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At least 397 records · Page 22

Eigenvector centrality for characterization of protein allosteric pathways

Determining the principal energy-transfer pathways responsible for allosteric communication in biomolecules remains challenging, partially due to the intrinsic complexity of the systems and the lack of effective characterization methods. In this work, we introduce the eigenvector centrality metric based on mutual information to elucidate allosteric mechanisms that regulate enzymatic activity. Moreover, we propose a strategy to characterize the range of correlations that underlie the allosteric processes. We use the V-type allosteric enzyme imidazole glycerol phosphate synthase (IGPS) to test the proposed methodology. The eigenvector centrality method identifies key amino acid residues of IGPS with high susceptibility to effector binding. The findings are validated by solution NMR measurements yielding important biological insights, including direct experimental evidence for interdomain motion, the central role played by helix h α 1 , and the short-range nature of correlations responsible for the allosteric mechanism. Beyond insights on IGPS allosteric pathways and the nature of residues that could be targeted by therapeutic drugs or site-directed mutagenesis, the reported findings demonstrate the eigenvector centrality analysis as a general cost-effective methodology to gain fundamental understanding of allosteric mechanisms at the molecular level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Socioeconomic and particulate air pollution correlates of heart disease risk

Highlights: • Heart disease risk varies with age, sex, smoking, income, education, and particulate (PM2.5) air pollution. • How these risk factors interact is unclear. • We examine correlates of self-reported heart disease risk in a large data set. • Income is negatively associated with both PM2.5 exposure and heart disease risk. • Income is an important confounder of air pollution-heart disease associations. • Nonparametric methods can quantify associations and suggest causal interpretations. How does risk of heart disease depend on age, sex, smoking, income, education, marital status, and outdoor concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)? We join data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance (BRFSS) System for years 2008–2012 to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data on county-specific concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to quantify associations among these variables and to explore possible causal interpretations. Low income is identified as a direct cause of increased heart disease risk in this data set. The effect depends on age and sex: it is most pronounced for men under age 70 and for women under age 80. Income is significantly associated with all of the other variables examined and confounds the association between PM2.5 and heart disease risk. This association is significant in regression models that exclude income, but not in regression models that include it, both in the data set as a whole and in the subset of observations with PM2.5 < 15 μg/m{sup 3}. Causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) models and non-parametric model ensemble partial dependence plots confirm that higher incomes reduce heart disease risk, consistent with previous observations of socioeconomic gradients in health risks. They support interpretation of this as a robust causal relation apparent in non-parametric analyses, and hence independent of any specific parametric modeling assumptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sampling-Based Motion Planning Algorithms for Replanning and Spatial Load Balancing

The common theme of this dissertation is sampling-based motion planning with the two key contributions being in the area of replanning and spatial load balancing for robotic systems. Here, we begin by recalling two sampling-based motion planners: the asymptotically optimal rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT*), and the asymptotically optimal probabilistic roadmap (PRM*). We also provide a brief background on collision cones and the Distributed Reactive Collision Avoidance (DRCA) algorithm. The next four chapters detail novel contributions for motion replanning in environments with unexpected static obstacles, for multi-agent collision avoidance, and spatial load balancing. First, we show improved performance of the RRT* when using the proposed Grandparent-Connection (GP) or Focused-Refinement (FR) algorithms. Next, the Goal Tree algorithm for replanning with unexpected static obstacles is detailed and proven to be asymptotically optimal. A multi-agent collision avoidance problem in obstacle environments is approached via the RRT*, leading to the novel Sampling-Based Collision Avoidance (SBCA) algorithm. The SBCA algorithm is proven to guarantee collision free trajectories for all of the agents, even when subject to uncertainties in the knowledge of the other agents’ positions and velocities. Given that a solution exists, we prove that livelocks and deadlock will lead to the cost to the goal being decreased. We introduce a new deconfliction maneuver that decreases the cost-to-come at each step. This new maneuver removes the possibility of livelocks and allows a result to be formed that proves convergence to the goal configurations. Finally, we present a limited range Graph-based Spatial Load Balancing (GSLB) algorithm which fairly divides a non-convex space among multiple agents that are subject to differential constraints and have a limited travel distance. The GSLB is proven to converge to a solution when maximizing the area covered by the agents. The analysis for each of the above mentioned algorithms is confirmed in simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Epi Archive: Automated Synthesis of Global Notifiable Disease Data

