves is about 300 km. Details in the imagery show cooler water at the cusps advected north and then east with the north equatorial countercurrent (NECC), consistent with the suggestion of a series of anticyclonic eddies occupying the shear zone between the NECC and the westward flowing south equatorial current. Absolute SST estimates from the AVHRR data agree to within 0.6 C with shipboard data taken along 110 deg W between 5 deg N and 5 deg S. The wavelike structures in the SST maps are also in agreement at the surface with a vertical expendable bathythermograph temperature section made along the equator between 93 deg W and 125 deg W, which shows the phase of the waves tilting westward with increasing depth over the upper 75 m. Such a phase shift, if it extended 100-200 km meridionally in either direction from the equator, would be associated with an equatorward flux of heat. Similar phase shifts appear in temperature time series at depths of 20 and 50 m, from a mooring at 0-deg 33-min N, 110-deg 30-min W. Near-surface currents measured at this and a second mooring on the equator at 109-deg 40-min W indicate a regular pattern of northward advection when wave cusps pass them, followed by southwest flow during the passage of wave troughs, again consistent with an equatorward flux of heat, as well as with earlier theoretical and drift buoy findings.

Pullen, Patricia E.↗

Moisture transports and budgets of 'moisture bursts'

The paper discusses moisture fluxes and budgets associated with a pair of 'moisture bursts' in the eastern North Pacific Ocean area, described by Smith et al. (1985). The moisture fluxes were calculated using data obtained during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of the FGGE. The area specifically examined extended from the equator to the latitude 20 deg N and from longitude 180 deg to 100 deg W, with concentration on the region south and southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. From the comparison of the calculations based on dropwindsonde and radiosonde data and reports from commercial and military aircraft, it is concluded that the calculations of water vapor flow across latitude lines probably provide a fair representation of reality, especially when based on the dropwindsonde data. However, water vapor flow out of small volumes is not well represented by the results from either data.

Thompson, A. H.↗

A predictive monsoon signal in the surface level thermal field over India

The mean monthly surface thermal field over India during the premonsoon months March-May, based on mean monthly-temperature/minimum-temperature/maximum-temperature data from the network of 119 stations, was examined with the objective of locating significant predictor parameters for forecasting Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of linear correlation analysis bring out three areas for which the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfalls and the area average of mean monthly minimum temperature for April or for May were found to be significant. The best correlation was found for the southern peninsular area, where the mean May minimum temperature is significantly related to the 500 mB April ridge, a tendency in the Southern Oscillation Index, and a tendency in eastern equatorial Pacific SST.

Mooley, D. A.↗

Large-scale cyclogenesis

The development of several major cases of persistent negative height anomalies over the extratropical central North Pacific and eastern North Atlantic regions was investigated. These events were manifested at the surface by the development of large-scale cyclonic circulations and, at upper levels, by the formation of anomalously intense zonal jets. The data for the analyses were obtained from the twice-daily NMC final analyses of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure as well as geopotential heights, winds, and temperatures at all standard levels from 1000 mb to 100 mb for the fourteen winter seasons from years 1963-1964 through 1976-1977. The results indicate that, in many cases of cyclogenesis, baroclinic processes are likely to play an important role in the initial developments. At later stages, barotropic processes also provide significant contributions and play a role in the maintenance of the anomalies once they are established.

Dole, Randall M.↗

A new method for estimating the turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer

Temperature data in the mixed layer and net solar irradiance data at the sea surface are used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer. The method is applied to data obtained in the eastern tropical Pacific, where the daily cycle in the temperature field is confined to the upper 10-25 m. Equatorial turbulence measurements indicate that the turbulent heat flux is much greater during nighttime than daytime.

