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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Simulations of Water Flow in Relation to a Steady Criticality in an Unsaturated Alluvial Repository

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is examining the conditions under which a criticality event could be ruled out for large packages placed in an unsaturated alluvial repository. This work specifically examines the water level in a stylized waste package that is assumed (1) to fail on the top, and (2) to empty as water is driven away—not by boiling—but by fluid flow phenomena driven by thermal gradients. This analysis uses the PFLOTRAN code package. Specifically, this year’s work includes examination of the heat rate at which water is driven away for various percolation rates using the same assumptions listed in the 2022 annual report. The STANDARDS (formerly UNF-ST&DARDS) package has predicted dual-purpose canister (DPC) neutron multiplication factors (k-effectives) ranging above 1.1 (unitless) with failed components. The DPC designs were not created with the intent to use for disposal purposes. Emplacing such packages may be worth consideration if it can be shown that criticality is either extremely unlikely or of very low consequence to the repository’s safety case. This work aims to help establish hydrologic boundary conditions for a highly hypothetical, highly stylized subsurface criticality event. The approach to critical is assumed to be slow, producing steady heating rates under a few kilowatts. For a DPC containing capillary media, the simulated power required for dry-out was proportional to the percolation rate but was unaffected by the size of a large breech on top of the DPC. Results for single cases with no capillary media in the DPC suggest that higher infiltration rates may be required in those cases to cause flooding. Bounding mechanisms and assumptions must be identified and characterized further by performing additional perturbations to various input parameters to demonstrate robustness of the results. This might be accomplished by examining responses to power pulses to determine the system transfer function required to enable a reduced order feedback model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1982

Hydrology team

General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

Ragan, R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Numerical Analysis of The Pool Boiling Process in Flooded Evaporators Using Different Refrigerants

The pool boiling process can be observed in several energy conversion processes including commercial and industrial refrigeration, industrial air-cooling operations, and power generation. The process becomes more involved when pool boiling in a tube bundle is considered. In the current study, a numerical model is developed to predict the key performance parameters of a flooded evaporator while considering a range of working fluids. A kettle reboiler configuration was considered, and a performance model was developed to account for boiling on individual tubes, merging of vapor bubbles, and movement under gravity. A volume of fluid (VOF) model was used to deal with the different phases in the simulation. Various fluids were considered in this study including HFE-7000, HFE-7300, and water. The trajectories of the bubbles were tracked, and the resulting information has been summarized in physical measurable quantities.

Zhang, Mingkan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (AgMAR) and Stratigraphic Heterogeneities on Nitrate Reduction in the Deep Subsurface

This data package contains input files for TOUGHREACT for a modeling study examining the effects of managed aquifer recharge on agricultural lands on nitrate cycling and transport in the Central Valley of CA near Modesto. The files contain all the geochemical species, reactions, and hydrological parameters for the model. The files are text files used for the TOUGH family of code created by LBNL. To use the files a license is required. https://tough.lbl.gov/licensing-download/toughreact-licensing-download/Accompanying Paper Abstract: Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR) is a proposed management strategy whereby surface water flows are used to intentionally flood croplands with the purpose of recharging underlying aquifers. However, legacy nitrate (NO3-) contamination in agriculturally-intensive regions poses a threat to groundwater resources under AgMAR. To address these concerns, we use a reactive transport modeling framework to better understand the effects of AgMAR management strategies (i.e., by varying the frequency, duration between flooding events, and amount of water) on N leaching to groundwater under different stratigraphic configurations and antecedent moisture conditions. In particular, we examine the potential of denitrification and nitrogen retention in deep vadose zone sediments (~15 m) using variable AgMAR application rates on two-dimensional representations of differently textured soils, soils with discontinuous bands/channels, and soils with preferential flow paths characteristic of typical agricultural field sites. Our results indicate that finer textured sediments, such as silt loams, alone or embedded within high flow regions, are important reducing zones providing conditions needed for denitrification. Simulation results further suggest that applying water all-at-once rather than in increments for a fixed volume of recharge transports higher concentrations of NO3- deeper into the profile, which has the potential to exacerbate groundwater quality. This transport into deeper depths can be aggravated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, applying water all-at-once also increases denitrification within the vadose zone by promoting anoxic conditions. We conclude that AgMAR management strategies can be designed to enhance denitrification in the subsurface and reduce N leaching to groundwater, while specifically accounting for lithologic heterogeneity, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and depth to the water table. Our findings are potentially relevant to other systems that experience flooding inundation such as riparian corridors, floodplains, wetlands, and other managed landscapes like dedicated recharge basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenge Solutions for a Significant Water Cut Reduction History Match on Heavy Oil Polymer EOR

