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At least 397 records · Page 22

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Short-term impacts of 2017 western North American wildfires on meteorology, the atmosphere’s energy budget, and premature mortality

Abstract Western North American fires have been increasing in magnitude and severity over the last few decades. The complex coupling of fires with the atmospheric energy budget and meteorology creates short-term feedbacks on regional weather altering the amount of pollution to which Americans are exposed. Using a combination of model simulations and observations, this study shows that the severe fires in the summer of 2017 increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations leading to a cooling of the air at the surface, reductions in sensible heat fluxes, and a lowering of the planetary boundary layer height over land. This combination of lower-boundary layer height and increased aerosol pollution from the fires reduces air quality. We estimate that from start of August to end of October 2017, ∼400 premature deaths occurred within the western US as a result of short-term exposure to elevated PM 2.5 from fire smoke. As North America confronts a warming climate with more fires the short-term climate and pollution impacts of increased fire activity should be assessed within policy aimed to minimize impacts of climate change on society.

Bernstein, Diana N. (ORCID:0000000308279336)↗

The Plasmoid Thruster Experiment (PTX)

This viewgraph presentation describes the overall Plasma Thruster Experiment (PTX), it's purpose and design, compact toroid propulsion, advantages and requirements of a plasmoid thruster, the projected efficiency, theta-pinch formation, a simulation of the PTX Coil/Bank Circuit using SPICE, the test firing of the PTX Capacitor Bank, PTX diagnostics, the excluded flux array, thruster simulations using MOQUI, and future work on the PTX.

Eskridge, R.↗

An Integrated Approach to Predicting Ash Deposition and Heat Transfer in Coal-Fired Boilers

The overall goal of this project is to develop via measurements and simulations an advanced online technology to predict, monitor and manage fireside ash deposition in a coal-fired boiler allowing for more efficient operations under a range of load conditions and fuel property variability. With this in place fuel sorting and blending can be done upstream and operations can be optimized to compensate for load and fuel properties. In support of this objective, three experimental campaigns were undertaken during the course of the project to measure ash deposition rates within the boiler at different fuel flow rates and its ash composition variability. Simulations of the experimental conditions representing actual geometry, operational scenarios in terms of air flow rates, coal flow rates as well as coal compositions, heating values, and particle size distributions were also carried out. Deposition rates were predicted using a unique particle kinetic energy and viscosity based ash deposition methodology whose validity was ascertained by comparing against deposition rate measurements for widely varying operating conditions and ash compositions in a lab-scale furnace. With a unique end-to-end combustion modeling methodology established and different simulation scenarios carried out, the results from our computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations in conjunction with the plant data summarized in this report were used to refine Microbeam Technology Incorporated’s MTI CSPI-CT Tool to predict and monitor fire-side ash deposition under a range of load conditions and fuel property variability in real time.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗

Validation and Simulation of Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test - 3 - Modeling and Evaluating the Effect of Rainbird Water Deluge Inclusion

The Ares I Scale Model Acoustics Test (ASMAT) is a series of live-fire tests of scaled rocket motors meant to simulate the conditions of the Ares I launch configuration. These tests have provided a well documented set of high fidelity measurements useful for validation including data taken over a range of test conditions and containing phenomena like Ignition Over-Pressure and water suppression of acoustics. Building on dry simulations of the ASMAT tests with the vehicle at 5 ft. elevation (100 ft. real vehicle elevation), wet simulations of the ASMAT test setup have been performed using the Loci/CHEM computational fluid dynamics software to explore the effect of rainbird water suppression inclusion on the launch platform deck. Two-phase water simulation has been performed using an energy and mass coupled lagrangian particle system module where liquid phase emissions are segregated into clouds of virtual particles and gas phase mass transfer is accomplished through simple Weber number controlled breakup and boiling models. Comparisons have been performed to the dry 5 ft. elevation cases, using configurations with and without launch mounts. These cases have been used to explore the interaction between rainbird spray patterns and launch mount geometry and evaluate the acoustic sound pressure level knockdown achieved through above-deck rainbird deluge inclusion. This comparison has been anchored with validation from live-fire test data which showed a reduction in rainbird effectiveness with the presence of a launch mount.