ObjectiveLANL has built software that automatically collects global notifiable disease data, synthesizes the data, and makes it available to humans and computers within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) as a novel data stream. These data have many applications including improving the prediction and early warning of disease events.IntroductionMost countries do not report national notifiable disease data in a machine-readable format. Data are often in the form of a file that contains text, tables and graphs summarizing weekly or monthly disease counts. This presents a problem when information is needed for more data intensive approaches to epidemiology, biosurveillance and public health.While most nations likely store incident data in a machine-readable format, governments are often hesitant to share data openly for a variety of reasons that include technical, political, economic, and motivational issues1.A survey conducted by LANL of notifiable disease data reporting in over fifty countries identified only a few websites that report data in a machine-readable format. The majority (>70%) produce reports as PDF files on a regular basis. The bulk of the PDF reports present data in a structured tabular format, while some report in natural language.The structure and format of PDF reports change often; this adds to the complexity of identifying and parsing the desired data. Not all websites publish in English, and it is common to find typos and clerical errors.LANL has developed a tool, Epi Archive, to collect global notifiable disease data automatically and continuously and make it uniform and readily accessible.MethodsWe conducted a survey of the national notifiable disease reporting systems notating how the data are reported and in what formats. We determined the minimal metadata that is required to contextualize incident counts properly, as well as optional metadata that is commonly found.The development of software to regularly ingest notifiable disease data and make it available involves three or four main steps: scraping, detecting, parsing and persisting.Scraping: we examine website design and determine reporting mechanisms for each country/website, as well as what varies across the reporting mechanisms. We then designed and wrote code to automate the downloading of the data for each country. We store all artifacts presented as files (PDF, XLSX, etc.) in their original form, along with appropriate metadata for parsing and data provenance.Detecting: This step is required when parsing structured non-machine-readable data such as tabular data in PDF files. We combined the Nurminen methodology of PDF table detection with in-house heuristics to find the desired data within PDF reports2.Parsing: We determined what to extract from each dataset and parsed these data into uniform data structures, correctly accommodating the variations in metadata (e.g., time interval definitions) and the various human languages.Persisting: We store the data in the Epi Archive database and make it available on the internet and through the BSVE. The data is persisted into a structured and normalized SQL database.ResultsThe Epi Archive tool currently contains national and/or subnational notifiable disease data from twenty nations. When a user accesses the Epi Archive site, they are prompted with four fields: country, subregion, disease of interest, and date duration. Upon form submission, a time series is generated from the users’ specifications. The generated graph can then be downloaded into a CSV file if a user is interested in performing personal analysis. Additionally, the data from Epi Archive can be reached through a REST API (Representational State Transfer Application Programming Interface).ConclusionsLANL, as part of a currently funded DTRA effort, is automatically and continually collecting global notifiable disease data. While 20 nations are in production, more are being brought online in the near future. These data are already being utilized and will have many applications including improving the prediction and early warning of disease events.References[1] van Panhuis WG, Paul P, Emerson C, et al. A systematic review of barriers to data sharing in public health. BMC Public Health. 2014. 14:1144. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1144[2] Nurminen, Anssi. "Algorithmic extraction of data in tables in PDF documents." (2013).