Milne Point Field is conducting the first-ever active polymer flood pilot program designed to enhance oil recovery (EOR) of heavy oils on the Alaska North Slope (ANS). The experimental field program consists of two pairs of horizontal injection and production wells deployed in an isolated fault block in the Schrader Bluff reservoir. The EOR method combines polymer flooding and low salinity water flooding to improve recovery. Prior average water cut reduction in polymer EOR fields ordinarily ranges between 10% to 15% for most light oil and heavy oil reservoirs. When comparing other field applications, the long-lasting (24 months) and much lower water cut poses a challenge for numerical history matching when applying typical simulation methods. This abstract discusses two practical new approaches used for history matching of the long-lasting ultralow water cut. These new applications include 1) multiple relative permeability curves with J-function incorporation with low endpoints of relative permeability of water (Krw). This approach integrated the permeability differential adjustment in the geometries of horizontal and vertical directions based on geological review. 2) A specific permeability channel strips along with the horizontal or vertical planar assumption. The current history matching results indicate success in achieving an excellent agreement with the field observed low water-cut.

Namie, S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Linear and nonlinear instability in vertical counter-current laminar gas-liquid flows

We consider the genesis and dynamics of interfacial instability in vertical gas-liquid flows, using as a model the two-dimensional channel flow of a thin falling film sheared by counter-current gas. The methodology is linear stability theory (Orr-Sommerfeld analysis) together with direct numerical simulation of the two-phase flow in the case of nonlinear disturbances. We investigate the influence of two main flow parameters on the interfacial dynamics, namely the film thickness and pressure drop applied to drive the gas stream. To make contact with existing studies in the literature, the effect of various density contrasts is also examined. Energy budget analyses based on the Orr-Sommerfeld theory reveal various coexisting unstable modes (interfacial, shear, internal) in the case of high density contrasts, which results in mode coalescence and mode competition, but only one dynamically relevant unstable interfacial mode for low density contrast. A study of absolute and convective instability for low density contrast shows that the system is absolutely unstable for all but two narrow regions of the investigated parameter space. Direct numerical simulations of the same system (low density contrast) show that linear theory holds up remarkably well upon the onset of large-amplitude waves as well as the existence of weakly nonlinear waves. For high density contrasts, corresponding more closely to an air-water-type system, linear stability theory is also successful at determining the most-dominant features in the interfacial wave dynamics at early-to-intermediate times. Nevertheless, the short waves selected by the linear theory undergo secondary instability and the wave train is no longer regular but rather exhibits chaotic motion. The same linear stability theory predicts when the direction of travel of the waves changes — from downwards to upwards. We outline the practical implications of this change in terms of loading and flooding. The change in direction of the wave propagation is represented graphically in terms of a flow map based on the liquid and gas flow rates and the prediction carries over to the nonlinear regime with only a small deviation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermal traction contact performance evaluation under fully flooded and starved conditions

Ultra high speed traction tests were performed on two traction fluids commonly employed. Traction data on these fluids is required for purposes of traction drive design optimization techniques. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disc traction test machine was employed. This machine was modified to accommodate the range of test variables. All the data reported was obtained under conditions of side slip, a technique whereby only low power levels are required to simulate real traction drive contacts. Theoretical traction predictions were performed for a representative number of curves that showed the influence of rolling velocity, of contact pressure and of aspect ratio. To establish the accuracy of the thermal model the predictions were performed ith increasing levels of independence of experimentally determined parameters. In the final resulting prediction only two non linear thermal parameters were used for the prediction of 15 different traction curves covering the entire range of variables as used in the investigation, with the exception of the influence of asperity traction. Comparison of these theoretical curves and corresponding experimental traces show very good agreement.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Big Wheel Farm: Farmland Scour Reduction