Strutzenberg, Louise L.↗

Plume Impingement Software Module for Real-Time Proximity Operations

Successfully executing proximity operations in space, such as docking or in-orbit servicing, requires sophisticated spacecraft design that accounts for induced environments. As a chaser vehicle’s attitude control thrusters fire, they create rarefied plumes that can impact the target vehicle, with the potential to overload components, exceed thermal limits, and spin the target vehicle out of control. High-fidelity simulations of the thruster plume impingement environment require the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, but DSMC is too computationally expensive to simulate proximity operations that involve thousands of thruster firings. For this analysis to be tractable, engineering models of the plume flowfield and impingement events are used to simulate these trajectories [1]. Currently, on-orbit plume impingement environments are modeled through an inefficient open-loop analysis cycle where the vehicle’s flight controller and plume impingement teams iterate on the trajectories until they pass the target vehicle’s plume requirements. As complex on-orbit missions evolve and become more frequent, lengthy design cycles will become operational bottlenecks. To address this gap, this work develops an advanced plume impingement module capable of operating at real-time scale that can be integrated with existing mission planning tools and onboard flight systems. The plume module leverages state-of-the-art plume simulation techniques [2] to deliver fast, physics-based impingement predictions in a software architecture that can be tailored to diverse proximity operations scenarios. A prototype of this plume impingement module is built to demonstrate the feasibility of real-time performance. This prototype completes plume impingement calculations in microseconds per target geometry mesh point. The software serves as a foundational capability for plume-aware trajectory design, operational risk assessment, and future autonomous decision-making systems.

Plume Impingement↗

Simulating Atomic Dark Matter in Milky Way Analogs

Dark sector theories naturally lead to multicomponent scenarios for dark matter where a subcomponent can dissipate energy through self-interactions, allowing it to efficiently cool inside galaxies. We present the first cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way analogs where the majority of dark matter is collisionless cold dark matter (CDM) but a subcomponent (6%) is strongly dissipative minimal atomic dark matter (ADM). The simulations, implemented in GIZMO and utilizing FIRE-2 galaxy formation physics to model the standard baryonic sector, demonstrate that the addition of even a small fraction of dissipative dark matter can significantly impact galactic evolution despite being consistent with current cosmological constraints. We show that ADM gas with roughly standard model–like masses and couplings can cool to form a rotating “dark disk” with angular momentum closely aligned with the visible stellar disk. The morphology of the disk depends sensitively on the parameters of the ADM model, which affect the cooling rates in the dark sector. The majority of the ADM gas gravitationally collapses into dark “clumps” (regions of black hole or mirror star formation), which form a prominent bulge and a rotating thick disk in the central galaxy. These clumps form early and quickly sink to the inner ∼kiloparsec of the galaxy, affecting the galaxy’s star formation history and present-day baryonic and CDM distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A presentation of base heating data obtained from the 25-O space shuttle model at high altitude

During development of the 25-O space shuttle model, several test firings were made in a vacuum chamber at simulated altitude conditions in order to verify satisfactory ignition and operation of the model in a high altitude environment. In conjunction with these firings, heating rate and pressure measurements were obtained at several locations in the orbiter base region on a piggy-back basis. Data obtained during these experiments are summarized, the 25-O space shuttle model is described.

Hendershot, K. C.↗

Failure Mode Analysis of V-Shaped Pyrotechnically Actuated Valves

Current V-shaped stainless steel pyrovalve initiators have rectified many of the deficiencies of the heritage Y-shaped aluminum design. However, a credible failure mode still exists for dual simultaneous initiator (NSI) firings in which low temperatures were detected at the booster cap and less consistent ignition was observed than when a single initiator was fired. In order to asses this issue, a numerical framework has been developed for predicting the flow through pyrotechnically actuated valves. This framework includes a fully coupled solution of the gas-phase equation with a non-equilibrium dispersed phase for solid particles as well as the capability to model conjugate gradient heat transfer to the booster cap. Through a hierarchy of increasingly complex simulations, a hypothesis for the failure mode of the nearly simultaneous dual NSI firings has been proven. The simulations indicate that the failure mode for simultaneous dual NSI firings may be caused by flow interactions between the flame channels. The shock waves from each initiator interact in the booster cavity resulting in a high pressure that prevents the gas and particulate velocity from rising in the booster cap region. This impedes the bulk of the particulate phase from impacting the booster cap and reduces the heat transfer to the booster cap since the particles do not impact it. Heat transfer calculations to the solid metal indicate that gas-phase convective heat transfer may not be adequate by itself and that energy transfer from the particulate phase may be crucial for the booster cap burn through.