Khalsa, Hari S.↗

Speleogenesis, geometry, and topology of caves: A quantitative study of 3D karst conduits

Karst systems are hierarchically spatially organized three-dimensional (3D) networks of conduits behaving as drains for groundwater flow. Recently, geostatistical approaches proposed to generate karst networks from data and parameters stemming from analogous observed karst features. Other studies have qualitatively highlighted relationships between speleogenetic processes and cave patterns. However, few studies have been performed to quantitatively define these relationships. This paper reports a quantitative study of cave geometries and topologies that takes the underlying speleogenetic processes into account. In order to study the spatial organization of caves, a 3D numerical database was built from 26 caves, corresponding to 621 km of cumulative cave passages representative of the variety of karst network patterns. The database includes 3D speleological surveys for which the speleogenetic context is known, allowing the polygenic karst networks to be divided into 48 monogenic cave samples and classified into four cave patterns: vadose branchwork (VB), water-table cave (WTC), looping cave (LC), and angular maze (AM). Eight morphometric cave descriptors were calculated, four geometrical parameters (width-height ratio, tortuosity, curvature, and vertical index) and four topological ones (degree of node connectivity, α and γ graph indices, and ramification index) respectively. The results were validated by statistical analyses (Kruskal-Wallis test and PCA). The VB patterns are clearly distinct from AM ones and from a third group including WTC and LC. A quantitative database of cave morphology characteristics is provided, depending on their speleogenetic processes. These characteristics can be used to constrain and/or validate 3D geostatistical simulations. This study shows how important it is to relate the geometry and connectivity of cave networks to recharge and flow processes. Conversely, the approach developed here provides proxies to estimate the evolution of the vadose zone to epiphreatic and phreatic zones in limestones from the quantitative analysis of existing cave patterns.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

THE ANTICORRELATED NATURE OF THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ECLIPSE TIMING VARIATIONS FOR THE KEPLER CONTACT BINARIES

We report a study of the eclipse timing variations in contact binary systems, using long-cadence lightcurves from the Kepler archive. As a first step, observed minus calculated (O - C) curves were produced for both the primary and secondary eclipses of some 2000 Kepler binaries. We find {approx}390 short-period binaries with O - C curves that exhibit (1) random walk-like variations or quasi-periodicities, with typical amplitudes of {+-}200-300 s, and (2) anticorrelations between the primary and secondary eclipse timing variations. We present a detailed analysis and results for 32 of these binaries with orbital periods in the range of 0.35 {+-} 0.05 days. The anticorrelations observed in their O - C curves cannot be explained by a model involving mass transfer, which, among other things, requires implausibly high rates of {approx}0.01 M{sub Sun} yr{sup -1}. We show that the anticorrelated behavior, the amplitude of the O - C delays, and the overall random walk-like behavior can be explained by the presence of a starspot that is continuously visible around the orbit and slowly changes its longitude on timescales of weeks to months. The quasi-periods of {approx}50-200 days observed in the O - C curves suggest values for k, the coefficient of the latitude dependence of the stellar differential rotation, of {approx}0.003-0.013.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RhizoGrid Indexed Sorghum Rhizosphere Multi-Omics

PerCon SFA project data dentification of spatially resolved biomarkers of drought in Sorghum bicolor rhizosphere molecular-microbe interactions using a novel root cartography "RhizoGrid" system for sampling plants under drought and control conditions across 10 equally sized root zone environments (4 quadrants each). Each quadrant was sampled and processed for 16S amplicon, metabolomics, and X-ray computed tomography (XCT). Data download includes experimental metadata and results files for 16S rRNA sequence analysis of microbial community assembly (processed data files), liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) metabolomics analysis of microbial community root exudates (processed data files), X-ray computed tomography (XCT) spatial gradient analysis (raw and processed data files) of microbial community composition, and related computational modeling outputs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technology in Power System Applications

