Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Deconvoluting the Friction Stir Weld Process for Optimizing Welds

In the friction stir welding process, the rotating surfaces of the pin and shoulder contact the weld metal and force a rotational flow within the weld metal. Heat, generated by the metal deformation as well as frictional slippage with the contact surface, softens the metal and makes it easier to deform. As in any thermo-mechanical processing of metal, the flow conditions are critical to the quality of the weld. For example, extrusion of metal from under the shoulder of an excessively hot weld may relax local pressure and result in wormhole defects. The trace of the weld joint in the wake of the weld may vary geometrically depending upon the flow streamlines around the tool with some geometry more vulnerable to loss of strength from joint contamination than others. The material flow path around the tool cannot be seen in real time during the weld. By using analytical "tools" based upon the principles of mathematics and physics, a weld model can be created to compute features that can be observed. By comparing the computed observations with actual data, the weld model can be validated or adjusted to get better agreement. Inputs to the model to predict weld structures and properties include: hot working properties ofthe metal, pin tool geometry, travel rate, rotation and plunge force. Since metals record their prior hot working history, the hot working conditions imparted during FSW can be quantified by interpreting the final microstructure. Variations in texture and grain size result from variations in the strain accommodated at a given strain rate and temperature. Microstructural data from a variety of FSWs has been correlated with prior marker studies to contribute to our understanding of the FSW process. Once this stage is reached, the weld modeling process can save significant development costs by reducing costly trial-and-error approaches to obtaining quality welds.

Schneider, Judy↗
NASA NTRS1986

Multibeam Antenna Design and Development for NASA Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS)

The design of the ACTS multibeam antenna is described, and its performance is evaluated. The multibeam antenna is designed to cover the continential U.S. and provides three fixed spot beams for high burst rate operations and two scanning beams for low burst rate operations. The antenna has one main reflector, a dual polarized subreflector, and two orthogonal feed assemblies. The feed system is to receive a linearly polarized communication signal from 28.9-30.0 GHz and to provide the elevation and azimuth error tracking signals at 29.975 GHz with a 0.01 deg tracking accuracy. The feed system uses a single multiflare conical horn and a multimode coupler to provide a symmetric primary pattern for the communication signal. The sidelobe characteristics of the reflector, and the relation between the sidelobe level and surface distortion are studied. It is noted that the performance measurements for the multibeam antenna correlate well with predictions for secondary patterns and scan characteristics.

Choung, Youn H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Digital accumulators in phase and frequency tracking loops

Results on the effects of digital accumulators in phase and frequency tracking loops are presented. Digital accumulators or summers are used extensively in digital signal processing to perform averaging or to reduce processing rates to acceptable levels. For tracking the Doppler of high-dynamic targets at low carrier-to-noise ratios, it is shown through simulation and experiment that digital accumulators can contribute an additional loss in operating threshold. This loss was not considered in any previous study and needs to be accounted for in performance prediction analysis. Simulation and measurement results are used to characterize the loss due to the digital summers for three different tracking loops: a digital phase-locked loop, a cross-product automatic frequency tracking loop, and an extended Kalman filter. The tracking algorithms are compared with respect to their frequency error performance and their ability to maintain lock during severe maneuvers at various carrier-to-noise ratios. It is shown that failure to account for the effect of accumulators can result in an inaccurate performance prediction, the extent of which depends highly on the algorithm used.

Hinedi, Sami↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic solvent chamber propagation estimation framework using RNN for warm solvent injection in heterogeneous reservoirs

Warm solvent injection (WSI), injecting low-temperature solvent into formations to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, is a clean technology for heavy oil production through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage. The success of WSI operation depends on the uniform development and propagation of solvent chambers in reservoirs. However, reservoir heterogeneity stemming from shale barriers plays a detrimental role in the conformance of solvent chamber development and oil production rate. In this work, we developed a novel recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework with the capability of efficiently tracking and estimating the solvent chamber positions in heterogeneous reservoirs based on only production time-series data. The developed estimation model utilizes the “sequence-to-sequence" mapping methodology to correlate observed production time-series sequence and solvent chamber edge sequence via a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The trained RNN models exhibit high accuracy, evidenced by the predicted dynamic solvent chamber locations match the corresponding true locations from numerical simulation, with a high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and a low mean squared error. Specifically, the achieved R 2 values exceed 0.98 on both the training and testing data. The developed RNN-based workflow was tested via several cases from both regularly- and irregularly-shaped shale barriers, and the results were promising. The predicted solvent chambers showed strong agreement with those obtained from numerical simulations. The major benefits of this workflow include reducing computational time and saving overall monitoring and tracking costs for conventional techniques. In conclusion, the present work would provide a good demonstration of the capability of practical integration of machine learning methods in solving engineering problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association Kinetics for Perfluorinated n -Alkyl Radicals

