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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
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NASA NTRS1983

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 2: Technical report

The potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer premises voice, data and video services through the year 2000 were forecast, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Computer premises services systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressabble by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for; 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Kratochvil, D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 3: Appendices

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution, potential CPS (customers premises services) user classes, net long haul forecasts, CPS cost analysis, overall satellite forecast, CPS satellite market, Ka-band CPS satellite forecast, nationwide traffic distribution model, and intra-urban topology are discussed.

Kratochvil, D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

Larsen, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forecast Impact of Components of the FGGE Observing System

Experiments have been conducted to assess the summer and winter forecast impact of the FGGE system, and of its main observing components: temperature sounding data derived from the TIROS-N polar orbiting satellite, cloud track winds determined from geostationary satellite observations and drifting buoy data which were collected by satellite during FGGE. The Analysis/Forecast System used has a number of improvements upon the system utilized by Halen et al. (1982) for the FGGE Special Observing Period-1 (SOP-1). Several modifications were made in the analysis scheme, the most important being the interpolation of the analysis minus 6 h forecast deviations rather than of the analyzed fields themselves. The forecast model is still the 4 deg lat, 5 deg lon and 9 vertical levels GLAS Fourth Order GCM with several minor corrections implemented in the physics and numerics. The improved vertical interpolation in the analysis resulted in better assimilation of rawinsonde data, which has more vertical structure than satellite data. As a result, there was an improvement of the forecasts derived from conventional data only, and, consequently, a small reduction of the positive impact of satellite data from that obtained by Halem et al. (1982).

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Satellite provided customer promises services, a forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 4: Sensitivity analysis

The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.

Kratochvil, D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Forecast Impact Simulation Studies

A series of simulation experiments is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. For these studies an advanced analysis/forecast simulation system was developed which provides for a more realistic assessment of the impact of proposed observing systems than was possible in earlier studies. This system consists of four elements: (1) An atmospheric model integration to provide a complete record of the true state of the atmosphere (called nature); (2) a conventional data assimilation cycle that is used as the control experiment; (3) a satellite data assimilation that differs from the control in also including fabricated satellite data incorporated in the forecast-analysis cycle; and (4) forecasts produced from both control and satellite initial conditions. Comparison of these forecasts with nature provides an assessment of the impact of satellite data.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

Kidder, S. Q.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Forbes, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Advective forecasts of VAS imagery for use in anticipating convective destabilization

Wind field forecasts, based on data from the Visible Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument on board the most recent GOES satellite, are described. The forecasts were used to generate a series of water vapor images for the Central U.S. according to an isentropic prediction scheme. The ability of VAS imagery to detect regions of mesoscale convective instability was contrasted with data from a 9-12 hr advective forecast and the results are discussed. It is shown that the VAS imagery was free from masking by convective outflows and lends itself to repeated applications for updating throughout the day. The incorporation of surface data into the VAS forecast is recommended in order to identify areas of persistent moisture convergence. Some examples of the VAS imagery are provided.

Petersen, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Synoptic impacts of NOAA 6/Tiros N data on numerical circulation forecasts

Profiles of retrieved satellite observed temperatures provided to the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) by the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service were used to enhance the specification of atmospheric conditions during three winter periods. Introduction of the satellite data was via three alternative schemes, and the enhanced specifications were used to initialize 48-hour numerical forecasts with the IMS five-layer primitive equation model; control forecasts were run in parallel from initial conditions without the satellite data. The study selects one forecast from each period for which discernible impacts on forecast synoptic fields can be attributed to the different initializations. The first two case studies examine the results of only one assimilation scheme and the third relates to all three schemes. Verification of the prognostics show the positive impact of including satellite temperatures in the initialization, but there were also examples of negative impact.

Druyan, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center: A real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical model

The operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Sensitivity of mesoscale-model forecast skill to some initial-data characteristics, data density, data position, analysis procedure and measurement error

The effects of horizontal and vertical data resolution, data density, data location, different objective analysis algorithms, and measurement error on mesoscale-forecast accuracy are studied with observing-system simulation experiments. Domain-averaged errors are shown to generally decrease with time. It is found that the vertical distribution of error growth depends on the initial vertical distribution of the error itself. Larger gravity-inertia wave noise is produced in forecasts with coarser vertical data resolution. The use of a low vertical resolution observing system with three data levels leads to more forecast errors than moderate and high vertical resolution observing systems with 8 and 14 data levels. Also, with poor vertical resolution in soundings, the initial and forecast errors are not affected by the horizontal data resolution.