The primary purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the advancement in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) technologies and their applications in power systems. It offers a foundation for understanding the transformative role of AI/ML in power systems and aims to stimulate further research and development in this area. This report begins with a historical perspective of AI/ML technologies, then explores their advancement to today’s prominence. The document highlights key contributors to the success of AI/ML technologies, including increased computational power, greater data availability, innovative algorithms, and advanced tools. It further introduces various AI/ML techniques, including supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, graph neural networks, and generative AI. It also emphasizes the critical importance of ensuring the safety, security, and trustworthiness of these AI/ML techniques within this sector. The report reviews the recent representative advancements in various power system applications enhanced by AI/ML techniques, underscoring key developments and their transformative impact as evidenced by numerous studies. It also explores both the opportunities and challenges associated with the application of AI/ML technologies to improve power system applications. While the report extensively covers AI/ML applications in power systems, focusing primarily on the technical and operational aspects, it may not thoroughly explore the sociopolitical, economic, and broader regulatory implications of AI/ML integration in power systems. AI/ML techniques hold significant potential for enhancing power system applications; however, they are not omnipotent. It is crucial to acknowledge their limitations and understand that they may not be able to address all challenges in the power system domain. Various factors must be considered that influence the implementation, adoption, and effectiveness of AI/ML solutions, including but not limited to safety, security, transparency, and trustworthiness. Additionally, the incorporation of advanced human–machine interfaces is essential, as it enables humans to validate the effectiveness of AI/ML solutions while remaining actively engaged, fostering trust in AI/ML deployment. Finally, the report summarizes AI/ML research activities supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) through the Advanced Grid Modeling (AGM) program. The work aligns with the interests and mission of DOE-OE AGM, with the report serving as a resource for identifying existing progress and for pinpointing future applications within AI/ML that need further exploration and support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Acoustic Emission signal acquired by the microphones placed in the CABRI test device along the fourteen last R.I.A. experiments: an example of reproducible research in nuclear science

The CABRI facility is an experimental nuclear reactor of the French Atomic Energy Commission. It is located at the Cadarache Research Centre in southern France and it is designed to act as a support to the French nuclear infrastructure. The purpose of the new testing programme termed, 'CABRI International Programme' (CIP) is to study the behaviour of PWR-type fuel rods at high burnup, equipped with an 'advanced' cladding, under Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions (such as the scenario of a control rod ejection). Within the framework of this programme, piloted and funded by the French Institute of Nuclear Radioprotection and Safety (IRSN), ten tests are to be conducted with a frequency of two tests per year. The LPRE laboratory of the CEA which is in charge of the Preparation, realisation and breakdown of the test results studies the possibility to set up a new test analysis based on the processing of signals coming from sensors placed within the test equipment. During the experimental phase, the behaviour of the fuel element generates acoustic waves which can be detected by two microphones placed upstream and downstream of the test device. Studies showed the interest to realize temporal and spectral analyses on these signals by showing the existence of signatures which can be correlated with physical phenomena as the rod failure or the test shutdown (i.e. scram). The work presented in this article results from the will to consolidate these studies. Since the main phenomenon to be tracked is the fuel rod failure, the aim would be to highlight specific events which would have been precursors of the rod failure in order to use in the future these signals for further interpretation. Such an antecedent works resumption leads to a better understanding of the experimental needs and constitutes a good initial state to prepare the new very fast digital data acquisition systems. Although all the raw data are accessible in the form of text files, analyses and graphics representations were not straightforward to reproduce from the ancient studies since that, on one hand, people who were in charge of the original work left the laboratory and on the other hand because it is not easy when the time passes, even with our own work, to be able to remember the steps of data manipulations and the exact setup: - During the ancient experiments the use of analog data acquisition systems required to digitize tapes to be able to realize computer treatments. That had had for consequence to lose the initial dating. This one must be correctly edited to do temporal comparisons. - Analyses require functions for calculations whose parameters has to be well-known to reach the same results. We thus wished to manage our workflow in the idea that it can be easily reproducible on all the experiments. The object of the work presented in this article was to put in practice this strong bind between the data, treatments and generation of the document in order not to hesitate to do the iteration principle in action. We do not have to be afraid by the data driven analyses. According to the philosophy of the literate programming, the text of the technical document is woven with the computer code that produces all the printed output as tables, graphs for the study eliminating hence the unrealistic cut and paste. This difficulty is not specific to the nuclear domain. For many years, researchers have been worked out solutions to this mundane issue. And, presently, new technologies and high-level programming languages offer us actual answers. We will firstly present the tools applied in our laboratory to implement this workflow, then we will describe the global perception carried out to continue the study of the Acoustic Emission signals recorded by the two microphones during the fourteen last CABRI R.I.A. test.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Flow-Channel Analysis for the Mars Hopper

