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Compositional Impact of Io Volcanic Emissions on Jupiter's Magnetosphere and the Icy Galilean Moons

The magnetospheric ion population of Jupiter is dominated by the 1000 kg/s of iogenic material constantly ejected by IO volcanism as neutral gas (approx. 1 kg/s goes out as high speed dust grains), subsequent atmospheric losses to the IO torus, and radial transport of torus ions throughout the magnetosphere. As that magnetosphere is greatly distended in radial size by the iogenic plasma loading, so are surfaces of the other Galilean moons also significantly, and perhaps even dominantly, affected by iogenic plasma bombardment, e.g. at the level up to 0.2 kg/s heavy ions (mostly O and S) onto Europa as per local plasma ion measurements. In comparison, cometary impacts onto IO deliver about 0.02 kg/s of impact ejecta to Europa via ballistic transfer through the Jupiter system. The magnetosphere of this system operates as a powerful engine to produce and transport ions from the IO source to the surfaces of these other moons, and any future orbiter missions to these moons must account for surface distributions of the iogenic material and its chemical effects before real assessments can be made of sensible chemical materials otherwise arising from primordial formation and subsequent evolution of these moons. This is a fundamental problem of space weathering that must be addressed for all planetary bodies with thin atmospheres and direct surface exposure to their space plasma environments. Long-standing debates from Galileo Orbiter measurements about the origins of hydrate sulfates at Europa present examples of this problem, as to whether the sulfates arise from oceanic minerals or from iogenic sulfur chemistry. Any orbiter or landed mission to Europa for astrobiological investigations would further need to separate the potential chemical biosignatures of life or its precursors from the highly abundant background of iogenic material. Although no single ion carries a tag identifying it as of iogenic or other origin, the elemental abundance distributions of ions to be measured throughout the jovian magnetosphere and in the local moon environments can act as tracers if we know from direct measurements and models the distributions at the mostly likely sources, i.e. at IO. However, our knowledge of these abundances are very limited from earlier in-situ and remote measurements, mainly confined to major (S, O) and some minor (Na, K, Cl) species with abundances at or above a few percent relative to O. Future in-situ plasma measurements by the planned Jupiter Europa Orbiter and Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter missions should extend the abundance coverage to minor and even trace elemental species. For Europa astrobiological investigations it is also important to specify iogenic inputs and surface processing of isotopic species. We discuss the range of abundance distributions arising from models for IO hot volcanic emissions, and from the subsequent dynamics of ion injection, magnetospheric transport, and icy moon surface bombardment.

Cooper, John↗

Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar: A Historical Review from a Decade of Observations (2007 – 2017)

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has utilized the Goldstone bistatic radar since the early1990’s to statistically characterize the low Earth orbit(LEO) sub-centimeter population. The radar provides a unique capability to detect orbital debris population sizes down to an approximate size of 3 mm for altitudes less than 1000 km, and even smaller sizes at lower altitudes. Due to the limited number of hours that are available from this radar each year, it is often used to validate measurements obtained by other radar data sources in the range of orbital debris sizes where the radar systems have an overlap. Additionally, the Goldstone radar provides significantly improved sensitivity than is available from other ground-based radar data sources, which enables it to observe orbital debris populations that, although smaller, still represent a significant risk to both robotic and human missions in LEO. Over the decade of observations from 2007 to2017, a number of significant on-orbit events have occurred including the anti-satellite test againstFengyun-1C, and the accidental collision between Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33. The orbital debris flux as measured by the Goldstone radar over this important time period is reviewed in this paper, as well as the evolution of the environment over the ensuing years since these events. In addition, the measurements provided by this radar in the years prior to the deployment of large constellations into the environment, as well as the significant increase in missions and mission participants in recent years, is of interest since it provides a baseline for monitoring the effects of these and other changes in the coming years. In 2018, the Goldstone bistatic orbital debris radar pointing geometry changed due to the decommissioning of the nearby receiver antenna, Deep Space Station (DSS) 15, located approximately 500 m from the transmitter antenna. The historical combination of the DSS-14 transmitter and DSS-15receiver enabled all of LEO to be observed using a single pointing due to the close proximity of the two antenna stations and the resulting beam overlap of the bistatic radar geometry. The updated bistatic Goldstone geometry, following the decommissioning of DSS-15,utilizes one of the pair of DSS-25 or DSS-26 antennas that are located approximately 10 km from the transmitter station. The resulting beam overlap with this pointing is such that in LEO, only a small fraction of LEO altitude coverage is observable at one time. Given the operational change of the radar, it is of interest to review the data collected by the original Goldstone bistatic radar over the final decade preceding this change.