Radical-radical reaction channels are important in the pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In particular, unimolecular dissociation reactions within unbranched n-perfluoroalkyl chains, and their corresponding reverse barrierless association reactions, are expected to be significant contributors to the gas-phase thermal decomposition of families of species such as perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorinated sulfonic acids. Unfortunately, experimental data for these reactions are scarce and uncertain. Furthermore, obtaining reliable theoretical predictions for such reactions is a laborious and computationally intensive task. Here, in this work, the chemical kinetics of the various association/decomposition reactions producing/decomposing the C 2 -C 4 series of unbranched n-perfluoroalkanes (C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 , and C 4 F 10 ) are examined using state-of-the-art ab initio transition-state-theory-based master-equation calculations. The variable-reaction-coordinate transition-state theory (VRC-TST) formalism is employed in computing the microcanonical and canonical rates for the association reactions. Reaction thermochemistry is obtained via composite quantum chemistry calculations and the laddering of error-canceling reaction schemes via a connectivity-based hierarchy approach employing ANL1/ANL0-style reference energies. Lennard-Jones collision model parameters for the considered systems were estimated by a direct dynamics approach, and collisional energy transfer parameters were obtained from analogies to systems of similar size and heavy-atom connectivity. A one-dimensional master equation approach was used to convert the microcanonical rate coefficients from the VRC-TST analysis into temperature- and pressure-dependent rate constants for the association reactions and the reverse dissociation reactions. The data are reported in standardized formats for usage in comprehensive chemical kinetic models for PFAS thermal destruction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2001

Cross Calibration of TOMS, SBUV/2 and Sciamachy Radiances from Ground Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify recovery. We have shown that validation of radiances is the most effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Validation of radiances will also improve all higher level data products derived from the satellite observations. Backscatter algorithms suffer from several errors such as unrepresentative a-priori data and air mass factor corrections. Radiance comparisons employ forward models but are inherently more accurate and than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called "Skyrad", employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS. SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOME-2, OMI, and OMPS. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method.

Hillsenrath, Ernest↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical Photometric Observations of GEO Debris

We report on a continuing program of optical photometric measurements of faint orbital debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). These observations can be compared with laboratory studies of actual spacecraft materials in an effort to determine what the faint debris at GEO may be. We have optical observations from Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile of two samples of debris: 1. GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the CTIO/SMARTS 0.9-m for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 t11 magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. 2. A smaller sample of high area to mass ratio (AMR) objects discovered independently, and acquired using predictions from orbits derived from independent tracking data collected days prior to the observations. Our optical observations in standard astronomical BVRI filters are done with either telescope, and with the telescope tracking the debris object at the object's angular rate. Observations in different filters are obtained sequentially. We have obtained 71 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes. A total of 66 of these sequences have 3 or more good measurements in all filters (not contaminated by star streaks or in Earth's shadow). Most of these sequences show brightness variations, but a small subset has observed brightness variations consistent with that expected from observational errors alone. The majority of these stable objects are redder than a solar color in both B-R and R-I. There is no dependence on color with brightness. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus, the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface. We will compare our observations with models and laboratory measurements of selected surfaces.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1990

Vector Sum Excited Linear Prediction (VSELP) speech coding at 4.8 kbps

Code Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) speech coders exhibit good performance at data rates as low as 4800 bps. The major drawback to CELP type coders is their larger computational requirements. The Vector Sum Excited Linear Prediction (VSELP) speech coder utilizes a codebook with a structure which allows for a very efficient search procedure. Other advantages of the VSELP codebook structure is discussed and a detailed description of a 4.8 kbps VSELP coder is given. This coder is an improved version of the VSELP algorithm, which finished first in the NSA's evaluation of the 4.8 kbps speech coders. The coder uses a subsample resolution single tap long term predictor, a single VSELP excitation codebook, a novel gain quantizer which is robust to channel errors, and a new adaptive pre/postfilter arrangement.

Gerson, Ira A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A User Guide for Smoothing Air Traffic Radar Data

Matlab software was written to provide smoothing of radar tracking data to simulate ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) data in order to test a tactical conflict probe. The probe, called TSAFE (Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment), is designed to handle air-traffic conflicts left undetected or unresolved when loss-of-separation is predicted to occur within approximately two minutes. The data stream that is down-linked from an aircraft equipped with an ADS-B system would include accurate GPS-derived position and velocity information at sample rates of 1 Hz. Nation-wide ADS-B equipage (mandated by 2020) should improve surveillance accuracy and TSAFE performance. Currently, position data are provided by Center radar (nominal 12-sec samples) and Terminal radar (nominal 4.8-sec samples). Aircraft ground speed and ground track are estimated using real-time filtering, causing lags up to 60 sec, compromising performance of a tactical resolution tool. Offline smoothing of radar data reduces wild-point errors, provides a sample rate as high as 1 Hz, and yields more accurate and lag-free estimates of ground speed, ground track, and climb rate. Until full ADS-B implementation is available, smoothed radar data should provide reasonable track estimates for testing TSAFE in an ADS-B-like environment. An example illustrates the smoothing of radar data and shows a comparison of smoothed-radar and ADS-B tracking. This document is intended to serve as a guide for using the smoothing software.