The Mars Hopper is an exploratory vehicle designed to fly on Mars using carbon dioxide from the Martian atmosphere as a rocket propellant. The propellent gasses are thermally heated while traversing a radioisotope ther- mal rocket (RTR) engine’s core. This core is comprised of a radioisotope surrounded by a heat capacitive material interspersed with tubes for the propellant to travel through. These tubes, or flow channels, can be manu- factured in various cross-sectional shapes such as a special four-point star or the traditional circle. Analytical heat transfer and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) anal- yses were performed using flow channels with either a circle or a star cross- sectional shape. The nominal total inlet pressure was specified at 2,805,000 Pa; and the outlet pressure was set to 2,785,000 Pa. The CO2 inlet tem- perature was 300 K; and the channel wall was 1200 K. The steady-state CFD simulations computed the smooth-walled star shape’s outlet temper- ature to be 959 K on the finest mesh. The smooth-walled circle’s outlet temperature was 902 K. A circle with a surface roughness specification at 0.01 mm gave 946 K and at 0.1 mm yielded 989 K. The The effects of a slightly varied inlet pressure were also examined. The analytical calculations were based on the mass flow rates computed in the CFD simulations and provided significantly higher outlet temperature results while displaying the same comparison trends. Research relating to the flow channel heat transfer studies was also done. Mathematical methods to geometrically match the cross-sectional areas of the circle and star, along with a square and equilateral triangle, were derived. A Wolfram Mathematica 8 module was programmed to analyze CFD results using Richardson Extrapolation and calculate the grid convergence index (GCI). A Mathematica notebook, also composed, computes and graphs the bulk mean temperature along a flow channel’s length while the user dynam- ically provides the input variables, allowing their effects on the temperature to be more easily observed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Illuminating the pathways to carbon liberation: a systems approach to characterizing the consequential unknowns of carbon transformation and loss from thawing permafrost peatlands (Final Report)