Flood irrigation benefits from low infrastructure costs and maintenance but the scour near the weirs can cause channeling of the flow preventing the water from evenly dispersing across the field. Using flow obstructions in front of the weir could reduce be a low cost solution to reduce the scour. The mitigation strategy was to virtually simulate the effects of various geometric changes to the morphology (e.g. holes and bumps) in front of the weir as a means to diffuse the high intensity flow coming from the gate. After running a parametric study for the dimensions of the shapes that included a Gaussian, semi-circle, and rectangle; a Gaussian-hole in front of the gates showed the most promise to reduce farm field shear-stresses with the added benefit of being easy to construct and implement in practice. Further the simulations showed that the closer the Gaussian-hole could be placed to the gate the sooner the high shear stress could be reduced. To realize the most benefit from this mitigation strategy, it was determined that the maximum depth of the Gaussian-hole should be 0.5 m. The width of the hole in the flow direction and the length of the Gaussian-hole normal to the flow should be 0.5 m and 3 m respectively as measured by the full width at half maximum.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Extensive Global Wetland Loss Over the Past Three Centuries

Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km 2 (confidence interval 2.9–3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16–23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration.

Etienne Fluet-Chouinard↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mare basin filling on the moon - Laboratory simulations

Laboratory simulations of lavas filling a stylized lunar multi-ringed basin demonstrate several relationships between the morphology of the emplaced lavas and various eruption conditions. The rate of effusion is the primary control on the gross shape of the accumulated lavas, with relatively low rates (e.g., Hawaiian style) leading to shield volcanoes and high rates (e.g., flood eruptions) producing flat, ponded lavas. Pre-flow topography can have a significant effect on the general form of individual flows and the position of flow features such as lava channels. Rootless vents develop in many parts of the flow, including areas apparently related to the position of basin rings, giving the false appearance of aligned true vent systems.

Greeley, R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a CO 2 Chemical Sensor for Downhole CO 2 Monitoring in Carbon Sequestration

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been proposed as a viable means for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The means for geological sequestration of CO 2 is injection of supercritical CO 2 underground, which requires the CO 2 to remain either supercritical, or in solution in the water/brine present in the underground formation. However, there are aspects of geologic sequestration that need further study, particularly in regards to safety. To date, none of the geologic sequestration locations have been tested for storage integrity under the changing stress conditions that apply to the sequestration of very large amounts of CO 2 . Establishing environmental safety and addressing public concerns require widespread monitoring of the process in the deep subsurface. In addition, studies of subsurface carbon sequestration such as flow simulations, models of underground reactions and transports require a comprehensive monitoring process to accurately characterize and understand the storage process. Real-time information about underground CO 2 movement and concentration change is highly helpful for: (1) better understanding the uncertainties present in CO 2 geologic storage; (2) improvement of simulation models; and (3) evaluation of the feasibility of geologic CO 2 storage. Current methods to monitor underground CO 2 storage include seismic, geoelectric, isotope and tracer methods, and fluid sampling analysis. However, these methods commonly resulted low resolution, high cost, and the inability to monitor continuously over the long time scales of the CO 2 storage process. A preferred way of monitoring in-situ underground CO 2 migration is to continuous measure CO 2 concentration change in brine during the carbon storage process. An approach to obtain the real time information on CO 2 concentration change in formation solution is highly demanded in carbon storage to understand the CO 2 migration subsurface and to answer the public safety problem. The objective of the study is to develop a downhole CO 2 sensor that can in-situ, continuously monitor CO 2 concentration change in deep saline. The sensor is a Severinghaus-type CO 2 sensor with small size, which renders it can be embedded in monitoring well casing or integrated with pressure/temperature transducers, enabling the development of “smart” wells. The studies included: (1) prepare and characterize metal-oxide electrodes. Test the electrodes response to pH change. Investigate different ions and brine concentration effects on the electrode’s performance. Study the stability of the electrode in brine solution; (2) fabricate a downhole CO 2 sensor with the metal-oxide electrodes prepared in the laboratory. Test the performance of the CO 2 sensor in brine solutions. Study high pressure effects on the performance of the sensor; (3) design and conduct CO 2 /brine coreflooding experiments with the CO2 sensor. Monitor CO 2 movement along the core and test the performance of the sensor in coreflooding tests. Develop a data acquisition system that can digitize the sensor’s output voltage. Our completed research has resulted in deep understanding of downhole CO 2 sensor development and CO 2 monitoring in CO 2 storage process. The developed downhole CO 2 sensor included a metal-oxide electrode, a gas-permeable membrane, a porous steel cup, and a bicarbonate-based internal electrolyte solution. Iridium oxide-based electrode was prepared and used for preparation the CO 2 sensor. The prepared iridium oxide-based electrode displayed a linearly response to pH change. Different factors such as different ions and ions concentration, temperature, and pressure effects on the electrode performance on pH response were investigated. The results indicated that the electrode exhibited a good performance even in high salt concentration of produced water. To improve the electrode performance under high pressure, IrO 2 nanoparticles with the particle size in the range of 1-2 nm were prepared and electrodeposited on stainless steel substrate by cyclic voltammetry. It was observed that the thin film of iridium oxide was formed on the substrate surface and such iridium oxide-based electrode displayed excellent performance under high pressure for longer term. A downhole CO 2 sensor with the iridium oxide-based electrode was prepared. The working principle of the CO 2 sensor is based on the measurement of the pH change of the internal electrolyte solution caused by the hydrolysis of CO 2 and then determination of the CO 2 concentration in water. The prepared downhole CO 2 sensor had the size of diameter of 0.7 in. and length of 1.5 in. The sensor was tested under the pressures of 500 psi, 2,000 psi, and 3,000 psi. A linear correlation was observed between the sensor potential change and dissolved CO 2 concentration in water. The response time of the CO 2 sensor was in the range of 60-100 minutes. Further tests indicated that the CO 2 sensor exhibited good reproducibility under high pressure. A CO 2 /brine coreflooding system was constructed to simulate the real-world CO 2 storage process. The prepared downhole CO 2 sensor was loaded in the system to monitor CO 2 movement during CO 2 /brine coreflooding test. The results indicated that the sensor could detect CO 2 movement in the tests. Further studies showed that the sensor could be recovered by brine flooding after CO 2 /brine flushed the core. The results of the coreflooding tests demonstrated that the sensor had potential application for CO 2 monitoring in carbon sequestration. A data acquisition system for the downhoe CO 2 sensor was developed and coded. The system converted the sensor output signal into digital data and transported the data from downhole to wellhead surface. The data acquisition system was tested and evaluated in the laboratory with the prepared sensor for data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of uncertainty in CO 2 reservoir models: A sensitivity analysis of relative permeability parameter values

