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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Scale-invariant Cosmology and CMB Temperatures as a Function of Redshifts

Cosmological models assuming the scale invariance of the macroscopic empty space show an accelerated expansion, without calling for some unknown particles. Several comparisons between models and observations (tests on distances, m−z diagram, Ω{sub Λ} versus Ω{sub m} plot, age versus H {sub 0}, H(z) versus z, transition braking-acceleration) have indicated an impressive agreement. We pursue the tests with the CMB temperatures T{sub CMB} as a function of redshifts z. CO molecules in DLA systems provide the most accurate excitation temperatures T{sub exc} up to z≈2.7. Such data need corrections for local effects like particle collisions, optical depths, UV radiation, etc., We estimate these corrections as a function of the (CO/H{sub 2}) ratios from far-UV observations of CO molecules in the Galaxy. The results show that it is not sufficient to apply theoretical collisional corrections to get the proper values of T{sub CMB} versus z. Thus, the agreement often found with the standard model may be questioned. The T{sub CMB}(z) relation needs further careful attention and the same for the scale-invariant cosmology in view of its positive tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Calculating Probability Densities with Homotopy and Applications to Particle Filters

In this work, we explore a homotopy sampling procedure and its generalization, loosely based on importance sampling, known as annealed importance sampling. The procedure makes use of a known probability distribution to find, via homotopy, the unknown normalization of a target distribution, as well as samples of the target distribution. We propose a reformulation of the method that leads to a rejection sampling alternative. Estimates of the error as a function of homotopy stages and sample averages are derived for the algorithmic version of the method. These estimates are useful in making computational efficiency decisions on how the calculation should proceed, given a computer architecture. Consideration is given to how the procedure can be adapted to Bayesian stationary and nonstationary estimation problems. The connection between homotopy sampling and thermodynamic integration is made. Emphasis is placed on the non-stationary problems, and in particular, on a sequential estimation technique known as particle filtering. It is shown that a modification of the particle filter framework to include the homotopy process can improve the computational robustness of particle filters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical evaluation of photosensitive tracers as a strategy for separating surface and subsurface transient storage in streams

For this work, we numerically evaluated photosensitive tracers as a potential strategy for separating the effects of surface and hyporheic storage zones (SSZs and HSZs, respectively) on stream corridor transport. Correctly separating HSZ and SSZ effects is critical to estimating the hydro-biogeochemical function of a stream because HSZs and SSZs expose solutes to significantly different biogeochemical conditions, like sunlight exposure, microbial processes, and oxygen availability. Our numerical experiments used a multiscale river-corridor transport model implemented in the ATS code, which accommodates multiple storage zones with distinct travel time distributions and biogeochemical reactions. For parameter inferences, we used Bayesian inverse modeling. We found that breakthrough curves for photo-decaying tracers from day and night injection can delineate surface and hyporheic transient storage contributions, but only when interpreted jointly through a two-storage zone model. Numerical experiments that used only daytime injection or interpreted breakthrough curves with a single storage zone model yielded good fit to breakthrough curves, but parameter estimates were biased and controlling processes misattributed, examples of good model fits for the wrong reasons. Using those biased parameter estimates in reactive transport simulations resulted in significantly different projections of denitrification, which underscores the potential for stream function to be mischaracterized if tracer tests are interpreted through an inappropriately simplified model for transient storage. More generally, this study highlights the role of modeling in evaluating the experimental design and identifying the potential of system mischaracterization and its implications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primordial black hole mass functions as a probe of cosmic origin

Here, we discuss a novel window to probe the origin of our universe via the mass functions of primordial black holes (PBHs). The mass functions of PBHs are simply estimated using the conventional Press-Schechter formalism for two paradigms of cosmic origin, including inflationary ΛCDM and bounce cosmology. The standard inflationary ΛCDM model cannot generate an appreciable number of massive PBHs; however, non-trivial inflation models with blue-tilted power spectra at small scales and matter bounce cosmology provide formation mechanisms for heavy PBHs, which in turn, may seed the observed supermassive black holes (SMBHs). By fitting the SMBH mass functions at high redshift (z ~ 6) derived from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Canada-France High-z Quasar Survey (CFHQS) quasars, for two paradigms of cosmic origin, we derive constraints on the PBH density fraction $f$ PBH at z ~ 6 and the characteristic mass M $\ast$ , with the prior assumption that all SMBHs stem from PBHs. We demonstrate that this newly proposed procedure, relying on astronomical measurements that utilize deep-field surveys of SMBHs at high redshift, can be used to constrain models of cosmic origin. Additionally, although not the main focus of this paper, we evolve the mass function from z ~ 6 to z ~ 0 through an assumption of 3 × 10 8 -year Eddington’s accretion, and give a rough estimation of $f$ PBH at z ~ 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The total microbiome functions in bacteria and fungi