The IsoGenie3 Project delivered new systems-level insights into carbon cycling in thawing permafrost landscapes, with an emphasis on methane and carbon dioxide emissions. From >200 samples from the site collected over a decade, co-analyzed for geochemistry and microbiology, the team recovered ~1,500 assembled microbial genomes and ~1,900 viral population genomes, revealing appreciable genetic novelty - from a new highly abundant bacterial phylum, to novel methane consumers and their activities, to rampant viral novelty. IsoGenie3 linked these organisms to carbon compound transformations (which define the cycling of organic matter in soils, and the loss of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane), and saw that the microbes at each stage of permafrost thaw had different genetic potential to degrade categories of compounds, expressed that genetic potential differently, and actually transformed carbon compounds into greenhouse gases in different ways. IsoGenie 3 identified that some of the thaw-stage differences were due to plant-microbiome relationships; the plant species across the thaw gradient contributed different carbon compounds into the soil, and hosted distinct microbiota (differing among parts of plants as well as species). Lastly, microbes in the saturated post-thaw conditions appeared likely to contribute to the mobilization and toxification of mercury released during thaw. In parallel with ongoing field sampling and analysis, hypotheses arising from field observations were tested via lab incubation experiments. When communities are taken out of their native habitats, they behave differently, and the team first rigorously quantified the magnitude of this effect on microbiome composition and functional capacity, organic matter composition, and gas production; overall the main system processes were maintained in the lab incubations under the conditions tested. Further, the microbial data could inform geochemical reaction network models of those processes. Then, the team ran experiments with additions of compounds, varying temperature, and “live” vs. “dead” peat (the latter having been gamma irradiated, with a few additional variants to control for methodological artifacts). From these, we (a) determined the importance of plant-derived soluble phenolic compounds in bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance of organic matter, and carbon gas emissions skewed to carbon dioxide; (b) proposed an abiotic ‘tanning’ mechanism, which could contribute to Sphagnum’s inhibitory effect on anaerobic decomposition through alteration of N availability. IsoGenie3 illuminated longer-term and landscape-scale interactions of permafrost thaw and carbon cycling, advancing knowledge of the drivers of methane dynamics not only across in the permafrost-associated peatland (where hydrology and plant communities dictate microbiomes) but also their interconnected lakes (where sediment carbon quality and resident microbiota are determined by position within lake, and lake features). By leveraging observations of site methane dynamics extending well before this project, the team was able to construct a 44-year portrait of the interplay of permafrost thaw, hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and carbon gas emissions, and the doubling of the fully-thawed fens over this time. From the detailed study of this focal site, IsoGenie3 also aimed to improve model representation of these kinds of sites and processes. To improve predictions of methane transformations, we incorporated acetate and isotope dynamics into the ‘DNDC’ biogeochemistry model. In addition, recovered genomes were grouped into ‘functional groups’, i.e. the genomes that perform a specific function of interest, then used to parameterize maximum growth rate and optimum growth temperature (via signatures in their sequence composition) for the BioCrunch model. The BioCrunch model was then in turn used to test the impact of increasing functional resolution of the microbes, on the carbon gas emissions. Lastly for modeling, the ecosys model was parameterized from the microbial and other data, and used to evaluate drivers of e.g. change in methane emissions. Finally, this project also led to the development of a range of new methods and tools, a new metric of organic matter decomposability, as well as a graph-database solution to multidisciplinary data storage and querying. This project’s ongoing analyses at our focal site also contributed to broader advancements in understanding elements of genetic plasticity and methane metabolism, climate change microbiology and community assembly, global peatland geochemistry and Arctic lakes’ roles in climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0.77), mean heart dose (0.69), and a pre-to-midtreatment change in ACE (0.66). When RP prediction was made only with pretreatment information, the AUC ranged from 0.76 to 0.81 depending on the ensemble size. Bootstrap validation of graph features in the ensemble quantified confidence of association between variables in the graphs where ten interactions were statistically significant. Conclusions: The presented BN methodology provides the flexibility to model hierarchical interactions between RP covariates, which is applied to probabilistic inference on RP. The authors’ preliminary results demonstrate that such framework combined with an ensemble method can possibly improve prediction of RP under real-life clinical circumstances such as missing data or treatment plan adaptation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen bond arrangements in (H 2 O) 20, 24, 28 clathrate hydrate cages: Optimization and many-body analysis

Here we provide a detailed study of hydrogen bonding arrangements, relative stability, residual entropy, and an analysis of the many-body effects in the (H 2 O) 20 (D-cage), (H 2 O) 24 (T-cage), and (H 2 O) 28 (H-cage) hollow cages making up structures I (sI) and II (sII) of clathrate hydrate lattices. Based on the enumeration of the possible hydrogen bonding networks for a fixed oxygen atom scaffold, the residual entropy (S 0 ) of these three gas phase cages was estimated at 0.754 82, 0.754 44, and 0.754 17 · Nk b , where N is the number of molecules and k b is Boltzmann’s constant. A previously identified descriptor of enhanced stability based on the relative arrangement and connectivity of nearest-neighbor fragments on the polyhedral water cluster [strong-weak-effective-bond model] also applies to the larger hollow cages. The three cages contain a maximum of 7, 9, and 11 such preferable arrangements of trans nearest dimer pairs with one “free” OH bond on the donor molecule (t1d dimers). The Many-Body Expansion (MBE) up to the 4-body suggests that the many-body terms vary nearly linearly with the cluster binding energy. Using a hierarchical approach of screening the relative stability of networks starting from optimizations with the TIP4P, TTM2.1-F, and MB-pol classical potentials, subsequently refining at more accurate levels of electronic structure theory (DFT and MP2), and finally correcting for zero-point energy, we were able to identify a group of four low-lying isomers of the (H 2 O) 24 T-cage, two of which are antisymmetric and the other two form a pair of antipode configurations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Epi Archive: automated data collection of notifiable disease data