Center/Tracon Radar↗
NASA NTRS1961

Predicted Performance of On-Off Systems for Precise Satellite Attitude Control

An investigation has been made of the use of on-off reaction jets for precision attitude control of a satellite. Since a symmetrical vehicle is assumed, only single-axis control needs to be considered. The responses to initial disturbances and also limit-cycle characteristics for several systems have been evaluated. Calculated results indicate that realistic values of settling time and fuel consumption for the example considered can be obtained. The performance of a given system depends on the characteristics of the error detector used. In cases where the detector output was saturated for a relatively low error input, the settling time deteriorated when a lead network was used to provide damping. This deterioration could be eliminated if a separate rate signal to produce vehicle rate limiting were available. As an alternate approach, two systems were investigated which used a timed sequence of torques and could operate with a detector output of very small linear range. Although the performance of these systems was poorer than that of the lead network system without detector saturation, the performance was better than that of the lead network system with low values of detector saturation. The effects on limit-cycle characteristics of hysteresis, lead network constants, dead zone, and thrust time delays were also investigated.

Brown, Stuart C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling Aircraft Wing Loads from Flight Data Using Neural Networks

Neural networks were used to model wing bending-moment loads, torsion loads, and control surface hinge-moments of the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft. Accurate loads models are required for the development of control laws designed to increase roll performance through wing twist while not exceeding load limits. Inputs to the model include aircraft rates, accelerations, and control surface positions. Neural networks were chosen to model aircraft loads because they can account for uncharacterized nonlinear effects while retaining the capability to generalize. The accuracy of the neural network models was improved by first developing linear loads models to use as starting points for network training. Neural networks were then trained with flight data for rolls, loaded reversals, wind-up-turns, and individual control surface doublets for load excitation. Generalization was improved by using gain weighting and early stopping. Results are presented for neural network loads models of four wing loads and four control surface hinge moments at Mach 0.90 and an altitude of 15,000 ft. An average model prediction error reduction of 18.6 percent was calculated for the neural network models when compared to the linear models. This paper documents the input data conditioning, input parameter selection, structure, training, and validation of the neural network models.

Allen, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗
NASA NTRS1980

Tidal-friction theory of the earth-moon system

Serious errors contained in Jeffreys' (1952, 1959, 1970, 1976) discussion of tidal friction in the earth-moon system are identified and their consequences are discussed. A direct solution of the dynamical tidal equations for the couple from the earth acting upon the moon and the couple from the earth acting upon the sun, which were left unsolved by Jeffreys, is found to be incompatible with observations and the predictions of linear or quadratic friction theory, due to his failure to take into account the possible change of the moment of inertia of the earth with time in the derivation of the dynamical equations. Consideration of this factor leads to the conclusion that the earth must be contracting at a rate of 14.7 x 10 to the -11th/year, which can be accounted for only by the Ramsey theory, in which the terrestrial core is considered as a phase change rather than a change in chemical composition. Implications of this value for the rates of changes in day length and lunar distance are also indicated.

Lyttleton, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Use of nonlinear identification in robust attitude and attitude rate estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation/identification algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. The absence of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. In addition, attitude data is occasionally unavailable (for example, during sun occultation). As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is an increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The Minimum Model Error(MME)/Least Square Correlation(LSC) algorithm accurately identifies an improved model for SAMPEX to be used during periods of complete data loss or extreme noise. The model correction is determined by estimating only one orbit(the identification pass) just prior to the assumed data loss(the prediction pass). The MME estimator correctly predicted the states during the identification phase, but more importantly determines the necessary model correction trajectory, d(t). The LSC algorithm is then used to find this trajectory's functional form, H(x(t)). The results show significant improvement of the new corrected model's attitude estimates as compared to the original uncorrected model's estimates. The possible functional form of the correction term is limited at this point in the study to functions strictly of the estimated states. The results, however, strongly suggest that functions based on the relative position of the satellite may also be possible candidates for future consideration.

Mook, D. Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2004

Performance of Thermal Mass Flow Meters in a Variable Gravitational Environment

The performance of five thermal mass flow meters, MKS Instruments 179A and 258C, Unit Instruments UFM-8100, Sierra Instruments 830L, and Hastings Instruments HFM-200, were tested on the KC-135 Reduced Gravity Aircraft in orthogonal, coparallel, and counterparallel orientations relative to gravity. Data was taken throughout the parabolic trajectory where the g-level varied from 0.01 to 1.8 times normal gravity. Each meter was calibrated in normal gravity in the orthogonal position prior to flight followed by ground testing at seven different flow conditions to establish a baseline operation. During the tests, the actual flow rate was measured independently using choked-flow orifices. Gravitational acceleration and attitude had a unique effect on the performance of each meter. All meters operated within acceptable limits at all gravity levels in the calibrated orthogonal position. However, when operated in other orientations, the deviations from the reference flow became substantial for several of the flow meters. Data analysis indicated that the greatest source of error was the effect of orientation, followed by the gravity level. This work emphasized that when operating thermal flow meters in a variable gravity environment, it is critical to orient the meter in the same direction relative to gravity in which it was calibrated. Unfortunately, there was no test in normal gravity that could predict the performance of a meter in reduced gravity. When operating in reduced gravity, all meters indicated within 5 percent of the full scale reading at all flow conditions and orientations.

Brooker, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