Sachdev, Jai S.↗

The Evolution of On-Board Emergency Training for the International Space Station Crew

The crew of the International Space Station (ISS) receives extensive ground‐training in order to safely and effectively respond to any potential emergency event while on‐orbit, but few people realize that their training is not concluded when they launch into space. The evolution of the emergency On‐ Board Training events (OBTs) has recently moved from paper "scripts" to an intranet‐based software simulation that allows for the crew, as well as the flight control teams in Mission Control Centers across the world, to share in an improved and more realistic training event. This emergency OBT simulator ensures that the participants experience the training event as it unfolds, completely unaware of the type, location, or severity of the simulated emergency until the scenario begins. The crew interfaces with the simulation software via iPads that they keep with them as they translate through the ISS modules, receiving prompts and information as they proceed through the response. Personnel in the control centers bring up the simulation via an intranet browser at their console workstations, and can view additional telemetry signatures in simulated ground displays in order to assist the crew and communicate vital information to them as applicable. The Chief Training Officers and emergency instructors set the simulation in motion, choosing the type of emergency (rapid depressurization, fire, or toxic atmosphere) and specific initial conditions to emphasize the desired training objectives. Project development, testing, and implementation was a collaborative effort between ISS emergency instructors, Chief Training Officers, Flight Directors, and the Crew Office using commercial off the shelf (COTS) hardware along with simulation software created in‐house. Due to the success of the Emergency OBT simulator, the already‐developed software has been leveraged and repurposed to develop a new emulator used during fire response ground‐training to deliver data that the crew receives from the handheld Compound Specific Analyzer for Combustion Products (CSA‐CP). This CSA‐CP emulator makes use of a portion of codebase from the Emergency OBT simulator dealing with atmospheric contamination during fire scenarios, and feeds various data signatures to crew via an iPod Touch with a flight‐like CSA‐CP display. These innovative simulations, which make use of COTS hardware with custom in‐house software, have yielded drastic improvements to emergency training effectiveness and risk reduction for ISS crew and flight control teams during on‐orbit and ground training events.

LaBuff, Skyler↗

The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Oxy-Combustion Modeling for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles

We report that supercritical CO 2 power cycles for fossil energy power generation will likely employ oxy-combustion at very high pressures, possibly exceeding 300 bar. At these high pressures, a direct fired oxy-combustor is more likely to behave like a rocket engine than any type of conventional gas turbine combustor. Issues such as injector design, wall heat transfer, and combustion dynamics may play a challenging role in combustor design. Computational fluid dynamics modeling will not only be useful, but may be a necessity in the combustor design process. To accurately model turbulent reacting flows, combustion submodels appropriate for the conditions of interest as defined by the turbulent time and length scales as well as chemical kinetic time scales are necessary. Here, this paper presents a comparison of various turbulence–chemistry interaction (TCI) modeling approaches on a canonical, single injector, direct-fired sCO 2 combustor. Large eddy simulation is used to model the turbulent combustion process with varying levels of injector oxygen concentration while comparing the effect of the combustion submodel on CO emissions and flame shape. While experimental data are not yet available to validate the simulations, the sensitivity of CO production and flame shape can be studied as a function of combustion modeling approach and oxygen concentration in an effort to better understand how to approach combustion modeling at these unique conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computational Pollutant Environment Assessment from Propulsion-System Testing