Warner, Thomas T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Assessment and forecasting of lightning potential and its effect on launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and John F. Kennedy Space Center

Lightning plays a pivotal role in the operation decision process for space and ballistic launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Lightning forecasts are the responsibility of Detachment 11, 4th Weather Wing's Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility. These forecasts are important to daily ground processing as well as launch countdown decisions. The methodology and equipment used to forecast lightning are discussed. Impact on a recent mission is summarized.

Weems, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Forecasting atmospheric angular momentum and length-of-day using operational meteorological models

Forecasts of zonal wind fields produced by the medium-range forecast model of the U.S. National Meteorological Center are used to create predictions of the atmosphere's angular momentum at lead times of 1-10 days. The skill of these forecasts, which are of interest to those concerned with monitoring changes in the length-of-day for navigational purposes, is assessed, and the regions in the atmosphere that contribute most importantly to forecast errors are identified.

Rosen, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamically stratified Monte Carlo forecasting

A new method for performing Monte Carlo forecasts is introduced. The method, called dynamic stratification, selects initial perturbations based on a stratification of the error distribution. A simple implementation is presented in which the error distribution used for the stratification is estimated from a linear model derived from a large ensemble of 12-h forecasts with the full dynamic model. The stratification thus obtained is used to choose a small subsample of initial states with which to perform the dynamical Monte Carlo forecasts. Several test cases are studied using a simple two-level general circulation model with uncertain initial conditions. It is found that the method provides substantial reductions in the sampling error of the forecast mean and variance when compared to the more traditional approach of choosing the initial perturbations at random. The degree of improvement, however, is sensitive to the nature of the initial error distribution and to the base state. In practice the method may be viable only if the computational burden involved in obtaining an adequate estimate of the error distribution is shared with the data-assimilation procedure.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1985

Use of ground-based wind profiles in mesoscale forecasting

A brief review is presented of recent uses of ground-based wind profile data in mesoscale forecasting. Some of the applications are in real time, and some are after the fact. Not all of the work mentioned here has been published yet, but references are given wherever possible. As Gage and Balsley (1978) point out, sensitive Doppler radars have been used to examine tropospheric wind profiles since the 1970's. It was not until the early 1980's, however, that the potential contribution of these instruments to operational forecasting and numerical weather prediction became apparent. Profiler winds and radiosonde winds compare favorably, usually within a few m/s in speed and 10 degrees in direction (see Hogg et al., 1983), but the obvious advantage of the profiler is its frequent (hourly or more often) sampling of the same volume. The rawinsonde balloon is launched only twice a day and drifts with the wind. In this paper, I will: (1) mention two operational uses of data from a wind profiling system developed jointly by the Wave Propagation and Aeronomy Laboratories of NOAA; (2) describe a number of displays of these same data on a workstation for mesoscale forecasting developed by the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS); and (3) explain some interesting diagnostic calculations performed by meteorologists of the Wave Propagation Laboratory.

Schlatter, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Forecast model applications of retrieved three dimensional liquid water fields

Forecasts are made for tropical storm Emily using heating rates derived from the SSM/I physical retrievals described in chapters 2 and 3. Average values of the latent heating rates from the convective and stratiform cloud simulations, used in the physical retrieval, are obtained for individual 1.1 km thick vertical layers. Then, the layer-mean latent heating rates are regressed against the slant path-integrated liquid and ice precipitation water contents to determine the best fit two parameter regression coefficients for each layer. The regression formulae and retrieved precipitation water contents are utilized to infer the vertical distribution of heating rates for forecast model applications. In the forecast model, diabatic temperature contributions are calculated and used in a diabatic initialization, or in a diabatic initialization combined with a diabatic forcing procedure. Our forecasts show that the time needed to spin-up precipitation processes in tropical storm Emily is greatly accelerated through the application of the data.

Raymond, William H.↗