Rossina Miller↗

Field Evaluations of Sampling, Interviewing, and Flight Tracking of NASA's Low Boom Flight Demonstrator Aircraft

The first year’s effort identified sampling and interviewing as the principal risks to assessment of prompt reactions to overflights producing low-amplitude sonic booms. It also 1) established the utility of geo-information system-based route planning for LBFD flight missions, 2) developed and demonstrated a prototype of a geographically-distributed, Internet-enabled instrumentation system capable of wide-area tracking of LBFD aircraft in near-real time. The latter system permits synchronizing the conduct of interviews in multiple overflown communities with arrival times of shock waves at interviewing sites; and of measuring, archiving, and processing their acoustic signatures. Means were also recommended for constructing representative, telephone-based samples of eligible respondents living in households within carpet boom corridors adjacent to LBFD flight tracks, and for conducting interviews with cross-sectional (independent) samples of such respondents about their prompt reactions to exposure to low-amplitude sonic booms. A detailed study design was prepared and accepted by NASA for a set of single-contact attempt telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of households. The study design focused on testing automated and live agent interview completion rates obtainable without callbacks. A minimal (two monitoring station) version of the aircraft tracking system was built and installed near a civil airport in a successful demonstration of the system’s ability to detect and track aircraft movements. The field exercise also demonstrated the ability of the system to capture the acoustic emissions of departing aircraft, and to serve aircraft position and sound level information to remote, geographically-distributed analysts in near-real time. Upon approval of OMB and IRB of the detailed study plan, a stratified, nationally representative sample of landline and wireless telephone-subscribing households was constructed. A total of 12,734 telephone interview contact attempts of the sort required by a straightforward cross-sectional study design were then made. These contact attempts demonstrated the impracticality of conducting a time-critical, cross-sectional study of prompt community response to low-amplitude sonic booms by means of “independent” (single contact attempt per respondent for each LBFD flight mission) telephone samples of respondents. The observed interview completion rates for these single telephone contact attempts were so low (~ 1% to 3% for automated and live agent interviews, respectively) that: 1) the representativeness of collected opinions would be susceptible to intuitive challenge as inadequate, even absent conclusive evidence of non-representativeness. Refuting challenges to representativeness would have to demonstrate that the composition of the actual sample did not differ from that of the target population, a task that is tantamount to proving a negative; 2) the information required to refute allegations of non-representativeness would require a questionnaire considerably lengthier than that required simply to determine the prevalence of boom-induced startle and annoyance. Such a questionnaire would have to inquire about potentially sensitive and intrusive matters, including respondents’ age, gender, education, employment, home ownership, income, ethnicity, family size, and other demographic factors; and 3) unreasonable numbers of attempts would be required to re-contact households with unsuccessful initial contact attempts, given the limited time available for doing so. For example, if about 500 completed interviews were desired in a supersonically overflown community, approximately 50,000 automated interview attempts would have to be made within ten to fifteen minutes of each LBFD overflight. Such large numbers of contact attempts could well exceed the numbers of households available for interview in areas of similar boom exposure levels in some communities near LBFD flight tracks. Such large numbers of interviews could be cost-effectively undertaken only by means of automated (i.e., outgoing interactive voice response) interviewing, a data collection method ill-suited for complex and sensitive questionnaire items. The infeasibility of independent sampling for evaluating prompt responses to LBFD overflights in a cross-sectional study is due in large part to simple non-response: that is, potential respondents – particularly those contacted on wireless telephones – refusing to answer calls with unfamiliar caller IDs. It is also due in part, however, to 1) the lack of time to attempt to contact the same respondent more than once within a few minutes after the arrival of a shock wave at the respondent’s location; and 2) the need to place calls during weekday/daytime hours, when response rates are notably lower than during evenings and weekends. Despite the poor interview completion rates achieved under the above constraints, cross sectional assessments of delayed reactions to LBFD overflights could still be feasible, if multiple attempts could be made to contact respondents during evening and weekend time periods, over extended time periods. Detailed plans for a longitudinal (panel) sample were developed as an alternative to a cross sectional sample design.