Numerical reservoir models of CO 2 injection in saline formations rely on parameterization of laboratory-measured pore-scale processes. Here, we have performed a parameter sensitivity study and Monte Carlo simulations to determine the normalized change in total CO 2 injected using the finite element heat and mass-transfer code (FEHM) numerical reservoir simulator. Experimentally measured relative permeability parameter values were used to generate distribution functions for parameter sampling. The parameter sensitivity study analyzed five different levels for each of the relative permeability model parameters. All but one of the parameters changed the CO 2 injectivity by <10%, less than the geostatistical uncertainty that applies to all large subsurface systems due to natural geophysical variability and inherently small sample sizes. The exception was the end-point CO 2 relative permeability, k$0\atop{r}$ CO2 , the maximum attainable effective CO 2 permeability during CO 2 invasion, which changed CO2 injectivity by as much as 80%. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation using 1000 realizations of relative permeability parameters showed no relationship between CO 2 injectivity and any of the parameters but k$0\atop{r}$ CO2 , which had a very strong (R 2 = 0.9685) power law relationship with total CO 2 injected. Model sensitivity to k$0\atop{r}$ CO2 points to the importance of accurate core flood and wettability measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Air Capture Using Aqueous Amino Acid Solvents in a Crossflow Absorber

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most abundant of all greenhouse gases (GHGs). CO 2 levels in the atmosphere are 50% higher than in the preindustrial era, trapping heat. CO 2 removal from the atmosphere by direct air capture (DAC) is needed to achieve the internationally agreed global temperature goals. The most common CO 2 capture technology is absorption by aminebased solvents in packed columns. Amino acid solutions have recently gained attention due to their advantages over traditional amine solvents. To be implemented effectively, DAC industrial processes need to handle large airflow rates in separation absorbers. The large air and solvent flow rates preclude the use of countercurrent columns due to high-pressure drops and the occurrence of flooding. Crossflow air−liquid absorbers are used to handle large air and liquid volumes due to their lower-pressure drop. The objective of this work is to study the influence of crossflow absorber geometric parameters and operating conditions on product formation and process efficiency. An already derived theoretical model for countercurrent absorbers has been modified to simulate the operation of a crossflow DAC absorber. The predictive model was implemented into a computer code that was used to study the efficiency of the processes as geometric equipment dimensions and operating parameters vary. Practical suggestions are made to design more efficient DAC processes.

Absorption↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