Imawaki, Shiro↗

On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Time scales and variability of area-averaged tropical oceanic rainfall

A statistical analysis of time series of area-averaged rainfall over the oceans has been conducted around the diurnal time scale. The results of this analysis can be applied directly to the problem of establishing the magnitude of expected errors to be incurred in the estimation of monthly area-averaged rain rate from low orbiting satellites. Such statistics as the mean, standard deviation, integral time scale of background red noise, and spectral analyses were performed on time series of the GOES precipitation index taken at 3-hour intervals during the period spanning December 19, 1987 to March 31, 1988 over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The analyses have been conducted on 2.5 x 2.5 deg and 5 x 5 deg grid boxes, separately. The study shows that rainfall measurements by a sun-synchronous satellite visiting a spot twice per day will include a bias due to the existence of the semidiurnal cycle in the SPCZ ranging from 5 to 10 percentage points. The bias in the ITCZ may be of the order of 5 percentage points.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Signorini, S.↗

Satellite Remote Sensing of Tropical Precipitation and Ice Clouds for GCM Verification

This project, supported by the NASA New Investigator Program, has primarily been funding a graduate student, Darren McKague. Since August 1999 Darren has been working part time at Raytheon, while continuing his PhD research. Darren is planning to finish his thesis work in May 2001, thus some of the work described here is ongoing. The proposed research was to use GOES visible and infrared imager data and SSM/I microwave data to obtain joint distributions of cirrus cloud ice mass and precipitation for a study region in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. These joint distributions of cirrus cloud and rainfall were to be compared to those from the CSU general circulation model to evaluate the cloud microphysical amd cumulus parameterizations in the GCM. Existing algorithms were to be used for the retrieval of cloud ice water path from GOES (Minnis) and rainfall from SSM/I (Wilheit). A theoretical study using radiative transfer models and realistic variations in cloud and precipitation profiles was to be used to estimate the retrieval errors. Due to the unavailability of the GOES satellite cloud retrieval algorithm from Dr. Minnis (a co-PI), there was a change in the approach and emphasis of the project. The new approach was to develop a completely new type of remote sensing algorithm - one to directly retrieve joint probability density functions (pdf's) of cloud properties from multi-dimensional histograms of satellite radiances. The usual approach is to retrieve individual pixels of variables (i.e. cloud optical depth), and then aggregate the information. Only statistical information is actually needed, however, and so a more direct method is desirable. We developed forward radiative transfer models for the SSM/I and GOES channels, originally for testing the retrieval algorithms. The visible and near infrared ice scattering information is obtained from geometric ray tracing of fractal ice crystals (Andreas Macke), while the mid-infrared and microwave scattering is computed with Mie scattering. The radiative transfer is performed with the Spherical Harmonic Discrete Ordinate Method (developed by the PI), and infrared molecular absorption is included with the correlated k-distribution method. The SHDOM radiances have been validated by comparison to version 2 of DISORT (the community "standard" discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model), however we use SHDOM since it is computationally more efficient.

Evans, K. Franklin↗

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Sulfate reduction in deep-sea sediments

Sulfate reduction rates calculated from about 200 DSDP pore water sulfate profiles have been contoured and plotted on a map covering most areas of the world ocean. Rates show a remarkable spatial consistency, with high rates observed near the continental margins, becoming progressively lower toward the central ocean basins. Relatively elevated rates are also found in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a site of upwelling and correspondingly high rates of primary organic production. Overall, the distribution of sulfate reduction in pelagic sediments looks very similar to the distribution of primary organic carbon production. When rates are directly compared, however, the correlation between sulfate reduction and primary production is only moderately strong. Perhaps the most important influence on sulfate reduction is sediment deposition rate and the control this has over the fraction of the sedimentary organic carbon flux that becomes available for sulfate reduction. The slower the rate of sediment deposition the more time for oxic respiration and the less organic carbon that escapes to the zone of sulfate reduction. To predict most accurately sulfate reduction rates, however, the variables of primary production, water depth, and sediment deposition rate must all be integrated.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Yang, S. C.↗

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Liu, W. Timothy↗