Fidell, Sanford↗

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

Galaxy Cluster Masses at Moderate Redshifts

The masses of galaxy clusters are dominated by dark matter, and a robust determination of their masses has the potential of indicating how much dark matter exists on large scales in the universe, and the cosmological parameter Omega. X-ray observations of galaxy clusters provide a direct measure of both the gas mass in the intra-cluster medium, and also the total gravitating mass of the cluster. We used new and archival ROSAT observations to measure these quantities for a sample of intermediate redshift clusters which have also been subject to intensive dynamical studies, in order to compare the mass estimates from different methods. We used data from 14 of the CNOC cluster sample at 0.18 less than z less than 0.55 for this study. A direct comparison of dynamical mass estimates from Carlberg, Yee & Ellingson (1997) yielded surprisingly good results. The X-ray/dynamical mass ratios have a mean of 0.96+/- 0.10, indicating that for this sample, both methods are probably yielding very robust mass estimates. Comparison with mass estimates from gravitational lensing studies from the literature showed a small systematic with weak lensing estimates, and large discrepancies with strong lensing estimates. This latter is not surprising, given that these measurement are made close to the central core, where optical and X-ray estimates are less certain, and where substructure and the effects of individual galaxies will be more pronounced. These results are presented in Lewis, Ellingson, Morris/Carlberg, 1998, submitted to the Astrophysical Journal. (Note that Lewis is Ellingson's Ph.D. thesis, who received direct support from this grant and is using this investigation as part of his thesis.) Three additional papers are in preparation. The first provides a comparison of the mass profiles as measured in X- rays and in galaxy dynamics. These profiles are difficult to determine for individual clusters, and are subject to asphericity and other individual quirks of each cluster. However, a composite profile for each method will allow us to test our assumptions of hydrostatic/dynamical equilibrium in the sample as a whole. A second paper provides a more detailed look at the cluster MS0906+11, which is a merging system. A third paper authord with J. Mohr at U. Chicago will invetigate the size-temoerature relationship for intermediate redshift clusters and its impications on cluster formation and cosmology. Future work on these data will include comparisons of the cluster galaxy populations and the extent of the intra-cluster medium, and a more homogeneous analysis of gravitational lensing.

Ellingson, E.↗

Spaceflight Autonomous Multigenerational Microbial Sequencer in Support of Plant-Growth Systems

