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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
NASA NTRS1994

From neural-based object recognition toward microelectronic eyes

Engineering neural network systems are best known for their abilities to adapt to the changing characteristics of the surrounding environment by adjusting system parameter values during the learning process. Rapid advances in analog current-mode design techniques have made possible the implementation of major neural network functions in custom VLSI chips. An electrically programmable analog synapse cell with large dynamic range can be realized in a compact silicon area. New designs of the synapse cells, neurons, and analog processor are presented. A synapse cell based on Gilbert multiplier structure can perform the linear multiplication for back-propagation networks. A double differential-pair synapse cell can perform the Gaussian function for radial-basis network. The synapse cells can be biased in the strong inversion region for high-speed operation or biased in the subthreshold region for low-power operation. The voltage gain of the sigmoid-function neurons is externally adjustable which greatly facilitates the search of optimal solutions in certain networks. Various building blocks can be intelligently connected to form useful industrial applications. Efficient data communication is a key system-level design issue for large-scale networks. We also present analog neural processors based on perceptron architecture and Hopfield network for communication applications. Biologically inspired neural networks have played an important role towards the creation of powerful intelligent machines. Accuracy, limitations, and prospects of analog current-mode design of the biologically inspired vision processing chips and cellular neural network chips are key design issues.

Sheu, Bing J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel methodology for gamma-ray spectra dataset procurement over varying standoff distances and source activities

The adoption of machine learning approaches for gamma-ray spectroscopy has received considerable attention in the literature. Many studies have investigated the deployment of various algorithm architectures to a specific task. However, little attention has been afforded to the development of the datasets leveraged to train the models. Such training datasets typically span a set of environmental or detector parameters to encompass a problem space of interest to a user. Variations in these measurement parameters will also induce fluctuations in the detector response, including expected pile-up and ground scatter effects. Fundamental to this work is the understanding that 1) the underlying spectral shape varies as the measurement parameters change and 2) the statistical uncertainties associated with two spectra impact their level of similarity. While previous studies attribute some arbitrary discretization to the measurement parameters for the generation of their synthetic training data, this work introduces a principled methodology for efficient spectral-based discretization of a problem space. A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) respective spectral comparison measure and a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model are used to predict the spectral similarity across a range of measurement parameters. This innovative approach effectively showcased its capability by dividing a problem space, ranging from 5 cm to 100 cm standoff distances and 5 μCi–100 μCi of 137 Cs, into three unique combinations of measurement parameters. The findings from this work will aid in creating more robust datasets, which incorporate many possible measurement scenarios, reduce the number of required experimental test set measurements, and possibly enable experimental training data collection for gamma-ray spectroscopy.

data science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning approach for efficient multi-dimensional integration

Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dispersion-enhanced sequential batch sampling for adaptive contour estimation

In computer simulation and optimal design, sequential batch sampling offers an appealing way to iteratively stipulate optimal sampling points based upon existing selections and efficiently construct surrogate modeling. Nonetheless, the issue of near duplicates poses tremendous quandary for sequential learning. It refers to the situation that selected critical points cluster together in each sampling batch, which are individually but not collectively informative towards the optimal design. Near duplicates severely diminish the computational efficiency as they barely contribute extra information towards update of the surrogate. To address this issue, we impose a dispersion criterion on concurrent selection of sampling points, which essentially forces a sparse distribution of critical points in each batch, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in adaptive contour estimation. Specifically, we adopt Gaussian process surrogate to emulate the simulator, acquire variance reduction of the critical region from new sampling points as a dispersion criterion, and combine it with the modified expected improvement (EI) function for critical batch selection. The critical region here is the proximity of the contour of interest. This proposed approach is vindicated in numerical examples of a two-dimensional four-branch function, a four-dimensional function with a disjoint contour of interest and a time-delay dynamic system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PM 2.5 Concentrations over Major Metropolitan Regions Inferred from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements Using Machine Learning Regression

We use measurements of near-surface aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization acquired by four NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars (HSRLs) to develop a machine learning regression methodology to infer PM2.5 concentrations at the surface and aloft. These airborne HSRL measurements were acquired over major metropolitan regions in the United States and Asia during more than 170 flights since 2010. Hourly surface PM2.5 measurements from the EPA air quality system and similar networks in other countries acquired within 10 km and 15 minutes of these near-surface HSRL measurements are used to train models that compute PM2.5 concentrations from the HSRL measurements. We examine several regression methods and find that exponential Gaussian Process algorithms consistently give the best performance in terms of the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) errors and the highest correlations. Model performance varies significantly depending on various combinations of HSRL aerosol measurements (e.g., aerosol backscatter, extinction, depolarization, backscatter color ratios, lidar ratios, aerosol optical thickness) and retrievals (e.g., mixed layer height, aerosol type) used in the regressions. Models that use near-surface measurements of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties such as depolarization, backscatter color ratio, and lidar ratio typically give the best performance with RMS errors around 4 mg/m3 and correlation coefficients above 0.9. HSRL measurements were often acquired when the aircraft flew systematic “raster-scan” patterns for several hours over these cities. These flight patterns enabled measurements of the spatial, temporal, and vertical variabilities in the distributions of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties and allowed us to derive the corresponding variabilities in PM2.5 concentrations. We present examples of such variabilities over urban areas in the United States as well as Asia. We describe also how the distribution of surface PM2.5 varies with aerosol type and use these retrievals to examine model simulations of surface PM2.5 in these metropolitan regions. We also discuss how this methodology may be applied to measurements from satellite lidars such as CALIOP on CALIPSO and ATLID on EarthCARE.