Unveiling the relationship between phylogeny and function of the microbiome is crucial to determine its contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, while there is a considerable amount of information on microbial phylogenetic diversity, our understanding of its relationship to functional diversity is still scarce. Here we predicted the total microbiome functions of bacteria and fungi on Earth using the total known functions from level 3 of KEGG Orthology by modelling the increase of functions with increasing diversity of bacteria or fungi. For bacteria and fungi, the unsaturated model described the data significantly better (for both P?<2.2e-16), suggesting the presence of two types of functions. Widespread functions ubiquitous in every living organism that make up two thirds of our current knowledge of microbiome functions are separated from rare functions from specialised enzymes present in only a few species. Given previous estimates on species richness, we predicted a global total of 35.5 million functions in bacteria and 3.2 million in fungi; of which only 0.02% and 0.14% are known today. Our approach highlights the necessity of novel and more sophisticated methods to unveil the entirety of rare functions to fully understand the involvement of the microbiome in ecosystem functioning. SIGNIFICANCE: The functionality of and within a microbial community is generally inferred based on the taxonomic annotation of the organism. However, our understanding of functional diversity and how it relates to taxonomy is still limited. Here we predict the total microbiome functionality in bacteria and fungi on Earth using known and annotated protein-coding sequences in species accumulation curves. Our estimates reveal that the majority of functionality (>99%) could be assigned to yet unknown and rare functions, highlighting that our current knowledge is incomplete and functional inference is thus lackluster.

Bacteria↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of Electron–Phonon Interaction on the Conductivity and Work Function of Epitaxial Graphene

In the context of the cluster model of epitaxial graphene, the condition for a stepwise change in the charge of carbon atoms under the action of graphene–substrate electron–phonon interaction and an external electric field is derived. Such charge transfer brings about corresponding steps of the static conductivity and work function of epitaxial graphene. Numerical estimates for the case of weak coupling of quasi-free graphene with metal and semiconductor substrates are given.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

A stochastic sampling approach to zircon eruption age interpretation

The accessory mineral zircon is widely used to constrain the timing of igneous processes such as magma crystallisation or eruption. However, zircon U-Pb ages record zircon crystallisation, which is not an instantaneous process. Zircon saturation calculations link zircon crystallisation, temperature, and melt fraction, allowing for the estimation of zircon crystallisation distributions as a function of time or temperature. Such distributions provide valuable prior information, enabling Bayesian estimates of magma eruption time and allowing for comparison of the relative accuracy of common weighted-mean and youngest-zircon age interpretations with synthetic datasets. We find that both traditional interpretations carry a risk of underestimating the uncertainty in eruption age; a low mean square of weighted deviates (MSWD) does not guarantee the accuracy of weighted-mean interpretations. In the absence of independent confirmation that crystallisation timescale is short relative to analytical uncertainties, a Bayesian approach frequently provides the most accurate results and is least likely to underestimate uncertainty. Finally, since U-Pb zircon studies now routinely resolve geological age dispersion due to increasing analytical precision, such considerations are increasingly critical to future progress in resolving rates and dates of Earth processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Galerkin finite element method for time-fractional stochastic diffusion equations

In this paper, Galerkin finite element method for solving the time-fractional stochastic diffusion equations with multiplicative noise is proposed and investigated. The pathwise regularity properties of solutions to the semidiscrete Galerkin approximations are demonstrated and the convergence of optimal rates are derived. And also we construct the fully discrete scheme which is based on the approximations of the Mittag–Leffler function and analyze the error estimates of convergence in L{sub 2}-norm space. Finally, numerical results are conducted to confirm our theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with BOSS DR11 and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

Here, we present a new measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Using 600 square degrees of overlapping sky area, we evaluate the mean pairwise baryon momentum associated with the positions of 50,000 bright galaxies in the BOSS DR11 Large Scale Structure catalog. A non-zero signal arises from the large-scale motions of halos containing the sample galaxies. The data fits an analytical signal model well, with the optical depth to microwave photon scattering as a free parameter determining the overall signal amplitude. We estimate the covariance matrix of the mean pairwise momentum as a function of galaxy separation, using microwave sky simulations, jackknife evaluation, and bootstrap estimates. The most conservative simulation-based errors give signal-to-noise estimates between 3.6 and 4.1 for varying galaxy luminosity cuts. We discuss how the other error determinations can lead to higher signal-to-noise values, and consider the impact of several possible systematic errors. Estimates of the optical depth from the average thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal at the sample galaxy positions are broadly consistent with those obtained from the mean pairwise momentum signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Building and exploring libraries of atomic defects in graphene: Scanning transmission electron and scanning tunneling microscopy study

The presence and configurations of defects are primary components determining materials functionality. Their population and distribution are often nonergodic and dependent on synthesis history, and therefore rarely amenable to direct theoretical prediction. Here, dynamic electron beam–induced transformations in Si deposited on a graphene monolayer are used to create libraries of possible Si and carbon vacancy defects. Deep learning networks are developed for automated image analysis and recognition of the defects, creating a library of (meta) stable defect configurations. Density functional theory is used to estimate atomically resolved scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) signatures of the classified defects from the created library, allowing identification of several defect types across imaging platforms. This approach allows automatic creation of defect libraries in solids, exploring the metastable configurations always present in real materials, and correlative studies with other atomically resolved techniques, providing comprehensive insight into defect functionalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of high-order electron correlation effects in a model system for non-valence correlation-bound anions

The diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC), auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC), and equation-of-motion coupled cluster (EOM-CC) methods are used to calculate the electron binding energy (EBE) of the non-valence anion state of a model (H2O)4 cluster. Two geometries are considered, one at which the anion is unbound and the other at which it is bound in the Hartree–Fock (HF) approximation. It is demonstrated that DMC calculations can recover from the use of a HF trial wave function that has collapsed onto a discretized continuum solution, although larger EBEs are obtained when using a trial wave function for the anion that provides a more realistic description of the charge distribution and, hence, of the nodal surface. For the geometry at which the cluster has a non-valence correlation-bound anion, both the inclusion of triples in the EOM-CC method and the inclusion of supplemental diffuse d functions in the basis set are important. DMC calculations with suitable trial wave functions give EBE values in good agreement with our best estimate EOM-CC result. AFQMC using a trial wave function for the anion with a realistic electron density gives a value of the EBE nearly identical to the EOM-CC result when using the same basis set. For the geometry at which the anion is bound in the HF approximation, the inclusion of triple excitations in the EOM-CC calculations is much less important. The best estimate EOM-CC EBE value is in good agreement with the results of DMC calculations with appropriate trial wave functions.

Upadhyay, Shiv (ORCID:0000000285010501)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Network‐Based Methods for Ocean Surface Wave Measurement Using Submarine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

Two new data-driven models for estimating ocean surface waves from distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) submarine cable strain rate are developed using supervised machine learning on a 10-day data set collected offshore of Oliktok Point, Alaska. The new models were trained on target data from seafloor pressure moorings at three sites spaced evenly along 27.1 km of cable and were benchmarked against an empirical transfer function method previously used to estimate waves from DAS. A model which uses convolutional neural networks to transform 2-km frequency-wavenumber strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.15 vs. 0.41 m) and period prediction (0.29 vs. 0.37 s) when evaluated on a held-out test data set. When applied to a DAS data set collected on the same cable 2 years prior, the CNN-based model maintained similar significant wave height performance (RMSE = 0.23 m) relative to available satellite altimetry data. A two-hidden-layer, fully connected neural network which transforms 1-D strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra also outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.19 vs. 0.41 m), but does not generalize as well to the prior data. Regression-based machine learning is useful for estimating waves from DAS data when the pressure-strain relationship varies temporally and spatially across different wave conditions. Models can be applied to DAS data to measure waves with higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than traditional methods, which often measure waves only at a single point.

Davis, Jacob R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Long-Term Degradation of Adsorbents for Direct Air Capture by Ozonolysis

Porous adsorbents are a promising class of materials for the direct air capture of CO 2 (DAC). Practical implementation of adsorption-based DAC requires adsorbents that can be used for thousands of adsorption–desorption cycles without significant degradation. We examined the potential degradation of adsorbents by a mechanism that appears to have not been considered previously, namely, ozonolysis by trace levels of ozone from ambient air. We focused on amine-appended metal–organic frameworks, specifically amine-functionalized Mg 2 (dobpdc), as a representative DAC adsorbent. Estimates based on the number of amine sites in these adsorbents and the ozone concentration in air suggest that degradation by ozone may be relevant over thousands of adsorption–desorption cycles if reactions with adsorbed ozone are fast. We used density functional theory calculations to estimate reaction rates for amine groups and carbon–carbon double bonds in amine-functionalized Mg 2 (dobpdc).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Searches for correlation between UHECR events and high-energy gamma-ray Fermi-LAT data

The astrophysical sources responsible for ultra high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) continue to be one of the most intriguing mysteries in astrophysics. Here, we present a comprehensive search for correlations between high-energy (≳ 1 GeV) gamma-ray events from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and UHECRs (≳ 60 EeV) detected by the Telescope Array and the Pierre Auger Observatory. We perform two separate searches. First, we conduct a standard cross-correlation analysis between the arrival directions of 148 UHECRs and 360 gamma-ray sources in the Second Catalog of Hard Fermi-LAT sources (2FHL). Second, we search for a possible correlation between UHECR directions and unresolved Fermi-LAT gamma-ray emission. For the latter, we use three different methods: a stacking technique with both a model-dependent and model-independent background estimate, and a cross-correlation function analysis. We also test for statistically significant excesses in gamma rays from signal regions centered on Cen A and the Telescope Array hotspot. There was no significant correlation is found in any of the analyses performed, except a weak (≲ 2σ) hint of signal with the correlation function method on scales ~ 1°. Upper limits on the flux of possible power-law gamma-ray sources of UHECRs are derived.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A computationally efficient approach for calculating galaxytwo-point correlations

We developed a modification to the calculation of the two-point correlation function commonly used in the analysis of large-scale structure in cosmology. An estimator of the two-point correlation function is constructed by contrasting the observed distribution of galaxies with that of a uniformly populated random catalogue. The assumption that the distribution of random galaxies in redshift is independent of angular position allows us to replace pair-wise combinatorics with fast integration over probability maps. The new method significantly reduces the computation time while simultaneously increasing the precision of the calculation. Also, it only requires cosmological parameters at the last and least computationally expensive stage, which allows for faster exploration of the parameter space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