The CubeSat platform has proven successful in obtaining meaningful life science information when biological payloads are incorporated. Examples include: 1) the first-ever CubeSat with a biological payload, GeneSat-1, which demonstrated decreased growth rates for flight samples of Escherichia coli in low Earth orbit (Parra et al. 2008); 2) PharmaSat, demonstrated that Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the microgravity environment exhibits a significant level of metabolic activity even at high doses of applied antifungal (Ricco et al. 2011); 3) O/OREOS, which used Bacillus subtilis(bacteria) to demonstrate for the first time that microorganisms can be loaded in a dried, dormant form and then rehydrated and grown in orbit months after launch (Nicholson et al. 2011; Ehrenfreund et al. 2014; 4) the SporeSat payload, which investigated Ceratopteris richardii(fern spores) using lab-on-a-chip devices (BioCDs) and minicentrifuges to produce artificial gravitational forces in ground studies (Park et al. 2017), with demonstration of the BioCD and minicentrifuge in space; 5) EcAMSat, the first CubeSat to be directly deployed from the ISS for an experiment assessing antibiotic resistance of E. coli in the microgravity environment (Padgen et al. 2020); 6) BioSentinel, exposed a culture of yeast to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar particle events while in heliocentric orbit to measure the rate of double-strand-break repair using DNA-repair-deficient mutants. This effort measures the metabolic parameters of yeast in a deep-space environment compared to Earth ambient conditions using a 3-color LED detection system (Ricco et al. 2020; Padgen et al. 2021). We aim to expand this list to include a Spaceflight Autonomous Multigenerational Microbial Sequencer (SAMMS). SAMMS will allow for the genome level understanding of changes in growth and metabolic activity for any organism. While microbes are suitable for early studies in our proposed platform because of their small size, small and relatively less-complicated genomes, fast generation times, and relevance to life support systems; multicellular organisms can similarly be evaluated for their genetic response to the spaceflight environment. The Spaceflight Autonomous Multigenerational Microbial Sequencer (SAMMS) will enable autonomous sequencing of biological samples in plant production units, cislunar orbit and on the lunar surface to examine spaceflight effects (ie. radiation, altered gravity, reduced pressures) on plant and microbial genomes.On this team a Kennedy Space Center (KSC) space crop production and water systems microbiologist/molecular biologist works with a Johnson Space Center (JSC) International Space Station (ISS) microbial sequencing expert and an Ames Research Center (ARC) CubeSat Engineering team to convert an automated Oxford Nanopore librarypreparation and sequencing method to a fluidic CubeSat payload system. The Oxford Nanopore MinION sequencing platform has proven successful in the spaceflight environment onboard the ISS (Stahl-Rommel et al. 2021). Further long-duration spaceflight and exposure to high levels of radiation will cause genotypic effects in biological organisms that may affect their function. Monitoring the adaption of a population to the spaceflight environment and any subsequent beneficial mutations will allow for the harnessing of organisms best suited for use in life support systems. This will ensure that the selected life support-essential microorganisms maintain their intended specified function over generations of culturing in the relevant spaceflight environment without becoming hazardous to crew or spacecraft systems.

Aubrie E Orourke↗

Stimulation of Insect Herbivory by Elevated Temperature Outweighs Protection by the Jasmonate Pathway

Rising global temperatures are associated with increases in the geographic range, population size, and feeding voracity of insect herbivores. Although it is well established that the plant hormone jasmonate (JA) promotes durable resistance to many ectothermic herbivores, little is known about how JA-mediated defense is influenced by rising temperatures. Here, we used the Arabidopsis-Trichoplusia ni (cabbage looper) interaction to investigate the relative contribution of JA and elevated temperature to host resistance. Video monitoring of T. ni larval behavior showed that elevated temperature greatly enhanced defoliation by increasing the bite rate and total time spent feeding, whereas loss of resistance in a JA-deficient mutant did not strongly affect these behaviors. The acceleration of insect feeding at elevated temperature was not attributed to decreases in wound-induced JA biosynthesis, expression of JA-responsive genes, or the accumulation of defensive glucosinolates prior to insect challenge. Quantitative proteomic analysis of insect frass, however, provided evidence for a temperature-dependent increase in the production of T. ni digestive enzymes. Our results demonstrate that temperature-driven stimulation of T. ni feeding outweighs the protective effects of JA-mediated resistance in Arabidopsis, thus highlighting a potential threat to plant resilience in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Theoretical Investigation of the Infrared Spectroscopic Properties of Closed-Shell Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Cations