lidar↗
DOE OSTI2023

A robust estimator of mutual information for deep learning interpretability

Abstract We develop the use of mutual information (MI), a well-established metric in information theory, to interpret the inner workings of deep learning (DL) models. To accurately estimate MI from a finite number of samples, we present GMM-MI (pronounced ‘Jimmie’), an algorithm based on Gaussian mixture models that can be applied to both discrete and continuous settings. GMM-MI is computationally efficient, robust to the choice of hyperparameters and provides the uncertainty on the MI estimate due to the finite sample size. We extensively validate GMM-MI on toy data for which the ground truth MI is known, comparing its performance against established MI estimators. We then demonstrate the use of our MI estimator in the context of representation learning, working with synthetic data and physical datasets describing highly non-linear processes. We train DL models to encode high-dimensional data within a meaningful compressed (latent) representation, and use GMM-MI to quantify both the level of disentanglement between the latent variables, and their association with relevant physical quantities, thus unlocking the interpretability of the latent representation. We make GMM-MI publicly available in this GitHub repository.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Physics-Informed CoKriging: A Gaussian-Process-Regression-Based Multifidelity Method for Data-Model Convergence

In this work, we propose a new Gaussian process regression (GPR)-based multifidelity method: physics-informed CoKriging (CoPhIK). In CoKriging-based multifidelity methods, the quantities of interest are modeled as linear combinations of multiple parameterized stationary Gaussian processes (GPs), and the hyperparameters of these GPs are estimated from data via optimization. In CoPhIK, we construct a GP representing low-fidelity data using physics-informed Kriging (PhIK), and model the discrepancy between low- and highfidelity data using a parameterized GP with hyperparameters identified via optimization. Our approach reduces the cost of optimization for inferring hyperparameters by incorporating partial physical knowledge. We prove that the physical constraints in the form of deterministic linear operators are satisfied up to an error bound. Furthermore, we combine CoPhIK with a greedy active learning algorithm for guiding the selection of additional observation locations. The eciency and accuracy of CoPhIK are demonstrated for reconstructing the partially observed modified Branin function, reconstructing the sparsely observed state of a steady state heat transport problem, and learning a conservative tracer distribution from sparse tracer concentration measurements.

Yang, Xiu↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gaussian mixture models as automated particle classifiers for fast neutron detectors

Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) is the task of classifying electronic pulse shapes for different particle types such as gamma rays and fast neutrons interacting in scintillators and read out by photo sensitive detectors. This field has been limited in its adoption of techniques found in the statistical learning community. Methods initially employed in the 1960s for analog electronic circuitry persist in the current PSD literature describing operations performed on digitized pulses, which are amenable to statistical rigor. Despite vast amounts of data collected at low energy levels, traditional PSD methods are unable to discriminate particles below a certain threshold. As such, in this work, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used as a clustering technique for fast neutron detection in the absence of labeled data. GMMs yield improvements spanning the energy spectrum in a desirably efficient, unsupervised fashion. An extension, the Dirichlet Process GMM, provides further flexibility and classification improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning approach for determining temperature-dependent bandgap of metal oxides utilizing Allen–Heine–Cardona theory and O’Donnell model parameterization

To evaluate the high temperature sensing properties of metal oxide and perovskite materials suitable for use in combustion environments, it is necessary to understand the temperature dependence of their bandgaps. Although such temperature-driven changes can be calculated via the Allen–Heine–Cardona (AHC) theory, which assesses electron–phonon coupling for the bandgap correction at given temperatures, this approach is computationally demanding. Another approach to predict bandgap temperature-dependence is the O’Donnell model, which uses analytical expressions with multiple fitting parameters that require bandgap information at 0 K. This work employs data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell model from a set of physical features. We use a sample of 54 metal oxides for which density functional theory has been performed to calculate the bandgap at 0 K, and the AHC calculations have been carried out to determine the shift in the bandgap at non-zero temperatures. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, the developed GPR model attempts to alleviate this issue by predicting the O'Donnell parameters purely from physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the very small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The method captures well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions of the O’Donnell parameters and, therefore, the bandgap as a function of temperature for any novel material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learned adaptive properties for mitigation of weight perturbations in embedded spiking networks

Recent years have seen an increased importance of neural network inference in edge-based scenarios, which impose size and power constraints requiring novel computing devices. These same edge scenarios may require operating over long periods of time, or exposure to extreme environments, resulting in a drift of neural network weights that cause degraded performance. In searching for ways to develop neural network approaches that perform robustly under these conditions, we propose a biologically-inspired mechanism for the dynamic adaptation of within-neuron parameters that is guided by a global context signal carrying information about perturbations and variability in incoming stimuli. Specifically, we demonstrate that adaptive voltage thresholds or neuronal time constants, when informed by a global context signal, can enable network-level mechanisms to recover from perturbed synaptic weights. Consistent with prior literature, the context-modulated approach is effective for recurrent, but not feedforward networks, by modulating network level dynamics. We demonstrate this approach successfully recovers performance in image classification tasks and spatiotemporal tracking tasks under idealized and Gaussian noise as well as for realistic perturbations from a memristive device when exposed to ionizing radiation. Finally, we discuss how this approach enables the design of robust and energy-efficient neuromorphic systems that perform well, even in resource-constrained scenarios with extreme environments such as edge processing.

context modulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