LANL has built a software program that automatically collects global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in files—and makes it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE) as a new data source. This will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications. Most countries do not report national notifiable disease data in a machine-readable format. Data are often in the form of a file that contains text, tables and graphs summarizing weekly or monthly disease counts. This presents a problem when information is needed for more data intensive approaches to epidemiology, biosurveillance and public health as exemplified by the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE).While most nations do likely store their data in a machine-readable format, the governments are often hesitant to share data openly for a variety of reasons that include technical, political, economic, and motivational issues. For example, an attempt by LANL to obtain a weekly version of openly available monthly data, reported by the Australian government, resulted in an onerous bureaucratic reply. The obstacles to obtaining data included: paperwork to request data from each of the Australian states and territories, a long delay to obtain data (up to 3 months) and extensive limitations on the data’s use that prohibit collaboration and sharing. This type of experience when attempting to contact public health departments or ministries of health for data is not uncommon. A survey conducted by LANL of notifiable disease data reporting in 52 countries identified only 10 as being machine-readable and 42 being reported in pdf files on a regular basis. Within the 42 nations that report in pdf files, 32 report in a structured, tabular format and10 in a non-structured way. As a result, LANL has developed a tool-Epi Archive (formerly known as EPIC)-to automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data and make it readily accessible. We conducted a survey of the national notifiable disease reporting systems notating how the data is reported in two important dimensions: date standards and case definitions. The development of software to regularly ingests notifiable disease data frand makes this data available involved four main steps scraping, extracting, parsing and persisting. For scraping: we would examine website designs and determine reporting mechanisms for each country/website as well as what varies across the reporting mechanisms. We then designed and wrote code to automate the downloading of report pdf files, for each country. We stored report pdfs along with appropriate metadata for extracting and parsing. For extracting: we developed software that can extract notifiable disease data presented in tabular form from a pdf file. We combined the methodology of figure placement detection with the in-house developed table extraction and annotation heuristics. For parsing: we determined what to extract from each pdf dataset from the survey conducted. We then parsed the extracted data into uniform data structures correctly accommodating the dimensions surveyed and the various human languages. This task involved ingesting notifiable disease data in many disparate formats extracted from pdf files and coalescing the data into a standardized format. For persisting: We then store the data in the Epi Archive PostgreSQL database and make it available through the BSVE. The EpiArchive tool currently contains subnational notifiable disease data from 10 nations. When a user accesses the EpiArchive site, they are prompted with four fields: country, region, disease, and date duration. These fields allow the user to specify the location(down to the state level), the disease of interest, and the duration of interest. Upon form submission, a time series is generated from the users’ specifications. The generated time series can then be downloaded into a csv file if a user is interested in performing personal analysis. Additionally, the data from EpiArchive can be reached through an API. LANL as part of a currently funded DTRA effort so that it will automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in pdf files—and make it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) as a new data source. This will provide data to analytics and users that will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling the functional dark matter through global metagenomics

Metagenomes encode an enormous diversity of proteins, reflecting a multiplicity of functions and activities1,2. Exploration of this vast sequence space has been limited to a comparative analysis against reference microbial genomes and protein families derived from those genomes. Here, to examine the scale of yet untapped functional diversity beyond what is currently possible through the lens of reference genomes, we develop a computational approach to generate reference-free protein families from the sequence space in metagenomes. We analyse 26,931 metagenomes and identify 1.17 billion protein sequences longer than 35 amino acids with no similarity to any sequences from 102,491 reference genomes or the Pfam database3. Using massively parallel graph-based clustering, we group these proteins into 106,198 novel sequence clusters with more than 100 members, doubling the number of protein families obtained from the reference genomes clustered using the same approach. We annotate these families on the basis of their taxonomic, habitat, geographical and gene neighbourhood distributions and, where sufficient sequence diversity is available, predict protein three-dimensional models, revealing novel structures. Overall, our results uncover an enormously diverse functional space, highlighting the importance of further exploring the microbial functional dark matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