Density functional theory has been employed to calculate the harmonic frequencies and intensities of a range of PAH cations which explore both size and electronic structure effects on the infrared spectroscopic of these species. The sample extends the size range of PAH species considered to more than 50 carbon atoms and includes several representatives from each of two heretofore unexplored categories of PAH cations: (1) fully benzenoid PAH cations whose carbon skeleton is composed of an odd number of carbon atoms and (2) protonated PAH cations. Unlike the radical electronic structures of the PAH cations that have been the subject of previous theoretical and experimental work, the species in these two classes have a closed-shell electronic configuration. The calculated spectra of circumcoronene, C54H18, in both neutral and (radical) cationic form are also reported and compared to those of the other species. Closed-shell species are inherently less reactive than radical (or open-shell) cations and are known to play a role in combustion chemistry. Since interstellar PAHs are typically exposed to abundant atomic hydrogen and are thought to originate under pseudo-combustion conditions in carbon-rich circumstellar shells, such species may represent an important component of the interstellar PAH population. Furthermore, species larger than 50 carbon atoms are more representative of the size of the typical interstellar PAH. Overall, as has been the case for previous studies of PAH radical cations, the general pattern of band positions and intensities are consistent with that of the interstellar infrared emission spectrum. In addition, the spectra of closed-shell and open-shell cations are found to converge with increasing molecular size and are found to be relatively similar for species containing about 50 carbon atoms.

Hudgins, Douglas M.↗

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

An Isolated Mass-gap Black Hole or Neutron Star Detected with Astrometric Microlensing

We present the analysis of five black hole candidates identified from gravitational microlensing surveys. Hubble Space Telescope astrometric data and densely sampled light curves from ground-based microlensing surveys are fit with a single-source, single-lens microlensing model in order to measure the mass and luminosity of each lens and determine if it is a black hole. One of the five targets (OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 or OB110462 for short) shows a significant >1 mas coherent astrometric shift, little to no lens flux, and has an inferred lens mass of 1.6–4.4 M ⨀ . This makes OB110462 the first definitive discovery of a compact object through astrometric microlensing and it is most likely either a neutron star or a low-mass black hole. This compact-object lens is relatively nearby (0.70–1.92 kpc) and has a slow transverse motion of <30 kms -1 . OB110462 shows significant tension between models well fit to photometry versus astrometry, making it currently difficult to distinguish between a neutron star and a black hole. Additional observations and modeling with more complex system geometries, such as binary sources, are needed to resolve the puzzling nature of this object. For the remaining four candidates, the lens masses are <2M ⨀ , and they are unlikely to be black holes; two of the four are likely white dwarfs or neutron stars. We compare the full sample of five candidates to theoretical expectations on the number of black holes in the Milky Way (∼10 8 ) and find reasonable agreement given the small sample size.

Astrophysical black holes↗

Impact of Variable Gas Mixtures on Bubble Size Distribution and Mass Transfer in Gas Fermentation Reactors

Gas fermentation has emerged as a promising new technology for the generation of fuels and chemicals from mixtures of greenhouse and energy rich gas streams (CO2/CH4/H2/CO) via microbial bioreaction. Example pathways include biomethanation (CO2/H2 to CH4), biogas upgrading, CO fermentation and wet-waste conversion. Effective Gas-liquid mass-transfer is an important physical phenomenon that determines the design and scale-up of these systems. There is currently a knowledge-gap regarding bubble-size distributions when using a mixture of gases with vastly different properties, which can have a significant impact on overall mass-transfer. For example, hydrogen bubbles are more buoyant compared to other relatively heavier gases (CO2/CH4/CO), resulting in a large distribution of residence times and bubble sizes. This work therefore develops a deeper understanding of bubble dynamics and interphase mass transfer in such heterogenous gas mixtures through well-resolved computational models. We use a detailed multiphase computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) model to study the impact of gas-mixtures on overall mass-transfer in bubble column and air-lift reactors. The CFD tool previously developed by the authors (1) for simulating aerobic fermentation reactors at scale is used in this study. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum, energy, and species transport equations are solved for interpenetrating gas and liquid phase in this model. We use a population balance-based bubble-size-distribution model that is validated against small-scale experiments in our solver. Results pertaining to multiple simulations of gas-fermentation reactors are presented where gas mixtures with varying compositions of CO2/CH4/CO/H2 are imposed at the sparger boundaries. The spatio-temporal variations in bubble-size distribution and mass transfer coefficient is analyzed for varying superficial velocities and gas-compositions for varying sizes of bubble-column and airlift reactors.