An asymptotic plume growth method based on a time-accurate three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics formulation has been developed to assess the exhaust-plume pollutant environment from a simulated RD-170 engine hot-fire test on the F1 Test Stand at Marshall Space Flight Center. Researchers have long known that rocket-engine hot firing has the potential for forming thermal nitric oxides, as well as producing carbon monoxide when hydrocarbon fuels are used. Because of the complex physics involved, most attempts to predict the pollutant emissions from ground-based engine testing have used simplified methods, which may grossly underpredict and/or overpredict the pollutant formations in a test environment. The objective of this work has been to develop a computational fluid dynamics-based methodology that replicates the underlying test-stand flow physics to accurately and efficiently assess pollutant emissions from ground-based rocket-engine testing. A nominal RD-170 engine hot-fire test was computed, and pertinent test-stand flow physics was captured. The predicted total emission rates compared reasonably well with those of the existing hydrocarbon engine hot-firing test data.

Wang, Ten-See↗

Plume-Free Stream Interaction Heating Effects During Orion Crew Module Reentry

During reentry of the Orion Crew Module (CM), vehicle attitude control will be performed by firing reaction control system (RCS) thrusters. Simulation of RCS plumes and their interaction with the oncoming flow has been difficult for the analysis community due to the large scarf angles of the RCS thrusters and the unsteady nature of the Orion capsule backshell environments. The model for the aerothermal database has thus relied on wind tunnel test data to capture the heating effects of thruster plume interactions with the freestream. These data are only valid for the continuum flow regime of the reentry trajectory. A Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) analysis was performed to study the vehicle heating effects that result from the RCS thruster plume interaction with the oncoming freestream flow at high altitudes during Orion CM reentry. The study was performed with the DSMC Analysis Code (DAC). The inflow boundary conditions for the jets were obtained from Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions. Simulations were performed for the roll, yaw, pitch-up and pitch-down jets at altitudes of 105 km, 125 km and 160 km as well as vacuum conditions. For comparison purposes (see Figure 1), the freestream conditions were based on previous DAC simulations performed without active RCS to populate the aerodynamic database for the Orion CM. Other inputs to the analysis included a constant Orbital reentry velocity of 7.5 km/s and angle of attack of 160 degrees. The results of the study showed that the interaction effects decrease quickly with increasing altitude. Also, jets with highly scarfed nozzles cause more severe heating compared to the nozzles with lower scarf angles. The difficulty of performing these simulations was based on the maximum number density and the ratio of number densities between the freestream and the plume for each simulation. The lowest altitude solutions required a substantial amount of computational resources (up to 1800 processors) to simulate approximately 2 billion molecules for the refined (adapted) solutions.

Marichalar, J.↗

Vehicle-Level Oxygen/Methane Propulsion System Hotfire Testing at Thermal Vacuum Conditions

A prototype integrated liquid oxygen/liquid methane propulsion system was hot-fire tested at a variety of simulated altitude and thermal conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Center Plum Brook Station In-Space Propulsion Thermal Vacuum Chamber (formerly B2). This test campaign served two purposes: 1) Characterize the performance of the Plum Brook facility in vacuum accumulator mode and 2) Collect the unique data set of an integrated LOX/Methane propulsion system operating in high altitude and thermal vacuum environments (a first). Data from this propulsion system prototype could inform the design of future spacecraft in-space propulsion systems, including landers. The test vehicle for this campaign was the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), which was constructed for this project using assets from the former Morpheus Project rebuilt and outfitted with additional new hardware. The ICPTA utilizes one 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf and two 7 lbf reaction control engines mounted in two pods, four 48-inch propellant tanks (two each for liquid oxygen and liquid methane), and a cold helium system for propellant tank pressurization. Several hundred sensors on the ICPTA and many more in the test cell collected data to characterize the operation of the vehicle and facility. Multiple notable experiments were performed during this test campaign, many for the first time, including pressure-fed cryogenic reaction control system characterization over a wide range of conditions, coil-on-plug ignition system demonstration at the vehicle level, integrated main engine/RCS operation, and a non-intrusive propellant mass gauging system. The test data includes water-hammer and thermal heat leak data critical to validating models for use in future vehicle design activities. This successful test campaign demonstrated the performance of the updated Plum Brook In-Space Propulsion thermal vacuum chamber and incrementally advanced the state of LOX/Methane propulsion technology through numerous system-level and subsystem experiments.

Morehead, Robert L.↗