BIOMASS FUELS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Planetesimal Formation in the Outer Solar Nebula

A numerical investigation of the orbital trajectories of individual particles in the turbulent outer solar nebula has been performed. The (spherical) particle consists of an unchanging mm-sized 'dust' core surrounded by an H2O ice mantle; the density of both core and mantle is 0.5 g/cm(exp 3). The simulations include the effects of H2O condensation from the gas phase, H2O sublimation from the particle surface, and collisional growth via particle collisions with a background distribution of small H2O grains. The model nebula is an azimuthally symmetric minimum-mass nebula of solar composition with a vertical (and radial) temperature gradient. Particle evolution follows a pattern. A particle starting out in a cool region grows via condensation and collisional accretion until it is large enough (decimeter- to meter-sized) to decouple somewhat from the turbulence. (This growth occurs on a timescale of several thousand years at 10 AU; at 30 AU, the timescale is approx. 104 years.) The particle then moves rapidly inward toward the sun due to secular gas drag forces, sublimates much of its icy mantle, and slows its inward migration as it gets caught up in the turbulence again (due to its now-smaller size) at the 'sublimation boundary,' where the ambient gas temperature is approx. 150 K. Such a process could, on a short timescale (i.e., a timescale much shorter than the nebular gas lifetime of approx. 106 yr), generate a population of decimeter- to meter-sized bodies which would then collisionally accrete to form planetesimals.

Supulver, K. D.↗

Animal displacement from marine energy development: Mechanisms and consequences

For marine wave and tidal energy to successfully contribute to global renewable energy goals and climate change mitigation, marine energy projects need to expand beyond small deployments to large-scale arrays. However, with large-scale projects come potential environmental effects not observed at the scales of single devices and small arrays. One of these effects is the risk of displacing marine animals from their preferred habitats or their migration routes, which may increase with the size of arrays and location. Many marine animals may be susceptible to some level of displacement once large marine energy arrays are increasingly integrated into the seascape, including large migratory animals, non-migratory pelagic animals with large home ranges, and benthic and demersal mobile organisms with more limited ranges, among many others. Yet, research around the mechanisms and effects of displacement have been hindered by the lack of clarity within the international marine energy community regarding the definition of displacement, how it occurs, its consequences, species of concern, and methods to investigate the outcomes. This review paper leveraged lessons learned from other industries, such as offshore development, to establish a definition of displacement in the marine energy context, explore which functional groups of marine animals may be affected and in what way, and identify pathways for investigating displacement through modeling and monitoring. In the marine energy context, we defined displacement as the outcome of one of three mechanisms (i.e., attraction, avoidance, and exclusion) triggered by an animal's response to one or more stressors acting as a disturbance, with various consequences at the individual through population levels. The knowledge gaps highlighted in this study will help the regulatory and scientific communities prepare for mitigating, observing, measuring, and characterizing displacement of various animals around marine energy arrays in order to prevent irreversible consequences.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Damage areas due to impact craters on LDEF aluminum panels

Because of its exposure time and total exposed surface area, the LDEF provides a unique opportunity to analyze the effects of the natural and man-made particle populations in low earth orbit (LEO). This study concentrated on collecting and analyzing measurements of impact craters from seven painted aluminum surfaces at different locations on the satellite. These data are being used to: (1) update the current theoretical micrometeoroid and debris models for LEO; (2) characterize the effects of the LEO micrometeoroid and debris environment of satellite components and designs; (3) help assess the probability of collision between spacecraft in LEO and already resident debris and the survivability of those spacecraft that must travel through, or reside in, LEO; and (4) help define and evaluate future debris mitigation and disposal methods. Measurements were collected from one aluminum experiment tray cover (Bay C-12), two aluminum grapple plates (Bays C-01, C-10), and four aluminum experiment sun-shields (Bay E-09), all of which were coated with thermal paint. These measurements were taken at the Facility for Optical Interpretation of Large Surfaces (FOILS) Lab at JSC. Virtually all features greater than 0.2 mm in diameter possessed a spall zone in which all of the paint was removed from the aluminum surface, and which varied in size from 2-5 crater diameters. The actual craters vary from central pits without raised rims to morphologies more typical of craters formed in aluminum under hypervelocity impact conditions for larger features. Most craters exhibit a shock zone that varies in size from approximately 1-20 crater diameters. In general, only the outermost layer of paint was affected by this impact-related phenomenon, with several impacts possessing ridge-like structures encircling the area in which this outer-most paint layer was removed. Overall, there were no noticeable penetrations or bulges on the underside of the trays. One tray from the E-09 bay exhibited a spallation zone on the backside, approximately equal in size to that on the front side. Results from this study demonstrate that the impact damaged areas extend far beyond the actual craters in coated or painted surfaces. While the cratering damaged much greater than 1 percent of the total surface area, the total impact damage area exceeded 3 percent.

Coombs, Cassandra R.↗

Space Debris Environment Remediation Concepts

Long-term projections of the space debris environment indicate that even drastic measures, such as an immediate, complete halt of launch and release activities, will not result in a stable environment of man-made space objects. Collision events between already existing space hardware will within a few decades start to dominate the debris population, and result in a net increase of the space debris population, also in size regimes which may cause further catastrophic collisions. Such a collisional cascading will ultimately lead to a run-away situation ("Kessler syndrome"), with no further possibility of human intervention. The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has been investigating the status and the stability of the space debris environment in several studies by first looking into space traffic management possibilities and then investigating means of mitigating the creation of space debris. In an ongoing activity, an IAA study group looks at ways of active space debris environment remediation. In contrast to the former mitigation study, the current activity concentrates on the active removal of small and large objects, such as defunct spacecraft, orbital stages, and mission-related objects, which serve as a latent mass reservoir that fuels initial catastrophic collisions and later collisional cascading. The paper will outline different mass removal concepts, e.g. based on directed energy, tethers (momentum exchange or electrodynamic), aerodynamic drag augmentation, solar sails, auxiliary propulsion units, retarding surfaces, or on-orbit capture. Apart from physical principles of the proposed concepts, their applicability to different orbital regimes, and their effectiveness concerning mass removal efficiency will be analyzed. The IAA activity on space debris environment remediation is a truly international project which involves more than 23 contributing authors from 9 different nations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

Estimating the Rate of Occurrence of Renal Stones in Astronauts

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidence of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question "How much does this risk change with space flight?" remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone presentation. The modeling process utilizes a Population Balance Equation based model developed in the companion IWS abstract by Kassemi et al. (2016) to evaluate the maximum growth and agglomeration potential from a specified set of urine chemistry values. Changes in renal stone occurrence rates are obtained from this model in a probabilistic simulation that interrogates the range of possible urine chemistries using Monte Carlo techniques. Subsequently, each randomly sampled urine chemistry undergoes speciation analysis using the well-established Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) code to calculate critical values, such as ionic strength and relative supersaturation. The Kassemi model utilizes this information to predict the mean and maximum stone size. We close the assessment loop by using a transfer function that estimates the rate of stone formation from combining the relative supersaturation and both the mean and maximum free stone growth sizes. The transfer function is established by a simulation analysis which combines population stone formation rates and Poisson regression. Training this transfer function requires using the output of the aforementioned assessment steps with inputs from known non-stone-former and known stone-former urine chemistries. Established in a Monte Carlo system, the entire renal stone analysis model produces a probability distribution of the stone formation rate and an expected uncertainty in the estimate. The utility of this analysis will be demonstrated by showing the change in renal stone occurrence predicted by this method using urine chemistry distributions published in Whitson et al. 2009. A comparison to the model predictions to previous assessments of renal stone risk will be used to illustrate initial validation of the model.

gravitational physiology↗

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

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